Rapoport: Wilson's agent likely to end contract talks soon

[hawknation2015]

Now, let's use outrageous franchise tag numbers that are more unlikely than not of $25 next year and 120% the following year plus the $1.6 due this year.

$56.6 - insurance and loss of interest on signing bonus ($1.2 million) = $55.4 million
OR
$56.5 + not paying insurance and collecting interest ($1.2 million) = $57.7 million

If this scenario is close to what actually happens, Russell will be chasing $2.3 million into his next contract. On a future 4 year deal he would only have to sign for a meager $22,575,000 per year to catch up to the amount lost by the fourth year.

Like I've been saying all along, it makes no sense for Russell to not sign an extension this season. Signing now gets him to free agency sooner and will give everyone peace of mind on the future. The deal will be done soon.

Now play this hypothetical out through the life of the four-year extension.

If he signs this hypothetical four-year extension for $22 million per year, with a $25 million signing bonus, he would make an average of around $15.75 million in years three and four. However, if he refuses to sign an extension over the next two years, capitalizing on two exclusive franchise tags, he could then sign an enormous deal worth (conservatively) $25 million per year before the 2018 season. With a (conservatively estimated) $30 million signing bonus, his take-home in 2018, when accounting for base salary, would then be at least double what he would have made had he signed that extension. His base pay in 2019 would also be substantially larger than the $15.75 million average under the proposed extension. That's (a conservatively-estimated) $25+ million more over two years that could be extracted by playing hardball.

I don't think there's any doubt that if Russell wants to absolutely maximize his value, without regard for the headaches and cap issues it will create for his team, he could do it by refusing to sign an extension.

Yes he could.

The $25 million signing bonus he would have received THIS year would likely be at or above the worth of a $30 million signing bonus in three years and if he does sign for $25 million/year he would still be chasing lost money into his second season under his new deal. Plus, he would then be two years further from reaching another big payday assuming he stays at or rises above his current level of play.

All of this makes for fun conversation, but I don't think Russell will make it that difficult or take such a big risk for such a small percentage gain.

It's $88 million in four years if he signs the extension at the highest current rate vs. (conservatively estimated) $115+ million over four years if he forces them to use the exclusive tag twice ($25 + $30 million) and then signs a new deal somewhere at the future rate ($25+ million per year with a 30+ million signing bonus).

He could make as much or more in three years under the "hardball" path ($25 million exclusive tag in 2016 + $30 million exclusive tag in 2017 + $30 million signing bonus in 2018 + just $3+ million in base salary in 2018) as he would in four years by signing this extension at the top rate.

 

[rideaducati]

Now, let's use outrageous franchise tag numbers that are more unlikely than not of $25 next year and 120% the following year plus the $1.6 due this year.

$56.6 - insurance and loss of interest on signing bonus ($1.2 million) = $55.4 million
OR
$56.5 + not paying insurance and collecting interest ($1.2 million) = $57.7 million

If this scenario is close to what actually happens, Russell will be chasing $2.3 million into his next contract. On a future 4 year deal he would only have to sign for a meager $22,575,000 per year to catch up to the amount lost by the fourth year.

Like I've been saying all along, it makes no sense for Russell to not sign an extension this season. Signing now gets him to free agency sooner and will give everyone peace of mind on the future. The deal will be done soon.

Now play this hypothetical out through the life of the four-year extension.

If he signs this hypothetical four-year extension for $22 million per year, with a $25 million signing bonus, he would make an average of around $15.75 million in years three and four. However, if he refuses to sign an extension over the next two years, capitalizing on two exclusive franchise tags, he could then sign an enormous deal worth (conservatively) $25 million per year before the 2018 season. With a (conservatively estimated) $30 million signing bonus, his take-home in 2018, when accounting for base salary, would then be at least double what he would have made had he signed that extension. His base pay in 2019 would also be substantially larger than the $15.75 million average under the proposed extension. That's (a conservatively-estimated) $25+ million more over two years that could be extracted by playing hardball.

I don't think there's any doubt that if Russell wants to absolutely maximize his value, without regard for the headaches and cap issues it will create for his team, he could do it by refusing to sign an extension.

Yes he could.

