Maulbert
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- Apr 8, 2014
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So, I was noticing that FO has the Rams playoff chances at 100%, even though they haven't clinched a playoff spot yet. I noticed on 538 that they're listed at >99% chance of making the playoffs, and looking at the teams still alive, I thought it was weird that they hadn't clinched yet considering they had beaten both the Bucs and Bears, to secure tiebreakers over those squads, so I did a little fiddling on the playoff machine.
Turns out, if 5 games fall just the right way, the Rams can still be locked out, as long as Tampa beats either Detroit or Atlanta in the last 2 weeks. Here's the scenario:
1. Obviously, the Rams have to lose out. If they win, they're in.
2. The Bears have to win out. They lost the tiebreaker, but they can still block the Rams, potentially.
3. The Cardinals HAVE to lose to the 49ers on Saturday. This is the most key game. In a weird quirk, if the Cardinals win, the Rams make the playoffs immediately.
If the Cards lose to SF and beat LA a week later, combined with a Rams loss to Seattle this week and 2 Bear victories, it would force a 3 way tie at 9-7 for the last 2 wild card spots between the Cards, Bears, and Rams. Because divisional ties are broken first, the Cards, in this scenario splitting with LA and possessing a 3-3 divisional record, would win over the Rams with their 2-4 record in this situation. The Cards would then lose the 6th seed to Chicago, due to their better record in common games. Then, the 7th seed would go to Arizona, locking out the Rams. Also, as mentioned, the Bucs need to win one more game to avoid a 4 way tie, which would leave the Bucs out in the cold.
Likely? No. Possible? Absolutely. Would be hilarious to see it shake out and the Rams miss a better than 99% chance to make the playoffs.
Turns out, if 5 games fall just the right way, the Rams can still be locked out, as long as Tampa beats either Detroit or Atlanta in the last 2 weeks. Here's the scenario:
1. Obviously, the Rams have to lose out. If they win, they're in.
2. The Bears have to win out. They lost the tiebreaker, but they can still block the Rams, potentially.
3. The Cardinals HAVE to lose to the 49ers on Saturday. This is the most key game. In a weird quirk, if the Cardinals win, the Rams make the playoffs immediately.
If the Cards lose to SF and beat LA a week later, combined with a Rams loss to Seattle this week and 2 Bear victories, it would force a 3 way tie at 9-7 for the last 2 wild card spots between the Cards, Bears, and Rams. Because divisional ties are broken first, the Cards, in this scenario splitting with LA and possessing a 3-3 divisional record, would win over the Rams with their 2-4 record in this situation. The Cards would then lose the 6th seed to Chicago, due to their better record in common games. Then, the 7th seed would go to Arizona, locking out the Rams. Also, as mentioned, the Bucs need to win one more game to avoid a 4 way tie, which would leave the Bucs out in the cold.
Likely? No. Possible? Absolutely. Would be hilarious to see it shake out and the Rams miss a better than 99% chance to make the playoffs.