3rd down efficiency

[Mad Dog]

I just think it's mostly on Geno. He sometimes only has eyes for DK and NoE on 3rd down and doesn't take what the defense gives him. Of course Waldron could help too by instilling plays that use DK and NoE as decoys and set up the TE's and JSN as the primaries.

 

[morgulon1]

This only works if they are running the same defensive schemes we are.

That's what I initially thought.

 

[LTH]

Hello LTH,

Found myself being very interested in your thread here! Only the internet wasn't yielding me the data needed to form a solid opinion on the Hawk's 3rd Down Conversion troubles. When I did find some of what that information, I didn't immediately understand the data that I did find. Here's what I have collected for you so far...

This comes from Seahawk's.com
View attachment 60900
My read into this is:

• Total First Downs, Hawks 68, Opponents 75. Keep in mind, this stat is the overall 1st Downs, and does not specifically reflect the 3rd Down Conversion Rate, but obviously the opponents are collecting more 1st Downs then our Hawks are.
• Rushing/Passing/Penalty, Hawks 20 rushes & 39 passes, Opponents 16 rushes & 51 passes. Row Two, shows that the Hawk's passing attack is gaining more 1st Downs than the running game is, and by about a 2 to 1 margin. For a team that wants to be closer to 50% run & 50% pass, this seems to be out of kilter, so I'll agree with those above that point to the damaged offensive line. Also, see those opponent's stats, that's not normal; it's what happens when we have the 31st ranked passing defense in the league, and we do...
• Third Down Conversions made, Row Three (not highlighted). That's the 10/33 stat. Having only 33 conversion attempts over a span of 3 games isn't really a very big sample size, but even if it was 66 conversion attempts, I still don't believe the overall success % would change very much.
• Me... I'm tired of watching this offense throw the ball on every single Third & Three Yards To Go play. As much as I like RG Phil Haynes as a backup offensive lineman, I like the idea of 332 LB Rookie RG Anthony Bradford even better!
• Your turn... I'd like to know what do you read into it?

ProFootballReference.com gives us the following
View attachment 60901
Here's what I am seeing:

• Once again, other than that top box, this screen also does not provide us with just the 3rd Down Conversion information desired. The next two boxes are cumulative; meaning those conversations could have been made on 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down, or 4th down.
• Team Conversions Box, Third Down Attempts 33, Third Down Conversions 10, Third Down Percentage 30.3%. We all know that championship teams end up being much closer to 50% than 30%. That's the frustrating part here!
• Passing Box, this looks like a very suspicious culprit to me. Notice that Geno Smith has a Cmp% of 68.9 percent, but seven stats over to the right, he only holds a Succ% of 54.6 when trying to convert. That's a huge drop off.
• Rushing & Receiving Box, with an overall Succ% of 52.6 percent, this looks like another very suspicious culprit to me, as that rushing Succ% of 52.6 percent is a lot higher than the team's overall all 3rd Down Conversion Rate of only 30.3 percent.
• Me... I'm coming to the same former conclusion that this team is passing too much on Third Down with 3 or fewer yards to go for the 1st Down Conversion. They do have a rushing average of 4.1 yards per carry overall, with Kenneth Walker averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and Zack Charbonnet averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Other than possibly within the Red Zone, I'm not seeing the opposing teams loading the box against our run game on 3rd and 3 yards or less.
• Your turn again... Maybe you see something here that I completely whiffed on?

A few other last second thoughts I have to add:

• JSN seemed to be running deeper & more productive routes in the pre-season. That was before both he and the offensive line were hit by injuries. Jet sweeps don't enthuse me much. JSN is not Dee Eskridge.
• Will Dissly is also banged up, and I do regard him as being part of the 3rd Down Conversion Rate solution.
• Hawk's 31st ranked Defense needs to get off the field on 3rd downs. That would allow our Offense to practice their own trade more often than they currently have been. Time of Posession has been just as big a problem for this team!
• Looks like LT Charles Cross will be out again. I like Forsythe in the running game, but can we get Peters in at LT as well, maybe run some 3 Offensive Tackle sets???

As stated, I wish more 3rd down information was available on the free sites. Those with access to the premium stat sites might very well come upwith better explanations than what I have outlined here. I'd be interested to see some of it.

Good job on thinking it out and forming your own perspective!!

Yeah I can see that there are a lot of factors that contribute to the issue. I guess we will just have to see how it plays out, and pay attention to how the Hawks move forward with adjustments in scheme and personal.

LTH

 

[LTH]

Hello LTH,

Found myself being very interested in your thread here! Only the internet wasn't yielding me the data needed to form a solid opinion on the Hawk's 3rd Down Conversion troubles. When I did find some of what that information, I didn't immediately understand the data that I did find. Here's what I have collected for you so far...

This comes from Seahawk's.com
View attachment 60900
My read into this is:

• Total First Downs, Hawks 68, Opponents 75. Keep in mind, this stat is the overall 1st Downs, and does not specifically reflect the 3rd Down Conversion Rate, but obviously the opponents are collecting more 1st Downs then our Hawks are.
• Rushing/Passing/Penalty, Hawks 20 rushes & 39 passes, Opponents 16 rushes & 51 passes. Row Two, shows that the Hawk's passing attack is gaining more 1st Downs than the running game is, and by about a 2 to 1 margin. For a team that wants to be closer to 50% run & 50% pass, this seems to be out of kilter, so I'll agree with those above that point to the damaged offensive line. Also, see those opponent's stats, that's not normal; it's what happens when we have the 31st ranked passing defense in the league, and we do...
• Third Down Conversions made, Row Three (not highlighted). That's the 10/33 stat. Having only 33 conversion attempts over a span of 3 games isn't really a very big sample size, but even if it was 66 conversion attempts, I still don't believe the overall success % would change very much.
• Me... I'm tired of watching this offense throw the ball on every single Third & Three Yards To Go play. As much as I like RG Phil Haynes as a backup offensive lineman, I like the idea of 332 LB Rookie RG Anthony Bradford even better!
• Your turn... I'd like to know what do you read into it?

ProFootballReference.com gives us the following
View attachment 60901
Here's what I am seeing:

• Once again, other than that top box, this screen also does not provide us with just the 3rd Down Conversion information desired. The next two boxes are cumulative; meaning those conversations could have been made on 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down, or 4th down.
• Team Conversions Box, Third Down Attempts 33, Third Down Conversions 10, Third Down Percentage 30.3%. We all know that championship teams end up being much closer to 50% than 30%. That's the frustrating part here!
• Passing Box, this looks like a very suspicious culprit to me. Notice that Geno Smith has a Cmp% of 68.9 percent, but seven stats over to the right, he only holds a Succ% of 54.6 when trying to convert. That's a huge drop off.
• Rushing & Receiving Box, with an overall Succ% of 52.6 percent, this looks like another very suspicious culprit to me, as that rushing Succ% of 52.6 percent is a lot higher than the team's overall all 3rd Down Conversion Rate of only 30.3 percent.
• Me... I'm coming to the same former conclusion that this team is passing too much on Third Down with 3 or fewer yards to go for the 1st Down Conversion. They do have a rushing average of 4.1 yards per carry overall, with Kenneth Walker averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and Zack Charbonnet averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Other than possibly within the Red Zone, I'm not seeing the opposing teams loading the box against our run game on 3rd and 3 yards or less.
• Your turn again... Maybe you see something here that I completely whiffed on?

A few other last second thoughts I have to add:

• JSN seemed to be running deeper & more productive routes in the pre-season. That was before both he and the offensive line were hit by injuries. Jet sweeps don't enthuse me much. JSN is not Dee Eskridge.
• Will Dissly is also banged up, and I do regard him as being part of the 3rd Down Conversion Rate solution.
• Hawk's 31st ranked Defense needs to get off the field on 3rd downs. That would allow our Offense to practice their own trade more often than they currently have been. Time of Posession has been just as big a problem for this team!
• Looks like LT Charles Cross will be out again. I like Forsythe in the running game, but can we get Peters in at LT as well, maybe run some 3 Offensive Tackle sets???

As stated, I wish more 3rd down information was available on the free sites. Those with access to the premium stat sites might very well come upwith better explanations than what I have outlined here. I'd be interested to see some of it.

How do I read into it? I think the Hawks are passing more than they are running on 3rd down because of injury on the O line and lack of continuity on the O line. I think they have more flexibility converting 3rd downs in the passing game because of those two factors? Am I right? Like I said we will just have to see it play out. But I can see you gave this some serious thought ... good job!


LTH

 

[renofox]

ZC would probably be very effective 3rd and short, but I haven't noticed PC using him there.

 

[Dvl Dug]

How do I read into it? I think the Hawks are passing more than they are running on 3rd down because of injury on the O line and lack of continuity on the O line. I think they have more flexibility converting 3rd downs in the passing game because of those two factors? Am I right? Like I said we will just have to see it play out. But I can see you gave this some serious thought ... good job!


LTH

LTH,

Can't say I know the answers either, I'm just trying to make sense out of the limited data on hand, and it's really limited.

I do remember seeing a televised stat two games back, and it happened to be shown in the lower left corner of my screen. Seahawk's had averaged about 6.5 yards on their first downs through the first half of that game. Our opponent averaged 10.7 yards on their first downs during that same first half.

How do you play competitive football when your defense surrenders 10.7 yards to the other team whenever they get the football, and on their very first play from scrimmage?

That drove me crazy, which is why I found your thread here to be so... Spot on appropriate!

 

[LTH]

How do you play competitive football when your defense surrenders 10.7 yards to the other team whenever they get the football, and on their very first play from scrimmage?

Well... you just keep working the problem on both sides of the ball with scheme tweaks and personel tweeks until they figure it out.

I think defensively the Hawks are going to be giving some different looks now that Spoon , Woolen and Adams are on the field together. It's probably going to take a few weeks for them to gel but I think the Hawks D is going to be very good!

Offensively, the continuity on that O line is really important. I'm amazed they have done as well as they have.

This is a good thing that these back ups are getting some playing time. I have no problem with that at all because I think when the second part of the season comes around, and they are playing some of the tougher teams in the league , They need to know what their depth is capable of. They are getting that look early. The more those back ups get snaps, the better off the back ups are going to be able to contribute when it really counts. So from my perspective I'm elated at what's happening now, especially that they are winning in in a less than favorable situation.

Just my take


LTH

 

[Dvl Dug]

Well... you just keep working the problem on both sides of the ball with scheme tweaks and personel tweeks until they figure it out.

I think defensively the Hawks are going to be giving some different looks now that Spoon , Woolen and Adams are on the field together. It's probably going to take a few weeks for them to gel but I think the Hawks D is going to be very good!

Offensively, the continuity on that O line is really important. I'm amazed they have done as well as they have.

This is a good thing that these back ups are getting some playing time. I have no problem with that at all because I think when the second part of the season comes around, and they are playing some of the tougher teams in the league , They need to know what their depth is capable of. They are getting that look early. The more those back ups get snaps, the better off the back ups are going to be able to contribute when it really counts. So from my perspective I'm elated at what's happening now, especially that they are winning in in a less than favorable situation.

Just my take


LTH

Agree 100%.

 

[scutterhawk]

I think part of it is on Waldron. I think that the Hawks have the ability to make plays with every skilled position group.

I think part of it is with continuity on the O line

Do you agree with that ? Do you have something to add?

LTH

^This^ and I suspect that Pete likes to set a slower pace in the first half, and then turn the dogs loose in the second half when the Defenses are a little slower to react when the playbook gets turned to another page.
The problem with Game one was that Rete's reserved Strategy backfired on him for two reasons, first & foremost, his two Starting Tackles go down, & the playbook get's tossed aside, as NOW he has to reconfigure; Second reason for failure---> McVay KNOWS Pete's tendencies pretty damned well, and he's he's learned to adjust accordingly....Shanahan knows what Pete likes to do too, and also has the dogs that know how to hunt.
Playing those two teams twice a year means we have a lot of familiarity & film on those teams, trouble is...They too have film & familiarity on the Seahawks.

 

[LTH]

^This^ and I suspect that Pete likes to set a slower pace in the first half, and then turn the dogs loose in the second half when the Defenses are a little slower to react when the playbook gets turned to another page.
The problem with Game one was that Rete's reserved Strategy backfired on him for two reasons, first & foremost, his two Starting Tackles go down, & the playbook get's tossed aside, as NOW he has to reconfigure; Second reason for failure---> McVay KNOWS Pete's tendencies pretty damned well, and he's he's learned to adjust accordingly....Shanahan knows what Pete likes to do too, and also has the dogs that know how to hunt.
Playing those two teams twice a year means we have a lot of familiarity & film on those teams, trouble is...They too have film & familiarity on the Seahawks.

I agree...

This O is going to be almost unstoppable when they get it going. It'd not close to running to full efficiency. IMO they are stumbling still but putting up 37 points in each of two games? That's pretty dang cool. When this team gets healthy and when they find they're rhythm... the position groups are devastating, as well as deep.


LTH

 

[Fudwamper]

The football world is going to copy a high school play action play? This guy reads way more into this then what's there.

Lets look at the good. Motioning a man from splits to trips/or bunch.... Tries to give the QB a sense of whos in zone vs man. Tells the QB ok who are my main reads.

Play-action with pulling to the wide side, does sell the run better, does move the Will away from the designated play side. We have levels on the short side a staple of pete ball.

This play is standard pete ball. No real concept of making mismatches and exploiting if they are in zone or man.

Now is this formation and this play matching up people to win? Is it beating a zone or man concept? You need to really be running the ball effectively for this play to really work.

The MLB the DE and the Will all need to be over pursuing and following the fake for this play to work. This type of play works well when you are matching up well against an opponent.

Now was it a good play to call with how we were playing the panthers, yes.

 

[Bear-Hawk]

On the flip side, has anybody noticed that the Seahawks defense has allowed opponents 100% 3rd down conversion?