Why the Eagles win the East

[pehawk]

First, let me give a shout out to Montana to opening my mind to this thought process. His 10,000 post is what makes this place great and cements Montana as a GREAT football thinker (when his curmudgeon is pushed aside). I mean all of that, that post is a real life reminder of why this place is greater than a bucket of dead kittens.

Aight, we get it, you want to smell Montana's privates

Over the past decade or so, the passing game has advanced so far QB's coming out of college are already versed well in pro style strategies. The usual 2-4 year window it takes QB's to become pro, is now moot. High School's are installing pro style passing attacks at this point. Everyone can pass....and pass well now. To counter this trend, NFL defensive minds have rightfully placed a priority on rushing the passer. Front office's and coaching focuses almost exclusively on getting to the quarterback.

Well, guess what? Against Chip Kelly’s spread game based in speed and misdirection, pass rushing superiority actually works against you. ESPECIALLY when it’s a defensive end. And, what has the NFC East been known for the past decade or so? The Giants NASCAR package, Orakpo and Kerrigan, Demarcus Ware, etc, etc.

Those teams have all placed a priority on rushing the passer…and now they’re going to pay for that emphasis. And, it’ll take a good 2-3 years for them to adjust to Chip’s offense, and by that time, Chip may roll with Barkley and do what he does well, play-action.

Do I think Chip’s the equivalent of Bill Walsh, innovation wise? No. Would Chip have as much success in the NFC West? Nope, physical play along your interior line and press/jam corners can slow it down. But, in the NFC East? It’s like taking candy from a baby, really.

Fart....

 

[HawksFTW]

The division is ripe for the picking, I don't see any body that particularly stands out on either side of the ball. The one thing that remains to be seen, is how much the players can take. The offense is dependent on running a bunch of plays in quick succession with varying yet similar concepts, in order to minimize the amount of downtime. There was a marked difference in terms of predictability, and production, when the Eagles attempted to slow the game down in the second half. The NFL is a war of attrition, yes? If so, the Eagles are already losing that battle, and all the teams that are running 50% more plays than the rest of the NFL will be at a disadvantage late into the season. It works in college because of sheer numbers. They don't have that luxury in the NFL.

That is the only knock I can see on Chip Kelly's offense. Other than that, it looked great Sunday night. It helps that McCoy and Jackson looked in great form. Vick looked good, but still takes too many hits. Throw in more snaps for him, and all but guarantees he will miss some time. Foles can handle the offense, I imagine, but not with extra threat that Vick brings. Overall, I don't disagree with your sentiment. Neither Dallas or Giants scare me, and Washington will be dealing with RG3 recovery all season I would guess. If their key components stay healthy, I can see Eagles winning 9-10 games.

 

[Sarlacc83]

The division is ripe for the picking, I don't see any body that particularly stands out on either side of the ball. The one thing that remains to be seen, is how much the players can take. The offense is dependent on running a bunch of plays in quick succession with varying yet similar concepts, in order to minimize the amount of downtime. There was a marked difference in terms of predictability, and production, when the Eagles attempted to slow the game down in the second half. The NFL is a war of attrition, yes? If so, the Eagles are already losing that battle, and all the teams that are running 50% more plays than the rest of the NFL will be at a disadvantage late into the season. It works in college because of sheer numbers. They don't have that luxury in the NFL.

That is the only knock I can see on Chip Kelly's offense. Other than that, it looked great Sunday night. It helps that McCoy and Jackson looked in great form. Vick looked good, but still takes too many hits. Throw in more snaps for him, and all but guarantees he will miss some time. Foles can handle the offense, I imagine, but not with extra threat that Vick brings. Overall, I don't disagree with your sentiment. Neither Dallas or Giants scare me, and Washington will be dealing with RG3 recovery all season I would guess. If their key components stay healthy, I can see Eagles winning 9-10 games.

The Patriots have shown you can play 90 snaps a game through an entire season, so, given NFL conditioning and the extra adrenaline from offensive output, I assume the starters can handle it. As for the defensive side of the ball, Kelly talked about snaps played versus time of possession. If your defense is running about the same number of snaps, they should also have the legs to go the distance. However, I'm already on the record as guessing the team will wear down at the end of the year after a massive first half, so...what do I know?

I also agree with you that Vick is likely to go down. Non-healthy players have already worn down/been injured from the extra stress of practices.

 

[pehawk]

For whatever concerns we have about this offense sustaining pace and health over a NFL season, think about this; Kelly's NEVER had a LEGIT NFL QB running his offense. He had great QB play at Oregon, but not necessarily NFL QB's, more athletes.

So, while we've all seen this offense before. We've never really seen it with a pro QB. We just haven't. We can agree to disagree on whether Vick's good or not, but, he is a NFL QB.

