Trade Deadline 2023

[toffee]

Needs
Guard. Our guys get hurt every other game. And they still can’t block the rams

Trade for a LB if a good one is available. I’m nervous of wags wearing down or injury by any of our lb

We could probably steal Thibodeaux from the giants for a 4-5 rounders. Pete could get the most out of him.

Might as well aim higher and ask for Dexter Lawrence

 

[Mick063]

Respectfully, I completely disagree.

The team that values Drew Lock the most is the Seahawks.

We know that no teams viewed Lock as a starting caliber QB going into this year - as evidenced by his contract. My take is that the market for him was very soft, and that a $4M/year contract was average to below average for a backup. Maybe he had others looking at him as a prospect, but no one was looking at him as a starter. And, an above average camp isn't going to change that. The league simply doesn't view him as a starter today.

And, if another team did love him, they simply need to wait until after this season as he's only on a one year contract.

But, the Seahawks clearly see value in him. If Geno goes down, Lock keeps us afloat. He knows the system, has some command of the offense, and is a known resource. Those are only true to one team right now, and that's us.

Just my two cents.

Lock's value as determined by the local peanut gallery is vastly underestimated. What matters most is what is captured on video (not peanut gallery opinion) and just about everything captured on video of Lock within a Seahawk uniform is that of a desirable commodity. With regard to finishing his contract and not being traded, I agree with you. That is the most likely outcome. I didn't claim Lock was definitely going to be traded but claimed that he was the most likely to be traded because I don't think anyone is going to get traded. The only reason I think he is most likely is because I believe that he would be coveted more than you might believe and the staff would accommodate putting Lock in the best position to compete for a starting gig. Teams OFTEN trade players in the final year of their deal because when other teams take a keen interest with a given "final year" player, they prefer not to get into an off-season bidding war for an unrestricted free agent. If a given team believes that others will show interest in a coveted player, they may circumvent that interest by making the trade before he hits the open market. This happens quite often. It typically involves a contract negotiation/extension to accommodate the trade. The buyer basically dictates the terms and purchases the contract and player as a package.

 

[Hawkspeed]

I have been thinking the same thing as other posters about Drew Lock. I am really impressed with his passing skills...he can hit a fast moving target in a small window.

He was undoubtedly low on confidence after a very "unstructured" start to his career...(in Denver, imagine that train wreck). But, it sure seems like he is getting rolling...

With the quarterback market being what it is, maybe he is now ready to "seize the moment" and become the starter on a needy team. I have read that the Texans, Colts, Panthers and several other teams could really use some "new talent".

I think the young Seahawk might be ready to "leave the nest and fly"...He is ready.

 

[FattyKnuckle]

Wasn't Thibodeaux a top 5 pick in last year's draft? Is he playing that horribly that they'd offload him for a 4th or 5th round pick??

Yes and absolutely not.

 

[JerHawk81]

Lock's value as determined by the local peanut gallery is vastly underestimated. What matters most is what is captured on video (not peanut gallery opinion) and just about everything captured on video of Lock within a Seahawk uniform is that of a desirable commodity. With regard to finishing his contract and not being traded, I agree with you. That is the most likely outcome. I didn't claim Lock was definitely going to be traded but claimed that he was the most likely to be traded because I don't think anyone is going to get traded. The only reason I think he is most likely is because I believe that he would be coveted more than you might believe and the staff would accommodate putting Lock in the best position to compete for a starting gig. Teams OFTEN trade players in the final year of their deal because when other teams take a keen interest with a given "final year" player, they prefer not to get into an off-season bidding war for an unrestricted free agent. If a given team believes that others will show interest in a coveted player, they may circumvent that interest by making the trade before he hits the open market. This happens quite often. It typically involves a contract negotiation/extension to accommodate the trade. The buyer basically dictates the terms and purchases the contract and player as a package.

Good post and you raise good points. And, I think we're aligned on most fronts. But, I still think the chances of trading Lock are very low (<1%).

Over the last then years, only two QBs have been traded in October, or the month prior to the trade deadline.

The most recent was in 2021 when Joe Flacco was traded to back up Minshew when Hurts was hurt (6th rounder). Flacco did not throw a pass for Philly that year and wasn't on the team the following year. This was a short term, low cost, security move.

The only time a QB prospect has been traded in the regular season as a potential long term starter was in in 2017 when when NE traded Garoppolo to SF (2nd rounder). SF ended up signing a 5 year, $137M contract with Garoppolo who had yet to throw an NFL pass. I'll eat my hat if anyone gives this type of compensation for Lock in the next few weeks.

When I look at this, I see a few things:

1: QBs aren't often traded in the regular season. I presume because stability is so important for that position.
2: Old QBs who are clearly backups at this point in their career with no upside left, are cheap.
3: Trading for, and signing a young QB with upside as potential starter would cost a ton.

My theory behind this is that during the season, even a backup QB has way more value to their current team (knows system, can step in on short notice) than to another team.

Source: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/transactions/quarterback/trade/

 

[Lagartixa]

I wonder if broncos would trade Russel Wilson to us for a 7th rounder and eat most of the contact? It would be great to have Wilson as our 3rd string QB.

If Wilson is on an NFL roster by the third day of the next league year (in March), his $37M 2025 salary is then fully guaranteed by the team stupid enough to have him on its roster at that time. If he gets injured this season and isn't cleared before the third day of the next league year, he can't be cut and that counts.
NO WAY do I want the Seahawks to put RW3-and-out on their roster this year, even if the Broncos give them a first-round pick and pay all of Wilson's salary this year for them to do so.

 

[Lagartixa]

Drew Lock, our #2 QB was ruled out with a reported ankle injury this week and will not travel to Cincinnati for Sunday’s game with the Bengals. Holton was instead activated to the 53 man roster as Geno Smith’s backup.

Source? Where are you seeing that he has been ruled out and hasn't travelled to Cincinnati?

Condotta had him back and practicing on the 13th, and you posted this today.

@KinesProf appears to be 100% right here. As far as I can make out, @SeaChat just made up Lock being "ruled out" and not traveling to Cincy.

From the Seahawks web site...

In an article about injury updates from Carroll, there's this bit about Lock:

"He stepped on a guy's foot and just turned his ankle a little bit," Carroll said. "He had a really good day today. We weren't sure until we got him out there, but he practiced today and did fine."

Lock's injury led to Seattle adding rookie quarterback Holton Ahlers to the practice squad, and Carroll said they'll wait to make a decision whether or not they need to elevate Ahlers for depth, a decision that has to be made by Saturday afternoon.

In the official game injury report, there's this:

Out

• CB/S Coby Bryant (toe)
• CB Artie Burns (hamstring)

Doubtful

• G Damien Lewis (ankle)

Questionable

• QB Drew Lock (ankle)
• G Phil Haynes (calf)

Boldface and color emphasis in the injury report is mine.

 

[seabowl]

So even if the Seahawk did want to trade Lock, the best we would probably get for him would be a third or fourth round pick. Absolutely not worth it as: not only is any starting quarterback one hit away from going out of the game, but he also looks to be the air apparent to Geno. The risk reward ratio is not in the Seahawks favor for treating him.

 

[FattyKnuckle]

My theory behind this is that during the season, even a backup QB has way more value to their current team (knows system, can step in on short notice) than to another team.

Theory isn't a strong enough word. I think that's the nail head. Several people who've "overvalued" Lock's trade needs are doing so not because he's empirically worth that much but because his value to the team is way higher than his neutral setting value. Depending on how we look at the deadline he may be high 1st round valuable to us and without looking I'm not sure there's a team that'll be good enough to need a QB that badly in-season who also has a high enough 1st round pick to offer.

If we nosedive between now and then, it's a different story. Get something for him while we can. But if we're still in the mix then we'd be absolutely nuts, like 2 firsts and seconds plus a market breaking new contract nuts, to get rid of him without a trade partner who's even more nuts. So I think even <1% is too high of odds.

 

[jammerhawk]

I wonder if broncos would trade Russel Wilson to us for a 7th rounder and eat most of the contact? It would be great to have Wilson as our 3rd string QB.

This post made me almost throw up into my mouth. No thanks!!!

The Hawks are still getting over the damage done by Me3, I’d not trade even a bag of chips for him. He’s no longer a fit here. Good riddance!

 

[jammerhawk]

Back on point, doubt greatly Drew Lock will be traded. He’s too valuable as our backup.

The team still needs penetrators on the interior DLine, but unless another team is offloading a headache case and eating some salary I don’t see the team being that active at the trade deadline.

 

[KinesProf]

If you had asked me before the season I'd lean towards the dline and interior oline. Now? It's kind of hard to nail down a spot of need unless a super high end dline from a bad team became available (such as Derrick Brown, DJ Jones, Leonard Williams, Dexter Lawrence).

But with the seasons guys like Jarran and Mario are having, emerging depth in Cam Young and Myles Adams defensively; and with the play of Brown, Olu, and Bradford offensively. It is tough to say there is any position that the Hawks should give up picks in order to pursue.

Pretty solid and deep all over the place right now.

Knock on wood, a key injury could of course change that.

Turns out that the super high end dline from a bad team became available. Wasn't confident that they would go for it though; but kudos to JS for letting his hang.