The $25 million signing bonus he would have received THIS year would likely be at or above the worth of a $30 million signing bonus in three years and if he does sign for $25 million/year he would still be chasing lost money into his second season under his new deal. Plus, he would then be two years further from reaching another big payday assuming he stays at or rises above his current level of play.

All of this makes for fun conversation, but I don't think Russell will make it that difficult or take such a big risk for such a small percentage gain.

It's $88 million in four years if he signs the extension at the highest current rate vs. (conservatively estimated) $115+ million over four years if he forces them to use the exclusive tag twice ($25 + $30 million) and then signs a new deal somewhere at the future rate ($25+ million per year with a 30+ million signing bonus).

He could make as much or more in three years under the "hardball" path ($25 million exclusive tag in 2016 + $30 million exclusive tag in 2017 + $30 million signing bonus in 2018 + just $3+ million in base salary in 2018) as he would in four years by signing this extension at the top rate.

I think your numbers for the tag are higher than what will actually be the case. I would bet that it will be closer to $22.5 and $27. Drew Brees and Joe Flacco are the only two over $23.9 million and Flacco will likely restructure and Brees might get cut. By not signing, Russell is also gambling on numbers that can fluctuate away from his favor.

As far as your scenario goes, sure, he could do that, but the team that signed that sort of deal would have to backload that contract pretty heavily. Again, I just don't see Russell playing over 48 games without long term security and being a jerk about it.

If I were Schneider, I would go as high as $25/year, but I would INSIST on a fifth year to do so.

If I were Russell, I would play for $22.5/year, but I would INSIST on three year deal.

If I were to guess, I would guess a deal is signed for $23/year for four years.

I think Russell wants to see that "$100 million" mark.

 

[lukerguy]

Russell Wilson is the only person who knows if he has the leverage or if Seattle has the leverage.

If he wants to be paid 25+ million a year, there is a team willing to do so to obtain him without giving up players/picks. I guarantee it.

Here's the definition of leverage:
To use (something) to maximum advantage

Russell makes enough in endorsements to live like a king. He doesn't NEED his extra $20MM this year.

The only perceived "leverage" Seattle has in this situation is time and team (city), not money. If Wilson is not concerned with time or what team he plays for, he can surely cash in more elsewhere, and that is a fact. Rodgers is 100% correct that an open market will yield Wilson the biggest contract.

We will only find out in time who actually holds the leverage in this negotiation.

To guys like Sherm/ Chanc/Earl getting big payouts early and staying with their brothers is more important than being paid like a true unrestricted FA...With that said, Russell is a different guy, and none of us know if he's even the slightest bit concerned about being paid immediately or which team he plays with.

 

[Hawkpower]

See that Super Bowl QB list posted earlier?Do you see a bad defense in there?Defense wins Championships!Yes the Seattle D blew a 10 point lead late but you have to recall all the injuries the D had prior and during the game.Do not fool yourself believing that didn't matter.

And "Don't Fool Yourself Believing" that it all the wins were with just the Defenses ALONE.
You'd try and have us believe that all wins across the board are because of Defenses only, I ain't buying.
If you look at that list objectively, you'll notice that there were some World class Quarterbacks, Receivers, Tight Ends & RB's amongst the bunch.

Sure, but if I'm a GM in the NFL, and I get to pick top ranked defense or huge chunk of my cap hit on a QB, I'm picking defense every time and its not even close.

Of course its nice to have both, but dominant defenses dominate in the NFL.

 

[Hawkpower]

Russell Wilson is the only person who knows if he has the leverage or if Seattle has the leverage.

If he wants to be paid 25+ million a year, there is a team willing to do so to obtain him without giving up players/picks. I guarantee it.

Here's the definition of leverage:
To use (something) to maximum advantage

Russell makes enough in endorsements to live like a king. He doesn't NEED his extra $20MM this year.

The only perceived "leverage" Seattle has in this situation is time and team (city), not money. If Wilson is not concerned with time or what team he plays for, he can surely cash in more elsewhere, and that is a fact. Rodgers is 100% correct that an open market will yield Wilson the biggest contract.

We will only find out in time who actually holds the leverage in this negotiation.

To guys like Sherm/ Chanc/Earl getting big payouts early and staying with their brothers is more important than being paid like a true unrestricted FA...With that said, Russell is a different guy, and none of us know if he's even the slightest bit concerned about being paid immediately or which team he plays with.

