Wilson and the short middle (last thread on the topic)

[Laloosh]

Haven't been on much this off-season but something that I've been meaning to do is come back to the numbers that I posted on this topic before and during the 2015 season.

If you dont like or care about stats, feel free to press the "back" button now.

Last September, I posted this thread on the topic of Russell Wilson and passes over the middle. At the time, there was a lot of discussion about Wilson being unable (or limited in his ability to) find receivers in the middle of the field. In particular, the short middle.

With that in mind, I decided to look for any statistical indicators that could help to answer the question. After Graham went down after week 11 (I think?), I posted this and now I'm simply going back to see how the numbers turned out.

This thread will be a quick summary of what we saw in 2015 compared to previous seasons and I'll leave it to any interested parties to decide what they think it does or does not say.

Before I get to the stats, two things:
1. I made a mistake in my initial queries by not calculating league average for "% of Ttl Att" using QBs with 100+ attempts (or more) during the season. It had a pretty dramatic impact on the number. While I am not going to go back and correct the old thread, I felt that the difference was enough to warrant calling it out here.

2. I am not a math guy so feel free to correct any mistakes on my part but don't jump my ass about math. Here's a google doc w/ some of the info below.

That said, here's how the numbers worked out:

Top 10 rated passers (to the short middle) in 2015:


The big take away for me here is that Russell's volume of short middle passes jumped pretty significantly as a percentage of his total attempts (12.9% from 2012-2014 to 17.39% in 2015). For me, it's an indicator that play design and scheme are a real factor that led to some of the criticism (unless someone can point to film that suggests Russell is seeing people that he did not from 2012-2014).

Wilson's Targets by Position and by player:






Graham was far and away the target of most passes over the middle when he was healthy. When he went down, volume remained about the same but the ball got spread around and production took a real hit (by that, I mean over the short middle, not the offense in general). See below.

Weeks 1-11 (short middle passing):


Weeks 12-15 (short middle passing):


Seems pretty straight forward. Big target with large catching radius and athleticism goes down, production goes down with them. It is interesting to me that volume didn't go down after Jimmy's injury and (to me) indicates that despite the media jumping on the whole "the offense took off because Jimmy wasn't around" has no real basis in fact. If he'd been part of the offense during those last 5 games, I think our offense would have been even more productive in this area and overall.

Just one copy/paste from my first post on the topic but another consideration is that the interception rate over the middle of the field (short and deep) are significantly higher than other areas.

Interception rates by area of the field 2012-2014:

Location	Comp	Att	Comp%	Int (Int %)
Short Left	10826	15945	67.9%	263 (01.6)
Short Middle	7076	10291	68.8%	249 (02.4)
Short Right	11899	17743	67.1%	289 (01.6)
Deep Left	1361	3699	36.8%	191 (05.1)
Deep Middle	1152	2380	48.4%	196 (08.2)
Deep Right	1548	4051	38.2%	217 (05.3)

While I didn't have time, I would be interested to look into any correlation between QB ratio of passes over the middle and interception percentage on a QB by QB basis.

Ok, that's it.

* Stats are from http://www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[chris98251]

Well I think then offense went away from a selected target and spread the ball more, I also think that we opened the field up some and more passes went farther and not as much middle. Rawls going down was by far and away the biggest factor and may have had something to do with the middle clogging up more as defense cheated up also.

Play calling is also a big factor as you indicated, Lockett emerging at that time made defenses adjust once again, but deeper routes that helped all the receivers.

The numbers show we don't get the ball into the hands of the RB's enough on screens and hot routes either, I think our draft choices indicate that will change and we won't be a one trick pony in the middle routes.

 

[nanomoz]

Fantastic stuff, Loosh. Thanks. This jives with my eyeballs. Definitely more use of the miiddle in 2015.

 

[pehawk]

Thank you, great work.

 

[Cartire]

what are the dimensions of the short-mid?

 

[Laloosh]

what are the dimensions of the short-mid?

I believe PFR gets the short/deep identifier from game logs.

Think anything under 15 was considered short based on my watching all-22 and then comparing to game logs. Could be wrong but that's my recollection.

Edit: regarding mid, as is the case with game pass game logs (not sure where PFR gets their logs), they don't tend to have a flag for mid-range. Basically an over/under "x", deal.

