Russell Wilson and the 3 year, $45.5 million baseline

[Hawkfan77]

Opposing offenses don't stack the box because we don't have any receivers worthy of dedicating two defenders to. Its simple math. Single coverage outside = 8 in the box.

However, what Wilson does do with eight in the box is that two of those 8 have to account for him first . . . one to the right, one to the left. That freezes those two defenders and opens up the middle for Marshawn.

Marshawn average before Russell Wilson? 3.99 for his career, 3.95 with Seattle.

Marshawn average after Russell Wilson? 4.63.

Ok, just stop. Please. Repeat after me:

"Correlation does not prove causation"

Yes, Lynch's average has been better since Wilson, but that doesn't prove Wilson is the cause of that increase. It could be that the OL understood Cable's Zone Blocking Scheme with a year of coaching under their belt. Over the first 7 games of 2011, the Seahawks averaged only 77.7 rushing yards per game. This increased to 134.9 per game over the last 9. Could not the 2012 numbers merely be an extension of the second-half success of the previous year?

Over the last 9 games of 2011, Lynch averaged 104.5 yards per game. In 2012, Lynch's average fell to 99.4 yards per game.

How do you explain the increase over the second half of 2011 without the presence of Russell Wilson, if you claim Wilson to be the cause of the increase from 2011 to 2012 which doesn't really exist if you look at where Lynch's production was at the second half of last season?

So not only does correlation not prove causation, but you don't even have correlation since Lynch was already producing over 100 yards per game *before Wilson arrived*.

So please, please stop trotting around this bullshit statistic as if it means anything. It's completely meaningless, it's false logic, and it's wrong anyway.

Are you actually getting mad that someone said that Lynch benefits from having a QB that is a threat to run? Saying Lynch benefits form Wilson (which is true) does not diminish Lynch...

 

[TheRealDTM]

I think he would have benefited more if defenses didn't play 8 in the box, because they were scared of our passing game.

 

[Anthony!]

I think he would have benefited more if defenses didn't play 8 in the box, because they were scared of our passing game.

First off it was never 8 in the box just for Lynch it included the spies on Wilson.

Actually we did not face 8 in the box as much as you think
Here is an example in from 2013 were it clearly shows we faced 8 in the box 21.27% of the time which was 18th in the league and below the league AVG

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... n-the-box/

Given Wilson is way better rnow than he was then I doubt they are loading up even more now just because of Lynch but rather if they are loading up more now it is because of Wilson and Lynch.

 

[theincrediblesok]

That's why it didn't work with Harvin. When teams played the run Harvin's play worked into the advantages of defenses already having guys there to stop Wilson/Lynch. Especially when teams knew it was always screen passes and jet sweeps for Harvin it made it easier for CBs to take away Kearse and Doug. It also didn't help that Kearse, who use to be very good at blocking, regress last year.

 

[kearly]

I really don't understand the argument of "He's been so undervalued in his rookie contract so we have to make up for that now". That is just completely asinine thinking. That's the same thing as telling someone they need to pay double the price for their car because the last time they got one on sale...

I agree we've gotten a deal on him in his first contract and that RW has played at a much higher level than his contract but that does not mean the team should be penalized or have to back pay him for past performance. That has nothing to do with his future and should have nothing to do with his coming contract. We took a "risk" on him and were smart enough to draft him in the 3rd round when everyone was saying "he's too small" and "he can't be an NFL QB". We took that risk and our reward was getting a Franchise QB on a great deal for the first few years.

Russell should be paid full market value for a Franchise QB now and going forward. He does not get extra because the Seahawks made a great pick in the draft and payed him what he was pre-slotted to make based on where he was drafted. So please people, stop with the crap about needing to pay RW more or pad his contract because he got payed so little in his first deal.

Call it asinine thinking all you want, I guarantee it is part of his and his agent's thought process.

I kinda disagree with you on this one. I don't think I've ever heard an agent make the "you owe us one" kind of argument at the bargaining table. I think there is well established understanding, particularly in the NFL, that deal-making is not an honor based business.

I do think that it probably impacts Wilson's current frustration level. And maybe that, in a roundabout sort of way, motivates Wilson and his agent to play hardball at the bargaining table.

