Is It Bad Luck To Dream?

[themunn]

the only worry I have is that I can't remember the last time a team considered the pre-season favourites actually won it all.

I think you have to go back to the last time the Pats won, though arguably the Colts in 06.
Still, it seems that generally superbowl winners have been unexpected and (IMO) not ACTUALLY the best team over the course of the year for some time now

 

[pinksheets]

the only worry I have is that I can't remember the last time a team considered the pre-season favourites actually won it all.

I think you have to go back to the last time the Pats won, though arguably the Colts in 06.
Still, it seems that generally superbowl winners have been unexpected and (IMO) not ACTUALLY the best team over the course of the year for some time now

That's just because there are far too many variables at play. Nobody can predict injuries, how the teams on the schedule actually turn out for the season, etc. etc. Preseason predictions are based on limited information, it's "who has the best odds right now?" and I'd give the Seahawks that, but I don't think there's any cause and effect relationship between being called Superbowl favorites and how the season actually turns out.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Pick any San Francisco team in the late 80's or early 90's or any Cowboy team also in this middle 90's. They even won every once in a while right? Most all were favored from the start.

 

[bestfightstory]

Don't leave early.

 

[grizbob]

On my way to Vegas as we speak. If we start seeing bad things happen, you know who to blame :180670:

 

[themunn]

Pick any San Francisco team in the late 80's or early 90's or any Cowboy team also in this middle 90's. They even won every once in a while right? Most all were favored from the start.

Yes, but that's pre-salary cap - you're never going to have a team with that level of talent across the board (above and beyond the rest of the league)

the only worry I have is that I can't remember the last time a team considered the pre-season favourites actually won it all.

I think you have to go back to the last time the Pats won, though arguably the Colts in 06.
Still, it seems that generally superbowl winners have been unexpected and (IMO) not ACTUALLY the best team over the course of the year for some time now

That's just because there are far too many variables at play. Nobody can predict injuries, how the teams on the schedule actually turn out for the season, etc. etc. Preseason predictions are based on limited information, it's "who has the best odds right now?" and I'd give the Seahawks that, but I don't think there's any cause and effect relationship between being called Superbowl favorites and how the season actually turns out.

No, you're right I don't think there's causation, just correlation. The best team on the day wins, not necessarily the best team.

 

[onanygivensunday]

Last time I checked the odds Seattle was not the favorite... SF was, which is okay in my book.

Seattle, SF, Denver and NE were all bunched together around 8-1. SF was 7-1.

 

[Sarlacc83]

If this was because we'd gone on a huge spending spree to bolster a 6-10 team led by a lame duck coach or a flailing GM, I'd be worried. But sometimes, as I think is the case now, you can see all of the plotlines coming together to the inevitable conclusion.

And I also agree with Aros' second post about PTSD. Getting your hopes up means potentially having them dashed, or in this case, devastated.

 

[Barthawk]

I am enjoying the heck out of this.. we are good and will be for a good while.. this is great

 

[sutz]

Hey, Todd....weren't you the guy who posted how the Seahawks would be jinxed because some guy offed himself by jumping off the stadium while it was under construction?

Are you thinking we paid that karma debt by now?

 

[Hawks46]

Im scared to death. Bottom line. Football is a game of inches for a reason. The best teams can fall the hardest.

If things were to collapse, I know life would go on. But the reality is, this will be one of the harder falls to handle. The hype has created an expectation in each of our minds whether we like it or not.

Quick edit: That fear though is what creates the moments that last forever. Where a losing season would hurt, meeting the
expectations would be the most thrilling victory

I totally agree. It's not like I'm afraid of jinxing the team; logically and emotionally I know that there's nothing I can really do (short of attending a game in person and lending my voice to the 12th man collective chaos) to effect how the team will do.

Historically as a Seahawks fan, it just seems like whenever you have high expectations for the team, they flop. Whenever you have no expectations for the team, they pleasantly surprise you and gut out some unexpected success. It's always building us up to tear us down. We've also had long stretches where we were abjectly miserable, thus tempering expectations even more.

