Trading Down and Missing Out on Pro Bowl Players

[onanygivensunday]

So I've been giving this subject some thought and came to the conclusion that I should look at the last five years of Seahawk's drafts to understand which 1st or 2nd round Pro Bowl players we may have missed out on by trading down, and calculating the likelihood of missing out on a Pro Bowl-level players compared to the number of spots we ultimately traded down to.

Thirteen spots: In 2014, we traded down twice from #32 to #45, where we drafted Paul Richardson. The downward trades gained us a 4th round pick (#108), a second 4th round pick (#111) and a 7th round pick (#227) but we also gave up a 5th round pick (#146) to make the trades. To date, there have been four Pro Bowl players selected in 2014 between #32 and #45 (Teddy Bridgewater, DeMarcus Lawrence, Joel Bitonio and Derek Carr). Generally speaking, that equates to a 31% likelihood (4/13) of missing out on a Pro Bowl level player.

In 2015, we traded away our 1st round pick (#31) to NO in the Jimmy Graham trade.

Five Spots: In 2016, we traded down from pick #26 to pick #31, where we drafted Germaine Ifedi. The trade down gained us a 3rd round pick from Denver (#94 overall). To date, there has been only one Pro Bowl player (Kenny Clark) selected in 2016 between #26 and #31. That equates to a 20% likelihood (1/5).

Nine Spots: In 2017, we traded down multiple times from pick #26 to pick #35, where we drafted Malik McDowell. The multiple trades gained us a 3rd round pick (#95) and a 7th round pick (#249), a 4th round pick (#111), and a 6th round pick (#187). To date, there have been two Pro Bowl players (Tre’Davious White and T.J. Watt) selected in 2017 between #26 and #35. That equates to a 22.2% likelihood (2/9).

Nine Spots: In 2018, we traded down nine spots again from pick #18 to pick #27, where we drafted Rashad Penny. The trade gained us a 3rd round (#76) and a 6th round (#186) pick but we also gave up a 7th round pick in the trade (#248). To date, there has been only one Pro Bowl player (Leighton Vander Esch) selected in 2018 between #18 and #27, equating to an 11% likelihood (1/9).

After looking at the players and the numbers I am of the opinion that trading down in the early rounds is well worth the draft capital gained. I'm interested in hearing your opinion.

 

[jammerhawk]

Yep in retrospect the team has missed out on a number of good players by trading down. However, were those players thought to be Pro Bowl level players when they were drafted? Not exactly, or the team wouldn't have traded back; so what you are doing is applying the retrospectoscope (the world's most accurate instrument) to an assessment of how well JS has drafted.

 

[Largent80]

It's why I started the pick 27 thread. If there EVER was a year for them to use it it's this year.

 

[onanygivensunday]

It's why I started the pick 27 thread. If there EVER was a year for them to use it it's this year.

Exactly, especially when we have two 2nds and a 3rd.

 

[BubbaGump]

I would add that just because those players were pro bowlers does not mean they would be pro bowlers with the hawks. Every situation is different. Team and player situations must be taken into effect when thinking that the Hawks have missed out on those pro bowl players.

With that said, I do feel that the Hawks have drafted or used their draft capital poorly within the first round range.

 

[JayhawkMike]

I don't think any of the picks we traded down for have been any where close to pro bowl picks either. That is the thing that worries me. It feels like whatever pick the Seahawks make at 27 - if they even pick there - will be a reach with a 2nd or 3rd round grade instead of a first round graded player that fell to them. It feels like Pete would rather find a 5th rounder that by luck makes it to being a starter than to pick a pro bowl quality player in the first round and actually get them to the pro bowl. Objectively, using unbiased draftniks, we have sucked with our first pick. Ifedi, McDowell, Penny, Collier? People will make excuses but that is a whole lot of suck.

 

[xray]

The draft isn't an exact science yet. i's like betting on a turtle race...

 

[xray]

The draft isn't an exact science yet. i's like betting on a turtle race... I wouldn't pretend to know how to draft .

 

[Appyhawk]

I'm not convinced by those denigrating the Penny pick. That guy is a stud who ran into some unfortunate injury luck. That same luck can attack ANY NFL player. Penny is a high quality player, same as Carson, who we picked in later rounds as a Carroll hunch.
But, remember where we pick Warner? And Alexander? We used to get great players with early picks. It's just that recently our early picks weren't that early, and we traded our earliest opportunities away for later round selections.
We need a solid player with our opportunities this year, and we need each of them from the highest quality talent pool possible. With 8 picks currently on our schedule (which I expect to see narrowed due to FA trades) we could afford to trade a couple to advance in the pick lineup in order to get quality in preference to quantity.

 

[seabowl]

I'm not convinced by those denigrating the Penny pick. That guy is a stud who ran into some unfortunate injury luck. That same luck can attack ANY NFL player. Penny is a high quality player, same as Carson, who we picked in later rounds as a Carroll hunch.
But, remember where we pick Warner? And Alexander? We used to get great players with early picks. It's just that recently our early picks weren't that early, and we traded our earliest opportunities away for later round selections.
We need a solid player with our opportunities this year, and we need each of them from the highest quality talent pool possible. With 8 picks currently on our schedule (which I expect to see narrowed due to FA trades) we could afford to trade a couple to advance in the pick lineup in order to get quality in preference to quantity.

Penny for the most part had been slow and takes too long to hit the hole. Was a reach them and still now IMO. IS has So Davis syndrome by being cute and overdrafting players early.

 

[KiwiHawk]

One problem is when people say "1st round pick" they basically equate all of them. However, there is a HUGE difference between picking in the top 5 or 10 and picking in the bottom 5 or 10. Just looking at the 2018 draft, out of the top 10 players, eight started both seasons, and two started one season. That's 18 out of 20 possible starts. From the bottom 10, three of the 10 players started 2 years, three started one year, and four didn't start either year. Nine out of 20 possible starts.

Because we make the playoffs every year, we consistently pick in the bottom 10.

So you can't just throw a blanket on them and say they are 1st round picks ergo they are starters. When you fall out of the top 10 the odds of picking a starter fall. This is also due to the bottom-10 teams being playoff teams instead of sucky teams who HAVE to start their new players because they have massive roster holes.

 

[scutterhawk]

I'm not convinced by those denigrating the Penny pick. That guy is a stud who ran into some unfortunate injury luck. That same luck can attack ANY NFL player. Penny is a high quality player, same as Carson, who we picked in later rounds as a Carroll hunch.
But, remember where we pick Warner? And Alexander? We used to get great players with early picks. It's just that recently our early picks weren't that early, and we traded our earliest opportunities away for later round selections.
We need a solid player with our opportunities this year, and we need each of them from the highest quality talent pool possible. With 8 picks currently on our schedule (which I expect to see narrowed due to FA trades) we could afford to trade a couple to advance in the pick lineup in order to get quality in preference to quantity.

Like the LOB....How many of them did Pete & John pick up in the 1st?.....2nd?....3rd?....4th? & 5th rounds?

 

[Bobblehead]

When we had that great draft of 2012 did we trade down?

 

[hawkfan68]

When we had that great draft of 2012 did we trade down?

They did and missed out on Fletcher Cox and ended up with Bruce Irvin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NFL_Draft

 

[Bobblehead]

When we had that great draft of 2012 did we trade down?

They did and missed out on Fletcher Cox and ended up with Bruce Irvin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NFL_Draft

Forgot we took Irvin in the 1st.. That seemed to be a loaded draft class, but still aside from just a couple of players.. the talent level after the 4th round seems to be pretty marginal. Just that the chances of finding a stud is pretty slim.

 

[sdog1981]

Trade down or trade up. Draft debates for all time.

The Redskins were drafting geniuses for trading back winning 3 SBs, until they started picking the wrong players, and have sucked ever since.

The Cowboys were geniuses for adding a bunch of picks trading them for more picks and winning 3 SBs. Then they started drafting the wrong players and have sucked ever since.

A team is only as good as the players added to the team. Everyone hindsight draft genius.

As for your 2015 draft when they gave up the 31st pick in the draft for Jimmy G? The next Pro Bowl players selected were Landon Collins safety, Benardick McKinny linebacker, Eric Kendricks linebacker. The next two Por Bowl players drafted in that draft? Frank Clark DE by the Seahawks and Tyler Lockett WR by the Seahawks.

The draft is not an exact science, as much as pre-draft hype wants you to believe otherwise.

 

[chris98251]

Trade down or trade up. Draft debates for all time.

The Redskins were drafting geniuses for trading back winning 3 SBs, until they started picking the wrong players, and have sucked ever since.

The Cowboys were geniuses for adding a bunch of picks trading them for more picks and winning 3 SBs. Then they started drafting the wrong players and have sucked ever since.

A team is only as good as the players added to the team. Everyone hindsight draft genius.

As for your 2015 draft when they gave up the 31st pick in the draft for Jimmy G? The next Pro Bowl players selected were Landon Collins safety, Benardick McKinny linebacker, Eric Kendricks linebacker. The next two Por Bowl players drafted in that draft? Frank Clark DE by the Seahawks and Tyler Lockett WR by the Seahawks.

The draft is not an exact science, as much as pre-draft hype wants you to believe otherwise.

Well you can have a great player and a dumb staff that don't use them for their strengths and use them as a athlete also, move them somewhere else and they shine or vice versa.

 

[Smellyman]

Pro Bowlers were drafted after too

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Objectively, using unbiased draftniks, we have sucked with our first pick. Ifedi, McDowell, Penny, Collier? People will make excuses but that is a whole lot of suck.

"I keep getting junkers with my used car purchases, I'm just gonna start riding bikes for my 50-mile commute every day."

 

[onanygivensunday]

Pro Bowlers were drafted after too

Of course they were... but the general consensus is the likelihood of drafting an All Pro or Pro Bowler is the higher you make that selection the more likely you will hit a homerun.