With the 18th pick…

[AgentDib]

Easy to say if you were hitting on mid to late round picks like the Packers or spending money like the Chiefs. Neither of which JS has done.

Easy to say that when you pick a couple teams that are an exception to the rule. Now do that list for the top 10 offensive lines in the league and include contracts that they've paid out.

Of course, and my point is only referring to draft capital. It's true that we haven't paid OL, but how much of that is because the OL we have drafted haven't really been worth big extensions? It's more that we're drafting the wrong people rather than not drafting the position, and taking a guard at #16 isn't going to magically fix the line.

Easy to say that when you pick a couple teams that are an exception to the rule. Now do that list for the top 10 offensive lines in the league and include contracts that they've paid out.

For the record the teams I listed (Rams, Vikings, Packers) were just three teams I had looked at because we played them last. They weren't selected to prove a point. I do recommend doing the same exercise for other teams, as this is a trend I've noticed over the last few years worth of opponents.

 

[Rat]

JS should have just let Holmgren make the IL picks first him. We would have a top 10 OL right now, and not be in this mess

Aside from being gifted Hutchinson, he didn't really make any great iOL picks either.

 

[Shane Falco]

I have done that excercise, very recently, with the top 15 offensive lines. They all have some form of combination of draft capital, FA spending, and extension spending. They do what it takes to get the job done using all avenues.

We are unique. We have 1 high draft pick, no FA spending, and no extensions to our own players. Largely because we haven't hit on mid to late round picks is the lack of extensions.

Nobody thinks you have to have 3 or 4 high draft picks on the oline. You do have to have a couple very good players with some above average players to fill out the rest if you want to be in the upper half of the league though. And typically the chances are higher the higher you draft them. And if you know the GM is not going to go out and sign a guy to $50M - $80M then you hope for something more than a 3rd round guy in the draft when your oline is in the shape ours is in.

 

[Shane Falco]

Aside from being gifted Hutchinson, he didn't really make any great iOL picks either.

I was going to say that. Big Walt was already here. They signed Robbie Tobeck which was solid but not all pro or anything.

They had 2 studs (granted HOF studs), a dependable center and average right side and was considered if not the top then one of the top olines in the league.

 

[nwHawk]

JS should have just let Holmgren make the IL picks first him. We would have a top 10 OL right now, and not be in this mess

Different era of college football lineman (and offensive game styles). Holmy might have similar issues current day.

 

[Chukarhawk]

Tate Ratledge, Highest rated guard in the draft. Dude is a run blocking beast. That's the guy I want.

 

[Ozzy]

My early prediction is TE and then guard in round 2.

 

[City Of Reign]

I know I might get some heat, but I would not get mad if they took Deone Walker at 18. Who are you gonna double team on dline with Murphy, Williams and Walker? A pipe dream, sue me

 

[SoulfishHawk]

The Seahawks Select...............whatever player makes dot net lose their minds!!!!

/sarcasm

 

[Maelstrom787]

Don't care about the position. Just want talent, durability, and preferably attitude.

 

[AgentDib]

For those who are interested, here's where each team got their current OL starter next to the PFF Pass Block (Pb)/Run Block(Rb) scores.

 

[bman75]

18th is a good position for an impact IOL if we go that way.

 

[Shane Falco]

For those who are interested, here's where each team got their current OL starter next to the PFF Pass Block (Pb)/Run Block(Rb) scores.

View attachment 68996

Really nice chart. Off the top of my head I know that Vikings LT is a 1st and Packers RG is a 1st, both on IR. The other thing that would be interesting is if it was instead of listed as FA, it showed the actual contract. I mean a guy on a 1yr $3M versus a guy getting 4yr $60M says a lot about how they built the line. Like % of big contracts vs small deals, etc. Also, extension contracts would be cool too. But interesting chart none the less.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

So I took AgentDib's chart and added the original draft position of free agents and trades, because I don't feel that the distinction of being obtained from another team is all that absolute and I wanted to see if the numbers would bear that out.

I then took the liberty of regarding picks from #32-40 as first-round picks for two reasons: 1) a lot of us are aware that there isn't that much difference in talent from pick #15 to pick #40; 2) #40 seemed a good cutoff because, at least right now, there's a desert in picks from #40-50 on NFL offensive lines.

Here were the results.



It did a fair amount more for the top half than the bottom half. In light of that, in addition to OL being a strength of this draft, I might be up for going OL in round 1 this year for sure, unless a defensive front seven stud falls to us.

But what this chart tells me more than anything is that being tops in offensive line quality doesn't guarantee you run the table. The top 7 OL's include the Colts, Falcons, 49ers, and Jets, none of whom made it. On the other hand, seven playoff teams (including 4 division winners) range from #14-#24. I'm willing to bet that would go against most people's expectations, but it matches the trend over the last 15-20 years that the offensive line is actually declining as a predictor of a team's quality.

I tend to think it'll be an OL pick because of the draft's strength and the need to protect a 35-year-old QB we'll be stuck with. But if we take someone else who's good and he's not an OL, I won't lose sleep.

 

[irfuben32]

I know I might get some heat, but I would not get mad if they took Deone Walker at 18. Who are you gonna double team on dline with Murphy, Williams and Walker? A pipe dream, sue me

I am off Deone Walker and now Kenneth Grant is main man.

If we can come out of the first two rounds with a guard and Kenneth Grant it doesn't really matter to me what we do with the rest of the draft.

 

[irfuben32]

I am off Deone Walker and now Kenneth Grant is my main man.

If we can come out of the first two rounds with a guard and Kenneth Grant it doesn't really matter to me what we do with the rest of the draft.

 

[CPHawk]

The Seahawks Select...............whatever player makes dot net lose their minds!!!!

/sarcasm

So Quinn Ewers

 

[Shane Falco]

But what this chart tells me more than anything is that being tops in offensive line quality doesn't guarantee you run the table. The top 7 OL's include the Colts, Falcons, 49ers, and Jets, none of whom made it.

I don't know where he got the pass block / run block rankings on that chart, but they seem pretty far off if looking at most sites that provide that kind of data. I don't think any of those 4 teams are in the top 10. The Colts are 4th in run block win rate, and the 49ers are 14th in pass block win rate and all the rest of the numbers for those four teams are not even top 15 according to espn for example.

 

[James in PA]

The Lions have FOUR first round picks on their O line. Now that's investing where it counts.

 

[Rat]

Id note that with the Lions, their best OL by far is Penei Sewell, who they didn't really draft due to some special emphasis on the offensive line, but more because they were gifted an elite prospect who had no business falling to the 7th pick. If the Dolphins had taken him instead of a second receiver, the Lions probably end up with Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, or Micah Parsons and they don't really stand out on that chart.

It's a good lesson though. If a superior prospect at a different position than our top priority falls to 18, it'd be mistake to pass on him for an average guard prospect just because we need iOL more.