 

[Scottemojo]

My eyeball test tells me the same thing, Seattle took advantage of the middle of the field better in 2015.

While part of that was Graham, I tended to think we were biasing initial reads toward Graham, with lots of Safety over the top and a bracket cover underneath (in the 8 to 10 yard area). That slowed down reads and exacerbated the poor line play.

I said it at the time, and I stand by it, losing Graham was good for Wilson and Bevell, because they now had no one player to get touches for. I think the passing stats bear that out. Graham is a great player, but he isn't so good that a passing offense should be shaped around him as a primary read most of the time.

As Wilson gets more control of the offense, and he will, that kind of issue will fade.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

My eyeball test tells me the same thing, Seattle took advantage of the middle of the field better in 2015.

While part of that was Graham, I tended to think we were biasing initial reads toward Graham, with lots of Safety over the top and a bracket cover underneath (in the 8 to 10 yard area). That slowed down reads and exacerbated the poor line play.

I said it at the time, and I stand by it, losing Graham was good for Wilson and Bevell, because they now had no one player to get touches for. I think the passing stats bear that out. Graham is a great player, but he isn't so good that a passing offense should be shaped around him as a primary read most of the time.

As Wilson gets more control of the offense, and he will, that kind of issue will fade.

The big change in the offensive mentality came at the bye, Scott, 1.5 games before Graham's injury, and Graham benefited as much as anyone. He had two big 3rd-and-10+ catches and the big juggling goal-line catch against the Steelers before going out.

It might be accurate to say that Pete, Bevell, and Wilson CHOSE to start spreading the ball around more, rather than Graham's injury requiring them to. But that still leaves Graham getting a lot of looks.

 

[12thman.garydrake]

My eyeball test tells me the same thing, Seattle took advantage of the middle of the field better in 2015.

While part of that was Graham, I tended to think we were biasing initial reads toward Graham, with lots of Safety over the top and a bracket cover underneath (in the 8 to 10 yard area). That slowed down reads and exacerbated the poor line play.

I said it at the time, and I stand by it, losing Graham was good for Wilson and Bevell, because they now had no one player to get touches for. I think the passing stats bear that out. Graham is a great player, but he isn't so good that a passing offense should be shaped around him as a primary read most of the time.

As Wilson gets more control of the offense, and he will, that kind of issue will fade.

The big change in the offensive mentality came at the bye, Scott, 1.5 games before Graham's injury, and Graham benefited as much as anyone. He had two big 3rd-and-10+ catches and the big juggling goal-line catch against the Steelers before going out.

It might be accurate to say that Pete, Bevell, and Wilson CHOSE to start spreading the ball around more, rather than Graham's injury requiring them to. But that still leaves Graham getting a lot of looks.

Exactly. As soon as they went with quick read and spreading the ball around is when we really started clicking. Then Jimmy went down and so on. They don't need to force Jimmy the ball like at first last year and like Harvin. We need to make are reads and Jimmy will still get his if its there. Keep doing what was working last year and get are rush game back on point.

 

[theincrediblesok]

I remember this conversation and my stance had always been that Pete does not like turnovers. It's always been about protecting the ball. What is the difference between running the ball or passing in the short middle, it comes down to risk. Since Pete is all about protecting the ball and running the ball, why not do that instead of taking the risk of an INT. Each year Wilson was limited into what the coaches wants him to do and can't do, but as each year pass he's been given more responsibilities and more opportunities.

Link below is something I've posted before. Stats are the 2013 season. Wilson was by far one of the best at beating the Blitz, but in 2014 he was the #3 most blitz QB and didn't fair too well, guess who we lost in that season.....Zach Miller. If we can get that sort of player again, hopefully Vannett, and if Jimmy is ready to play I think we will see Wilson getting back on top of that chart again.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... the-blitz/

Below is chart for 2013 so you can see the difference

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... the-blitz/

Wish I could find one for 2012 but I was not able to locate it besides just the pressure parts with no mention of TDs to INT ratios.

It's also worth mentioning that Wilson has been top 5 most blitz QB/Pressured every year it seems.

 

[DavidSeven]

We did utilize the short middle better in the latter half of 2015; however, I do wonder how much of that was scheming and coaching. Was there a concerted effort to open passing lanes for Wilson and was their a coaching emphasis on getting him to throw, and not just look, through those lanes? My 'intuition' wants to say yes. That's the feeling I was getting.

Michael Robinson said on one of his podcasts that Russell Wilson would never be a great redzone quarterback and that the coaching staff was fully aware of his limitations in that area. It was a pointed comment about his height and his inability to see in truncated areas. Maybe the numbers do or don't back that up, but his teammates, coaches, and people who watch Wilson closely (Millen, Warren Moon, etc.) all seem to think it's something.

Nevertheless, they seem to be working around it and finally found a way to make him dynamic in the redzone. Credit to Wilson, the OC, and even the OL, I think.

 

[Laloosh]

We did utilize the short middle better in the latter half of 2015; however, I do wonder how much of that was scheming and coaching. Was there a concerted effort to open passing lanes for Wilson and was their a coaching emphasis on getting him to throw to his initial read? My 'intuition' wants to say yes. That's the feeling I was getting.

Michael Robinson said on one of his podcasts that Russell Wilson would never be a great redzone quarterback and that the coaching staff was fully aware of his limitations in that area. It was a pointed comment about his height and his inability to see in truncated areas. Maybe the numbers do or don't back that up, but his teammates, coaches, and people who watch Wilson closely (Millen, Warren Moon, etc.) all seem to think it's something.

Nevertheless, they seem to be working around it and finally found a way to make him dynamic in the redzone. Credit to Wilson, the OC, and even the OL, I think.

That Mike Rob comment from his podcast on nfl network? If so, I'll look for it. Hadn't heard that from him.

 

[DavidSeven]

We did utilize the short middle better in the latter half of 2015; however, I do wonder how much of that was scheming and coaching. Was there a concerted effort to open passing lanes for Wilson and was their a coaching emphasis on getting him to throw to his initial read? My 'intuition' wants to say yes. That's the feeling I was getting.

Michael Robinson said on one of his podcasts that Russell Wilson would never be a great redzone quarterback and that the coaching staff was fully aware of his limitations in that area. It was a pointed comment about his height and his inability to see in truncated areas. Maybe the numbers do or don't back that up, but his teammates, coaches, and people who watch Wilson closely (Millen, Warren Moon, etc.) all seem to think it's something.

Nevertheless, they seem to be working around it and finally found a way to make him dynamic in the redzone. Credit to Wilson, the OC, and even the OL, I think.

That Mike Rob comment from his podcast on nfl network? If so, I'll look for it. Hadn't heard that from him.

Listen to the 1/12 R&B podcast. Luckily, it's still saved on my phone, and I'm a nice guy.

(At 10:20, Mike talking about Cam's height advantage in the redzone.)

Mike: "You heard me say it before -- in the redzone, [Cam] can make the throws. In the redzone, the windows get tighter, so the windows get taller. So, he can make the high throws in the tight windows in the redzone."

(At 14:20, starts talking about Russ's issues in the redzone.)

Mike: "I take a little bit away from Russell just because, and this is never going to change -- I know my Seahawks fans are going to get mad at me, Russell might even be upset with me right -- but his redzone issues will continue to happen (pause) unless they start feeding the ball to a guy like Jimmy Graham on the outside. Why? 'Cuz he's short. And he will never be able to get over that ... IN THE REDZONE (Mike's emphasis)."

(Nate starts saying Seattle's coaches could help him by letting him off the leash.)

Mike (interrupts): "I got to call you on that one just because -- and I gotta say this without messing up my relationships and putting information out there -- that's how it is. And I know this for a fact -- you know what I'm saying? -- I know for a fact that the thought has changed in Seattle from everything going through Beastmode to now "#3, that's your show."

Nate: "I feel he just need to run the ball."

Mike: "THAT MAY BE ON HIM (Russell). THAT MAY BE ON HIM. ... As far as "opening the offense up" -- I do know this for a fact -- he has all the tools at his disposal."

EDIT: Said it was 1/19 earlier, it's actually the 1/12/16 podcast.

 

[pehawk]

Part of the surge in short-middle and overall throwing in 2015 was due to attrition. The offense had simply lost too much to injury. No Lynch, Rawls, PRich, Graham forced Pete and Bevell away from their preferred offense. Until/unless those types of injuries occur again that 2015 offense will sit in storage (next to the bandit defense and Zorn porn)

Hat tip to the fella who brought up Zach Miller. But, aside from blitz pickup, Miller also allowed the Seahawks to run outside close to 70% of the time. Once Zach left that number decreased to 30% of the time. Varnett’s selection is about running the ball more than anything else, IMO, which supports my first paragraph.

Anyway, love the show...long time listener.

 

[Laloosh]

Part of the surge in short-middle and overall throwing in 2015 was due to attrition. The offense had simply lost too much to injury. No Lynch, Rawls, PRich, Graham forced Pete and Bevell away from their preferred offense. Until/unless those types of injuries occur again that 2015 offense will sit in storage (next to the bandit defense and Zorn porn)

Hat tip to the fella who brought up Zach Miller. But, aside from blitz pickup, Miller also allowed the Seahawks to run outside close to 70% of the time. Once Zach left that number decreased to 30% of the time. Varnett’s selection is about running the ball more than anything else, IMO, which supports my first paragraph.

Anyway, love the show...long time listener.

I'm not sure that I entirely agree with Lynch, Rawls, PRich or Graham's absence forcing their hand. To me it felt a lot more like a coaching staff that didn't have a plan "B" when the offensive line and the quarterback couldn't handle athletic defensive fronts.

Lynch's stuff percentage was one of the worst last season. Rawls was much more suited to run behind that line in my opinion but teams didn't have to respect the run or the play action because even mediocre defensive lines were living in our backfield. PRich hasn't been available so while I love the talent that he can bring, he hasn't done anything for us to miss.

As for Graham, we were all complaining because they weren't even trying to get the ball to him early in the season (at times). Then it was too much. I think the lack of a blocking TE hurt us a lot more than anybody trying to force balls to Graham did. As soon as they started getting him matched up on the outside 1:1, we started seeing those easy 8-12 yard pickups.

I think they just got too cute with the offensive line and underestimated the impact of losing Unger and Miller.

Just my opinion. I'm not a "football guy" but last year didn't feel like we were forcing it to a player as much as it felt like we were forcing a style of play that we didn't have the offensive line to pull off.

I'll take your comments off the air.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

Im just glad we are actually talking football. Again. Is all.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Part of the surge in short-middle and overall throwing in 2015 was due to attrition. The offense had simply lost too much to injury. No Lynch, Rawls, PRich, Graham forced Pete and Bevell away from their preferred offense. Until/unless those types of injuries occur again that 2015 offense will sit in storage (next to the bandit defense and Zorn porn)

Hat tip to the fella who brought up Zach Miller. But, aside from blitz pickup, Miller also allowed the Seahawks to run outside close to 70% of the time. Once Zach left that number decreased to 30% of the time. Varnett’s selection is about running the ball more than anything else, IMO, which supports my first paragraph.

Anyway, love the show...long time listener.

I'm not sure that I entirely agree with Lynch, Rawls, PRich or Graham's absence forcing their hand. To me it felt a lot more like a coaching staff that didn't have a plan "B" when the offensive line and the quarterback couldn't handle athletic defensive fronts.

Lynch's stuff percentage was one of the worst last season. Rawls was much more suited to run behind that line in my opinion but teams didn't have to respect the run or the play action because even mediocre defensive lines were living in our backfield. PRich hasn't been available so while I love the talent that he can bring, he hasn't done anything for us to miss.

As for Graham, we were all complaining because they weren't even trying to get the ball to him early in the season (at times). Then it was too much. I think the lack of a blocking TE hurt us a lot more than anybody trying to force balls to Graham did. As soon as they started getting him matched up on the outside 1:1, we started seeing those easy 8-12 yard pickups.

I think they just got too cute with the offensive line and underestimated the impact of losing Unger and Miller.

Just my opinion. I'm not a "football guy" but last year didn't feel like we were forcing it to a player as much as it felt like we were forcing a style of play that we didn't have the offensive line to pull off.

I'll take your comments off the air.

Interestingly I said about the same exact thing concerning your conclusion in another thread today, without ever seeing this thread....hmm.

