nategreat":2o73j93b said:
Hmmmm..... I'm not sure where you guys went to school to get your math education, but I'm pretty sure it goes more like this:
Arizona= currently 9-2
Seattle= currently 6-5
So in theory, Arizona can lose three games, and as long as we win out, we'll have the same record. And same record doesn't necessarily mean they'll have the tie-breaker.
For a division tie-break between two teams, it goes like this:
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
So in our case, assuming we win out, our division record would be 4-2 and our conference record would be 8-4. Again, assuming we win out, that would mean we'd beat Arizona. This would bring our head-to-head with Arizona @ 1-1, eliminating that tie-breaking procedure.
Next, let's look @ Arizona. All 5 of their remaining games are Conference games. Obviously it would be best if they lost to the Rams coming up because that would mean that they could lose any one other game (and against us), and we'd win the division based on best division record, with Arizona finishing 3-3.
However, let's say the Cardinals beat the Rams, but they still lose two other games before playing us. Again, assuming we win out, we'd finish with the same division record as well, @ 4-2. Which brings us to common games.
..... alright I hate to cut this post short, but I doubt many are reading it anyways. I'll wrap it up....
...my point is that the Cardinals mathematically still have to win THREE more games in order to win the division. If they lose any two games before playing us, and we beat them and win out @ 11-5, we still have a shot for the division via the common game and subsequent tie-breakers.
If the Seahawks win out, the path to the NFC West title can be broken down into four possible scenarios.
Scenario one: Seahawks win remaining five games and Arizona loses four more games. Seahawks capture the division with the better overall record.
Scenario two: Seahawks win remaining five games, Arizona loses to St. Louis, and Arizona loses at least one of their remaining three games against Minnesota, Philadelphia, or Green Bay. Seahawks capture division record tie breaker.
Scenario three: Seahawks win remaining five games, Arizona beats St. Louis, and Arizona loses to both Minnesota and Green Bay. Seahawks capture the common opponents tie breaker.
Scenario four: Seahawks win remaining five games, Arizona beats St. Louis, Arizona loses to Philadelphia and either Minnesota or Green Bay. Seahawks capture the strength of victory tiebreaker.
It's also possible for the Seahawks to lose another game and still capture the division if Arizona loses four more games and the Seahawks capture one of the tie breakers, which would depend on which team the Seahawks lost to and which opponent Arizona beat. Obviously, it's very unlikely for Arizona to lose four of their last five games.