NFC Final Playoff Picture

[Hawkpower]

Who takes the division if we end up in a tie with the whiners?

Almost certainly the Niners. Because the Niners have beaten better teams (SoV tie break) Edit: However, if we wind up tied in overall record AND we beat San Fran in week 17, then Seattle takes the division because of the head to head tiebreak.

So in regards to the division only, we could theoretically lose to the Cards but beat the Niners in week 17 and take the tiebreaker....

If it wasnt for seeding, and since the Rams play the Niners on Saturday, it would almost be tempting to rest some guys vs the Cards if the Niners were to win Saturday night.

Almost tempting. But seeding, etc.

 

[Avisday1]

Who takes the division if we end up in a tie with the whiners?

Almost certainly the Niners. Because the Niners have beaten better teams (SoV tie break) Edit: However, if we wind up tied in overall record AND we beat San Fran in week 17, then Seattle takes the division because of the head to head tiebreak.

A tied overall record and a Week 17 tie would give Seattle the division as well.

 

[Polaris]

Who takes the division if we end up in a tie with the whiners?

Almost certainly the Niners. Because the Niners have beaten better teams (SoV tie break) Edit: However, if we wind up tied in overall record AND we beat San Fran in week 17, then Seattle takes the division because of the head to head tiebreak.

A tied overall record and a Week 17 tie would give Seattle the division as well.

True. That's because Seattle would own the head to head tiebreak with a 1-0-1 vs San Fran.

 

[lukerguy]

49ers are going down to the Falcons this week in a shocker. Atlanta has been playing well since Quinn's job is on the line the last few weeks. 49ers are banged up.

I don't post often but I felt really confident this was going to happen. Go Hawks.

You called it, bro. Nice work.

Thank you!

 

[RolandDeschain]

Why do we care if the Rams beat the 49ers? If we don't beat them week 17 they will get the division. I guess it would allow us to lay a stinker against Carolina or AZ

Because watching the 49ers lose feels good, and the Rams aren't a potential threat to win the division over us.

Duh.

 

[JerHawk81]

I'm playing around with the ESPN engine and getting different results. According to that, if we win and SF lose next week, we win the division regardless of who wins in SF vs SEA. That is because we seem to win the tiebreaker of won/loss in common games vs SF. I think that in all other week 16 scenarios, whoever wins in week 17 wins the division.

Also, we could still end 6th seed if we lose out and Minn wins out.

 

[Polaris]

I'm playing around with the ESPN engine and getting different results. According to that, if we win and SF lose next week, we win the division regardless of who wins in SF vs SEA. That is because we seem to win the tiebreaker of won/loss in common games vs SF. I think that in all other week 16 scenarios, whoever wins in week 17 wins the division.

The ESPN Playoff Machine is dodgy when it comes to SoV and SoS tiebreaks. I had to go back and do it by hand. Basically San Fran currently leads in SoV and we lead in SoS. For SoV, we need to look at the games we won and San Fran didn't and vice versa. That means Atlanta, Minnesota, and Philadelphia for us vs New Orleans, Washington, and Green Bay for San Francisco. Whichever has the better W-L gets the SoV. Either way it won't be determined until week 17.

Also, we could still end 6th seed if we lose out and Minn wins out.

If that happens Minn wins the NFC North because they would have to beat Green Bay and then Minn would own the tie break. That means San Fran and Seattle are locked in the #5 seed because both Seattle and San Fran beat Green Bay on any possible tie break.

 

[seedhawk]

As a Hawk fan this might come across as a bit weird but, it is theoretically possible that 5 teams in the NFC finish with identical 12-4 records. Depending on who beats who, the playoff implications magnify. Can anyone remember any year when this could have happened?

And, because of the rules, it would send a 12-4 team on the road to play a playoff game against an either 8-8 or 9-7 Cowboy or Eagles team.

 

[Polaris]

As a Hawk fan this might come across as a bit weird but, it is theoretically possible that 5 teams in the NFC finish with identical 12-4 records. Depending on who beats who, the playoff implications magnify. Can anyone remember any year when this could have happened?

And, because of the rules, it would send a 12-4 team on the road to play a playoff game against an either 8-8 or 9-7 Cowboy or Eagles team.

I can't remember a year when any conference has been so top-heavy. It's looking like it will take at least 10 and likely 11 wins in the NFC just to be a wild card.

 

[Seahawkfan80]

If Minney loses out and Rams win out, who gets the bid for the last seed? and how?

 

[Polaris]

For all those keeping track of SoV between Seattle and San Fran here are the current numbers:

For Seattle this is the sum of Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Atlanta: 22-20
For San Fran this is the sum of Green Bay, Washington, and New Orleans: 24-17 [This may go up to 25-17 if
New Orleans wins tonight]

 

[Polaris]

If Minney loses out and Rams win out, who gets the bid for the last seed? and how?

The Rams get the last seed. That's because if the Rams win the last two, their conference record would improve to 8-4 while if Minny loses the last two, their conference record becomes 7-5. Rams get the tiebreak.

 

[balakoth]

The Playoff Machine is fun.

Though according to the playing around.. if GB drops a game for whatever reason we can't get higher than 2nd seed if NO wins out .. bleh.

 

[andyh64000]

Per the original post, I think the Hawks are not going to win the SOV tiebreaker over SF. I did the math, and I think SF will hold either a 2 or a 3 game lead (3 if the Saints win tomorrow) in SOV after this week over the Hawks.

So I think it's very unlikely the Hawks will make up that many games in SOV the last 2 weeks and be able to win the division at 12-4 if they beat AZ and lose to SF. possible, but very unlikely.

I think the Hawks are going to need to beat SF to win the West. I mean, the 49ers are probably not losing to the Rams on Saturday night anyway, but even if they do I do not think the Hawks can realistically clinch the West with just a win over Arizona.

The ESPN playoff machine must be wrong then because every different way I do it if the 49ers lose to the Rams we win the division regardless of week 17.

 

[Polaris]

Per the original post, I think the Hawks are not going to win the SOV tiebreaker over SF. I did the math, and I think SF will hold either a 2 or a 3 game lead (3 if the Saints win tomorrow) in SOV after this week over the Hawks.

So I think it's very unlikely the Hawks will make up that many games in SOV the last 2 weeks and be able to win the division at 12-4 if they beat AZ and lose to SF. possible, but very unlikely.

I think the Hawks are going to need to beat SF to win the West. I mean, the 49ers are probably not losing to the Rams on Saturday night anyway, but even if they do I do not think the Hawks can realistically clinch the West with just a win over Arizona.

The ESPN playoff machine must be wrong then because every different way I do it if the 49ers lose to the Rams we win the division regardless of week 17.

The ESPN Playoff Machine gets dodgy when you get to SoV and SoS tiebreakers. Don't trust it when the tiebreaks get that deep.

 

[JonRud]

The ESPN playoff machine is wrong. they need a new programming team over there.

 

[QuahHawk]

Would love to see it end up like this

1.Seattle
2. GB
3. New Orleans
4. Dal/Phi
5. SF
6. Min

WC
NO>Min
SF>Dal/Phi

DIV
Sea>SF
NO>GB

NFCCG
SEA>NO

 

[JonRud]

Would love to see it end up like this

1.Seattle
2. GB
3. New Orleans
4. Dal/Phi
5. SF
6. Min

WC
NO>Min
SF>Dal/Phi

DIV
Sea>SF
NO>GB

NFCCG
SEA>NO

with your seedings, my preference is

WC
Min > NO
Dal/Phi > SF

DIV
Sea > Min
Dal/Phi > GB

NFCCG
Sea > Dal/Phi

 

[theseahawkguy]

Now is this possible as the nfl playoff machine never is too accurate

Hawks beat Arizona. 49ers lose, Packers lose. Number 2 seed clinched no need to play diggs and others next week?

 

[theseahawkguy]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine