Wild Card Chances......

[Sox-n-Hawks]

I was playing with the playoff machine...As long as we win one game out of either Panthers, Vikings, or Chiefs we can still win tiebreakers 9-7 against all teams except for Redskins & Bears. Bears will probably win their division so no need to worry about them. Redskins are not looking too good at the moment either.

So we either root for the Packers or Vikings not to make the playoffs and we are in.

Packers magic # 2 losses (Vikings, Falcons, & Bears)
Vikings magic # 3 losses (Packers, Patriots, Bears, Packers
Panthers magic # 3 losses (Seahawks, Falcons, Saints, Saints)

If we handle our business & win all our games & go 11-5, mathematically we get in no matter what.

Is there a "prayer" that we get a Home game?

Only if we’re a #5 seed and play the #6 seed at some point.


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[Mad Dog]

Wow, next to Dallas, there's no team for whom this next game is more important to playoff hopes.

But on what, I wonder, is this % rating based?

The percentage is the difference between our playoff chances if we win and the difference between our playoff chances if we lose. Essentially a 45% swing.

At 5-6 we have only a 20-something percent chance of playoffs and at 6-5 a 60-something percentage.

Hopefully we pull out one of those awful to watch 16-10 victories and move on.

 

[Ad Hawk]

Wow, next to Dallas, there's no team for whom this next game is more important to playoff hopes.

But on what, I wonder, is this % rating based?

The percentage is the difference between our playoff chances if we win and the difference between our playoff chances if we lose. Essentially a 45% swing.

At 5-6 we have only a 20-something percent chance of playoffs and at 6-5 a 60-something percentage.

Hopefully we pull out one of those awful to watch 16-10 victories and move on.

Ok, that's somewhat helpful; but who decides the 20-something or 60-something percent chance? I cannot see these being raw statistics, but only a guess based on team records or something. Is it based on Vegas' (educated) guessing and lines?

 

[hawknation2018]

Wow, next to Dallas, there's no team for whom this next game is more important to playoff hopes.

But on what, I wonder, is this % rating based?

The percentage is the difference between our playoff chances if we win and the difference between our playoff chances if we lose. Essentially a 45% swing.

At 5-6 we have only a 20-something percent chance of playoffs and at 6-5 a 60-something percentage.

Hopefully we pull out one of those awful to watch 16-10 victories and move on.

Ok, that's somewhat helpful; but who decides the 20-something or 60-something percent chance? I cannot see these being raw statistics, but only a guess based on team records or something. Is it based on Vegas' (educated) guessing and lines?

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/seahawksmig.html

Per the FootballStatus.com model, the Seahawks current probability to make the playoffs is 49% (a virtual coin flip, which is in line with most of the other computer models).

If the Seahawks lose to Carolina, their probability of making the playoffs drops to 34% (a little better than 1/3 chance).

If the Seahawks beat Carolina, their probability improves to 73% in this algorithm.

This tells us that the Seahawks have quite a bit more to gain from a victory than they have to lose in defeat. This is the only really challenging road game remaining on the schedule. It’s the game they are most likely to lose of their remaining six.

A loss would not be season ending, as their probability would rise again if they manage to beat the Vikings and 49ers (twice) in their next three games. An upset win would catapult them to the top of the Wild Card competition.

 

[Polaris]

Wow, next to Dallas, there's no team for whom this next game is more important to playoff hopes.

But on what, I wonder, is this % rating based?

The percentage is the difference between our playoff chances if we win and the difference between our playoff chances if we lose. Essentially a 45% swing.

At 5-6 we have only a 20-something percent chance of playoffs and at 6-5 a 60-something percentage.

Hopefully we pull out one of those awful to watch 16-10 victories and move on.

Ok, that's somewhat helpful; but who decides the 20-something or 60-something percent chance? I cannot see these being raw statistics, but only a guess based on team records or something. Is it based on Vegas' (educated) guessing and lines?

You aren't going to see a playoff chance based on 'raw statistics' because frankly such a metric doesn't exist. The best you can do is take the raw data and then project based on interpretation (and some assumptions) how likely each team is going to do against each others. I am personally fond of how football outsiders does it based on DVOA, but 538 (Nate Silver) has his own system as well.

