dusktreader
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I had a lot of fun writing up some points of reality last week and discussing them before the game. I decided to go ahead and do another set for this week and see how it went. To be honest, this week was a little harder. I think Charger fans are a lot more realistic about this game than Packer Backers were last week. I don't think this is as good a match-up, either, so it's hard to call out optimism on the part of the 12's. However, this week isn't a gimme at all, so here's 12 things that I think might be getting overlooked or downplayed by both fan bases.
For the Seahawk Fans
For the Chargers Fans
For the Seahawk Fans
- Depth at CB is developing into a serious weakness
Last week, Burley looked lost on quite a few plays. In the first three games of the season, the Seahawks face three of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The ‘Hawks fared well against Aaron Rodgers in week 1, but he did manage to expose the glaring gap in our secondary on our Nickel packages. Burley and Thomas are going to have to come up to speed very quickly to plug the most obvious weakness in Seattle’s best-in-the-NFL defense. If they can’t get it figured out, Russell and the offense are going to have their work cut out for them matching the passing attack of Rivers and Manning.
- The edge rush is going to be a challenge for Justin Britt again
After a decent showing last week, Britt will get no rest in the second game of his rookie year. Sunday he’ll face another veteran edge rusher in Dwight Freeny and a promising rookie in Jerry Attaochu. Freeny may have lost a step in recent years, but he is no less a threat. Zach Miller really shored up the right side and helped Britt establish some good protection for Wilson, and hopefully he will again help Britt anchor down the right side of the pocket. Britt’s entrance into the NFL is no less than a trial by fire, and, while he shows potential, there are still a lot of rough edges to melt away.
- The heat will be a factor
It won’t be as big of an obstacle as some Charger fans are hoping, but it will undoubtedly be a factor. Fortunately, the Seahawks have had a warm summer to train in this year, but down on the field in Qualcomm stadium on Sunday, it is going to be nothing but hot. The blazing San Diego sun will also find the ‘Hawks wearing their ‘College Navy-Blue’ jerseys. The defense will need to get off the field early and often to avoid getting gassed out by relentless long drives orchestrated by Philip Rivers.
- The Chargers offense will be tighter than it was last week
It looked like San Diego had the game well in hand last week until late in the second half. Then, it looked like mental discipline started to break down, and the Cardinals took full advantage to tie a win on. This week, the Chargers should look more put together and will probably play tighter for all 4 quarters. This is an offense that thrives on long drives that exhaust opposing defenses, and it should not be surprising to see San Diego’s unit come out more in sync and ready to play a full game. The LOB will need to help get the offense back on the field early and often.
- Rivers is a real threat at QB
Of the 3 quarterbacks that the Seahawks face in their opening three weeks, Philip Rivers could prove to be their greatest challenge. He’s more of a wild-card passer than Rodgers, and his passes arrive quicker than Peyton Manning. Many are forgetting that last year, Rivers came in 4th in TD passes, 4th in QB rating, and recorded the highest completion percentage of starting QBs. Philip Rivers has the stones to challenge Sherman, and will probably be successful more than once. He is also sure to pick relentlessly at the #3 cornerback when the Seahawks field their Nickel defense. Rivers has proven himself a gunslinger that will spread the ball all over the field to expose any openings that the Seahawks show him.
- Overusing Harvin is dangerous
Harvin is a great competitor and an unreal playmaker, but the Seahawks cannot lean on him to be the center of their offensive schemes. Harvin’s fragility is massively overblown by sports media, but he is not invincible. Percy has a light frame and does not shy away from contact. He runs through the middle of the field fearlessly and at a blinding pace. There are sure to be Strong Safeties and Linebackers just dying to put a hit on Harvin’s when he crosses their faces in the middle. Percy is a unique weapon that should be exploited both for his play-making ability and the respect that he demands from defenses. However, the team should spread touches out to other receivers, especially now that Harvin has proven on film just how badly he can gash an unsuspecting defense.
