The Pete Carroll era is over

[pittpnthrs]

I have all the faith in the world that Pete and John are fully capable of getting the Seahawks back on track and leaders of their division, this year and not next.

I'm interested in hearing how you think this is possible.

they have brought in some serious sleepers that in my humble opinion, are perfect fits for the Seahawks and will put up numbers that far surpass what we would have gotten from Richard, Mike, Paul, Jimmy, Sheldon and some of the others that we have had to part company with.

Wow.

We did good for ourselves in positioning for the Draft and will undoubtedly pickup some super stars this year from there.

We have one pick in the first three rounds. We are in a horrible position right now and the FO hasent drafted a super star in years.

We are at exactly the same place now that we were when they came to the Emerald City,

No we're not. Not even close. We dont have near the draft picks, Pete has been away from the college game for years now and doesnt have first hand experience with the kids being drafted, and the biggest difference,,,,,,no Scot McCloughan.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

How is it possible? They already did it after the crap they were left with from Mora. They can do it again.

 

[pittpnthrs]

How is it possible? They already did it after the crap they were left with from Mora. They can do it again.

This year? I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Silver Hawk]

How is it possible? They already did it after the crap they were left with from Mora. They can do it again.

Of course, they can do it again. However, the odds are difficult, at best. Most every other team in the NFL is always trying to do the same thing. Sort through the usual dustbins (UDFA, other teams’ castoffs, CFL), low level free agency and the draft. This is hardly rocket science or a revelation. The Seahawks struck gold once. Other teams, like the Browns or Bengals, eh, not so much. I’d also suggest that most teams do it over a period of years, instead of 6 months.

If you count Avril and Kam, there will now be 11 2017 players, for sure, that will be gone. That’s 20%+ of the roster. There are most likely at least another 5 that look to be gone (Walsh, Aboushi, Joeckel (already gone?), Rawls, Lacy). Then there's ET. Finally, you can bet the ranch that there will be at least 5 more beyond that, if not many more, by 9/1/18. So, you can quibble with the numbers but at a minimum, I’ll guess that in total, there will be at least 20 new players, or about 40% of the roster. 50% is easily within reach. I’d call that a rebuild. Not sure why that term bothers so many of you but it’s right there.

I did a little digging, trying to find out what has been written in the past, about NFL turnover.

This is an article written in 2010 by Mike Sando. At that time, the Seahawks were lowest in the league, for a retention rate. It was 66.1%. The Vikings were the highest, at 94.4%. The average retention rate was 79.4%. The periods which were compared were May 2010 (apparently, just before article was written) vs. week 17, 2009.

http://www.espn.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_ ... n-turnover

There are plenty of other articles but most look at periods longer than just one year.

 

[NFSeahawks]

Seahawks fan tell I die!

They made the changes they needed to.

Time to buy in again! I believe!

 

[TwistedHusky]

If you have ever driven past one of those billboards by a Casino, the one where they show an aging band playing but you notice that have the members of the band have been switched out for other guys?

That is what this feels like.

Keep the name/brand but change what you can to reduce cost.

First, we stripped salary. We have no choice if we want to keep Wilson because he is going to cost 30M a year or something equally stupid.

But we are not rebuilding. That would require tearing it all down and starting from scratch.

We are not even retooling in the classic sense, because while we are filling holes - this does not look like a 3-4 year plan to get us back on top.

This seems more like keep what you can, strip out the salary and put just as much product on the field as you can so that you can keep extracting dollars from fans' wallets. We probably are shooting for that wildcard, if that.

Maybe Carroll can turn it around, but it is going to be difficult to expect that when Carroll is the very reason for the underperformance in the first place. If Carroll and JS get credit for the rapid rise, then they have to own that slow decline over 4 + years as well. And being okay with the duck and chuck offense that was borderline unwatchable, while grinding our defensive starters into dust is a lot of why this team is where it is now. That part is easily on Carroll.

So if he is the cause, not sure how he can be the savior too. But you never know.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Odds are difficult, but it's possible. I choose to believe. They just don't have the benefit of the low $ contracts of Russ and the rest of the star players they had back then. But I'm not gonna' assume the worst, not my style. I'd rather believe and be wrong than be doom and gloom and be right. Waste of energy to be so negative. To each his/her own. I do expect they miss the playoffs in 2018, but I think they'll be much better in 2019.

 

[Silver Hawk]

Odds are difficult, but it's possible. I choose to believe. They just don't have the benefit of the low $ contracts of Russ and the rest of the star players they had back then. But I'm not gonna' assume the worst, not my style. I'd rather believe and be wrong than be doom and gloom and be right. Waste of energy to be so negative. To each his/her own. I do expect they miss the playoffs in 2018, but I think they'll be much better in 2019.

What is really comical, is how there are those who want to throw shade on those who have pointed out the substantial challenges the Hawks are facing. It’s like someone stole their dog or something.

No one is being overly negative, wasting energy or abandoning the Seahawks. We are simply discussing the reality of some extraordinary changes to the team that we know so well. It can be called a rebuild, reload, retool, whatever anyone wants, since that seems to ruffle feathers. However, with a one year retention rate that is going to be somewhere between 50-60%, there is going to be a big mountain to climb.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Look at it how you want. I prefer being positive, and I know the team has a LOT of work to do. We all look at it our own way. Assuming the worse, meh. And nobody is being overly negative? That's what's comical. There are plenty who flat out HATE every....single....move this team makes. It's entertaining.

 

[Silver Hawk]

Look at it how you want. I prefer being positive, and I know the team has a LOT of work to do. We all look at it our own way. Assuming the worse, meh. And nobody is being overly negative? That's what's comical. There are plenty who flat out HATE every....single....move this team makes. It's entertaining.

No, I don’t think that is the case at all. Most people understand what is happening and why. They also realize the likely impact but still hope for the best. Those two ideas are not mutually exclusive, even though that seems to be the prevailing counter argument.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Look at it how you want. I prefer being positive, and I know the team has a LOT of work to do. We all look at it our own way. Assuming the worse, meh. And nobody is being overly negative? That's what's comical. There are plenty who flat out HATE every....single....move this team makes. It's entertaining.

With me it's not so much these recent moves in a vaccuum, it's the short sighted long range mentality that I've hated.

I was happy about both the Sheldon and Brown moves last year, but that came with the caveat that we keep these guys long term, because we gave up valuable picks and cap space.

So in the moment? Yeah, good moves. But overall not good moves so far, because the player is gone, and so are the picks.

I really don't have much of an opinion on this year's FA moves. These dudes are 3rd tier placeholders for 2018 until John can restock picks and get the cap under control for 2019 and beyond. Ain't no one should be excited about Dickson, Fluker and a CB that the Browns didn't even want.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Largent brings up a challenge that seems to be the result of a really weird issue that almost deserves its own thread now. Bad FA decisions.

What the HELL happened to JS?

I get the draft picks thing. He isn't hitting on draft picks at the same rate since McLoughlan left, and since Scott has a history of doing almost as well in other places - that makes sense. You can give the draft pick success to Scott and when he left the success rate plummeted.

But this is the guy that also brought in Marshawn Lynch, Avril and Michael Bennett. He was very good at bringing in FAs that would be a good fit and literally made the difference. Without Lynch, no SB. Without Avril and Bennett, probably no 2nd SB. These were huge moves that were made a massive difference in the success of the team.

Then? A string of FA flops. Not even bad runs but literally awful choices that you could tell would fail just looking at them at the time they were made.

Cary Williams ? Why bring in an underperforming DB and then pay him big dollars to underperform here?

Harvin? Why even think about bringing in a player that literally was a problem everywhere he went? Wasn't half of what Harvin even did what Golden Tate was doing very well for us already? Why make this move?

Graham? In a team based on running the ball and smashmouth football, is a finesse TE that does not block a fit at all? And what about gutting the line to get him?

I could go on, but this is not things reverting to the mean but instead almost seeming like a different guy. We went from a very capable and shrewdly successful master of the FA markets to a guy that seems to make horrendous disasterous moves every time he ventures into FA with more than a mid-level player. Not to mention that the FA moves we made to lose people seemed to hurt us just as badly.

What the hell happened? Did we have some key person doing FA that we no longer have? How did JS go from being so good at working FA to one of the worse in the league a few years later?

 

[Sgt. Largent]

What the HELL happened to JS?

I think there's a couple things going on.

1. Desperation. Teams that know their window is closing quickly make desperate moves. Both Pete and John have pretty much admitted as much last year, and this off season that the moves last year were to "go for it" with that group of players. It's been only compounded with some terrible recent drafts.

2. John knows that his time here is short, at least with Pete. So unlike other years where he's had more self control when it's come to trades and free agents, he knew that the 2017 Hawks with Pete, the injuries sustained and lack of quality depth all over the place meant that if he wanted to make a run, he'd have to mortgage 2018 with risky cap moves and losing picks.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Maybe.

But that overlooks that a lot of the reason for the desperation was caused by bad moves by JS.

Harvin drove away Tate (just in salary issues), he also drove Kam to holdout (him and that crappy Eagles CB)

Graham destroyed our run game. Not by not blocking but by removing our freaking center who was doing just fine. Sure Britt covered for him but it was never the same.

God knows how many draft picks we gave away in the FA pickups that we blew.

But the key moment I knew JS was over his head was the last draft. We knew we needed guys to backup Kam and Earl. We went into the draft knowing it was one of the best DB drafts in ages. Budda Baker was sitting there as a perfect replacement for Earl if he got hurt or when the contract talks got sticky. And we picked a ...... worthless DT, when DT was not even a need. Crappy average runstop DTs are a dime a dozen, and easy to draft in later rounds.

Meanwhile AZ got Baker, he makes a Pro Bowl, and his play shows the team that they can release Honey Badger.

I would have had a hard time with us picking a OL but a DT? In the last draft? When DL talent wasn't even thick that draft? Why?

It showed me, JS cannot plan, cannot draft and is trying to fill holes with moves that frankly are the result of bad moves by him earlier.

So where the hell is the guy that found Lynch, Avril and Bennett? Because clearly that was not JS, nobody goes from that smart to that stupid overnight.

 

[Seahawks Guy]

Holmgren's era was over because he knew he was going to take that sabbatical, which he knew meant he wouldn't be coaching the Seahawks anymore, and likely would probably never coach again. So he coasted his last couple seasons with the team and put no effort into building a good team. Lazy ass collected his paychecks and then was gone.

It's the biggest reason I don't like Holmgren. Before that, I was okay with him, but never thought he was anything special as far as NFL coaches go. But he screwed over his players, the organization, and the fans when he decided to just ride out his paychecks and then give up.

"I'm taking a sabbatical" lol....who the hell does that? People who don't like their job, that's who. Pete Carroll likes his job. He wants to win. At least, that's my hope. He is getting up there with age. But I don't see the same quit in him like we all saw with Holmgren. That doesn't mean Pete will get us back to the Super bowl, though.

 

[RCATES]

Maybe.

But that overlooks that a lot of the reason for the desperation was caused by bad moves by JS.

Harvin drove away Tate (just in salary issues), he also drove Kam to holdout (him and that crappy Eagles CB)

Graham destroyed our run game. Not by not blocking but by removing our freaking center who was doing just fine. Sure Britt covered for him but it was never the same.

God knows how many draft picks we gave away in the FA pickups that we blew.

But the key moment I knew JS was over his head was the last draft. We knew we needed guys to backup Kam and Earl. We went into the draft knowing it was one of the best DB drafts in ages. Budda Baker was sitting there as a perfect replacement for Earl if he got hurt or when the contract talks got sticky. And we picked a ...... worthless DT, when DT was not even a need. Crappy average runstop DTs are a dime a dozen, and easy to draft in later rounds.

