Geno Isn't the Guy. Sad to Say (Main)

[Appyhawk]

Looking at our remaining schedule Geno will HAVE to go on a tear for us to come out at the end above .500 for those games. Presently you can count on him to produce two turnovers per game. That is hard to overcome, even for a good team such as ours. My confidence level for a successful drive to come from behind for the win last week was not high, but Geno did it. That is a feather in his cap that doesn't have a lot of company, but it's a start and something he can build on. As is, Geno has reached his price point. There are no more pay raises in his future. OUR future may well depend on if we can keep a capable backup for Geno.

 

[rcaido]

To add to Fade's stats Geno has only 5 3+TD games his whole career. Wilson has 3 this "washed" season. Geno has never scored more then 3 TDs in one game.

 

[cymatica]

Fade said:
Geno Smith's Last 12 Games

65.68%
2758
6.43 AY/A
17 TDs
11 INTs
87.9 Passer Rating

172 yards rushing w/4.78 avg. 0 TDs

(Superior Unit Around Him)


"Washed Up" Wilson's Last 12 Games

64.53%
2579
7.29 AY/A
24 TDs
10 INTs
96.6 Passer Rating

329 yards rushing w/6.53 avg. 2 TDs

(Inferior Unit Around Him)


"GOAT" Mahomes Last 12 Games

69.84% (Andy Reed Screen Game)
3348 (Andy Reed Screen Game)
7.72 AY/A
23 TDs
9 INTs
100.8 Passer Rating

312 yards rushing w/6.24 avg. 2 TDs

(One of the Best O-Lines, HoF TE, Lacking at WR)



Dude. They're flipping out. It's hilarious.

Seattle is a better team with Geno considering the players acquired and cap used elsewhere

 

[cymatica]

Looking at our remaining schedule Geno will HAVE to go on a tear for us to come out at the end above .500 for those games. Presently you can count on him to produce two turnovers per game. That is hard to overcome, even for a good team such as ours.

The way the defense is playing, Geno doesn't have to light it up. He just has to be a good game manager and take what the defense gives him. Running the ball more would help.

 

[Fade]

You can't possibly be serious.

First) We have the formula for RawQBR, so we know exactly what it measures and how it functions. Here, Raw simply means that it's unadjusted. ESPN's QBR adjusts for the strength of the defense and game situation. For example, Seattle played the #1 pass defense in EPA, so Geno's QBR is adjusted to account for that.

Here's the RawQBR formula: RawQBR=g(AdjustedEPA/ActionPlays). The function notation is only for scaling, so we know exactly what's being measured.

Second) QBR uses adjusted EPA, which is, by definition, a QB stat, as it accounts for the pass type and depth of pass and whether the QB is under pressure.

Third) Do you have a source for "bad throw %"? Geno's not leading the league in TWP%.

This is where the stat nerds get into trouble.

That is subjective. Passer Rating is not.

EPA benefits QBs in better systems, with better offensive lines and weapons. Thus it's more valuable as overall offensive team strength stat including scheme. Do this exercise for me--Look up the best O-Lines in football and it will be paired with high QBR QBs whether you think those QBs are worthy of a high QBR or not.

Keapernick, a bad QB (great runner), was the poster child for QBR and how flawed it is. Sloppy footwork, no ability to read a defense, couldn't layer the football. Not a great decision maker, had a higher QBR than RW in those early years. Due to them scheming things up perfectly and mitigating his flaws, featuring the best O-Line in football. While Wilson was clearly the better player with the much higher passer rating and better traditional stats, but 32nd ranked O-Line and worse scheme, along with subjective "QBR weight" (even Raw is just glorified EPA), dragged down his QBR below Kaepernick.

Passer Rating is objective.

It's not an accident, that the highest rated passers of each era also happen to be the best QBs of each era. It's a list of HoF QBs.

Passer Rating is superior to QBR. Passer rating is flawed, but it is not subjective. It doesn't spit out a different number based on subjective rankings and situations.

TWP% going back to last season, not just this season.

 

[Fade]

Seattle is a better team with Geno considering the players acquired and cap used elsewhere

Of course. I'm not saying Seattle didn't ultimately make the correct decision. They did.

Wilson effed up and put himself into a worse situation. He did it to himself, and the Seahawks benefited greatly. Allowing themselves to reload very quickly.

They also smartly did the Geno contract in a way not to marry themselves to him if turns out to be 1-hit wonder. They just need Geno to play up to his contract, or get a lower cost alternative.

 

[hoxrox]

Geno has only 5 3+TD games his whole career. Wilson has 3 this "washed" season. Geno has never scored more then 3 TDs in one game.