For the Chargers Fans
- No one on the team is overlooking Philip Rivers
One of the most essential tenets of Pete Carroll's philosophy is treating every day like a championship. This team is not focused on or planning for Denver at all right now. Instead, the sights of the entire defensive unit are focused on Philip Rivers and shutting him down. Dan Quinn knows just how much of a threat that Rivers poses, and he knows that letting San Diego’s franchise QB orchestrate long scoring drives can wear down even the best defense. Sports media figures and Seahawk fans may foolishly write off Philip Rivers, but you can bet your boots that the folks drawing up the defensive game plan for Sunday have Rivers circled in red ink.
- You cannot win on River’s arm alone
Despite the capability that Rivers has to carry his team, it won’t be enough against the Seahawks. This defense thrives on punishing an offense for even slight mistakes. Rivers is a gunslinger that likes to take risks and challenge perennial all-pros in the secondary. That sort of maverick play-making can pay off big-time in a shootout against marquee AFC QBs. Against the ‘Hawks, though, mistakes and turnovers turn into check marks in the L column very quickly. The Chargers will need to balance their offensive attack with a strong running game, and they will need their backs to relentlessly protect the ball.
- Running between the tackles is no easy task
Establishing the run game against the Seahawks is a huge challenge. This is a very high-tempo defense filled with ball-hawks. They love to swarm the ball carrier and turn potential big plays into minimal yardage gains. To get the run game going, the Chargers will need to pound the rock at the middle of Seattle’s front 4. However, standing in their way is an often overlooked and underrated Brandon Mebane. The Packer’s struggled to make yardage up the gut with an elite power rusher in Eddie Lacy because of Mebane and Wagner’s capability to fill up and crash down running lanes. *t will be no easier for San Diego’s suspect rushers Matthews and Woodhead.
- You have to do more than stop Lynch and contain Wilson
Over the past two years, Seahawk fans have witnessed other teams’ strategists (armchair or otherwise) repeat these two concepts like mantras: “Stop Lynch and we will win” and “Contain Russell Wilson and we will win.” It’s not enough. Wilson recorded a 100+ passer rating from both inside and outside the pocket in 2013. The only other QB to do the same last year was Peyton Manning. Plus, the Seahawks have way too many weapons on offense to focus only on Marshawn Lynch. Lots of teams have stacked the box to try to stop Marshawn, and many have done so successfully. However, very, very few teams have successfully stopped Lynch and shut down Russell Wilson. Even then, those successes came last year against a team missing two of its starting WRs and a train wreck of an O-line. 2014’s Seahawks are bristling with offensive weapons, and to win they all have to be accounted for.
- The LOB isn’t the only pass protection you need to worry about
All the media attention on the LOB distracts many NFL fans from another cornerstone of Seattle’s defense. The Seahawks field one of the best coverage linebacker units in the NFL. Bobby Wagner is excellent against the run, but he also commands the short middle of the field with authority. KJ Wright is an absolute freak when it comes to pass coverage. With his startling wingspan and surprising speed, Wright has demonstrated his ability to erase pro-bowl caliber TEs that were racking up catches against other teams. Malcolm Smith also plays pass coverage very well, and excels at being in the right place at the right time to generate turnovers. Figuring out how to get completions on the Legion is such a difficult task, it’s plain to see how easily analysts and fans overlook one of the fastest LB groups in the NFL.
- The Seahawks are not a different team on the road
In 2013, the ‘Hawks lost twice on the road. The first loss happened in a shootout with a very feisty Indianapolis team in a game filled with mental errors and just plain bad luck. The second loss came against a very tough 49ers team in a brutal defensive battle that went back and forth for 4 quarters. Media pundits love to talk about Seattle’s road woes, but they are repeating an idea that’s been old news since the second half of Russell Wilson’s rookie year. This team takes their game to the doorstep of any host that they face away, and nothing proves their roadworthiness more than the absolute beat-down they laid on the Broncos clear on the opposite seaboard. Home-field advantage is real, but it has no more effect on the Seahawks than any other premium NFL team