 

[hawknation2015]

I really don't understand the argument of "He's been so undervalued in his rookie contract so we have to make up for that now". That is just completely asinine thinking. That's the same thing as telling someone they need to pay double the price for their car because the last time they got one on sale...

I agree we've gotten a deal on him in his first contract and that RW has played at a much higher level than his contract but that does not mean the team should be penalized or have to back pay him for past performance. That has nothing to do with his future and should have nothing to do with his coming contract. We took a "risk" on him and were smart enough to draft him in the 3rd round when everyone was saying "he's too small" and "he can't be an NFL QB". We took that risk and our reward was getting a Franchise QB on a great deal for the first few years.

Russell should be paid full market value for a Franchise QB now and going forward. He does not get extra because the Seahawks made a great pick in the draft and payed him what he was pre-slotted to make based on where he was drafted. So please people, stop with the crap about needing to pay RW more or pad his contract because he got payed so little in his first deal.

Call it asinine thinking all you want, I guarantee it is part of his and his agent's thought process.

I kinda disagree with you on this one. I don't think I've ever heard an agent make the "you owe us one" kind of argument at the bargaining table. I think there is well established understanding, particularly in the NFL, that deal-making is not an honor based business.

I do think that it probably impacts Wilson's current frustration level. And maybe that, in a roundabout sort of way, motivates Wilson and his agent to play hardball at the bargaining table.

If the anonymously-sourced reports are to be believed, Russell's baseball agent is seeking something a lot different than how the team has previously operated. Instead of the usual extension on top of his current deal, this agent appears to want Wilson's contract reworked to include this year's salary, which would average out to $5+ million more per year than Wilson was previously expected to sign for.

In many ways, that kind of demand would greatly diminish the team's incentive to sign him to an extension this year when they are essentially asking for the kind of contract he might receive next year if he were not franchised.

In that scenario, where there is little advantage to paying him now what he might get on the open market two or three years from now, it would be wise for the team to wait for a time when they can either wield the franchise tag as a negotiating ploy or wait for Wilson's camp to acquiesce to a deal that will allow the team to continue to surround him with playmakers and to maintain a championship-caliber defense.

Wilson should be thinking about this extension on the macro level, knowing that winning with a great supporting cast is what will ultimately make him the most money in the longterm. The fame and endorsement opportunities that he has already received can be credited in part to what the team as a whole has accomplished over the last three years. Imagine what those opportunities would become if he signed an extension that allowed the team to continue competing for championships every year. That's only a few million dollars less per year to improve his chances at true greatness.

 

[KiwiHawk]

Are you actually getting mad that someone said that Lynch benefits from having a QB that is a threat to run? Saying Lynch benefits form Wilson (which is true) does not diminish Lynch...

No, i just get annoyed when people trot out logical fallacy and quote it as if it was gospel. Then the next person comes along and picks up this alleged "fact" and uses it in another thread and it eventually becomes lore, without anyone bothering to think about it or apply any reasoning whatsoever to the situation.

Now we have supposedly rational people in this thread trying to justify Russell Wilson being responsible for an increase in Marshawn Lynch's production that doesn't exist. It's just stupid.

There is a 99.97% correlation between US spending on science and technology and suicides by hanging or suffocation, which in turn has a 99.34% correlation with the number of lawyers in North Carolina.

There is a 95.86% correlation between per-capita consumption of mozzerella cheese and the number of civil engineering doctorates awarded.

There is a 95.24% correlation between people falling out of fishing boats and the marriage rate in Kentucky.

Thee is a 97.17% correlation between the number of people who died falling out of their wheelchair and the unadjusted cost of 16 oz. of potato chips.

All of those are far closer correlations than the presence of Russell Wilson to the average rushing yards per game of Marshawn Lynch, yet no sane person would argue a causative relation between any of them.

But just because people want to add to the emerging legend that is Russell Wilson, suddenly this increase in Lynch's production is manufactured and attributed to Wilson, when *it actually began before Wilson arrived* and is more likely a reflection upon the success of the implementation of the zone blocking scheme which is what we brought Tom Cable here to do in the first place.

And even then I am saying it's "more likely" not "because of Tom Cable".

I don't have an agenda for or against Wilson. I recall his great games, and I recall him digging some pretty big holes for himself that most of the time (SB excluded) he managed to climb his way out of. I'm not going to pretend he's the best QB in the NFL as he wants to be paid, and I am concerned that maybe he's peaked and that he's becoming overconfident in his ability to work magic and overly reliant on scrambling around instead of taking what's there.

Don't get me wrong - he does brilliant things. But he also does some stupid things. Actually, I should correct that - he does things that he sees that maybe the guys around him aren't quite on the same page with.

I'm a big Rugby fan. The Auckland Blues had a brilliant player named Carlos Spencer. He do things so unexpectedly that the opposition would be baffled. Unfortunately his teammates often weren't expecting it either so it would end up as a negative play. Absolutely brilliant when it worked, and tragic when it didn't.

I'm seeing more of that from Wilson than I like, to be honest. I don't know if he's frustrated with receivers who can't get open, or if he's trying too hard to go for big plays in sandlot time once the routes have broken down, or what, but there were some very serious issues in the passing game at the end of last season that need to be addressed, and I am not convinced making Wilson the highest-paid QB in the league is the wisest thing to do with such questions looming.

 

[KiwiHawk]

Kiwi, we could go round and round about this, and I'm almost tempted because your insults sound so cute in my imagined accent, however I will leave it at this . . .

Dude, I'm American - I moved to New Zealand 12 years ago but I still say "fish and chips" instead of "fush and chups". So go ahead and take a swing. Just know my issue is with the false logic, not your support of Wilson, his ability to run, or the potential threat he represents.

It's just that Lynch was averaging more per game over the second half of 2011 when Wilson was still playing college ball than he did when Wilson was our starting QB, so I don't buy the theory of a causative relationship resulting in an increase in Lynch's performance. Lynch is just a badass in his own right.

Historically this site has been really bad with logic. No one really pulls up anyone when they use false logic or cheap debating tactics. Sometimes it just gets to me. Nothing personal meant - yours just happens the be the nth+1 time I've seen that "fact", where n is the number of times I can stand to see the same piece of false logic being regurgitated.

 

[theincrediblesok]

I'm a big Marshawn fan way before Wilson got here and I love me some Marshawn. To me the zone blocking is good but Marshawn most often than not will find his way to get through, that's why he leads in broken tackles in most years. Lynch is the best if not one of the best I've seen run the ball cause he runs hard, he wears down defenses, he does not shy away, which makes him the most dangerous guy on the field. Others have opinion that it's AP or Mccoy, but I'll stick with Lynch.

I just think that when Wilson arrived it also helped Marshawn, not that he needed it but it helped him be more efficient without having to have a lot of touches to gain 100 yards if that's what your basing his game on.

I've already stated above if you had a chance to see my stats that Lynch had to have more carries in 2011 to help carry the offense as Tarvaris was not doing enough which will boost up his yards per game. Once Wilson got here, his running also put another threat element which also give the defense a little hesitation that would give Lynch an extra step before being tackle.

I'm not saying you can't have your opinion but you can't deny me or others of our opinion.

 

[Hawkfan77]

It's just that Lynch was averaging more per game over the second half of 2011 when Wilson was still playing college ball than he did when Wilson was our starting QB, so I don't buy the theory of a causative relationship resulting in an increase in Lynch's performance. Lynch is just a badass in his own right

How many carries did he have and what was his yards per carry?

Also who said Lynch wasn't awesome??

 

[McGruff]

Lynch is awesome. Maximizing that awesomeness has been the result of 3 interwoven influences.

1. Learning the ZBS . . . it took almost a full season for Marshawn to trust it. But I'm not sure how much that made him what he is. Marshawn was never the kind of back you watched and said "this guy just fits the ZBS!" He didn't, but he learned it cause he had to.

2. The Read Option . . . this is where you really see Lynch's YPC stats take off. Midway through the 2012 we started using it, and we haven't looked back.

3. The threat of Russell Wilson with both his legs (early) and his arm (later) . . . defenses simply must account for his running with dedicated defenders, taking at least one player off the block for defending the inside run (often two pre-snap). In addition, 8 in the box means single safety deep coverage, and Wilson has shown the ability to hit the red line passes when given the go ahead.

I think if someone out there diagnosed defenses against us, you'd find a lot less 8 man boxes than you'd expect anyway, and I also expect that out of those 8 man boxes, at least one of those 8 is there to spy Russ.

What this offense needs is not a QB. What it needs is Jimmy to be Jimmy and Lockett to be Lockett. Oh, and a little pass blocking would help too.

 

[Anthony!]

Are you actually getting mad that someone said that Lynch benefits from having a QB that is a threat to run? Saying Lynch benefits form Wilson (which is true) does not diminish Lynch...

No, i just get annoyed when people trot out logical fallacy and quote it as if it was gospel. Then the next person comes along and picks up this alleged "fact" and uses it in another thread and it eventually becomes lore, without anyone bothering to think about it or apply any reasoning whatsoever to the situation.

Now we have supposedly rational people in this thread trying to justify Russell Wilson being responsible for an increase in Marshawn Lynch's production that doesn't exist. It's just stupid.

There is a 99.97% correlation between US spending on science and technology and suicides by hanging or suffocation, which in turn has a 99.34% correlation with the number of lawyers in North Carolina.

There is a 95.86% correlation between per-capita consumption of mozzerella cheese and the number of civil engineering doctorates awarded.

There is a 95.24% correlation between people falling out of fishing boats and the marriage rate in Kentucky.

Thee is a 97.17% correlation between the number of people who died falling out of their wheelchair and the unadjusted cost of 16 oz. of potato chips.

All of those are far closer correlations than the presence of Russell Wilson to the average rushing yards per game of Marshawn Lynch, yet no sane person would argue a causative relation between any of them.

But just because people want to add to the emerging legend that is Russell Wilson, suddenly this increase in Lynch's production is manufactured and attributed to Wilson, when *it actually began before Wilson arrived* and is more likely a reflection upon the success of the implementation of the zone blocking scheme which is what we brought Tom Cable here to do in the first place.

And even then I am saying it's "more likely" not "because of Tom Cable".

I don't have an agenda for or against Wilson. I recall his great games, and I recall him digging some pretty big holes for himself that most of the time (SB excluded) he managed to climb his way out of. I'm not going to pretend he's the best QB in the NFL as he wants to be paid, and I am concerned that maybe he's peaked and that he's becoming overconfident in his ability to work magic and overly reliant on scrambling around instead of taking what's there.

Don't get me wrong - he does brilliant things. But he also does some stupid things. Actually, I should correct that - he does things that he sees that maybe the guys around him aren't quite on the same page with.

I'm a big Rugby fan. The Auckland Blues had a brilliant player named Carlos Spencer. He do things so unexpectedly that the opposition would be baffled. Unfortunately his teammates often weren't expecting it either so it would end up as a negative play. Absolutely brilliant when it worked, and tragic when it didn't.

I'm seeing more of that from Wilson than I like, to be honest. I don't know if he's frustrated with receivers who can't get open, or if he's trying too hard to go for big plays in sandlot time once the routes have broken down, or what, but there were some very serious issues in the passing game at the end of last season that need to be addressed, and I am not convinced making Wilson the highest-paid QB in the league is the wisest thing to do with such questions looming.

we ended the season with 6 wins in a row and Wilson had a Qb rating of 102 during that time and a complt % of 65, 7 tds and only 2 ints. and a 9.2 ypa. Sure does not seem like a passing game that had issues. They could have been better but having a #1 target will help that. As to the rest of your post your entitled to your opinion. To be your biggest issue appears to be that Wilson does things when a play breaks down that usually works but sometimes does not, and that sometimes his team is not on the same page. You could be right, but the bigger question is why are the plays breaking down so much that it is a concern, and that answer is a combination of oline, wr, and play calling.

 

[Hawkpower]

Kiwi, we could go round and round about this, and I'm almost tempted because your insults sound so cute in my imagined accent, however I will leave it at this . . .

The difference between late 2011 and early 2012 could easily be explained by a rookie QB and teams not fearing a young and inexperienced Wilson and keying on Lynch. In addition, we didn't incorporate the read option until midway through 2012. His running was pretty minimal and scramble based until then.

The more salient point is that we have enough sample size before AND after Wilson at this point to attribute some degree of causation, especially when coupled with observational evidence that indeed Wilson does generally have at least one, if not two defenders assigned to him. That brief moment of indecision leaves more room for Lynch.

Russell and the running game is a symbiotic relationship. He benefits from it, but he also contributes to it, both with and without the ball.

Not to mention your HC already said Wilson is a huge reason for the success and is a huge part of the running game.

"your" head coach? Which coach directs the team you pull for on Sundays then if its not Pete?

Outing yourself again Anthony.

 

[Anthony!]

Kiwi, we could go round and round about this, and I'm almost tempted because your insults sound so cute in my imagined accent, however I will leave it at this . . .

The difference between late 2011 and early 2012 could easily be explained by a rookie QB and teams not fearing a young and inexperienced Wilson and keying on Lynch. In addition, we didn't incorporate the read option until midway through 2012. His running was pretty minimal and scramble based until then.

The more salient point is that we have enough sample size before AND after Wilson at this point to attribute some degree of causation, especially when coupled with observational evidence that indeed Wilson does generally have at least one, if not two defenders assigned to him. That brief moment of indecision leaves more room for Lynch.

Russell and the running game is a symbiotic relationship. He benefits from it, but he also contributes to it, both with and without the ball.

Not to mention your HC already said Wilson is a huge reason for the success and is a huge part of the running game.

"your" head coach? Which coach directs the team you pull for on Sundays then if its not Pete?

Outing yourself again Anthony.

Dude try not to be such a jerk. I said it that way for a reason. The outing being done here is you outing yourself as a jerk. I have made it very clear what team I pull for, I said it that was to make a point to the poster.

 

[Hawkpower]

I'm a big Marshawn fan way before Wilson got here and I love me some Marshawn. To me the zone blocking is good but Marshawn most often than not will find his way to get through, that's why he leads in broken tackles in most years. Lynch is the best if not one of the best I've seen run the ball cause he runs hard, he wears down defenses, he does not shy away, which makes him the most dangerous guy on the field. Others have opinion that it's AP or Mccoy, but I'll stick with Lynch.

I just think that when Wilson arrived it also helped Marshawn, not that he needed it but it helped him be more efficient without having to have a lot of touches to gain 100 yards if that's what your basing his game on.

I've already stated above if you had a chance to see my stats that Lynch had to have more carries in 2011 to help carry the offense as Tarvaris was not doing enough which will boost up his yards per game. Once Wilson got here, his running also put another threat element which also give the defense a little hesitation that would give Lynch an extra step before being tackle.

I'm not saying you can't have your opinion but you can't deny me or others of our opinion.

From what I read he wasn't denying anyone's opinion, just stating that the facts presented didnt necessarily prove what the poster claimed them to prove.

There is no doubt that the RW and Marshawn benefit from each other....greatly!!

 

[Hawkpower]

Kiwi, we could go round and round about this, and I'm almost tempted because your insults sound so cute in my imagined accent, however I will leave it at this . . .

The difference between late 2011 and early 2012 could easily be explained by a rookie QB and teams not fearing a young and inexperienced Wilson and keying on Lynch. In addition, we didn't incorporate the read option until midway through 2012. His running was pretty minimal and scramble based until then.

The more salient point is that we have enough sample size before AND after Wilson at this point to attribute some degree of causation, especially when coupled with observational evidence that indeed Wilson does generally have at least one, if not two defenders assigned to him. That brief moment of indecision leaves more room for Lynch.

Russell and the running game is a symbiotic relationship. He benefits from it, but he also contributes to it, both with and without the ball.

Not to mention your HC already said Wilson is a huge reason for the success and is a huge part of the running game.

"your" head coach? Which coach directs the team you pull for on Sundays then if its not Pete?

Outing yourself again Anthony.

Dude try not to be such a jerk. I said it that way for a reason. The outing being done here is you outing yourself as a jerk. I have made it very clear what tam I pull for, I said it that was to make a point to the poster.