 

[pehawk]

Part of the surge in short-middle and overall throwing in 2015 was due to attrition. The offense had simply lost too much to injury. No Lynch, Rawls, PRich, Graham forced Pete and Bevell away from their preferred offense. Until/unless those types of injuries occur again that 2015 offense will sit in storage (next to the bandit defense and Zorn porn)

Hat tip to the fella who brought up Zach Miller. But, aside from blitz pickup, Miller also allowed the Seahawks to run outside close to 70% of the time. Once Zach left that number decreased to 30% of the time. Varnett’s selection is about running the ball more than anything else, IMO, which supports my first paragraph.

Anyway, love the show...long time listener.

I'm not sure that I entirely agree with Lynch, Rawls, PRich or Graham's absence forcing their hand. To me it felt a lot more like a coaching staff that didn't have a plan "B" when the offensive line and the quarterback couldn't handle athletic defensive fronts.

Lynch's stuff percentage was one of the worst last season. Rawls was much more suited to run behind that line in my opinion but teams didn't have to respect the run or the play action because even mediocre defensive lines were living in our backfield. PRich hasn't been available so while I love the talent that he can bring, he hasn't done anything for us to miss.

As for Graham, we were all complaining because they weren't even trying to get the ball to him early in the season (at times). Then it was too much. I think the lack of a blocking TE hurt us a lot more than anybody trying to force balls to Graham did. As soon as they started getting him matched up on the outside 1:1, we started seeing those easy 8-12 yard pickups.

I think they just got too cute with the offensive line and underestimated the impact of losing Unger and Miller.

Just my opinion. I'm not a "football guy" but last year didn't feel like we were forcing it to a player as much as it felt like we were forcing a style of play that we didn't have the offensive line to pull off.

I'll take your comments off the air.

You are a football guy, and a great one. Your posts are always prudent, thoughtful, thought provoking and informative. I love and appreciate them. Truthfully.

As far as our varied opinion, I think we'll find out soon. I think the oline and all the injuries removed their ability to be the "run, run, run, go deep" offense they'd prefer.

 

[Laloosh]

We did utilize the short middle better in the latter half of 2015; however, I do wonder how much of that was scheming and coaching. Was there a concerted effort to open passing lanes for Wilson and was their a coaching emphasis on getting him to throw to his initial read? My 'intuition' wants to say yes. That's the feeling I was getting.

Michael Robinson said on one of his podcasts that Russell Wilson would never be a great redzone quarterback and that the coaching staff was fully aware of his limitations in that area. It was a pointed comment about his height and his inability to see in truncated areas. Maybe the numbers do or don't back that up, but his teammates, coaches, and people who watch Wilson closely (Millen, Warren Moon, etc.) all seem to think it's something.

Nevertheless, they seem to be working around it and finally found a way to make him dynamic in the redzone. Credit to Wilson, the OC, and even the OL, I think.

That Mike Rob comment from his podcast on nfl network? If so, I'll look for it. Hadn't heard that from him.

Listen to the 1/12 R&B podcast. Luckily, it's still saved on my phone, and I'm a nice guy.

(At 10:20, Mike talking about Cam's height advantage in the redzone.)

Mike: "You heard me say it before -- in the redzone, [Cam] can make the throws. In the redzone, the windows get tighter, so the windows get taller. So, he can make the high throws in the tight windows in the redzone."

(At 14:20, starts talking about Russ's issues in the redzone.)

Mike: "I take a little bit away from Russell just because, and this is never going to change -- I know my Seahawks fans are going to get mad at me, Russell might even be upset with me right -- but his redzone issues will continue to happen (pause) unless they start feeding the ball to a guy like Jimmy Graham on the outside. Why? 'Cuz he's short. And he will never be able to get over that ... IN THE REDZONE (Mike's emphasis)."

(Nate starts saying Seattle's coaches could help him by letting him off the leash.)

Mike (interrupts): "I got to call you on that one just because -- and I gotta say this without messing up my relationships and putting information out there -- that's how it is. And I know this for a fact -- you know what I'm saying? -- I know for a fact that the thought has changed in Seattle from everything going through Beastmode to now "#3, that's your show."

Nate: "I feel he just need to run the ball."

Mike: "THAT MAY BE ON HIM (Russell). THAT MAY BE ON HIM. ... As far as "opening the offense up" -- I do know this for a fact -- he has all the tools at his disposal."

EDIT: Said it was 1/19 earlier, it's actually the 1/12/16 podcast.

Was the 1/19 podcast. Thanks again.