This is not fantasy football. It's real team football.

Seattle still averages more PPG than Denver this season:



Team points are what matters at the end of the game, whether it's the RB running for a TD, or a QB passing for a TD.

The PPG would be even higher if not for redzone woes. Seattle is still number one in getting to the redzone. They just don't convert...

 

[knownone]

This is where the stat nerds get into trouble.

That is subjective. Passer Rating is not.

EPA benefits QBs in better systems, with better offensive lines and weapons. Thus it's more valuable as overall offensive team strength stat including scheme. Do this exercise for me--Look up the best O-Lines in football and it will be paired with high QBR QBs whether you think those QBs are worthy of a high QBR or not.

Keapernick, a bad QB (great runner), was the poster child for QBR and how flawed it is. Sloppy footwork, no ability to read a defense, couldn't layer the football. Not a great decision maker, had a higher QBR than RW in those early years. Due to them scheming things up perfectly and mitigating his flaws, featuring the best O-Line in football. While Wilson was clearly the better player with the much higher passer rating and better traditional stats, but 32nd ranked O-Line and worse scheme, along with subjective "QBR weight" (even Raw is just glorified EPA), dragged down his QBR below Kaepernick.

Passer Rating is objective.

It's not an accident, that the highest rated passers of each era also happen to be the best QBs of each era. It's a list of HoF QBs.

Passer Rating is superior to QBR. Passer rating is flawed, but it is not subjective. It doesn't spit out a different number based on subjective rankings and situations.

TWP% going back to last season, not just this season.

Back in reality: Both QBR and Passer Rating are objective measurements that measure efficiency. Is there subjectivity? Technically. But not in the way you're implying since passer rating is also technically subjective. So, let's clarify. EPA, SCR, and QBR are tools that provide insights. They are not definitive measures of QB performance. They provide useful information, and I'd argue that, combined with other metrics, they tell us much more about a QB play than passer rating and total TDs.

But that's just me.

 

[rcaido]

Case Keenum was the 2nd best QBR in 2017. 2018 Turdbsky was ranked 3rd. In 2015 Cam Newton the MVP wasn't even in the top 10 in QBR.

 

[knownone]

Case Keenum was the 2nd best QBR in 2017. 2018 Turdbsky was ranked 3rd. In 2015 Cam Newton the MVP wasn't even in the top 10 in QBR.

Sure, outliers are interesting. Here's the thing. Both Keenum and Tribuski had high passer ratings, as well. And Cam's QBR was 11 points above average. Similarly, the MVP is an entirely subjective award. So what's your point?

 

[Spin Doctor]

Sure, outliers are interesting. Here's the thing. Both Keenum and Tribuski had high passer ratings, as well. And Cam's QBR was 11 points above average. Similarly, the MVP is an entirely subjective award. So what's your point?

Like the MVP you cannot hold up the QBR as the end all be all of QB analysis. It hasn't done a great job quantifying QB play. It, like most things is an imperfect tool or measurement, especially without context.

 

[WarHawks]

But there is a chance he can get his head straight. A lot of the disagreement probably comes from the difference in perceived likelihood of that actually happening.

This. I don't disagree that qb's can markedly improve, but not usually 32 year old ones whose traits are already baked into their cake. I'm probably wrong and someone will gleefully tell me so and provide a page long statistical analysis of every older qb who suddenly became the next Brady. Sigh. I don't care. Either he will or he won't. If he does, great. If not, we turn the page. Let's enjoy the competition and not stress about it. It is supposed to be entertainment after all.

 

[knownone]

Like the MVP you cannot hold up the QBR as the end all be all of QB analysis. It hasn't done a great job quantifying QB play. It, like most things is an imperfect tool or measurement, especially without context.

Agreed.

As far as I can tell, no one is holding QBR up as the end all be all. The argument is whether or not it's trash. And that's in response to the claim that Wilson is better than Geno in nearly every category, which is patently false. Unfortunately, when metrics like QBR were highlighted, certain members attacked the metrics.

 

[rcaido]

This is how dumb QBR, i saw this in reddit and decided fact check it.

Zach Wilson in 2021 was 14/22 63.3% average 4.6 yards per pass and 103 yards passing 1TD no INT got 94.5 QBR
Joe Burrow same day was 37/42 80.4% average 11.4 per pass 525 yards, 4 TDs no INT got a 91.4 QBR

The current highest QBR stat of all time is Charlie Batch
Stat line is 12/17 186yards 3TDs 2Int, he got a perfect score 99.9 LOL

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

This. I don't disagree that qb's can markedly improve, but not usually 32 year old ones whose traits are already baked into their cake. I'm probably wrong and someone will gleefully tell me so and provide a page long statistical analysis of every older qb who suddenly became the next Brady. Sigh. I don't care. Either he will or he won't. If he does, great. If not, we turn the page. Let's enjoy the competition and not stress about it. It is supposed to be entertainment after all.

