I understand why some would be unhappy when we get heavily outscored in the second half. What actually matters is whether we win or lose.
It is often the correct call to play soft on defense and ultra conservative on offense to cement the win even if it means giving up score differential. There were two bad plays in a row that the defense would like to have back:
- 4thQ 13:42 22 yard pass to Julio Jones (-4.4% WP)
- 4thQ 13:31 19 yard pass to Calvin Ridley (-3.3% WP)
Other than those two plays, the defense did their job in securing a win. You can see that the second falcons TD is barely even a blip on the WP chart because the time expended forced them into onside kick mode.
What about the chance that the Falcons may get an onside kick recovery to get back in the game? The NFL currently has a major onside kick problem. This query at PFR tracks onside kick recovery rate over the last two seasons and there have been just 5 recoveries out of nearly 80 attempts. Even that is too high for a realistic rate because it includes surprise onside kicks such as Parkey's last week. When a team is expecting an onside kick it is nearly impossible under the current rule set, because players can no longer get a running start and they can no longer overload one side of the field.
It is often the correct call to play soft on defense and ultra conservative on offense to cement the win even if it means giving up score differential. There were two bad plays in a row that the defense would like to have back:
- 4thQ 13:42 22 yard pass to Julio Jones (-4.4% WP)
- 4thQ 13:31 19 yard pass to Calvin Ridley (-3.3% WP)
Other than those two plays, the defense did their job in securing a win. You can see that the second falcons TD is barely even a blip on the WP chart because the time expended forced them into onside kick mode.
What about the chance that the Falcons may get an onside kick recovery to get back in the game? The NFL currently has a major onside kick problem. This query at PFR tracks onside kick recovery rate over the last two seasons and there have been just 5 recoveries out of nearly 80 attempts. Even that is too high for a realistic rate because it includes surprise onside kicks such as Parkey's last week. When a team is expecting an onside kick it is nearly impossible under the current rule set, because players can no longer get a running start and they can no longer overload one side of the field.