Clemons and Sherman, Thomas

[gubernaculum]

Clemons is 32 years old, with 20 tackles, and 4.5 sacks in 12 games. He really hasn't been himself this year at all, especially of late.
Compare that to the prior 3 seasons when he had 11 or more sacks each season, with 40-50 tackles.
2014 cap stats are $7,500,000 base, $9,666,668 cap number $2,166,668 in dead money.
We save $7,500,000 if we cut him. I feel bad about his injury, but there is no reason to believe that at his current age he can be expected to put up numbers to justify his salary. That coupled with the fact that 32 years is ancient by PC/JS standards, I don't see any way he makes it back next year.
I'd much rather put that money towards Bennett, and/or hopefully pick up another defensive end that is willing to come on a one-year prove it contract. With the 12th man advantage, I can't imagine a better place for a defensive lineman to play.

I also don't think we are going to pay the top dollar contract that Sherman will require. There is no doubt that he is our best corner, but how much better is he than our next best corner? Is there that much of a gap? I don't think so. The only player in the secondary that I feel is indespensible is Earl. If we lose him, our ability to play single high safety is strongly compromised, so he is a must keep IMHO.

 

[rightbench]

IMO Clemons numbers are down because he is no longer THE Passrush with a Meh supporting cast in terms of pass rush. He's now directly competing with Avril, Bennett, and even the DT rotation for the sacks that we normally would have expected him to take the majority of.

If anything, it's a credit to how good our team has become that Clemons no longer stands out the way he had in previous years.

 

[McGruff]

Our corner depth is great. Best in the league and maybe in history . . .

. . . But Sherman is head and shoulders above them. Its not that close. Sherman has made himself into a generational type player. Physical, fast, long, and has a knack for the big play. Add what he contributes as an instigator and media presence, and he's a must sign player. Almost regardless of the contract.

 

[gulliver]

Agree that Sherman's value cannot be overstated. We have great depth, sure, but Sherman is an absolute lockdown corner.

Hard to put a price on a guy who lets NOTHING happen offensively on a full-third of the field. IMO most corners even on our team don't make that defensive play on NO's first drive to open the game. Whole contest could have been different. A LOT of contests could have been different, and it could change the whole dynamic of the secondary.

 

[themunn]

Clemons is still the starter for a reason.
More likely that we see the FO work some cap magic and give him a (cap-friendly) extension. Whilst 32 is fairly old for a DE, he's only been a starting DE for 3.5 years, so the wear and tear on his body isn't the same as someone like Freeney (similar age) or even Mathis (6 months older, currently leading NFL in sacks).

 

[Shaz]

Sherman and Thomas need to be resigned

Love me some Clemons but he's going to become a cap casualty

 

[TJH]

I'm not sold on us resigning Sherm. Dude is going to want an astronomical contract. I just don't see Pete's philosophy aligning with that. I personally would much rather use the money on line depth than a corner.

 

[Popeyejones]

I don't think Clemons will be cut, particularly given that Bennett most likely won't be resigned. I also think that makes sense. Here's my thinking, and it's all cap related.

The Hawks will be wanting to extend Thomas (and probably, if possible) Sherman next offseason, and Wilson's big 20 million per year contract will be negotiated the offseason after that.

Clemons has one more year on his deal.
Avril has one more year on his deal.
Bennett has no more years on his deal.

The Hawks can't resign Bennett, as he's (IMO) the best player of the three and resigning him not only cuts into what they can do with Thomas and Sherm, but also into Wilson's big payday two years down the line (which is the most major factor here). I'm SURE they'd love to keep him, but it's just very unlikely.

Clemons and Avril going off the books right when Wilson's big payday comes up is really, really fortunate. The Hawks can essentially backload Thomas and Sherman's contract a little bit to keep Clemons and Avril next year (say, drop a huge bump into year three), and then frontload Wilson's contract a little bit (say, place the big payday in year one) and be back to zero with Thomas, Sherm, and Wilson alll signed long term, in addition to getting another year from Clemons and Avril before they're gone to make room for Wilson's $. As for loading money into years, this is what the Hawks did with Harvin's contract, paying him more in the second year right before Wilson comes up than in any other year of the contract.

All of this is of course assuming they're able to keep Thomas and Sherman. Goldson has a 9 million cap hit, and it's safe to say IMO that Thomas will get AT LEAST 9 million per year, but probably more as he's both MUCH better and 5(!) years younger than Goldson. Revis' contract is screwy because there's no bonus money, but it's for 16 million per year. That said, Cortland Finnegan's contract isn't screwy and his cap hit is 14 million per year. Sherm is of course both better and younger than both of these guys too, so 15 million per is far from unreasonable.

Basically, as a best case scenario and with these VERY YOUNG, and VERY GOOD players even taking home town discounts, we're talking 1 out of every 6 cap dollars for the team going to two players in the secondary. It's doable, but sheesh, you really have to take from other places to make it happen. Once we factor in Wilson and Harvin two years from now we're talking 4.5 out of every ten cap dollars going to four players. Again, doable, but man it really crushes you at other spots to do it. In a weird way it might end up being Percy Harvin that causes Sherman to leave (or they've never been planning on resigning Sherman, which is what made signing Harvin feasible).

Long story short though, Clemons can possibly stay and be a bit overpaid strictly BECAUSE he comes off the books right before Wilson goes up. It's the same logic that caused the 49ers to give a 6th round pick for Boldin a day or two before he was cut (if he was cut he'd want a multi-year deal, and given the 9ers cap situation, it was better for them to overpay for one year than to appropriately pay for three).

 

[Throwdown]

There's a reason Benson Mayowa has been on untouchable when they shuffled the bottom of the roster when injuries happened (might sound stupid, but its really what I believe)

Also Red Bryant and all his dopeness could also be a casualty.

 

[ManBunts]

IMO Clemons numbers are down because he is no longer THE Passrush with a Meh supporting cast in terms of pass rush. He's now directly competing with Avril, Bennett, and even the DT rotation for the sacks that we normally would have expected him to take the majority of.

If anything, it's a credit to how good our team has become that Clemons no longer stands out the way he had in previous years.

Agreed. Clemons numbers are down, but that's because he's been identified as our big pass rush threat from the past few years. Which is fine. Him sucking up a double team every time opens up the lanes for Avril, Bennett, Mebane, etc. I think if we keep him healthy and happy, accounting for age, when the time comes we may be able to negotiate down.

Also, with all these huge QB deals, I think we all know Russell could justify a $20+ million a year contract, but will he? The way he plays, talks and works, i gotta believe the guy realizes the merit of the players around him, and would much rather take a "lower" (because $12-5 million is practically broke) contract if that meant keeping key players. I don't see him getting greedy and choking the team a la Flacco, Ryan and Brees

 

[TheWalrus]

I don't like criticizing guys who've been great Seahawks, but if you don't think there has been a pretty big dropoff in Clem's play this year so you're not watching him very closely. Against NY, he was going up against a very average (and I'm being generous) OT and he did nothing all game. Bennett and Avril both got opportunities against the same LT and were able to generate pressure, but Clem was invisible.

 

[gubernaculum]

Agree Walrus. Watching the film, Clem generally is not double teamed, and the push that he gets into the backfield is not what it has been in the past.

 

[pmedic920]

I don't know this for a fact but it seems to me that the "drop off" is because others (on our squad)have been stepping up their game. Same with Sherm. Opposing QBs seem to be throwing to his area less.. If they won't even throw to the part of the field that you are covering, that is the definition of " shut down".
PAY THE MAN.

 

[Brahn]

I don't think Clemons will be cut, particularly given that Bennett most likely won't be resigned. I also think that makes sense. Here's my thinking, and it's all cap related.

The Hawks will be wanting to extend Thomas (and probably, if possible) Sherman next offseason, and Wilson's big 20 million per year contract will be negotiated the offseason after that.

Clemons has one more year on his deal.
Avril has one more year on his deal.
Bennett has no more years on his deal.

The Hawks can't resign Bennett, as he's (IMO) the best player of the three and resigning him not only cuts into what they can do with Thomas and Sherm, but also into Wilson's big payday two years down the line (which is the most major factor here). I'm SURE they'd love to keep him, but it's just very unlikely.

Clemons and Avril going off the books right when Wilson's big payday comes up is really, really fortunate. The Hawks can essentially backload Thomas and Sherman's contract a little bit to keep Clemons and Avril next year (say, drop a huge bump into year three), and then frontload Wilson's contract a little bit (say, place the big payday in year one) and be back to zero with Thomas, Sherm, and Wilson alll signed long term, in addition to getting another year from Clemons and Avril before they're gone to make room for Wilson's $. As for loading money into years, this is what the Hawks did with Harvin's contract, paying him more in the second year right before Wilson comes up than in any other year of the contract.

All of this is of course assuming they're able to keep Thomas and Sherman. Goldson has a 9 million cap hit, and it's safe to say IMO that Thomas will get AT LEAST 9 million per year, but probably more as he's both MUCH better and 5(!) years younger than Goldson. Revis' contract is screwy because there's no bonus money, but it's for 16 million per year. That said, Cortland Finnegan's contract isn't screwy and his cap hit is 14 million per year. Sherm is of course both better and younger than both of these guys too, so 15 million per is far from unreasonable.

Basically, as a best case scenario and with these VERY YOUNG, and VERY GOOD players even taking home town discounts, we're talking 1 out of every 6 cap dollars for the team going to two players in the secondary. It's doable, but sheesh, you really have to take from other places to make it happen. Once we factor in Wilson and Harvin two years from now we're talking 4.5 out of every ten cap dollars going to four players. Again, doable, but man it really crushes you at other spots to do it. In a weird way it might end up being Percy Harvin that causes Sherman to leave (or they've never been planning on resigning Sherman, which is what made signing Harvin feasible).

Long story short though, Clemons can possibly stay and be a bit overpaid strictly BECAUSE he comes off the books right before Wilson goes up. It's the same logic that caused the 49ers to give a 6th round pick for Boldin a day or two before he was cut (if he was cut he'd want a multi-year deal, and given the 9ers cap situation, it was better for them to overpay for one year than to appropriately pay for three).

Lot of this makes sense on paper.

Off Paper tho,

Michael Bennett did take a pay cut to come play for the Hawks. The Bucs offered him more years more money. Michael Bennett loves Seattle, why do you think a 10 sack DT only was paid 5 Million. If the front office has to decide on Bennett or Clemons next season the decision will not be difficult.

More difficult to replace, Overall Disruptive DT or Pass Rushing DE.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Clemons is still the starter for a reason.

Explain please....

 

[Brahn]

There's a reason Benson Mayowa has been on untouchable when they shuffled the bottom of the roster when injuries happened (might sound stupid, but its really what I believe)

Also Red Bryant and all his dopeness could also be a casualty.

Ya, I could see Red being gone.

 

[Barthawk]

Clemons also plays about 15-20 snaps less a game.. the DL rotation has the guys plays roughly 55-60% of the snaps..

 

[JGreen79]

I think Sherman, Thomas, and Wilson are three players we have too keep regardless. The rest IMO are expendable. Also I don't think there's any chance of not resigning Bennett unless its a ridiculous contract. Not sure of the numbers now but a few weeks ago we had the best pass rush by percentage and it wasnt really even close. Bennett is a huge part in that. Sacks does not equal pass rush. The amount of pressure we get on the qb forces early throws which plays directly to the strength of our secondary.

 

[Evil_Shenanigans]

Blaspemy! Clem's going nowhere! Take a look at what happened to our Pass Rush when he got hurt last year. The additions of Bennett, Avril and even guys like McDaniel and McDonald have payed major dividends to bolster that problem area. That Clemons was able to return as soon as he did is testament to his work ethic and dedication to this team. Look beyond the stats and you will see a leader and mentor and very much the anchor of the DL!

 

[plyka]

Clemons is 32 years old, with 20 tackles, and 4.5 sacks in 12 games. He really hasn't been himself this year at all, especially of late.
Compare that to the prior 3 seasons when he had 11 or more sacks each season, with 40-50 tackles.
2014 cap stats are $7,500,000 base, $9,666,668 cap number $2,166,668 in dead money.
We save $7,500,000 if we cut him. I feel bad about his injury, but there is no reason to believe that at his current age he can be expected to put up numbers to justify his salary. That coupled with the fact that 32 years is ancient by PC/JS standards, I don't see any way he makes it back next year.
I'd much rather put that money towards Bennett, and/or hopefully pick up another defensive end that is willing to come on a one-year prove it contract. With the 12th man advantage, I can't imagine a better place for a defensive lineman to play.

I also don't think we are going to pay the top dollar contract that Sherman will require. There is no doubt that he is our best corner, but how much better is he than our next best corner? Is there that much of a gap? I don't think so. The only player in the secondary that I feel is indespensible is Earl. If we lose him, our ability to play single high safety is strongly compromised, so he is a must keep IMHO.

GREAT post, I agree 100% with everything you said. Earl is the indispensible player in the defense. Just look at the drop off if everyone is healthy between Sherm and his backup and Earl and his backup. If everyone is here (Browner and Thurmond) then Sherm's backup would be Browner/Thurmon/Maxwell, if Earl gets hurt, who is his backup? Maragos? A player that shouldn't even be on this team. There is a reason why Earl, although undersized, was the 6th player in the draft taken. He is what makes this defense go.

Also, of course you're right with Clem. There will be loses, this team would not lose much if anything without Clem. WIthout Okung, Earl, Russell and even Sherm, it would be a different story.