It sucks because i feel like this team is now in the SF window of just needing a QB to not turn the ball over.

If he plays like he did at the beginning of last season, this team is contending for a SB. If he keeps having turnover problems, probably going to be a frustrating rd 1 playoff loss.

 

[keasley45]

That's fair. I don't have a strong opinion on Denver or Wilson. So if he were free, I'd probably take him.

However, I don't think he's been better than Geno this season, and I wouldn't swap them if given the opportunity.

Wilson has been bad this year. The only thing that's keeping him looking respectable is Paytons scheming to cover his deficiencies. At one point, he was 3 for 8 for 58 yards ... but 2 tds thanks to the D flipping field position.

But apparently Payton is finished with him.

Wilson has stat padded better than Geno but hasnt played any better. He played some crappy teams and barely won. Wilson played better this past week but the Chiefs look over rated. Lets see how he does against the bills, browns amd lions in the upcoming schedule.

'Top Red zone' rated qb Russell wilson was 3 for 8 but ...2 tds in the first half against KC. Ineffective, entirely reliant on his defense to be in position for the scores. And he didn't muster a td after that. Just relied on his D to win. Payton pulled a page from Pete's playbook. It was brilliant. But Russ effective? No. Far from.

It's entirely why Payton is done with him.

Russell wilson year 12 sounds exactly like Russell Wilson in year 2.

But his supporters

 

[strohmin]

Wilson has been bad this year. The only thing that's keeping him looking respectable is Paytons scheming to cover his deficiencies. At one point, he was 3 for 8 for 58 yards ... but 2 tds thanks to the D flipping field position.

But apparently Payton is finished with him.

'Top Red zone' rated qb Russell wilson was 3 for 8 but ...2 tds in the first half against KC. Ineffective, entirely reliant on his defense to be in position for the scores. And he didn't muster a td after that. Just relied on his D to win. Payton pulled a page from Pete's playbook. It was brilliant. But Russ effective? No. Far from.

It's entirely why Payton is done with him.

Russell wilson year 12 sounds exactly like Russell Wilson in year 2.

But his supporters

I agree. The team looks exactly like a team from year 2 Wilson where they would be run heavy, play excellent defense and Wilson would make a few plays here and there. He had like a little over a 100 yards on like 20 attempts but had 3 tds. I dont know if Payton can be done with him because Wilson has a strong public backing and Payton cant get rid of him that easily. I mean look at how everyone besides Wilson is being blamed when they lose and how much credit Wilson gets when they win.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Hawks 24, Ravens 20

 

[keasley45]

I agree. The team looks exactly like a team from year 2 Wilson where they would be run heavy, play excellent defense and wilson would make a few plays here and there.

Yup. If Peyton would integrate some read option and let him just go off script instead of taking the check down if he can't hit the play, it would be 2012 Russ all over again. But then again, NFL defenses up to 2018 were biased toward covering the underneath passes. So a scrambling Russ who found enough time for his guys to get loose deep, flourished. And when defenses compensated by dropping deep, he ran and made them pay.

He's not that guy anymore, Payton won't tolerate it, and defenses aren't playing the way they did in 2012 to 2018.

 

[keasley45]

Say what you want about Geno (and there's stuff to criticize for sure). But you can see actual signs of shortcomings being addressed, and that, in my opinion is far more reassuring than not knowing what the offense will be week to week and there being zero evidence of adjustment, whether in game or game to game, because the offense is pure improv.

Example, on the 2 scoring drives to open the gane against Cleveland, Geno pretty deftly navigated the pocket before bailing and making critical throws. One a TD. The weeks prior, he was confining himself to the pocket.

Another solid adjustment- integrating young players and new plays into the scheme. One, Lockett's trademark hook in the zone became a choice route where he continued upfield for a key pickup. Another, the play that won the game to JSN. Another... the tendency to get more balls in the hands of player in motion, rather than squatting.

It's obvious to see the trajectory of the offense, it's holes, and reasons for success and failure. It's also refreshing to see them actively fixing things and getting better despite the injuries.

And it's completely encouraging to know that the ceiling for the team, given empiracle, verifiable evidence on film, is very high.

They haven't been beaten yet this year. They've simply underachieved and lost.