3rd down efficiency

[LTH]

The Seahawks offense is scoring some serious points but their 3rd down efficiency is lacking

Against the ;

Rams. 2 -9
Detroit. 5-11
Carolina. 3 -13

Why do you think this is the case?

LTH

 

[LTH]

REALLY? nobody has a take on why the Hawks are bad on 3rd down?

LTH

 

[LTH]

I think part of it is on Waldron. I think that the Hawks have the ability to make plays with every skilled position group.

I think part of it is with continuity on the O line

Do you agree with that ? Do you have something to add?

LTH

 

[had2bhawk]

REALLY? nobody has a take on why the Hawks are bad on 3rd down?

LTH

I'll give it a go.
Waldron is worried about the Tackles handling outside penetration so everything goes up the Gut.

 

[Wheetie]

IMO, 3rd down is the down that requires the most creative play calling. Even though the offense is finding decent success, it's still fairly vanilla compared to most other teams.

 

[Mick063]

Here is how I interpret it. Third down success is typically a function of distance. There is a huge difference between 3rd and 3 as opposed to 3rd and 8.

I can't necessarily blame running the ball on first down because what is not included in the theme of this thread is how often first downs are accumulated on first or second down. In other words, if you pick up 7 yards on the ground on first down, there is a good chance you pick up the first down on second down and never expose yourself to the third down scenario that is causing angst.

I would prefer to narrow this down to red zone third down efficiency because the team is reliably moving the ball up and down the field between the twenty-yard lines. Look no further than five field goal attempts to support this argument. Regardless, the team is not picking up enough yardage on first down in the red zone to create easily convertible third downs. The shortened field is causing the opposition to play tighter in coverage and closer to the line of scrimmage.

So, I personally believe it is a matter of the first down play selection and execution upon entering the red zone. That narrows the issue down to a very specific area. I don't have an answer for it, but the team really needs to focus on their first down play when entering the red zone. Execute that play and the third down conversions will become an inherent derivative of it. In other words, more easily convertible because the distance required for conversion is manageable.

 

[sutz]

Here is how I interpret it. Third down success is typically a function of distance. There is a huge difference between 3rd and 3 as opposed to 3rd and 8.

I can't necessarily blame running the ball on first down because what is not included in the theme of this thread is how often first downs are accumulated on first or second down. In other words, if you pick up 7 yards on the ground on first down, there is a good chance you pick up the first down on second down and never expose yourself to the third down scenario that is causing angst.

I would prefer to narrow this down to red zone third down efficiency because the team is reliably moving the ball up and down the field between the twenty-yard lines. Look no further than five field goal attempts to support this argument. Regardless, the team is not picking up enough yardage on first down in the red zone to create easily convertible third downs. The shortened field is causing the opposition to play tighter in coverage and closer to the line of scrimmage.

So, I personally believe it is a matter of the first down play selection and execution upon entering the red zone. That narrows the issue down to a very specific area. I don't have an answer for it, but the team really needs to focus on their first down play when entering the red zone. Execute that play and the third down conversions will become an inherent derivative of it. In other words, more easily convertible because the distance required for conversion is manageable.

It's not just the red zone. Fact is that a lot of 3rd down failures are a function of distance as you stated. That's true anywhere on the field. So, improved play on first and second down will lead to shorter 3rd down situations and more success.

That is not the only problem of course. You can't just fall back on the run, run, pass, punt offense as some have derisively accused them of doing. You have to mix in pass plays on first down, realizing that an incomplete leads to second and long situation that compounds the problem. Same on second down. Truth is that many successful scoring drives actually have fewer 3d down plays if you get a few chunk plays along the way.

Look to overall yards per play as an indicator. If you're averaging over 4 yards per offensive play, you're doing fairly well. Get 3 or less and you're looking at lots of 3d and long calls.

Which brings us to the offensive line. In both run and pass blocking, one of the most important things to cultivate is continuity on the line. We look back fondly on the 2005 offensive line and sometimes neglect to point out that there were very few missed games in that group. Our current O-line has already suffered on that score, with key players missing time. They've done pretty well overall considering the injury situation, but if/when we get a group that stays on the field and plays together for extended periods I think our 3rd down problem will ease quite a bit.

 

[Mick063]

It's not just the red zone. Fact is that a lot of 3rd down failures are a function of distance as you stated. That's true anywhere on the field. So, improved play on first and second down will lead to shorter 3rd down situations and more success.

That is not the only problem of course. You can't just fall back on the run, run, pass, punt offense as some have derisively accused them of doing. You have to mix in pass plays on first down, realizing that an incomplete leads to second and long situation that compounds the problem. Same on second down. Truth is that many successful scoring drives actually have fewer 3d down plays if you get a few chunk plays along the way.

