kearly":26b7ka1n said:
I don't watch all-22, nor do I have any interest in it. This theory came straight out of my rear end, and could be totally wrong. But it's a suspicion of mine, and I wonder what the rest of you think.
I've been complaining about Seattle's lack of deep passing all season, even in the early weeks when we had a few big plays via the deep ball. In the first 3 games, Seattle had about 1-2 deep completions per game, and during this time Wilson averaged less than 20 yards rushing a game.
Since then, he's played 3 more games, and we've had almost zero success on play action deep looks, while Wilson has exploded as a rusher, averaging 80 yards per game during that span.
One of the disadvantages of man coverage is that it leaves you exposed to big rushing plays from the QB when the offense sends the receivers deep. Basically, the defenders follow the receivers and this leaves huge sections of green grass for the QB. Is it possible that whatever extra vigilance teams are using to take away the deep ball is benefitting Wilson as a runner? I have no idea if it is or not, because I don't know. It's just pure causality with some logic behind it.
It's worth noting too that Wilson is not Kaepernick. He's not racking up very many of these yards on option keepers and designed plays. On most of them, he looks and looks and looks for a deep throw before taking off.
Whatever the reason, I have been extremely impressed with Wilson's decision making as a runner this season. Not only is he making the correct decisions and making plays with his feet, but he's much more decisive at it than last year. I don't think he's going to finish with 1000 yards rushing, but he very well might lead the NFL in QB rushing first downs by the time the season is over. And since this has happened 3 games in a row, I am beginning to suspect that Wilson's rushing improvisation has become a staple of our offensive gameplan. Not just an option B, but an option A for a lot of plays.
Yeah, absolutely I'd say you're correct. That said, Russell Wilson seemingly running all the time frankly scares the heck out of me. Yes, I know that he appears to know when to go down and how to avoid taking the full on jarring body shots ... but all it takes is just 1 overly-zealous defender who has a "sweep the leg Cobra Kai" mentality and a full head of steam and Wilson could be seriously hurt. I'm completely with Holmgren on that.
The lack of a deep passing game (and the lack of fear of a true HR threat) is really hurting us IMO (i.e. Harvin's absence.) That, the offensive line issues, and what appears to be painfully simple offensive schemes is hamstringing the Hawks and are reasons why you've seen an increasing number of Wilson runs. In this last game, several times they flashed an All-22 aerial view from above on a few of those Wilson runs ... and EVERY TIME you could see that the Titans basically had everyone covered. That's an issue in my opinion.
Now, will Zack Miller's return and Percy Harvin's incorporation in to this offense help? Certainly I believe that it will. But the problems go deeper than that IMO. Seattle is averaging 13.3 Yards/Reception -- that's the 5th Highest Yards/Reception in the NFL. Last season, Seattle had a 12.5 Yards/Reception average -- again finishing in the Top 5 in that category.
Now I'm not complaining about that whatsoever per se ... but the pattern has become pretty transparent to opposing defensive coordinators. Seattle (when they pass the ball) is a long strike offense -- most times they are looking to hit those 12-15 yard+ patterns. Unfortunately, up to this point, this hasn't been a team that's filled with tons of guys who are exceedingly fast and can really strike fear in to an opposing defensive backfield (i.e. a receiver who can run in the 4.3's.) So, coordinators have looked at Bevell's schemes ... looked at Seattle's personnel ... and have been (for the most part) been able to cover our receivers fairly well.
That said, I WAS a bit encouraged towards the 3rd and 4th Quarters where you all of a sudden started seeing some of the misdirection and quick hitting WR screens being incorporated in there. They have GOT to have a lot more of those quick hitters (3 step drop, get the ball out fast) kind of routes if this offense is going to be successful long term. Percy Harvin was an absolute master at turning those 5 yard receptions in to 15-20 yard gains when he was in Minnesota. It's my hope that we'll start to see those kind of routes become a part of our offense when he comes back.
Holmgren and others have pointed out that this offense has at times been too predictable (kind of ironic, as that was a complaint that I leveled against Holmgren's teams all the time.) He's right though, as that predictability, coupled with all the other issues I noted above is directly correlated with the massive increase in Russell Wilson scrambles. I'm not saying I'm opposed to Wilson calling his own number and taking off on occasion (far from it.) What I'm saying is ... is that we're going to that well far too often IMO.
In the end, I'd say you're right Kearly in your contention that Wilson's rushes DO appear to have become Option A in many cases. My response to that (and to Bevell) would be: Create Other Options by mixing it up (short, long, trap runs, screens, etc.) and doing the unexpected at times (what's happened to a lot of those trick plays we saw last year?). Otherwise, you are seriously gambling, as it's just a matter of time before Wilson is being taken off on the golf cart.
