Will the Hawks let Geno walk after this season?

[Spin Doctor]

I don't see anyone paying Geno $45M/yr, us included.

Would you as a GM give a guy with one good season top dollar after seeing what happened to Denver? Unless Russ turns it around in a big way, you gotta think he was a system QB because Geno is excelling in the exact same system after a decade of not-much. The only way I see Geno getting a big offer from another team is if that team hires Waldron as HC (which I also don't see happening...yet).

The problem is that system that we're using is fielded by approximately 1/3rd of the NFL teams.... It's one of the most common offenses in the NFL right now. So, if he is a "system QB" there are other teams he could slot into fairly easily. It's not like we're doing anything groundbreaking here. We're just running the McVay/Shanny style of WCO offense.

Ya'll are really underestimating how much he's going to get paid. He's going to get A LOT of money. We're going to be in for a rude awakening when it is time to resign him. He's going to likely be making Prescott money. I don't know how you can sit here and say otherwise if he continues playing at this level.

He's in the running for MVP right now, let that sink in for a minute. There is no way and hell that we get out of here for less than 40 million. The franchise tag itself starts at 43ish million this season. The best we can likely do is getting him on a heavy incentive based deal -- the number itself is likely going to be above 40 million if he hits incentives.

We've seen one hit wonders paid big before, this isn't anything new. Every team is scrambling for a QB if they don't have one. To think Geno Smith won't be a hot commodity is a bit myopic. It's wishful thinking at best.

 

[bmorepunk]

Matt Ryan signed with the Colts on a two year deal at around 20M a year, and Wentz signed a three year deal at around the same price, 20M per year.

Matt Ryan earned a quarter billion dollars before he signed with the Colts. Carson Wentz earned a $100 million before he signed with his current team.

Geno Smith has earned $14 million, total. Michael Dickson has earned over $12.5 million.

If Geno Smith keeps playing like this he's not going to take a steep discount "for a chance at a championship" unless he's the biggest madlad you've ever seen. If he plays lights out for the rest of the season dude is most likely going to make Ryan and Wentz look dirt cheap.

 

[scutterhawk]

I don't see anyone paying Geno $45M/yr, us included.

Would you as a GM give a guy with one good season top dollar after seeing what happened to Denver? Unless Russ turns it around in a big way, you gotta think he was a system QB because Geno is excelling in the exact same system after a decade of not-much. The only way I see Geno getting a big offer from another team is if that team hires Waldron as HC (which I also don't see happening...yet).

Sorry dude, but Geno is NOT playing ANYTHING resembling Russ-ball in the least.
Geno IS playing TOP FIVE'ish and I'm betting that he will continue to stymie Defenses.
People expecting that he will hit a wall and that his play will start declining I BELIEVE are still hanging onto the notion that he's already reached his peak in play, and I doubt like hell that he has.
All ya gotta do is measure his growth since THIS season began, to how he & his teammates have started putting plays together right now...Everything is coming together like 'gangbusters'.
The Seahawks would be stupid to lowball him & let him test the market.
The man has already been disrespected by the whole damned League... he's worked his ass off to PROVE them all wrong, PAY THE MAN.

 

[Own The West]

Sorry dude, but Geno is NOT playing ANYTHING resembling Russ-ball in the least.
Geno IS playing TOP FIVE'ish and I'm betting that he will continue to stymie Defenses.
People expecting that he will hit a wall and that his play will start declining I BELIEVE are still hanging onto the notion that he's already reached his peak in play, and I doubt like hell that he has.
All ya gotta do is measure his growth since THIS season began, to how he & his teammates have started putting plays together right now...Everything is coming together like 'gangbusters'.
The Seahawks would be stupid to lowball him & let him test the market.
The man has already been disrespected by the whole damned League... he's worked his ass off to PROVE them all wrong, PAY THE MAN.

Geno is distributing the ball well right now, but he's more Alex Smith than Tom Brady. He's putting up good stats by making a ton of completions underneath, but things get shaky when he's asked to push the ball down the field. Also, he's hit a lot of DBs in the hands this season and we've gotten lucky. For example, that pick six off the flare to the RB last week isn't the first time a defender has got their hands on that pass this season.

 

[CouchLogic]

Geno is distributing the ball well right now, but he's more Alex Smith than Tom Brady. He's putting up good stats by making a ton of completions underneath, but things get shaky when he's asked to push the ball down the field. Also, he's hit a lot of DBs in the hands this season and we've gotten lucky. For example, that pick six off the flare to the RB last week isn't the first time a defender has got their hands on that pass this season.

No one in the NFL has more perfect throws than Geno this year. He's been dropping monster dimes like he invented the long bomb.

 

[keasley45]

The other thing to consider here is that there are some pretty massive extensions upcoming as well. Tua is going to get paid. Hurts is going to get paid. Lamar is going to reset the market. All three will eclipse Murray's deal and with Lamar, by a wide margin.

In that climate, not only does the elite money change, but so does everyone else's.

What's that they say about a rising tide and ships?

40 to 45 mil a year for a bona-fide starter / leader in several statistical categories , and player soliciting MVP consideration, even over his first year, will look like a yawn by 2024.

 

[Lagartixa]

I get the logic, but no way he signs for that. Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan - recently cut Matt Ryan. Make more than that.

I have a nitpick here. Matt Ryan was not cut. He was benched. He's still on the Colts' roster.

 

[keasley45]

I have a nitpick here. Matt Ryan was not cut. He was benched. He's still on the Colts' roster.

Absolutley true.

 

[Lagartixa]

If he does sign with another team in the offseason, then the Seahawks will receive a very nice comp pick. Comp picks are based on contract $ signed vs contract $ lost. If he signs a huge mega deal elsewhere, it would most likely be one of the richest deals in the offseason based on the market value for QBs. I'm just guessing here but probably a 3rd round compensatory pick.

With all that said, I believe he signs with Seattle. He has had a front row seat showing that the grass isn't always greener on the other side. I think he will get a fair market value contract somewhere, but most likely Seattle. If the coaching staff believes in Drew Lock, then enjoy this season of Geno for whatever it brings.

The Seahawks could instead keep Smith with the non-exclusive franchise tag. Then he would cost about $31M-$34M for 2023, unless some other team wanted to offer him more, and if that were to happen, the Seahawks would get two first-round picks rather than (at most) a "three-and-a-half-th" round pick (the highest comp picks come after the 32 regular picks of the third round).
The exclusive franchise tag would get the Seahawks and Smith right to the numbers @keasley45 is mentioning - a little above $45M - unless a new monster contract changes the average of the top five.