Look to overall yards per play as an indicator. If you're averaging over 4 yards per offensive play, you're doing fairly well. Get 3 or less and you're looking at lots of 3d and long calls.

Which brings us to the offensive line. In both run and pass blocking, one of the most important things to cultivate is continuity on the line. We look back fondly on the 2005 offensive line and sometimes neglect to point out that there were very few missed games in that group. Our current O-line has already suffered on that score, with key players missing time. They've done pretty well overall considering the injury situation, but if/when we get a group that stays on the field and plays together for extended periods I think our 3rd down problem will ease quite a bit.

Five field goal attempts. The team is moving the ball. Just not converting touchdowns.

 

[LTH]

Five field goal attempts. The team is moving the ball. Just not converting touchdowns.

I think part of it is Waldron isn't adjusting soon enough. Look at the second half of the panther game as soon as the Hawks started hitting the TE on those medium to short seem routes it opened up everything but specifically the run game... that's the c waybi saw it just my take...


LTH

 

[LTH]

Here is how I interpret it. Third down success is typically a function of distance. There is a huge difference between 3rd and 3 as opposed to 3rd and 8.

I can't necessarily blame running the ball on first down because what is not included in the theme of this thread is how often first downs are accumulated on first or second down. In other words, if you pick up 7 yards on the ground on first down, there is a good chance you pick up the first down on second down and never expose yourself to the third down scenario that is causing angst.

I would prefer to narrow this down to red zone third down efficiency because the team is reliably moving the ball up and down the field between the twenty-yard lines. Look no further than five field goal attempts to support this argument. Regardless, the team is not picking up enough yardage on first down in the red zone to create easily convertible third downs. The shortened field is causing the opposition to play tighter in coverage and closer to the line of scrimmage.

So, I personally believe it is a matter of the first down play selection and execution upon entering the red zone. That narrows the issue down to a very specific area. I don't have an answer for it, but the team really needs to focus on their first down play when entering the red zone. Execute that play and the third down conversions will become an inherent derivative of it. In other words, more easily convertible because the distance required for conversion is manageable.

So to your point, how much are the Seahawks averaging on first and second down?


LTH

 

[sc85sis]

I have no clue what’s causing it, but Pete mentioned it as an issue in his post-game presser on Sunday. Hopefully they figure it out sooner than later.

 

[keasley45]

I see a couple of things.

1. Geno, for as good as he is in the offense, tends to force throws to his guys. He'll go through a stretch when he's feeding Lockett. Then he will do the same with DK. I think it's because they have a raport on certain plays / calls. How often he's switching the call to these plays because he thinks they'll be there, I don't know. But it's notable that it's usually a throw to a TE or JSN that is obviously not one of the standard shortlist of go-to's.

Last year, defenses recognized these plays by mid season and started sitting on them. They're on tape, and I think some of the 3rd down struggles when Geno is looking for DK or Tyler come because of a carryover from 22.

He needs to get JSN involved more. That's a chapter no one's has seen. But with that, cones the risk of what happened Sunday when Geno see the play one way, and a new wr, another.

2. I still think we are living a bit too much out of our old playbook. The PA chunks have come, but the offense looks seems more effective when Geno is just dropping back and distributing in rhythm. The PA drops, at least to my recollection, see Geno hitting his spot and then standing there, patting the ball.

It's known that defenses have transitioned more to take away the deep shots and force offenses to work the short and middle game. It's in part why over the last few years, Russ has hit on hard times.

I think Shane and Geno need to work the playbook a bit more.

 

[keasley45]

I also think some of the issue may be that Shane and Geno are less eager to go too deep in the playbook given the protection issues they're having to scheme to cover for.

 

[morgulon1]

Look at weekly stats of any game and more often and not you can tell who won simply by the team with the higher 3rd down success.

And turnovers of course.

 

[LTH]

I also think some of the issue may be that Shane and Geno are less eager to go too deep in the playbook given the protection issues they're having to scheme to cover for.

I just think they haven't found their identity as a team yet. The young guys like JSN need to learn to work through adversity because in the 3rd and 4th quarter of the season when it gets hard against teams like the Niners and the Eagles it's going to be the success of the young guys that are going to make this team hard to beat. You know the Niners are watching everything with microscope. Hopefully this team will peak start to peak in that last part of the season.

LTH

 

[Fudwamper]

Its very simple, lack of creativity in routes and matching people up. You don't have to scheme as much as have options. Look at what other teams exploit against the hawks weekly; drags against LB's in man, splitting the middle behind the lb's in zone and man, attacking the soft cushion to the middle between the safety and cb. We see what good OC's can do against us.

