With the 18th pick…

[Ozzy]

So I took AgentDib's chart and added the original draft position of free agents and trades, because I don't feel that the distinction of being obtained from another team is all that absolute and I wanted to see if the numbers would bear that out.

I then took the liberty of regarding picks from #32-40 as first-round picks for two reasons: 1) a lot of us are aware that there isn't that much difference in talent from pick #15 to pick #40; 2) #40 seemed a good cutoff because, at least right now, there's a desert in picks from #40-50 on NFL offensive lines.

Here were the results.

View attachment 69005

It did a fair amount more for the top half than the bottom half. In light of that, in addition to OL being a strength of this draft, I might be up for going OL in round 1 this year for sure, unless a defensive front seven stud falls to us.

But what this chart tells me more than anything is that being tops in offensive line quality doesn't guarantee you run the table. The top 7 OL's include the Colts, Falcons, 49ers, and Jets, none of whom made it. On the other hand, seven playoff teams (including 4 division winners) range from #14-#24. I'm willing to bet that would go against most people's expectations, but it matches the trend over the last 15-20 years that the offensive line is actually declining as a predictor of a team's quality.

I tend to think it'll be an OL pick because of the draft's strength and the need to protect a 35-year-old QB we'll be stuck with. But if we take someone else who's good and he's not an OL, I won't lose sleep.

I made this point earlier in the year. Every time Geno was being defended they would claim every monster QB year had to be because their lines were elite. That's not the case. Some of the high powered offenses had bad lines.....its not the predictor it was in the past.

This is sort of good news for Seattle though. You don't have to have a great line but it appears you have to have at least an average line and they can get there.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

The Lions have FOUR first round picks on their O line. Now that's investing where it counts.

They also sucked for a long time and had high picks.

 

[Appyhawk]

Dominate LOS on both sides of the ball and you will dominate in the W/L column as well. Football 1.01.

 

[Germanhawk7]

Trade back pick up another 2. Round and draft Jaxson Dart.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I made this point earlier in the year. Every time Geno was being defended they would claim every monster QB year had to be because their lines were elite. That's not the case. Some of the high powered offenses had bad lines.....its not the predictor it was in the past.

This is sort of good news for Seattle though. You don't have to have a great line but it appears you have to have at least an average line and they can get there.

It's not BECAUSE they're being protected by monster lines, but it's significantly easier to play excellent football as a quarterback when you're basically playing 7 on 7.

If you don't have a great line, you need to be able to run the ball to keep the defense in a state where they have to diagnose and react.

If you can do neither of those things (as in, you cannot do it well even if you have to), then the vast majority of quarterbacks are toast. They're not going to be able to carry that alone.

That's what I've been trying to say. We don't need the Lions or Eagles line - those are RARE. We just need functionality so that we can run a multifaceted offense that puts the quarterback in a position to succeed.

Made the point about Geno, made the same point about Russ, and will make the same point about any quarterback. Successful coaches ask what they can do for their quarterback, not what their quarterbacks can do for them. Football in the modern era is about making your quarterbacks job easier.

 

[Ozzy]

I agree. I think Seattle was spoiled with Russ because he was able to evade pressure and run. People like to kill Russ for sacks but the line was just as bad for most of his tenure.

But the modern offenses if you have a unicorn like Burrow can work around it with a smart offense and a QB who can read a defense extremely well. I think the take home message is that the Seaahwks don't have to have a top 5 line. If you can just bring it up into the middle of the pack, with this defense I think Seattle is a team that can make some noise finally which they haven't done in almost a decade. We need a decent line to get over the hump.

They are in a better position than most teams with bad lines to turn it around quickly too. The tackle spots require draft capital that rivals quarterbacks but you already have that. You can draft a massive improvement on the interior in the 2nd round for example. If they are smart they can drastically improve this line.

 

[SonicHawk]

Joe Burrow may be the best QB in the league. Maybe second to Lamar? Mahomes 3rd, yet #1 in the playoffs.

 

[Shane Falco]

I agree that the Hawks don't have to have the best line or even a top 5. But at least top 15. You can win with that or at least I should say that it won't be a detriment and we all can stop talking about it day in and day out every season.

Not that I wouldn't love to see the Hawks with one of the top olines in the league though. Remember SA's 1880 yard, 27 td season?

The 90's Cowboys and Emmit Smith or the Ravens this year with Henry, Philly and Barkley. That's what I love. Being able to pound the rock even when they know it's coming. That's my kind of team.

 

[Wsumatt1982]

I think we work on our line in FA. I'm hoping Trey Smith but will likely be next tier down. Then we can just draft BPA at 18 or likely trade down to pick up another pick. I still see whoever BPA is whenever we pick, I bet it's in the front 7 on the defense.

 

[warden]

I know both of our OT's are playing in their contract years and Lucas as long term is up in the air still but I'd hate to use that first pick on strictly an OT. I know some of the guys project to move inside, which is fine but they need a stud guard in the worst way. Whether the first, second or FA, they better be looking at that position hard. I wouldn't mind a DT in the first and OG second if they could still land a good one or make a splash in FA on the position.

We do have the 5th year option on Cross

 

[warden]

I made this point earlier in the year. Every time Geno was being defended they would claim every monster QB year had to be because their lines were elite. That's not the case. Some of the high powered offenses had bad lines.....its not the predictor it was in the past.

This is sort of good news for Seattle though. You don't have to have a great line but it appears you have to have at least an average line and they can get there.

There is 4 to 5 QBs in The league that can excel with sub par talent around them. That is it. Everyone else needs a strong supporting cast to succeed

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Bad decisions are still...........bad decisions.

 

[Wsumatt1982]

The more I watch of him, the more I see Jalon Walker as a Seahawk. He is a MM type of guy because he can be moved all over the field and with the right coaching could excel anywhere you line him up