The 2019 Recruiting thread

[JSeahawks]

Time to get this started. I debated if i was going to do this again this year because of the bickering in the last thread over the last month which made it a lot less fun, but i'm going to go for it. To begin with, let me just say that following recruiting is all about optimism and hope for the future. I realize that i'm going to come at things with a green and yellow view point, most of you will come with a purple view point, some with a scarlett and red viewpoint, etc, etc, but it would be awesome if we can keep this a positive thread. It would be awesome if we can celebrate our own commits, discuss each others commits and schools without going down the, "Washington Sucks" "No, Oregon sucks!" route. As usual I follow mostly Oregon and Washington recruiting the most, and i'll probably pay more attention to UCLA this year because of Chip Kelly, but it would be awesome and appreciated if fans of other schools would contribute here as well.

Oregon's class this year should end up somewhere between 20-25 kids. They only have 10 graduating seniors but they're nowhere near the 85 total scholarships limit so they will push some available scholarships forward to the next class. With that, plus some natural attrition i'd bet it will be about 25. Right now the Ducks have 1 guy commited towards the 2019 class:

Marques Caldwell, cornerback from Alvin Texas. He's only a mid 3 star, but he was one of the very first DB offers that Oregon made for this class, so the coaches must really like him. That said, the cornerback coach who he commited to is now at Ole Miss so it wouldnt be a total shock if he decommited, although so far he's saying all the right things. Highlights:

https://www.hudl.com/profile/7903807/Marques-Caldwell

Not sure about UW's class size. Can someone help me out there? Seems like Petersen usually keeps it somewhere between 18-22. They have 3 guys commited already:

Dylan Morris, 4 star QB from Graham, Washington. He's pretty darn good. I actually think he would be a 5 star if he was 6'3" instead of 6'1". As is he's the 87th ranked player in the class. Petersen is one of the best in the business at keeping his commits, but i'm sure a lot of coaches will be in his ear about the depth chart in front of him at UW.

http://www.hudl.com/profile/6348703/Dylan-Morris

Cameron Davis 3 star running back from Upland, California. To be honest, i dont know anything about him.

http://www.hudl.com/profile/7271255/Cameron-Davis

Nathaniel Kaleipo 3 star o'linemen from Rainier Beach in Seattle. 6'6", 300 lbs. He's Danny Shelton's nephew. I know for 100% fact that he was about to commit to Oregon a few months ago (I know the guy who created his "i'm commiting to Oregon" edit), but UW offered him the day before he was set to commit and then he was commited to UW a week later.

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6746549/5a ... 039ce0daaa

So those are the commited, now here are the prospects in Oregon and Washington. Not a ton of talent in the NW this year, as of right now I think there are 4 Washington kids, and 2 Oregon kids worthy of offers from the Washingtons, Oregons and USC"s of the world. Then there are some others that could move up there with good senior seasons.

First the Oregon kids:

Michael Johnson 4 star QB from Sheldon High school in Eugene. He's the son of the Ducks wide receivers coach. He's in the Khalil Tate mold. Elite runner, good enough passer, but passing is not his strength. He's the #2 duel threat QB in the class. Oregon is considered the leader but he's got offers from all of the big boys in college football, so it wont be an easy recruitment. Fun highlight tape to watch:

http://www.hudl.com/profile/5098019/Michael-Johnson-Jr

Patrick Herbert 4 star TE also from Sheldon High School. He's Justin's younger brother. From what i've heard its a 3 team race between Oregon, Washington and Cal. I've heard him mention in interviews that he really likes Oregon's new staff, he also really likes Washington, and his family has a life long relationship with Justin Wilcox which will keep Cal in it. To be honest, I think he'd be a really good 2nd tight end in a class, i'm not sure I would want him as the top dog.

https://www.hudl.com/profile/6243527/Patrick-Herbert

The Washington kid:

Dylan Morris I already talked about him above. He's the #3 pro style qb in the country.

Darien Chase 4 star athlete from Union high school in Vancouver. Could play WR or DB. When Taggart was here this was a guy who was going to be a Duck. He visited Eugene 3 or 4 times this season. I havnt heard his name mentioned since Taggart left. UW has not offered yet as far as i can tell.

https://www.hudl.com/profile/6571914/Darien-Chase

Justus Legg 4 star WDE from Auburn, Washington. This is a guy that the Duck coaches really like. He's visited Eugene a few times including this past weekend on an unofficial visit. UW has not offered him either.

https://www.hudl.com/profile/5495120/Justus-legg

Nathaniel Kalepo Already talked about him above as well.

 

[JSeahawks]

One other thing to keep an eye on this cycle. Hawaii is absolutely loaded with talent. The 2018 class was pretty underwhelming from the Islands, but there's a ton of talent out there this year. I'm sure Pac 12 coaches will be swarming all over the islands.

 

[Anajimmc]

Theme for 2019...Hog Mollies
https://wearesc.com/wheres-the-beef-wait-till-next-year/

 

[JSeahawks]

Theme for 2019...Hog Mollies
https://wearesc.com/wheres-the-beef-wait-till-next-year/

I've heard that the d'line out west is really deep for this class. Not sure about the o'line.

 

[Anajimmc]

Theme for 2019...Hog Mollies
https://wearesc.com/wheres-the-beef-wait-till-next-year/

I've heard that the d'line out west is really deep for this class. Not sure about the o'line.

I'm hearing both, with D-line being the top of the heap.

 

[Glasgow Seahawk]

This wouldnt be till 2020 or later but im curious about how good sam huard is? Been hearing a lot about him but not sure if that is because of who his dad and uncle are and the local media hear being friendly with them. I know UW will have Morris in 2019 and yankoff/sirmon will be in their later years. Do UW even offer assuming he's good enough and wants to follow in their steps?

 

[JSeahawks]

This wouldnt be till 2020 or later but im curious about how good sam huard is? Been hearing a lot about him but not sure if that is because of who his dad and uncle are and the local media hear being friendly with them. I know UW will have Morris in 2019 and yankoff/sirmon will be in their later years. Do UW even offer assuming he's good enough and wants to follow in their steps?

Just looked him up and he's a class of 2021 kid. So still a long way off. By the time he got on campus Yankoff/Sirmon would most likely be redshirt juniors, if my math is right. He does already have an offer from Nevada though, so for a freshman to already have a scholarship offer he must be pretty good.

https://247sports.com/Player/Sam-Huard-46048437

 

[JSeahawks]

My #1 want from the 2019 class, 5 star athlete from Mater Dei high school in California, Bru McCoy. This dude is a straight up beast at either wide receiver, safety or outside linebacker. He’ll probably be USC bound as Mater Dei sends a ton of kids there, but he does have a crystal ball pick to Oregon already.

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6094872/57 ... 83a47a63a0

 

[Anajimmc]

My #1 want from the 2019 class, 5 star athlete from Mater Dei high school in California, Bru McCoy. This dude is a straight up beast at either wide receiver, safety or outside linebacker. He’ll probably be USC bound as Mater Dei sends a ton of kids there, but he does have a crystal ball pick to Oregon already.

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6094872/57 ... 83a47a63a0

We want, and have already called dibs. Also we picked up 3 of his closest buddies yesterday.

 

[JSeahawks]

Man, Georgia already has 3 5 star commits for the ‘19 class. That would be 10 in 2 years, even if they don’t add anymore in the next 12 months.

I’m pretty sure the Ducks have had 5 in the history of their program: canton kamaulate (who medically retired after one bad season), Thomas Tyner, Aric armstead, De’anthony Thomas and Haloti Ngata.

Then Royce Freeman and Colt Lyerla who were both ranked at 5 stars by 1 service, but consensus 4 stars.

 

[DomeHawk]

Man, Georgia already has 3 5 star commits for the ‘19 class. That would be 10 in 2 years, even if they don’t add anymore in the next 12 months.

I’m pretty sure the Ducks have had 5 in the history of their program: canton kamaulate (who medically retired after one bad season), Thomas Tyner, Aric armstead, De’anthony Thomas and Haloti Ngata.

Then Royce Freeman and Colt Lyerla who were both ranked at 5 stars by 1 service, but consensus 4 stars.

It would be interesting to see what percentage of 5-stars go on to successful NFL careers.

 

[JSeahawks]

Man, Georgia already has 3 5 star commits for the ‘19 class. That would be 10 in 2 years, even if they don’t add anymore in the next 12 months.

I’m pretty sure the Ducks have had 5 in the history of their program: canton kamaulate (who medically retired after one bad season), Thomas Tyner, Aric armstead, De’anthony Thomas and Haloti Ngata.

Then Royce Freeman and Colt Lyerla who were both ranked at 5 stars by 1 service, but consensus 4 stars.

It would be interesting to see what percentage of 5-stars go on to successful NFL careers.

Found this article from 2014.

Still, these numbers are a whole-sample benchmark for retention rate by draft position, so keep them in mind as we start to explore other areas. We've also learned that 52 percent of 5-star players get drafted and that 75 percent of those draftees are retained.

Coming out of high school, a 5-star recruit thus has a 39 percent chance of "sticking" in the league. Three of every five will not.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1938 ... ng-the-nfl

Interesting that those stats are pretty much exactly reflected in Oregon's 5 stars. Haloti Ngata had a Hall of Fame level career, Arik Armstead looks like he's going to have a really nice career, De'Anthony Thomas is basically a special teams/fringe roster type guy, and Tyner and Canton never even made it.

 

[A-Dog]

That article would be more useful if included data from 4* and 3* players... it's interesting to know that 39% of 5* players stick in the NFL, but what is the % for 4* and 3*? Are 5* players really that special?

 

[chris98251]

That article would be more useful if included data from 4* and 3* players... it's interesting to know that 39% of 5* players stick in the NFL, but what is the % for 4* and 3*? Are 5* players really that special?

39 percent, so 61 percent come from other ratings. I would think the percentage drops down to 25, 20, 10 and then 3 or something like that.

 

[IndyHawk]

That article would be more useful if included data from 4* and 3* players... it's interesting to know that 39% of 5* players stick in the NFL, but what is the % for 4* and 3*? Are 5* players really that special?

39 percent, so 61 percent come from other ratings. I would think the percentage drops down to 25, 20, 10 and then 3 or something like that.

Simple math..
I'd rather know how many stars did Brady,Rodgers and RW have in their senior years in HS?

 

[A-Dog]

That article would be more useful if included data from 4* and 3* players... it's interesting to know that 39% of 5* players stick in the NFL, but what is the % for 4* and 3*? Are 5* players really that special?

39 percent, so 61 percent come from other ratings. I would think the percentage drops down to 25, 20, 10 and then 3 or something like that.

Simple math..
I'd rather know how many stars did Brady,Rodgers and RW have in their senior years in HS?

It's not simple math. We can't assume by how much the percentage drops. That's why I want more data

 

[JSeahawks]

That article would be more useful if included data from 4* and 3* players... it's interesting to know that 39% of 5* players stick in the NFL, but what is the % for 4* and 3*? Are 5* players really that special?

39 percent, so 61 percent come from other ratings. I would think the percentage drops down to 25, 20, 10 and then 3 or something like that.

Simple math..
I'd rather know how many stars did Brady,Rodgers and RW have in their senior years in HS?

Rodgers was a mid level 3 star coming out of Juco. 86.7.

https://247sports.com/Player/Aaron-Rodgers-48134

Russell Wilson was a low level 3 star, 81.6. 25th ranked duel threat QB.

https://247sports.com/Player/Russell-Wilson-13737

Brady as far as I can tell was not rated, but that was a long time ago, so who knows.

Current Nfl starting qb's who were ranked as 5 stars: Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, Tyrod Taylor

Guys like Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer and Phillip Rivers were apparently recruits before the internet was available, i cant find their rankings.

 

[chris98251]

That article would be more useful if included data from 4* and 3* players... it's interesting to know that 39% of 5* players stick in the NFL, but what is the % for 4* and 3*? Are 5* players really that special?

39 percent, so 61 percent come from other ratings. I would think the percentage drops down to 25, 20, 10 and then 3 or something like that.

Simple math..
I'd rather know how many stars did Brady,Rodgers and RW have in their senior years in HS?

Rodgers was a mid level 3 star coming out of Juco. 86.7.

https://247sports.com/Player/Aaron-Rodgers-48134

Russell Wilson was a low level 3 star, 81.6. 25th ranked duel threat QB.

https://247sports.com/Player/Russell-Wilson-13737

Brady as far as I can tell was not rated, but that was a long time ago, so who knows.

Current Nfl starting qb's who were ranked as 5 stars: Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford.

Guys like Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer and Phillip Rivers were apparently recruits before the internet was available, i cant find their rankings.

Hardly, we had the internet, it was they didn't focus as deeply on recruiting statistics as they do now, remember this site by itself has been around since 1998, and before that the internet was on dial up and AOL was where it was at.

 

[JSeahawks]

Tom Brady, He's too old, couldnt find his rankings
Tyrod Taylor, 5 star, 99.1
Ryan Tannehill, 3 star, 85.1
I have no idea who the Jets QB is, so pass.
Ben Roethlessberger, unranked
Joe Flacco, 3 star 83.3
Andy Dalton 3 star, 83.8
Deshone Kizer, 4 star, 90.7
Blake Bortles, 3 star, 85.9
Marcus Mariota, 3 star, 86.3
Matt Ryan, 3 star, 80.0
Jameis Winston, 5 star, 99.2
Andrew Luck, 4 star, 97.8
Deshaun Watson, 4 star, 97.9
Alex Smith, 2 star, 76.6
Derrick Carr 4 star, 89.1
Phillip Rivers, too old, cant find it.
Paxton Lynch, 2 star, 78,9
Carson Wentz, unranked
Dak Prescott, 3 star, 85.6
Kirk Cousins, 3 star, 80.6
Eli Manning, too old, cant find it
Case Keenum, 2 star, 72.2
Matthew Stafford, 5 star, 99.7
Aaron Rodgers 3 star, 86.6 (as a JUCO)
Mitchell Trubisky, 4 star, 91.6
Drew Brees, too old, cant find rankings
Cam Newton, 5 star, 98.5
Jimmy Garrapolo 2 star, 78.8
Carson Palmer, too old, cant find
Jared Goff, 4 star, 91.5
Russell Wilson, 3 star, 81.6

 

[DomeHawk]

That article would be more useful if included data from 4* and 3* players... it's interesting to know that 39% of 5* players stick in the NFL, but what is the % for 4* and 3*? Are 5* players really that special?

39 percent, so 61 percent come from other ratings. I would think the percentage drops down to 25, 20, 10 and then 3 or something like that.

Simple math..
I'd rather know how many stars did Brady,Rodgers and RW have in their senior years in HS?

Statistical analysis does not factor in anomalies. In the end all you are ever going to get out of it is the likelihood that something might happen, not whether it will or not.