Meanwhile AZ got Baker, he makes a Pro Bowl, and his play shows the team that they can release Honey Badger.

I would have had a hard time with us picking a OL but a DT? In the last draft? When DL talent wasn't even thick that draft? Why?

It showed me, JS cannot plan, cannot draft and is trying to fill holes with moves that frankly are the result of bad moves by him earlier.

So where the hell is the guy that found Lynch, Avril and Bennett? Because clearly that was not JS, nobody goes from that smart to that stupid overnight.

JS is garbage. The good drafts and FA signing's came during Scot McCloughan tenure. The moves JS has made in FA and in the draft the last 3 years has sent the Hawks back into the stone age.

 

[NJlargent]

What the HELL happened to JS?

I think there's a couple things going on.

1. Desperation. Teams that know their window is closing quickly make desperate moves. Both Pete and John have pretty much admitted as much last year, and this off season that the moves last year were to "go for it" with that group of players. It's been only compounded with some terrible recent drafts.

2. John knows that his time here is short, at least with Pete. So unlike other years where he's had more self control when it's come to trades and free agents, he knew that the 2017 Hawks with Pete, the injuries sustained and lack of quality depth all over the place meant that if he wanted to make a run, he'd have to mortgage 2018 with risky cap moves and losing picks.

This is one of the things that aggravates me about the FO. My problem is that the FO clearly made moves that were desperate. And to me that was terrible vision. I never believed that Sheldon Richardson or Duane Brown was ever going to catapult us to the SB. But they could be pieces to a SB win if we built around them. The prior two years we were defeated soundly in the 2 divisional rounds after playing 2 cupcakes in the wildcard round (at home). Signs we were no longer the LOB, or otherwise bad boys of the NFC, were there and obvious. After Atlanta, we should have realized we need a running game to win the SB and need to replace the aging secondary, and therefore needed OL and DBs. As TwistedHusky pointed out, instead we drafted an underwhelming DT in a CB rich draft. We bet the farm on a squad that quite frankly was never more than an 10-11 win team. You don't win a SB with the OL we had last year and a running back by committee, so therefore, betting the farm was stupid.

Additionally, now that we bet the farm, and we have further gutted our team, how could we possibly not be in rebuild mode? The FO swung for the fences and missed badly. So far the response the FO has made still smacks of desperation. We sign 2013 busts, which to me suggests the FO is still in desperation mode. We are signing 2013 busts because the FO is hoping for a quick fix since they do not have much time. Mingo and Dickson are warm bodies at best. Fluker has a chance to be serviceable but is not a difference maker. These are all guys that sound good, and we can extract self-serving optimism from, but they are 2013 busts for a reason.

The problem here is we need a complete new makeup on coaching and bring in guys who have the benefit of time to perform an actual successful rebuild, or bring back Scot M. so we can mimic what was done years ago. Instead we keep drafting guys who are "never were's" and hope they becomes what they were expected to be in the 2013 draft. We need to develop a vision long-term and I don't see anything that provides any comfort in that regard.

 

[chris98251]

Well if we crash and burn I really hope they re-hire Scot as the next GM.

 

[semiahmoo]

Semihoo already said the exact same thing 2 years ago..Everything ends including us at some point.

True. Almost everything I was told and then leaked here has come to pass.

I would love for Pete to have one more run at a SB during whatever time he has left in Seattle but that isn't likely.

There's always hope though.

Go Hawks!

I'm not happy that you turned out right for the most part but I'll eat the crow
when I was one of people who went against it back then.

I appreciate that. I wish the all the stuff said to be going on weren't but it all comes from "in the room" observation. It's a big organization - lots of eyes and ears. I'm sure others have people in the know on this and other forums.

The team has been a mess internally for a while now. Each season has been duct tape and a prayer approach.

We'll see if Pete can pull a rabbit out of his...hat this next season but it's steep odds against that happening.

I think PA genuinely likes Pete but eventually business is business and Pete will be gone like all the rest.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

So now John Schneider is garbage. :roll: