Who would you draft if you had the #1 pick?

[kearly]

Lets say you are starting an NFL expansion franchise and you had the #1 pick this year. Who would you draft and why?

My pick: CB Jalen Ramsey. He's a freak athlete who was rarely targeted in college due to his coverage skills. At a position that is known for divas and immaturity, Ramsey displays the headiness, maturity, and professionalism of an long tenured NFL all-pro in interviews. He's not quite the same as Richard Sherman or Deion Sanders, but he has has a similar aura of confidence and ultimately I think he will end up nipping at their heels.

I always cringe when people say "safest pick in the draft", but I do feel that Ramsey is exactly that. Not only because of his physical talent, high level of college play, and maturity, but also because he excelled when playing safety. So even if he bombed at corner, he could probably be salvaged at either safety spot.

A shut down corner is nearly as valuable as an ace pass rusher, and since there are no ace pass rushers this year, that makes Ramsey the draft's most valuable prospect, IMO.

Goff and Wentz are good QB prospects. They remind me of Matt Ryan and Blake Bortles respectively. The problem is, Ryan is a fringe top 10 QB. And Bortles is fringe top 15. Is a slightly above average QB good enough for the next 10-15 years? For some it is. But for me I'd rather aim for top five.

 

[Hawkscanner]

That's a very good question Kearly -- especially given this draft class. Usually, I would say QB ... IF there were a franchise one available in this draft. That is THE biggest and most important piece on your football team. The problem is I don't see a Peyton Manning (an absolute no brainer can't miss QB prospect that screams future HOF'er) in this draft class when it comes to QB's. Therefore, if I were GM, I'd have to go with BPA and go with another piece to the puzzle that is equally hard to fill -- and that is Left Tackle. Laremy Tunsil would have to be my guy if I had the #1 pick. He's not only the best LT in this class ... many consider him to be a future All-Pro and the best LT prospect to come out of the draft in years. QB, LT, and CB's are probably the 3 most important positions on the field. I can see where you're coming from with going for a shut down corner, but I've gotta go LT and Tunsil here.

 

[McGruff]

Tunsil.

 

[hawkfan68]

I'd probably look to trade down. There isn't a clear cut #1 pick; the gap between #1 choice and 15 is very minimal.

 

[cover-2]

For me it's easy....LT Laremy Tunsil. He is one of the best LT I have ever scouted. IMO he is without question the number one prospect in the draft.

But, my favorite player is OLB Myles Jack, he is the Kam Chancellor of LB's. Dude is physical and fun to watch.

 

[cheese22]

I honestly would give you a different answer every day. I'd probably bounce between Tunsil, Ramsey and even Goff some days.

This question brings up an aspect of football that is kind of ironic. If you polled all the teams, I'd bet the two positions that occupy being team captains the most are MLB and C. Yet when you talk about 'starting a franchise' or 'who's #1' type picks, those two positions have some of the least value for those picks.

Chris Collinsworth apparently wrote an article recently about how he thinks C's are undervalued. I totally agree, especially since Seattle is pretty much rebuilding their Oline and trying to mock their draft can go a couple different directions. Most people's first reaction is to pick the best LT, CB or QB available. Yet when it comes to calling assignments (aside from QB obviously) at the line, nobody is more important than the C and MLB.

Sorry, I'm not trying to hijack your thread but I kept coming back to this idea when I was trying to come up with an answer.

 

[Atradees]

I would trade that 1 overall for Thomas. An established player.....or trade to the 8 or 9 range using tunsil as bait....get two priority positions in round one. Made trade down again get a solid center, qb and ot or Dt bpa. I think using such high picks on one player is a waste for new or terrible franchise.

 

[kearly]

I'm probably biased by the fact that the remaining LT options at the first pick in the 2nd round are unusually good prospects. Most years a LT like Tunsil would be a no-brainer, but I lean a bit more towards Ramsey because I love the OL options at picks #32 and #64.

In a vacuum, a top LT vs. a top corner would be an interesting debate. The highest paid OL in the NFL is currently making $13.7m APY. There are currently five corners making more money than the highest paid OL. NFL GMs generally value corners more than they do offensive tackles, at least financially speaking. It is pretty close though, and some teams may value tackles more. (Seattle is obviously one of the teams that values corners more.)

 

[kearly]

But, my favorite player is OLB Myles Jack, he is the Kam Chancellor of LB's. Dude is physical and fun to watch.

For me he feels like a bowling ball version of Navarro Bowman. He has kind of a weird unconventional build for a LB, and takes weird routes to the runner at times, especially when navigating through traffic. He looks VERY physical though, very tough to block.

I think he'll have to start off at WLB in a 4-3 defense and slowly learn the position while they keep things as simple as possible for him. He is still raw though I guess that makes sense since he is a position convert.

To me, I think his value is around the #15 pick, but he'll probably go top 5. He's not as big a hype job as Aaron Curry and I definitely think Jack will have a (much) better career than Curry did, but their situations do mirror each other a bit.

 

[cover-2]

I honestly would give you a different answer every day. I'd probably bounce between Tunsil, Ramsey and even Goff some days.

This question brings up an aspect of football that is kind of ironic. If you polled all the teams, I'd bet the two positions that occupy being team captains the most are MLB and C. Yet when you talk about 'starting a franchise' or 'who's #1' type picks, those two positions have some of the least value for those picks.

Chris Collinsworth apparently wrote an article recently about how he thinks C's are undervalued. I totally agree, especially since Seattle is pretty much rebuilding their Oline and trying to mock their draft can go a couple different directions. Most people's first reaction is to pick the best LT, CB or QB available. Yet when it comes to calling assignments (aside from QB obviously) at the line, nobody is more important than the C and MLB.

Sorry, I'm not trying to hijack your thread but I kept coming back to this idea when I was trying to come up with an answer.

I'll make the pick for you...Notre Dame OC Nick Martin! He doesn't fit the athletic profile that the Seahawks like in their o-lineman, but he is a team leader that will make all the calls on the o-line and make others around him better. If we draft a OC, Martin is the one I want for the Seahawks. Yeah, he isn't a 1st round prospect but he is effective, a team captain and a vocal leader on the offensive line.

 

[Overseasfan]

If you have new franchise you're going to need the best QB available and that's Goff.

 

[chris98251]

This draft I trade down and trade down again and garner picks, O line and D line prospects, as we have seen if you don't have a good line you get a David Carr situation and waste your QB before he is capable of leading your team.

 

[cheese22]

I honestly would give you a different answer every day. I'd probably bounce between Tunsil, Ramsey and even Goff some days.

This question brings up an aspect of football that is kind of ironic. If you polled all the teams, I'd bet the two positions that occupy being team captains the most are MLB and C. Yet when you talk about 'starting a franchise' or 'who's #1' type picks, those two positions have some of the least value for those picks.

Chris Collinsworth apparently wrote an article recently about how he thinks C's are undervalued. I totally agree, especially since Seattle is pretty much rebuilding their Oline and trying to mock their draft can go a couple different directions. Most people's first reaction is to pick the best LT, CB or QB available. Yet when it comes to calling assignments (aside from QB obviously) at the line, nobody is more important than the C and MLB.

Sorry, I'm not trying to hijack your thread but I kept coming back to this idea when I was trying to come up with an answer.

I'll make the pick for you...Notre Dame OC Nick Martin! He doesn't fit the athletic profile that the Seahawks like in their o-lineman, but he is a team leader that will make all the calls on the o-line and make others around him better. If we draft a OC, Martin is the one I want for the Seahawks. Yeah, he isn't a 1st round prospect but he is effective, a team captain and a vocal leader on the offensive line.

I'd love to have Nick Martin be our C for the next 12 years and that means we got him in the second. So, in the first we got Ifedi or Coleman and they play LG for a year or two until they move to LT and bump Gilliam back to RT. In the third we get our massive LG in Tretola or Kirkland who get spot minutes the first year or two before taking over for Ifedi. With Glowinski at RG and Webb at RT, we are okay until the '17 or '18 season and we make a couple changes. At that point we go left to right Ifedi, Kirkland, N Martin, Glowinski and Gilliam. I would love to see Soko develop enough to contribute or start soon. The other change I'd be happy with is getting McGovern in the second to be our C. Scouts say his strength is amazing and he is impossible to move backward 1 v 1. I think Kirkland, McGovern, Glowinski and Sokoli provide the size and strength this team needs to 'be the bully again.) I look at those names on the interior of the line, then add Ifedi and Gilliam on the outside and I feel pretty damn good about the future.