I have more hope and excitement for this team than any team I can ever remember (this includes the 84 and 05 teams). In the back of my mind, I'm waiting for us to totally flop, even though logically I know this is the most talented across the board, deep, and mentally toughest team we've ever had...captained by what looks to be the most dynamic and talented QB we've ever had.

We've almost never had great offenses coupled with great defenses. We've managed plenty of great offenses, and great defenses but rarely together. We have that now....added to the above positives, and I think we're set.

The downside to this is that anything less than a SB will be a disappointment to me. Maybe not a win, but an appearance. Odds are, I'll be disappointed....Superbowls are tough to come by.

 

[loafoftatupu]

Wilson won't allow the kool-aid to spoil, so drink up and get ready for the ride.

As long as RW is playing, this thing will be a done deal. As Seahawk fans, we have never went into a season with a team like this, ever.

We know how good they are, while other fans are hiding behind their dreams of Seahawk injuries, paper championships and suspension, we know they are worried about the Seahawk F5 tornado touching down in a stadium near you.

So dream away, this is not your Holmy's Seahawks anymore.

 

[MidwestHawker]

Jinxes based on totally unrelated occurrences that never affect a relevant party's mindset or performance are of course not a real thing.

Things like the hype causing the team to fail could happen because that's more tangible and real, but I don't expect that to happen.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Toss superstition out the freakin' window.

 

[NinerBuff]

Seattle looks to be a definite contender for the SB with SF, NE, DEN, and ATL. In order to win the SB, you need...

1) a franchise QB
2) a great front office, including head coach
3) a good / great o-line
4) a consistent pass rush
5) BE LUCKY

You could make the argument that SEA and SF hit on all of those, but again, you have to be lucky. After all, if it weren't for a bone-headed play by Moore in DEN, DEN would have hosted the AFC championship and could very well have won it all. If Matt Ryan doesn't come back against you guys, who knows what would have happened. Navarro Bowman could have been called for PI against ATL, and ATL could have been in the Super Bowl, and Crabtree could have been gotten the PI call in the SB and SF could have won.

Not only do you need all the right ingredients, you need to be lucky and have a lot of the breaks fall your way. In the NBA, the best team wins the series because there are 7 games, but in a single elimination format, you absolutely need luck as well.

 

[RolandDeschain]

IMO, the "elite SB contender" tier is only SF, Seattle, and NE. Denver's going to miss losing Elvis Dumervil more than they anticipate, and Welker's getting old, though he still played excellent ball in 2012; but he also had a good rapport built up with Brady.

Also, both Atlanta and Denver benefitted greatly during the regular season by feasting on hapless teddy bear opponents that scared nobody. Remember when they went down 24-0 against the Chargers in the first half? They managed to win that game, but geez. You can't do that against a mediocre opponent and call yourselves elite. We went down by 20 in the first half to the Falcons, but the Falcons have made the playoffs the past three years, and likely will continue to do so for a while.

 

[NinerBuff]

IMO, the "elite SB contender" tier is only SF, Seattle, and NE. Denver's going to miss losing Elvis Dumervil more than they anticipate, and Welker's getting old, though he still played excellent ball in 2012; but he also had a good rapport built up with Brady.

Also, both Atlanta and Denver benefitted greatly during the regular season by feasting on hapless teddy bear opponents that scared nobody. Remember when they went down 24-0 against the Chargers in the first half? They managed to win that game, but geez. You can't do that against a mediocre opponent and call yourselves elite. We went down by 20 in the first half to the Falcons, but the Falcons have made the playoffs the past three years, and likely will continue to do so for a while.

You may be right about Dumervil, but I doubt the Falcons really take a step back. The two headed beast of Jones and White is really tough for any team. And Ryan is very consistent. I guess Jackson is the wildcard. If has any gas in the tank, they could really give both SF and SEA a run for their money.

Of all the NFC teams, SEA has the most to gain by getting home field (and by extension, all other teams gain by them not getting home field). I see Seattle as a contender if they travel, but I see them as the favorite if they're at home.