DK should be running primarily man routes, JSN should be running zone concepts, and Lockett with option routes. Throw in chopping and releasing RB's and TE's.

MY $0.02 of why we have crap 3rd down completion percentage for the last 5 years plus.

 

[seabowl]

The offense should just watch what the opposing offense does to our defense on third down and copy. Our third down defense is and has been atrocious for sometime.

 

[Ad Hawk]

The offense should just watch what the opposing offense does to our defense on third down and copy. Our third down defense is and has been atrocious for sometime.

This only works if they are running the same defensive schemes we are.

 

[Dvl Dug]

REALLY? nobody has a take on why the Hawks are bad on 3rd down?

LTH

Hello LTH,

Found myself being very interested in your thread here! Only the internet wasn't yielding me the data needed to form a solid opinion on the Hawk's 3rd Down Conversion troubles. When I did find some of what that information, I didn't immediately understand the data that I did find. Here's what I have collected for you so far...

This comes from Seahawk's.com

My read into this is:

• Total First Downs, Hawks 68, Opponents 75. Keep in mind, this stat is the overall 1st Downs, and does not specifically reflect the 3rd Down Conversion Rate, but obviously the opponents are collecting more 1st Downs then our Hawks are.
• Rushing/Passing/Penalty, Hawks 20 rushes & 39 passes, Opponents 16 rushes & 51 passes. Row Two, shows that the Hawk's passing attack is gaining more 1st Downs than the running game is, and by about a 2 to 1 margin. For a team that wants to be closer to 50% run & 50% pass, this seems to be out of kilter, so I'll agree with those above that point to the damaged offensive line. Also, see those opponent's stats, that's not normal; it's what happens when we have the 31st ranked passing defense in the league, and we do...
• Third Down Conversions made, Row Three (not highlighted). That's the 10/33 stat. Having only 33 conversion attempts over a span of 3 games isn't really a very big sample size, but even if it was 66 conversion attempts, I still don't believe the overall success % would change very much.
• Me... I'm tired of watching this offense throw the ball on every single Third & Three Yards To Go play. As much as I like RG Phil Haynes as a backup offensive lineman, I like the idea of 332 LB Rookie RG Anthony Bradford even better!
• Your turn... I'd like to know what do you read into it?

ProFootballReference.com gives us the following

Here's what I am seeing:

• Once again, other than that top box, this screen also does not provide us with just the 3rd Down Conversion information desired. The next two boxes are cumulative; meaning those conversations could have been made on 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down, or 4th down.
• Team Conversions Box, Third Down Attempts 33, Third Down Conversions 10, Third Down Percentage 30.3%. We all know that championship teams end up being much closer to 50% than 30%. That's the frustrating part here!
• Passing Box, this looks like a very suspicious culprit to me. Notice that Geno Smith has a Cmp% of 68.9 percent, but seven stats over to the right, he only holds a Succ% of 54.6 when trying to convert. That's a huge drop off.
• Rushing & Receiving Box, with an overall Succ% of 52.6 percent, this looks like another very suspicious culprit to me, as that rushing Succ% of 52.6 percent is a lot higher than the team's overall all 3rd Down Conversion Rate of only 30.3 percent.
• Me... I'm coming to the same former conclusion that this team is passing too much on Third Down with 3 or fewer yards to go for the 1st Down Conversion. They do have a rushing average of 4.1 yards per carry overall, with Kenneth Walker averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and Zack Charbonnet averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Other than possibly within the Red Zone, I'm not seeing the opposing teams loading the box against our run game on 3rd and 3 yards or less.
• Your turn again... Maybe you see something here that I completely whiffed on?

A few other last second thoughts I have to add:

• JSN seemed to be running deeper & more productive routes in the pre-season. That was before both he and the offensive line were hit by injuries. Jet sweeps don't enthuse me much. JSN is not Dee Eskridge.
• Will Dissly is also banged up, and I do regard him as being part of the 3rd Down Conversion Rate solution.
• Hawk's 31st ranked Defense needs to get off the field on 3rd downs. That would allow our Offense to practice their own trade more often than they currently have been. Time of Posession has been just as big a problem for this team!
• Looks like LT Charles Cross will be out again. I like Forsythe in the running game, but can we get Peters in at LT as well, maybe run some 3 Offensive Tackle sets???

As stated, I wish more 3rd down information was available on the free sites. Those with access to the premium stat sites might very well come upwith better explanations than what I have outlined here. I'd be interested to see some of it.

 

[GGotskill]

Its very simple, lack of creativity in routes and matching people up. You don't have to scheme as much as have options.