 

[Tech Worlds]

If the top pick is a cb.... Then I just trade it for the future. Plain and simple.

 

[penihawk]

This draft would be the one to trade out of the top spot and get more picks if you are an expansion team. If forced to choose it would be Tunsil and the same if I'm picking for the Titans with Mariota in the fold this year.

 

[Hawkscanner]

I'd probably look to trade down. There isn't a clear cut #1 pick; the gap between #1 choice and 15 is very minimal.

If I were starting a franchise from scratch I'd be looking to trade down as well. Here's the problem (and it's been the problem for years now) -- unless you have an off the charts, blow your doors off, future HOF QB sitting there in the catbird seat at #1 no team is going to want to jump up there to the #1 pick.

Seriously, go back and look at the draft over the last several years. How many times has it actually happened?

I'll tell you -- the last time that the #1 pick was traded was 2004 (12 years ago). The Chargers traded it to the Giants for Eli Manning. The Giants traded the Chargers their #4 Pick (became Phillip Rivers) ... the #65 Pick ... their 1st Round pick in 2005 (#12 overall, which became Shawn Merriman) ... and the #144 pick in 2005.

In 2001 the Chargers traded it to the Falcons for Michael Vick. The Falcons gave up their pick at #5 ... and also traded away their #67 pick ... and their 2nd Round pick in 2002 (#48) to get him.

Now, in 1997 the Jets did successfully trade the #1 overall pick to the Rams who selected Orlando Pace. The Jets not only got the Rams pick at #6 ... they also got the #67 Pick ... the #102 Pick ... and the #207 Pick.

1995 -- the Panthers traded the #1 overall pick to the Bengals. Bengals selected Ki-Jana Carter ... the Panthers got the Bengals pick at #5 ... and also the #36 pick as well.

1991 -- the Patriots traded the #1 overall pick to the Cowboys. The Cowboys selected Russell Maryland. The Patriots got the Cowboys pick at #11 ... and also the #41 pick as well.

1990 -- the Falcons traded the #1 Overall pick to the Colts along with the #83 Pick and a conditional 1991 pick. The Colts selected Jeff George with the #1 Pick. In order to make that deal, they traded away Pro Bowl Tackle Chris Hinton, the #83 Pick, and the #121 Pick.

Those are the deals. It has happened 6 times over the course of the last 25 years. It should be noted that Jimmy Johnson's trade valuation chart didn't start to become popularized, well known, etc. until the late 1990s or so.

Now, we could look at 1997 and the Orlando Pace example and possibly argue that (in the same way) some team might look at Laremy Tunsil in the same way and be willing to jump up there to #1. BUT, as Kearly pointed out this is a great draft for Offensive Linemen. There will be great value there throughout the draft. In terms of LT's, it is entirely possible that you can find a decent starting LT clear in to the beginning stages of the 2nd Round. FWIW, both Rob Rang and Pete Prisco in their latest mocks have Jack Conklin falling to Seattle at #26. THAT would make me smile.

Anyway, the point is that unless a player is deemed as VERY special by a franchise, teams have generally been unwilling to jump up to the #1 spot because it is so darned costly to do so. And that point is painfully obvious, as it's happened only 6 times in the last 25 NFL Drafts.

I'm not saying that the Titans WON'T be successful in trading it away this year (everyone knows they desperately want to do so) -- it's just that this draft doesn't look to me like one that's set up for them to be able to do that. Therefore, I believe in the end they'll be stuck with going BPA and selecting Laremy Tunsil with the #1 Pick (which isn't a bad thing after all).

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

If I'm an expansion team?

It's QB or trade down. A team at that stage has probably close to 40 holes on the roster. I'd want picks. A lot of them. Not sure I'd even stop at one trade back.

