Geno Is a Bridge, Nothing More

[DirectMessage]

Aren't people worried that Penix has had something like four major injuries? That's got to have aged his body. He scares me cause he could end up being like RGIII. I would be, shocked if anyone picked him up before the 3rd round, tbh. You would almost have to draft 2 qb's like WAS did with RGIII.

 

[bigcc]

Aren't people worried that Penix has had something like four major injuries? That's got to have aged his body. He scares me cause he could end up being like RGIII. I would be, shocked if anyone picked him up before the 3rd round, tbh. You would almost have to draft 2 qb's like WAS did with RGIII.

Penix hasn't missed a snap in the last 28 games.

He doesn't take unnecessary contact, rg3 had his issues because he tried playing hero ball despite being significantly more slender than penix. Penix is mobile, particularly in the pocket, and can run (he's probably like 4.60-4.64 40),but he's not going to regularly be taking off.

The injury history definitely affects his stock though (to our benefit imo), but there's no chance he falls to the third unless he looks terrible throwing at the combine/pro day (already been announced he's actually throwing at the combine unlike most of the other high QB's)

 

[Maelstrom787]

Penix hasn't missed a snap in the last 28 games.

He doesn't take unnecessary contact, rg3 had his issues because he tried playing hero ball despite being significantly more slender than penix. Penix is mobile, particularly in the pocket, and can run (he's probably like 4.60-4.64 40),but he's not going to regularly be taking off.

The injury history definitely affects his stock though (to our benefit imo), but there's no chance he falls to the third unless he looks terrible throwing at the combine/pro day (already been announced he's actually throwing at the combine unlike most of the other high QB's)

Part of the issue is that it's going to be hard to keep him as clean in the NFL. He was sacked 11 times in 2023. The least-sacked full time starter in the NFL, Josh Allen, took 24. Geno took 31 in 2023, which was well below expectation given the pressure rate he faced. 5.8% sack percentage for Geno, 7.3% for Lock. One would expect Penix to develop into a player that's closer to Geno's sack avoidance, but he's untested under the amount of pressure faced by an NFL QB.

He's going to take significantly more contact in the league than he did at UW.

 

[DirectMessage]

Part of the issue is that it's going to be hard to keep him as clean in the NFL. He was sacked 11 times in 2023. The least-sacked full time starter in the NFL, Josh Allen, took 24. Geno took 31 in 2023, which was well below expectation given the pressure rate he faced. 5.8% sack percentage for Geno, 7.3% for Lock. One would expect Penix to develop into a player that's closer to Geno's sack avoidance, but he's untested under the amount of pressure faced by an NFL QB.

He's going to take significantly more contact in the league than he did at UW.

That and in the NFL it's going to be bigger and stronger players hitting him. If the plan is to draft him, I hope they at least wait until the second. It wouldn't be such a concern if they flushed either Geno or Lock. Then go out and get some of these younger QB's that other teams have soured on. Whether that's through trade, FA, and/or also adding through the draft. Darnold, Wilson, Mac, etc. Some of these guys are probably fairly good, but were stuck in bad organizations.

 

[Maelstrom787]

That and in the NFL it's going to be bigger and stronger players hitting him. If the plan is to draft him, I hope they at least wait until the second. It wouldn't be such a concern if they flushed either Geno or Lock. Then go out and get some of these younger QB's that other teams have soured on. Whether that's through trade, FA, and/or also adding through the draft. Darnold, Wilson, Mac, etc. Some of these guys are probably fairly good, but were stuck in bad organizations.

We're aligned on this. I don't want Penix in the first. As a matter of principle, I'm not taking a dude with 4 season enders and the same ACL torn twice in the first. That's just asking for a terrible time.

I think the NFL will feel similarly. He ain't going in the top 32.

 

[Ozzy]

Wilson was light years better than Geno and its not even remotely clos

First of all: Yay! Another Geno thread!

Second of all: My favorite kind of analysis! Lazy! Let's just compare Yards, TDs, INTs across seasons! And then Passer Rating as well, which is... well, yards, TDs, and INTs!


We didn't think Russ was 'washed up' in 2021 because of his numbers, Russ was washed because his 'basic' numbers hid a fundamentally inefficient player who couldn't keep our offense on the field.

Russ went from a fundamentally successful player to one who was in the bottom half in the league in success rate. (And has stayed bottom tier in success rate ever since.)

Our league worst average TOP per offensive drive was so far to the bottom of the league that the 2nd worst team in the league was as close to being league average as they were to being as bad as us.


This leads me to the worst part of this post, which is the completely ridiculous 'ranking' of all 32 QBs. What is this based on (if it's based on anything at all)? Is it just names you like?

Over the past 2 years, Geno has been better than Justin Herbert by Success Rate, Passer Rating, and ANY/A and almost identical in QBR. Yet Geno is 22 and Herbert is top 5? You have Russ above Geno for what, exactly? Tua is towards the bottom because you came up with a funny nickname for him? And are you actually trying to rank a bunch of rookies who may not even start next year?

Was any thought put into this ranking whatsoever? Or was this just an exercise in self-indulgence?

EDIT: And HTAF do you rank Dak Prescott below Russell Wilson?

Get there isn’t a coach in the league who would call Geno better than Herbert. You say it’s lazy to use traditional numbers but I’d argue it’s also lazy to not factor in situation too, Herbert’s has been decimated by injuries and a much worse supporting cast.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Wilson was light years better than Geno and its not even remotely clos

Get there isn’t a coach in the league who would call Geno better than Herbert. You say it’s lazy to use traditional numbers but I’d argue it’s also lazy to not factor in situation too, Herbert’s has been decimated by injuries and a much worse supporting cast.

I don't think he's saying Geno is objectively better than Herbert, but to have a gulf between them of one being top 5 and the other being the 22nd best QB in the league is a bit ludicrous given their respective production. There's very little context that is severe enough to explain that away, especially considering Geno faced absurd pressure rates as well.

 

[bigcc]

Part of the issue is that it's going to be hard to keep him as clean in the NFL. He was sacked 11 times in 2023. The least-sacked full time starter in the NFL, Josh Allen, took 24. Geno took 31 in 2023, which was well below expectation given the pressure rate he faced. 5.8% sack percentage for Geno, 7.3% for Lock. One would expect Penix to develop into a player that's closer to Geno's sack avoidance, but he's untested under the amount of pressure faced by an NFL QB.

He's going to take significantly more contact in the league than he did at UW.

Absolutely, this is a very valid point.

It's also worth noting that he'd be stepping into a familiar scheme, with familiar coaches, and I think both the OC/OL coach were MASSIVE steps up, REGARDLESS of who is at qb, but especially if it'd be penix.

I can present legitimate concerns with literally all top 7 QB's

 

[Ozzy]

I don't think he's saying Geno is objectively better than Herbert, but to have a gulf between them of one being top 5 and the other being the 22nd best QB in the league is a bit ludicrous given their respective production. There's very little context that is severe enough to explain that away, especially considering Geno faced absurd pressure rates as well.

People like to get specific though when it works for them and ignore it when it doesn’t fit their narrative. Herbert has been hurt a ton and his offensive supporting cast is terrible. Seattles is light years better. Put Herbert on this team and his stats go up drastically assuming he stays healthy

 

[Maelstrom787]

Absolutely, this is a very valid point.

It's also worth noting that he'd be stepping into a familiar scheme, with familiar coaches, and I think both the OC/OL coach were MASSIVE steps up, REGARDLESS of who is at qb, but especially if it'd be penix.

I can present legitimate concerns with literally all top 7 QB's

Oh, absolutely. None of these guys are perfect. I just worry about Penix more than the others when it comes to holding up health-wise. I'd put this as a top 5 to top 10 landing spot for him just for coach familiarity (regardless of Grubb, I think he'd be better served with the Rams/49ers/Dolphins professionally)

 

[bigcc]

That and in the NFL it's going to be bigger and stronger players hitting him. If the plan is to draft him, I hope they at least wait until the second. It wouldn't be such a concern if they flushed either Geno or Lock. Then go out and get some of these younger QB's that other teams have soured on. Whether that's through trade, FA, and/or also adding through the draft. Darnold, Wilson, Mac, etc. Some of these guys are probably fairly good, but were stuck in bad organizations.

Guys like those are legitimately possible replacements for lock,and exactly why I keep hammering home how little trade value geno has.

Why trade for geno when you can sign garapolo or tannehill or cousins or minshew etc without giving a pick?

 

[JayhawkMike]

 

[Maelstrom787]

People like to get specific though when it works for them and ignore it when it doesn’t fit their narrative. Herbert has been hurt a ton and his offensive supporting cast is terrible. Seattles is light years better. Put Herbert on this team and his stats go up drastically assuming he stays healthy

There are obvious extenuating circumstances with Herbert's production, but as I've said before when putting the Geno/Herbert comparison up, the circumstances don't account for such a massive gulf in the perception of the two quarterbacks. I don't really think he's ignoring that reality. Not explicitly, anyway.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Guys like those are legitimately possible replacements for lock,and exactly why I keep hammering home how little trade value geno has.

Why trade for geno when you can sign garapolo or tannehill or cousins or minshew etc without giving a pick?

Cousins will command more than Geno's contract, which would offer two years of team control. That alone would be worth the difference in surrendered capital to any interested team.

Minshew, Tannehill, and Garoppolo don't have the same record of recent on-field success as Geno Smith, other than arguably Minshew but Minshew has significantly less arm talent and athletic capability.

 

[GemCity]

If Lock walks this year, would it be smart to draft 2 qb's in the this draft?

 

[bigcc]

I don't think he's saying Geno is objectively better than Herbert, but to have a gulf between them of one being top 5 and the other being the 22nd best QB in the league is a bit ludicrous given their respective production. There's very little context that is severe enough to explain that away, especially considering Geno faced absurd pressure rates as well.

Lol he was projecting for this season. He has rookies on the list ffs

Chargers unquestionably upgraded HC , we hired first time HC. Geno is on the decline with age. Herbert is 25.

On the list of who you could have at qb for this upcoming season, Herbert at 5 is about right.... Geno somewhere like 12-16, so underrated but I don't know how you could argue for geno over him.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Lol he was projecting for this season. He has rookies on the list ffs

Chargers unquestionably upgraded HC , we hired first time HC. Geno is on the decline with age. Herbert is 25.

On the list of who you could have at qb for this upcoming season, Herbert at 5 is about right.... Geno somewhere like 12-16, so underrated but I don't know how you could argue for geno over him.

I was talking mainly about DarkVictory's comparison, but Fade's rankings are where they'd currently stack up in terms of caliber. If I was fantasy drafting quarterbacks for the long haul, yeah, Herbert's up there and Geno isn't. But for current play caliber? 5th to 22nd isn't a comprehensible gulf between them given the past 2 years.

He's got Rodgers 10th and Cousins 11th. I don't think he's judging based on who he'd build a franchise around going forward. He's ranking play caliber as the here-and-now stands.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Wilson was light years better than Geno and its not even remotely clos

Get there isn’t a coach in the league who would call Geno better than Herbert. You say it’s lazy to use traditional numbers but I’d argue it’s also lazy to not factor in situation too, Herbert’s has been decimated by injuries and a much worse supporting cast.

When was Wilson light years better than Geno? Because it hasn't been these past three years which seem to be the only ones we're talking about in this thread. We're comparing Russ in 2021 to Geno in 2022/2023, this has nothing to do with peak Russ. Or is that one of those specifics that these 'people' I hear about like to ignore when it doesn't fit their narrative?

And I didn't say it was lazy to use traditional numbers, I was calling the analysis lazy because it didn't factor in situation when he was comparing Russ's 2021 to Geno's 2022-2023.


And that's not even related to my criticism of his 'rankings'. I never called Geno better than Herbert. I was asking WTF his 'rankings' were based on. What 'specific' am I supposed to be 'not ignoring' for a list of QBs that seems to have been randomly pulled from thin air? I also asked how he could rank Dak Prescott below Russell Wilson or how he could figure out where ANY college QB who hasn't even been drafted yet rates on a list of starters.

My point wasn't that any coach in the league would call Geno better than Herbert, my point was that this list clearly isn't based on recent performance because of those stats. It's not based on potential because there isn't a planet in this universe on which Russell Wilson has more potential than Dak Prescott or Tua Tagovailoa.

He also put the older, been playing worse, and recently suffered injury Stafford above the younger and better playing Goff.

The list makes no sense as a ranking based on recent play or as future projection. It seemed to be only as an exercise where he could 'prove' that Geno is a bridge by completely arbitrarily putting him low on a list of QBs that seems to be based on nothing. At that point, why not just list them alphabetically by last name? I'll bet Smith gets Geno in the bottom half of the list.

 

[bigcc]

Cousins will command more than Geno's contract, which would offer two years of team control. That alone would be worth the difference in surrendered capital to any interested team.

Minshew, Tannehill, and Garoppolo don't have the same record of recent on-field success as Geno Smith, other than arguably Minshew but Minshew has significantly less arm talent and athletic capability.

And none of them would cost draft picks.

Baker, Mac, fields, browning, russ, brissett

Lot of dudes that cost 0 picks, and if you're going to spend them, dudes available (fields/browning)

This is all BEFORE the draft.

Shit, I feel dumb saying this, but if you're just looking for an immediate bridge, why not the MOST RECENT comeback player of the year? Cheaper and no picks, flacco.

Point being, a lot of options and I don't know how you can justify the pick cost

 

[bigcc]

I was talking mainly about DarkVictory's comparison, but Fade's rankings are where they'd currently stack up in terms of caliber. If I was fantasy drafting quarterbacks for the long haul, yeah, Herbert's up there and Geno isn't. But for current play caliber? 5th to 22nd isn't a comprehensible gulf between them given the past 2 years.

He's got Rodgers 10th and Cousins 11th. I don't think he's judging based on who he'd build a franchise around going forward. He's ranking play caliber as the here-and-now stands.

I mean there's a lot of factors at play lol.

Literally nobody on this planet who has an inkling of familiarity with the teams is taking the chargers surrounding talent over the seahawks.

Solid top 2 receivers, unfortunately 16 games between the two of them.

Their top two rushers combined for 1033 yards 7 tds..... In a big time down year, walker ALONE had 905/8.

Playing the statistics game has no impact on geno/Herbert discussion.... Watch the guys play lol