 

[Ad Hawk]

Thanks for the confirmation, mates. That's what I suspected; the win % is someone's guess based on their algorithms and personal weighting.

I'm with you, Polaris, in appreciating the work that FO does with their DVOA. But again, it weighs or values only some of the data; football is far too complex to weigh everything that influences wins/losses. If it could be measured, we wouldn't have the saying "any given Sunday" much longer.

 

[jammerhawk]

While the others here have accurately stated the mathematical prospects for snagging a playoff spot I still think the team will be better off winning the Sunday’s game. It would be self affirming of the team’s mindset and immediately places the team in serious contention for the season. Another W against the Vikes and Ws in the final 3 divisional games and the divisional record is 4 of 6 and the 5th seed is secured. Beating the Chiefs on the 2nd to last game would elevate the team into the national conversation, all when the national media predicted an ugly 4-12 year.

For the team I believe this is a ‘must win’ game this Sunday. Pete will have the boys ready.

 

[jammerhawk]

The above post stated the team is facing a ‘ must win’ game. However, in reality the team could lose and then win all but the KC game and still grab the 5 seed at 9-7 if their rivals the Vikings, Panthers, Packers, and Redskins have a few key conference losses. The margin for error gets slimmer if they lose on Sunday, just when the chances were getting bigger..

I have faith!

 

[hawknation2018]

The New York Times has a cool NFL playoff simulator, which includes probabilities.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... cture.html

Right now, they give the Seahawks a 42% chance to make the playoffs, which is somewhat more bearish than the other computer projections. (This is strange: on the standings page it says 42% but on the Seahawks page this base probability fluctuates between 40-48%.)

If the Seahawks win their remaining six games, they make the playoffs no matter what (which we already knew).

If the Seahawks lose to the Panthers and then win their final five games, their playoff probability is ~97%.

If the Seahawks lose to the Panthers and Chiefs (their two toughest remaining games) but go 4-2 with wins over the VIkings, 49ers (twice), and Cardinals, then they make the playoffs in ~60% of scenarios.

If they go 4-2 by beating the Panthers but losing to the Vikings and Chiefs, their playoff probability is ~80%.

If they go 4-2 by beating the Chiefs but losing to the Panthers and Vikings, their playoff probability is ~40%.

 

[jammerhawk]

Thanks for those numbers it’s nice to know cold real facts. Still want the W on Sunday b/c it speeds up the conversation.

 

[Palmegranite]

The New York Times has a cool NFL playoff simulator, which includes probabilities.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... cture.html



If the Seahawks win their remaining six games, they make the playoffs no matter what (which we already knew).
.

This is my favourite result from the NY Times simulator, where Seahawks win out(or tie one game) and the Rams go on a 5 game losing streak:

The Seahawks win the division in 100 percent* of scenarios.
* Based on 33,212 simulations.
STAGE N.F.C. SEED CHANCE
DIVISION CHAMPION #1, bye, home field advantage
3%

 

[SeaChat]

The Seahawks are a much improved team at present, in all aspects of their game, Pete Carroll is the Play Off Run Master and has been for years. We are going to make it to, and find our way through, the play off's this season "I do believe".

If we hand the Panthers a loss tomorrow, we bump them off and take over the Wild Card spot at least for the moment. Maybe I'm naive or am missing something here but, I don't see the cause for panic just yet, regarding our play off hopes. There are 5 more games ahead of us after tomorrows game with Carolina, and all but one of them are at home.

We could even orchestrate a play off bid at home, if things magically tumbled our way, with some of our opponents experiencing a few losses, and the whole picture could change. As out there as it might sound, if the Ram's were to loose a few of their remaining games, and the Seahawks get on a run, we could quickly be 11 and 5 and the Ram's could drop to 10 and 6. Far fetched and wishful thinking as that notion might be, it's happened before and will again.

The Rams are the only team I feel like we really need to concern ourselves with. I said it earlier in another post, that I believe that there will be a 3rd showdown with the Rams in route to a Super Bowl Bid this year and that we are the team that can hand them a sound defeat if we stay focused and don't give the officials anything to destroy our chances. We have the Ram's number and the right formula to beat them. I'm hoping that their upcoming opponents have studied our game film with them and take advantage of it. It was clear that the Saints did.

Speaking of Magical, I can't close this post without mentioning the crazy infectious "No Doubt", "I Believe" mantra that Russell Wilson brings to the field every time we play. I'm not Religious, not by a long shot, but I've witnessed to many times now, where we are behind in a game, and Russell is running up and down the sidelines, encouraging his teammates to not stop believing in him or themselves, I have also stood in the stands at the Clink, and witnessed a single twelve stand up and shout out at the top of their lungs, "We Believe Russell", "No Doubt", and then be followed by thousands of twelves joining together in that moment and that message.

The real miracle here is that in many, in fact most of those games, Russell and his merry band of NFL misfits, have managed to rise up and overcome, earning themselves another victory, where it appeared that none was possible. As stressful as it has been to be a Seahawk fan during the Pete Carroll era, I can't think of any other chapter in Seahawk history, where I've experienced more exhilaration, excitement and pure happiness, than I have being a part of the Seahawk 12, and being a witness to what is clearly the Magical Spirit of the Twelfth Man, and Russell's No Doubt, Never Give Up, Keep Believing That All Things Are Possible mantra unfold and overcome. All things are possible, when the Seahawks come to town.


Go Seahawks!
2019 Super Bowl LIII Champions!

 

[toffee]

I am callin' the quest for super bowl: "for Paul". Mr. Allen was universally loved by the 12s, ain't nothin' better to land the big one for our late owner. The road will be tough, having to make it into the playoff, which ain't easy. Then probably have to play in LA Coliseum and New Orleans, both are very very hard. Ideally, we will face the Chargers after that.

Think about it, we are a team that was judged by her former stars as "lost their ways"; A coach that had lost his locker room; 4 wins predicted by experts; mid way though the season, lost her beloved owner ... just to have the owner's sister put her on the market within weeks.

What could be better than winning the big one?

Hollywood script much?

 

[DomeHawk]

I am callin' the quest for super bowl: "for Paul". Mr. Allen was universally loved by the 12s, ain't nothin' better to land the big one for our late owner. The road will be tough, having to make it into the playoff, which ain't easy. Then probably have to play in LA Coliseum and New Orleans, both are very very hard. Ideally, we will face the Chargers after that.

Think about it, we are a team that was judged by her former stars as "lost their ways"; A coach that had lost his locker room; 4 wins predicted by experts; mid way though the season, lost her beloved owner ... just to have the owner's sister put her on the market within weeks.

What could be better than winning the big one?

Hollywood script much?

^^^^Funny. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[AgentDib]

Friendly reminder here that all of the playoff simulators mentioned treat the games as independent events for simplicity when in actuality they are highly dependent. See Alex Smith's injury for an example of how one single event can suddenly lower the future probabilities for all remaining games in a season. This error is not a problem when we are down to the last game of the season but compounds with each remaining game to be played, so projections with 6 games left should be taken with a major grain of salt (and a huge +/- uncertainty bound).

 

[Zeearend]

Is there a "prayer" that we get a Home game?

Only if we’re a #5 seed and play the #6 seed at some point.

Well I am hoping that we play the Rams again (and beat them). That could be sort of a home game away from home.

 

[Sox-n-Hawks]

Is there a "prayer" that we get a Home game?

Only if we’re a #5 seed and play the #6 seed at some point.

Well I am hoping that we play the Rams again (and beat them). That could be sort of a home game away from home.

Blanking them in the playoffs would be sweet revenge.

 

[hawknation2018]

75% chance the Seahawks make the playoffs.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... redictions

 

[Jerhawk]

After today's game, it's looking good!

4 of the next 5 at home. Only road game is in Santa Clara, which will basically be another Seahawks home game.

I'm confident now!

 

[sutz]

Looking better and better.

:irishdrinkers: