Unless the Seahawks were willing to top those numbers and offer Wilson $36-38m per year on a long extension, why would he sign? He’d be getting $67m for two years work. Remember, his existing contract only contained $61.5m in total guarantees.
A third year on the tag would cost $43m. Under the current cap that wouldn’t be manageable. Who knows where the NFL will be in 2022? At the moment, however, that would likely be the point where Wilson tests the market. Just as Cousins did.
The Seahawks have no leverage in these talks. The only card they can play is an appreciation for Wilson, familiarity and the success they’ve so far enjoyed together. With tens of millions at stake that doesn’t seem sufficient.
Wilson and Rodgers can turn to the Seahawks and lay out three numbers: $30m, $36m, $43m. Annual figures all guaranteed with three franchise tags.
There’s simply no serious incentive for Wilson to take anything Seattle offers that doesn’t compare favourably to what he can get, fully guaranteed, under the tag. It’s not just the cap hit we’re talking about here. Three franchise tags equals about $110m fully guaranteed for three extra seasons.