Probably would be looking at future picks as well. I'd be figuring it's a five year process. I'd want close to 12 picks a year for the next 3 years. I'd try to collect 4-5 day 2 picks every year. Sign a bunch of UFAs to 1 year deals hoping for comp picks. Look to possibly overpay for top shelf talent on 2 year deals with a team option on year two.

At the expansion stage, round 4 guys are going to be starters for your team. I'd work the defense mercilessly. Go with vet O line guys. Basically hit every economy of talent point I could (avoid pass rushers, OT in draft unless I felt they were 'the guy'.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Jalen Ramsey, absolutely.

 

[kearly]

I'd probably look to trade down. There isn't a clear cut #1 pick; the gap between #1 choice and 15 is very minimal.

If I were starting a franchise from scratch I'd be looking to trade down as well. Here's the problem (and it's been the problem for years now) -- unless you have an off the charts, blow your doors off, future HOF QB sitting there in the catbird seat at #1 no team is going to want to jump up there to the #1 pick.

Seriously, go back and look at the draft over the last several years. How many times has it actually happened?

I'll tell you -- the last time that the #1 pick was traded was 2004 (12 years ago). The Chargers traded it to the Giants for Eli Manning. The Giants traded the Chargers their #4 Pick (became Phillip Rivers) ... the #65 Pick ... their 1st Round pick in 2005 (#12 overall, which became Shawn Merriman) ... and the #144 pick in 2005.

In 2001 the Chargers traded it to the Falcons for Michael Vick. The Falcons gave up their pick at #5 ... and also traded away their #67 pick ... and their 2nd Round pick in 2002 (#48) to get him.

Now, in 1997 the Jets did successfully trade the #1 overall pick to the Rams who selected Orlando Pace. The Jets not only got the Rams pick at #6 ... they also got the #67 Pick ... the #102 Pick ... and the #207 Pick.

1995 -- the Panthers traded the #1 overall pick to the Bengals. Bengals selected Ki-Jana Carter ... the Panthers got the Bengals pick at #5 ... and also the #36 pick as well.

1991 -- the Patriots traded the #1 overall pick to the Cowboys. The Cowboys selected Russell Maryland. The Patriots got the Cowboys pick at #11 ... and also the #41 pick as well.

1990 -- the Falcons traded the #1 Overall pick to the Colts along with the #83 Pick and a conditional 1991 pick. The Colts selected Jeff George with the #1 Pick. In order to make that deal, they traded away Pro Bowl Tackle Chris Hinton, the #83 Pick, and the #121 Pick.

Those are the deals. It has happened 6 times over the course of the last 25 years. It should be noted that Jimmy Johnson's trade valuation chart didn't start to become popularized, well known, etc. until the late 1990s or so.

Now, we could look at 1997 and the Orlando Pace example and possibly argue that (in the same way) some team might look at Laremy Tunsil in the same way and be willing to jump up there to #1. BUT, as Kearly pointed out this is a great draft for Offensive Linemen. There will be great value there throughout the draft. In terms of LT's, it is entirely possible that you can find a decent starting LT clear in to the beginning stages of the 2nd Round. FWIW, both Rob Rang and Pete Prisco in their latest mocks have Jack Conklin falling to Seattle at #26. THAT would make me smile.

Anyway, the point is that unless a player is deemed as VERY special by a franchise, teams have generally been unwilling to jump up to the #1 spot because it is so darned costly to do so. And that point is painfully obvious, as it's happened only 6 times in the last 25 NFL Drafts.

I'm not saying that the Titans WON'T be successful in trading it away this year (everyone knows they desperately want to do so) -- it's just that this draft doesn't look to me like one that's set up for them to be able to do that. Therefore, I believe in the end they'll be stuck with going BPA and selecting Laremy Tunsil with the #1 Pick (which isn't a bad thing after all).

Fantastic post.

 

[CPHawk]

#1 this year? It would be tough, but either Ramsey, who's going to be a stud, or you take Tunsill. The main issue with Ramsey though is if he's a corner or safety. If he's the next Sherman, you can't go wrong having a lock down corner, but is a safety worth the top pick? LT is a serious hole you don't want to have in your team, so filling that is also huge.

As for Martin, you have to gamble and hope he's around at the beginning of round 2.