The absurd <1% scenario that bars the Rams from the playoffs

[Maulbert]

So, I was noticing that FO has the Rams playoff chances at 100%, even though they haven't clinched a playoff spot yet. I noticed on 538 that they're listed at >99% chance of making the playoffs, and looking at the teams still alive, I thought it was weird that they hadn't clinched yet considering they had beaten both the Bucs and Bears, to secure tiebreakers over those squads, so I did a little fiddling on the playoff machine.

Turns out, if 5 games fall just the right way, the Rams can still be locked out, as long as Tampa beats either Detroit or Atlanta in the last 2 weeks. Here's the scenario:

1. Obviously, the Rams have to lose out. If they win, they're in.

2. The Bears have to win out. They lost the tiebreaker, but they can still block the Rams, potentially.

3. The Cardinals HAVE to lose to the 49ers on Saturday. This is the most key game. In a weird quirk, if the Cardinals win, the Rams make the playoffs immediately.

If the Cards lose to SF and beat LA a week later, combined with a Rams loss to Seattle this week and 2 Bear victories, it would force a 3 way tie at 9-7 for the last 2 wild card spots between the Cards, Bears, and Rams. Because divisional ties are broken first, the Cards, in this scenario splitting with LA and possessing a 3-3 divisional record, would win over the Rams with their 2-4 record in this situation. The Cards would then lose the 6th seed to Chicago, due to their better record in common games. Then, the 7th seed would go to Arizona, locking out the Rams. Also, as mentioned, the Bucs need to win one more game to avoid a 4 way tie, which would leave the Bucs out in the cold.

Likely? No. Possible? Absolutely. Would be hilarious to see it shake out and the Rams miss a better than 99% chance to make the playoffs.

 

[ivotuk]

That's some crazy ish!

 

[sdog1981]

I now need to see this <1% scenario in my life. I now know who I will be rooting for in the most convoluted way possible.

 

[Uncle Si]

It's crazy that all of that is less than 1%.

The only one that seems really unlikely of all that is the 9ers beating the Cards (they have 27! on IR, if you havent heard )

The rest seems plausible.

 

[RedAlice]

Until any team clinches, it’s always possible they miss.

I am duly IMPRESSED that Maulbert took the energy to write all this about the RAMS though.

 

[diver110]

Wild and crazy. I won’t be betting against the Rams to make it!

 

[Blitzhawk]

It's crazy that all of that is less than 1%.

The only one that seems really unlikely of all that is the 9ers beating the Cards (they have 27! on IR, if you havent heard )

The rest seems plausible.

I kind of see it the other way around. I could see the whiners beating a division rival far more likely than either the lambs losing our or the bears winning out. Those division games are always hard fought blood baths and could potentially go either way.

While it would be hilarious, I would not want to waste any cosmic juju or luck or fate or whatever on it.....seems like it would cost way too much to wish for it. :snack:

 

[pinksheets]

The first domino has fallen...

 

[DomeHawk]

The first domino has fallen...

was that the most unlikely?

 

[renofox]

The first domino has fallen...

was that the most unlikely?

If the Bears beat the Jags and the Packers, and the Seahawks and Cards beat the Rams, Rams do not make playoffs.

Of the 5 games that were needed, I think Bears beating Packers is most unlikely.

 

[pinksheets]

Whisper of a dream...
:shock:

 

[Maulbert]

Everything that needed to happen this weekend happen. Now 2 things are left: a Cards victory over the Rams, and a Bears victory over the Pukers.

Oh, yeah, it's all coming together.

 

[RedAlice]

The most likely scenario remains: Rams v Hawks Round One.

What are your thoughts on that?

 

[Seahawkfan80]

The most likely scenario remains: Rams v Hawks Round One.

What are your thoughts on that?

Goff is a paradigm. Not sure which one shows up at any time. I think it will be a hard fought game and Goff may give one turnover away and that may be the deciding factor.

If The rams can dink and dunk....the game goes the other way. Our Defense seems to be gelling and that is a concern for the other teams. Packer fans are not scared of us....but it is a game and If we go there...they have the Frozen tundra that had snow last night. That is a home field advantage.

Hope you are doing well this year.

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

The most likely scenario remains: Rams v Hawks Round One.

What are your thoughts on that?

Goff's broken thumb pretty much eliminates him, leaving them with putting in someone who's never had a snap or scouring other clubs' ps for the most poachable. I'd say Josh Johnson, but he actually contracted covid and thus might not be available.

So with the injury, tbf I'd feel better about seeing them in the playoffs. Or the Cards or Bears. Tampa is the one i'd prefer to not see.

 

[chris98251]

Goff is going to try and play thru it he said, broken and dislocated and will need surgery.

He is not Brees, Brees had a ligament issue.Broken and probably swollen he will not get a grip on that ball and be able to throw for accuracy or velocity. In fact handoffs could be a problem as well. One good shot or trying to protect himself falling and he can injure it more or be even more ineffective. Lame duck passes is going to turn his next game into a high level turnover game unless they pull him.

 

[Fade]

I need an update to this. How is it looking for week 17?

 

[Polaris]

I need an update to this. How is it looking for week 17?

Basically everything that could go wrong for the LA Rams in week 16 did go wrong. Chicago won, Arizona lost, and the Rams lost.

What that means is if the LA Rams lose to Arizona (which is entirely possible given their QB status), and Chicago wins, then the LA Rams are out. That's because in this scenario Chicago, Arizona, and the Rams would all be logjammed at 9-7, and in a three way tie, if two clubs are in the same division, the divisional tiebreaks are done first and Arizona would have the better divisional record. This eliminates the Rams. Then Chicago would get the 6 seed and Arizona the 7 seed by way of common opponents.