 

[HawksFTW]

For whatever concerns we have about this offense sustaining pace and health over a NFL season, think about this; Kelly's NEVER had a LEGIT NFL QB running his offense. He had great QB play at Oregon, but not necessarily NFL QB's, more athletes.

So, while we've all seen this offense before. We've never really seen it with a pro QB. We just haven't. We can agree to disagree on whether Vick's good or not, but, he is a NFL QB.

Agreed, I actually like Vick as a player. His biggest problem is adjusting protections on the fly. Complex blitz schemes are his kryptonite, but other than that I think he is an above average QB, and a very good athlete on top of that. He isn't perfectly suited for this offense, because ideally Kelly would have a QB who had quick decision making skills and better short to intermediate accuracy, but Vick probably has the best skillset Kelly has ever worked with.

I would put money on Vick missing time though.

 

[HawksFTW]

The division is ripe for the picking, I don't see any body that particularly stands out on either side of the ball. The one thing that remains to be seen, is how much the players can take. The offense is dependent on running a bunch of plays in quick succession with varying yet similar concepts, in order to minimize the amount of downtime. There was a marked difference in terms of predictability, and production, when the Eagles attempted to slow the game down in the second half. The NFL is a war of attrition, yes? If so, the Eagles are already losing that battle, and all the teams that are running 50% more plays than the rest of the NFL will be at a disadvantage late into the season. It works in college because of sheer numbers. They don't have that luxury in the NFL.

That is the only knock I can see on Chip Kelly's offense. Other than that, it looked great Sunday night. It helps that McCoy and Jackson looked in great form. Vick looked good, but still takes too many hits. Throw in more snaps for him, and all but guarantees he will miss some time. Foles can handle the offense, I imagine, but not with extra threat that Vick brings. Overall, I don't disagree with your sentiment. Neither Dallas or Giants scare me, and Washington will be dealing with RG3 recovery all season I would guess. If their key components stay healthy, I can see Eagles winning 9-10 games.

The Patriots have shown you can play 90 snaps a game through an entire season, so, given NFL conditioning and the extra adrenaline from offensive output, I assume the starters can handle it. As for the defensive side of the ball, Kelly talked about snaps played versus time of possession. If your defense is running about the same number of snaps, they should also have the legs to go the distance. However, I'm already on the record as guessing the team will wear down at the end of the year after a massive first half, so...what do I know?

I also agree with you that Vick is likely to go down. Non-healthy players have already worn down/been injured from the extra stress of practices.

I think the Patriots actually suffered because of it, in the end. It showed up on the injury report and on the field effort by the end of the year. They blew out Houston, who was more of a finesse team, but got pushed around on both sides of the ball against Baltimore. And I guess that is my issue, Philly is not a physical team. If a good defense can hang with them through a couple series, I think you can actually beat them up pretty good, because you have so many opportunities to hit them. I think that catches up to them, not necessarily in their division, but definitely if they make it to the playoffs.

I agree with you on the defensive side of the ball, yet I think they lack overall talent and depth there. So while the defense isn't subjected to so many snaps, I am not sure the defense is a difference maker in the first place. I think the Eagles are going to have to score 30 points a game to feel comfortable, with that defense.

 

[brimsalabim]

I was just watching Jaws breakdown the Eagles "run / pass option" and I could not believe what I was seeing that Jaws wasn't discussing.
On those plays the Red skins line backers were reading the down linemen and guessing run. The Eagles were play action and passing around them. Thing is Jaws was so enamered with the formation that he failed to notice the line of scrimmage clearly marked on the tape with two to three linemen clearly past it when the ball is thrown. The backers are reading run because the eagles offensive line is down field blocking. It may only be a few yards but they have clearly crossed the LOS.

 

[AbsolutNET]

I was just watching Jaws breakdown the Eagles "run / pass option" and I could not believe what I was seeing that Jaws wasn't discussing.
On those plays the Red skins line backers were reading the down linemen and guessing run. The Eagles were play action and passing around them. Thing is Jaws was so enamered with the formation that he failed to notice the line of scrimmage clearly marked on the tape with two to three linemen clearly past it when the ball is thrown. The backers are reading run because the eagles offensive line is down field blocking. It may only be a few yards but they have clearly crossed the LOS.

They're allowed to be a few yards down field. They have to assume run and it's up to the QB to read the LB and get the ball thrown before the OL get too far down field.

 

[ClumsyLurk]

Is it like 5 yards and beyond that OL become ineligible receivers?

 

[brimsalabim]

I guess Kelly is going to push it to the limit until it gets flagged. It probably doesn't hurt that he is also pushing his tempo to the point that its all the officials can do to keep up.