Earl Thomas to hold out until contract resolved

[Uncle Si]

Why is this a "lose/lose?" are you saying there is no contract that can be negotiated that suits both parties? hard to believe it doesnt exist, Seattle wouldn't offer it and Earl wouldnt sign it.

I like your optimism here. However, it's very believable that the guaranteed dollars Earl is asking for is a much higher sum than what the Hawks are comfortable paying. Players hold out when there is a significant difference in opinion, not when they are very close to a deal.

Maybe optimistic, but trying to be more level with my thoughts on it, as many are just driving the negative.

Him begging for unreasonable terms leaves him entering his final year of his contract without an extended deal.

We have no idea if he's been offered any terms. I can't see him holding out playing, at 29.

 

[Uncle Si]

I hate being right sometimes. Bargaining power just went to the basement with other teams now. Looks like McDougald, who is listed as a FS, is actually playing FS this year. Competition for SS is where it's at. My guess is it's Alexander.

Should have gotten what you could have gotten for him before, damn it. Sooooo stupid.

Pretty sure most people on here saw a holdout of some kind coming. It's the logical step for most players in his position

 

[scutterhawk]

We're not about to pay Earl what he is probably thinking he's worth. He's on a contract and needs to honor it, otherwise, kick rocks. Earl has seen how the guys that didnt believe in the system have been shipped out and that is the only reason he is saying that he still wants to be a Seahawk, it's obvious that he wants one last payday and believes he still has value in Seattle. His heart isnt with this team, hes proven that with his comments. His boys are gone and hes just trying to get paid.

I agree....... He wants a new contract, or he will hold out, and NOT honor his CURRENT contract?
He says he wants to be a Seahawk for the long term, because he wants the 12s to plead his case, well, if that's true, why did he go to Garrett and plead for him to "Come Get Me"?
Too much untruthin' going on here.

 

[vin.couve12]

I hate being right sometimes. Bargaining power just went to the basement with other teams now. Looks like McDougald, who is listed as a FS, is actually playing FS this year. Competition for SS is where it's at. My guess is it's Alexander.

Should have gotten what you could have gotten for him before, damn it. Sooooo stupid.

Pretty sure most people on here saw a holdout of some kind coming. It's the logical step for most players in his position

Not really. It was questionable until he told Pete that he would not hold out the week before the draft. He flat out lied to him and everyone else. Some took a sigh of relief at that point, others didn't take him at his word. You either believed him or you didn't.

 

[vin.couve12]

Hell, it's even possible that we might have drafted different at that point.

 

[vin.couve12]

OK, to clarify, Earl's representatives told JS that he wouldn't hold out. That's when Pete got fired up on camera saying, "Heck yeah, I don't know what everyone's talking about. He's on our roster and we're counting on him," etc, etc, etc.

Then Pete pretty much said the same after he wasn't traded after the draft.

Should have traded him, fools.

 

[Uncle Si]

I hate being right sometimes. Bargaining power just went to the basement with other teams now. Looks like McDougald, who is listed as a FS, is actually playing FS this year. Competition for SS is where it's at. My guess is it's Alexander.

Should have gotten what you could have gotten for him before, damn it. Sooooo stupid.

Pretty sure most people on here saw a holdout of some kind coming. It's the logical step for most players in his position

Not really. It was questionable until he told Pete that he would not hold out the week before the draft. He flat out lied to him and everyone else. Some took a sigh of relief at that point, others didn't take him at his word. You either believed him or you didn't.

I think its easier to believe the situation..

a football player with one year on his contract is likely to use what ever leverage there is to extend that contract.

most assumed this. and he it is.

you nailed it. I thought they shouldve traded him on draft day. I'm assuming they didnt get a good offer.

 

[RCATES]

Hopefully Seahawks don't make the same mistake they did with Kam and overpay. Earl's production has fallen off a cliff yet I guarantee he want's top 3 young Safety money basically rewarding him for how good he was 3 years ago. Obviously no other team wanted to pay him that much either and make a trade. I'd let his ass sit and either play out his contract or retire. Pete and this front office's caused this mess. Now they can lie in it.

 

[Jazzhawk]

And there it is. Selfish money-grabber. He knew what he signed when he signed his contract a few years ago. If he didn't like it, he should not have signed it. It's not just an extension he's looking for, he has made it clear he wants to be the highest paid safety in the league, but the team cannot allow themselves to be forced to handcuff themselves to him in that way.

 

[vin.couve12]

I hate being right sometimes. Bargaining power just went to the basement with other teams now. Looks like McDougald, who is listed as a FS, is actually playing FS this year. Competition for SS is where it's at. My guess is it's Alexander.

Should have gotten what you could have gotten for him before, damn it. Sooooo stupid.

Pretty sure most people on here saw a holdout of some kind coming. It's the logical step for most players in his position

Not really. It was questionable until he told Pete that he would not hold out the week before the draft. He flat out lied to him and everyone else. Some took a sigh of relief at that point, others didn't take him at his word. You either believed him or you didn't.

I think its easier to believe the situation..

a football player with one year on his contract is likely to use what ever leverage there is to extend that contract.

most assumed this. and he it is.

you nailed it.

That's not really the point. We should have gotten the most we could for him, maybe drafted one of two safeties in the draft or signed one of three vets, and have roster clarity right now heading into camp. This was handled poorly.

T.J. Mutcherson
38 FS 5-10 197 25 R UCF

Alex Carter
1 FS 6-0 201 23 1 Stanford

Bradley McDougald
30 FS 6-1 215 27 6 Kansas

Tedric Thompson
33 FS 6-0 204 23 2 Colorado

On the other hand, 3 of the 4 of these guys have to be licking their chops.

So let's say that the Hawks are waking up to the fact that they need to plan for getting the most out of this deal. What sort of compensation do the Hawks get if they let him walk in FA next year? Is that a 3rd? What is that dependent on? Conversely, if a trade is back on the table, do they not have to beat the price of that 3rd rounder or whatever would be in the cards for a comp pick?

That's the way I'm looking at it now. A trade would have to meet or exceed the comp pick next year. If he can't be traded for that price, then let him rot and move on as if he isn't there. Don't address it one bit otherwise.

 

[Uncle Si]

I mean how is that not the point?

What if the deal to extend him is a decent one though?

 

[vin.couve12]

What if the deal to extend him is a decent one though?

Why? McDougald played great at FS for us. We averaged 16 PPG with him in vs 17 PPG with Earl. Even if there is a drop off, it is extremely minimal. So what's the price on that? What is that worth? Why would we pay an extra 10 million per year for next to no gain? That doesn't make a lick of business sense.

I know there are some who don't know the defense that want to say that Earl would have gotten down the deep sideline in that WAS game, but that's a lie. Earl had made 2 plays on the deep sideline in his entire career in pass coverage and that's by design. It's not his responsibility or the FS's responsibility. Nearly every other INT that Earl has gotten on the deep sideline has been tipped to him by Sherm.

The ROI doesn't make sense here. Net gain of having Earl vs having McDougald does not make up the difference of 10+million dollars and probably not even 8 mil.

The only real difference is that you're talking about having both shoring up both the FS and SS spots for this year. Earl's game is based on speed more than anything else. He's not the brightest guy in the world, and he's losing his speed. So do you go short sighted for this year/screw yourself long term, or do that actually have confidence in the safeties they drafted last year like JS says?

Either way, week 1 is likely McDougald at FS and Alexander at SS and that shouldn't look to bad IF the pass rush doesn't suck. Pass rush has proven to be more important anyway. Even with a perfectly healthy LOB, you get cut up if the pass rush allows as much time as they have been.

 

[onanygivensunday]

The NFL is a business... but it works both ways. Players have to look out for themselves and so do the teams.

Look, it's not like we're going to the Superbowl this year. If that were the case, the team should do everything to keep Earl happy and on the field.

But that, sadly, is not the case.

The team should plan to play this year without him. Sorry, Earl, you've made a bad decision.

 

[Uncle Si]

Yeah, i don't think we NEED Earl Thomas...

But we certainly either need him or the draft picks. Im saying that the package for ET might make it worth keeping him for 2-3 more years.

 

[chris98251]

Well with Kams contract guaranteeing he gets paid playing or not this year I think Earl wants that safety cushion as well, from the teams side it is dumb to give that type of contract as it has hamstrung us in some ways, giving another to a player almost 30 would be stupid. From a players side yeah I want the money there if I am laying my body on the line every day, they did it for Kam so they should do it for me has to be Earls thoughts.

 

[Jville]

Earl's instagram post is a framing statement .......................................

The Earl Thomas statement is nothing more than a now standard player agent provided statement ..... i.e. words to frame the narrative. There is little value in those words just as there was little of value in the words that framed the precedent setting Marshawn Lynch statements. In the end, Marshawn got every dime out of Paul Allen on his way to Oakland.

The Marshawn Lynch story set the example of how agents work Paul Allen. The Earl Thomas narrative is simply following the Lynch pattern on the way out of town to his beloved Dallas. In fact, hindsight suggests the Legion of Boom came to be degraded into the Legion of Doom with the Kam Chancellor hold out. Indeed, there are other player agents and players who replicate the Lynch example.

In my eyes, Paul Allen remains hostage to the Lynch precedent. The "timed extortion" of Paul Allen continues to snowball unabated on Allen. Could it further threaten to continue it's destabilizing path by next sweeping up Frank Clark sooner rather than latter?

The Lynch precedent remains a formidable stumbling block to team planing and continuity. Finding answers is a necessary prerequisite to returning as a competitive team. Will they try once again to kick the can down the road? Or will they reveal a solution?

 

[TreeRon]

I don't think Pete is a "liberal" but I get what you are saying. You don't like his touchy feely management style.

As far as Thomas goes he's got Sherman advising him so what could go wrong. Sherman is the smartest guy in football. Sherman just wants to stick it to Seattle. He's like a scorned lover.

Sherm's got nothing to lose by advising ET to hold out. I don't think he's even thinking about any negative impact for Thomas and if he did I doubt he cares.

 

[AgentDib]

If the Seahawks do not budge then it doesn't necessarily mean Earl is making a mistake from his perspective. It will cost him $6m to hold out the first 10 games of the season and he's looking at $20m+ in guaranteed dollars as a UFA in 2019. That can be a solid trade-off for an aging safety depending on the risk of injury, and that's before you factor in ego and the appeal of completely skipping the next five months of football.

What if the deal to extend him is a decent one though?

What in your opinion is a decent deal for both parties?

Conversely, if a trade is back on the table, do they not have to beat the price of that 3rd rounder or whatever would be in the cards for a comp pick? That's the way I'm looking at it now. A trade would have to meet or exceed the comp pick next year.

We'd probably get a 2020 third. Knock the round down one to get the pick a year earlier, and since comp picks occur at the end of the round it drops another half round. So the trade equivalent to that comp pick is probably a 2019 late fourth.

I think it's more complicated than that, however, because there is benefit to Earl in being traded to a team he wants to play for. I'm not typically in favor of worrying about precedents but they do matter in cases like these, and a 2019 late fourth may not be worth future headaches created.

 

[Sports Hernia]

We were all worried about this for good reason but it's still very disappointing. Kam's holdout really hurt our 2015 season and I'm pessimistic that Earl's holdout will end up a similar way.

Wasn’t it Earl who said in a post game interview after going 0-2 something to the effect of “he needs to be out here with us”. Basically calling Kam selfish for holding out without saying it? Now he is going to do the same thing...

Mini-camp doesn’t = missing games.
If he misses games then your point stands, if not, it’s moot.

 

[FidelisHawk]

He has to be eyeing Berry’s contract (he mention it at the time in ‘17)

“The Chiefs signed Eric Berry to a six year, $78 million contract on February 28, 2017. Berry received $40 million in guarantees including a $20 million signing bonus and the base salary of the first two years of his contract.”

They are only 3 million apart now, so it’s not an impossible reach.

The guarantees have to be the sticking point, and after the Kam contract (more specifically the guarantees given), I’m not sure how much of an appetite there is to end up in a similar situation.

As an aside, Kam will be getting paid 2 million (guaranteed) more than Earl this year and may not play.