And what point was that, that you were trying to make? To be fair, it's like the third time you have slipped up and referred to the Seahawks from the outside, and it explains your posts completely. Its no worries man, you can pull for any team you like, you just have to understand you have a different perspective than many of the rest of us. You are a RW fan, first and foremost (which is cool!!) and the rest of us are SEAHAWK fans first, RW fans second.

Sorry for the hurt feelings my friend You seem like a passionate kid, not unlike myself when I was younger!

 

[Hawkfan77]

You are a RW fan, first and foremost (which is cool!!) and the rest of us are SEAHAWK fans first, RW fans second.

I don't understand posts like this. Who are you to say how big of a fan someone is? Challenging the level of fandom here or saying someone isn't as a good as you is not looked too kindly upon here by the mods.

The QB position is possibly the most important position in all of sports, RW is a very good QB, I would personally say he is an elite QB. You don't let elite/franchise level QBs walk away and expect to see no drop off. There's a reason that even mediocre QBs (Tannehill, Dalton, Kaepernick) get decently sized to mega deals in the NFL. Because QB is that important. Teams don't even let the mediocre guys walk away, or they pay too much in trades (KC with Cassel and Alex Smith) to get any kind of stability at the position.

 

[JimmyG]

You are a RW fan, first and foremost (which is cool!!) and the rest of us are SEAHAWK fans first, RW fans second.

I don't understand posts like this. Who are you to say how big of a fan someone is? Challenging the level of fandom here or saying someone isn't as a good as you is not looked too kindly upon here by the mods.

I didn't take it as an insult. I think he was just saying "you're such an ardent supporter of Wilson that it might cloud your judgement a little".

 

[Hawkpower]

You are a RW fan, first and foremost (which is cool!!) and the rest of us are SEAHAWK fans first, RW fans second.

I don't understand posts like this. Who are you to say how big of a fan someone is? Challenging the level of fandom here or saying someone isn't as a good as you is not looked too kindly upon here by the mods.

The QB position is possibly the most important position in all of sports, RW is a very good QB, I would personally say he is an elite QB. You don't let elite/franchise level QBs walk away and expect to see no drop off. There's a reason that even mediocre QBs (Tannehill, Dalton, Kaepernick) get decently sized to mega deals in the NFL. Because QB is that important. Teams don't even let the mediocre guys walk away, or they pay too much in trades (KC with Cassel and Alex Smith) to get any kind of stability at the position.

Not challenging the level of fandom at all. When someone is a fan of RW, and in turn kind of likes the Seahawks as a result, its a different perspective than when you have been a Seahawk fan since birth and happen to have a great QB like RW at the helm. Neither one is wrong, I had just been confused by his outlook at times over the years and now it makes sense. That's all.

And just curious why your second paragraph includes a lesson on QB importance. I love RW. You must have me confused with someone else.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Weather he is Elite or not is a matter of opinion, however one thing that is not is the fact that he has not had the weapons in the passing game around him that most of the top QBs have. He has never had his Gronk, his Nelson, his Hilton, and so on. Or an oline that is good at pass blocking. This year he has that weapon, but the oline is still a question mark. To me for him to do what he has given the lack of pass weapons around him makes him Elite. Not many other QBs could have done it. However that is a matter of opinion, and that is not taking into account what he does for our running game or how since Wilson our defense is on the field an avg of 6 minutes less than before Wilson. Add to all this he faces the most top 10 defenses in the league every year. In can think of only 1 QB currently playing that might be bale to do what Wilson has done with the limitation around him, RODGERS.

Sure. He definitely needs weapons in the passing game, and this offseason I think we definitely accomplished that. But at the same time, the identity of this team revolves around ball control and pounding the football for 4 quarters. If you start to get too many toys that you want to play with in the passing game, you get the Percy Harvin effect on offense.

Rodgers is on his own planet really. The guy is so good when he's healthy. Hell if Brandon Bostick doesn't take a football to the face, he beats us on one leg. I don't think it's fair to expect Wilson to blossom into Rodgers if we gave him a couple more weapons in the passing game.