Your last paragraph is so right on.

We have no idea. I think we thought we knew Wilson based on his carefully crafted public persona he submits to the fans and media. With the choices regarding the contract potentially conflicting with that image, many fans are having a tough time knowing how to react.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Russell Wilson is the only person who knows if he has the leverage or if Seattle has the leverage.

If he wants to be paid 25+ million a year, there is a team willing to do so to obtain him without giving up players/picks. I guarantee it.

Here's the definition of leverage:
To use (something) to maximum advantage

Russell makes enough in endorsements to live like a king. He doesn't NEED his extra $20MM this year.

The only perceived "leverage" Seattle has in this situation is time and team (city), not money. If Wilson is not concerned with time or what team he plays for, he can surely cash in more elsewhere, and that is a fact. Rodgers is 100% correct that an open market will yield Wilson the biggest contract.

We will only find out in time who actually holds the leverage in this negotiation.

To guys like Sherm/ Chanc/Earl getting big payouts early and staying with their brothers is more important than being paid like a true unrestricted FA...With that said, Russell is a different guy, and none of us know if he's even the slightest bit concerned about being paid immediately or which team he plays with.

Your last paragraph is so right on.

We have no idea. I think we thought we knew Wilson based on his carefully crafted public persona he submits to the fans and media. With the choices regarding the contract potentially conflicting with that image, many fans are having a tough time knowing how to react.

No his last paragraph is pure speculation and couple that with the FACT that quarterback contract negotiations are unique to each quarterback and have a completely different progression than ANY position group beyond elite MLB TOR pitchers if even that.

Basically the position is unique in any sport you can name hence the negotiations are just as unique and filled with drama and posturing like any decent Mexican standoff.

Despite what is out in the media it isn't Wilson with the leverage. This isn't baseball where even a 3rd round pick goes to arbitration (real leverage), guaranteed contracts from the start and a sport that is basically non-contact, individual and you can play into your forties at elite levels.

Oh, yeah just so you know nobody but Brady, Rodgers and Manning make any endorsement money of note via NFL players when talking the big time money. Especially compared to the other major sports and/or celebrity types.

 

[ctrcat]

Russell Wilson is the only person who knows if he has the leverage or if Seattle has the leverage.

If he wants to be paid 25+ million a year, there is a team willing to do so to obtain him without giving up players/picks. I guarantee it.

Here's the definition of leverage:
To use (something) to maximum advantage

Russell makes enough in endorsements to live like a king. He doesn't NEED his extra $20MM this year.

The only perceived "leverage" Seattle has in this situation is time and team (city), not money. If Wilson is not concerned with time or what team he plays for, he can surely cash in more elsewhere, and that is a fact. Rodgers is 100% correct that an open market will yield Wilson the biggest contract.

We will only find out in time who actually holds the leverage in this negotiation.

To guys like Sherm/ Chanc/Earl getting big payouts early and staying with their brothers is more important than being paid like a true unrestricted FA...With that said, Russell is a different guy, and none of us know if he's even the slightest bit concerned about being paid immediately or which team he plays with.

Your last paragraph is so right on.

We have no idea. I think we thought we knew Wilson based on his carefully crafted public persona he submits to the fans and media. With the choices regarding the contract potentially conflicting with that image, many fans are having a tough time knowing how to react.

Oh, yeah just so you know nobody but Brady, Rodgers and Manning make any endorsement money of note via NFL players when talking the big time money. Especially compared to the other major sports and/or celebrity types.

Not sure if this article supports or contradicts that statement or what is considered big time endorsement money. But it claims Brady made $7 million, Rodgers at $7.5, and Manning at $12. Brees and Eli are in there as well. And since Cam's contract has more effect on RW than any other right now, I thought it was appropriate to post. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12990 ... appeal-nfl. But you are correct, compared to Michael Jordan making approximately a billion so far in sources other than playing salary, these numbers fall far short.

 

[IndyHawk]

See that Super Bowl QB list posted earlier?Do you see a bad defense in there?Defense wins Championships!Yes the Seattle D blew a 10 point lead late but you have to recall all the injuries the D had prior and during the game.Do not fool yourself believing that didn't matter.

And "Don't Fool Yourself Believing" that it all the wins were with just the Defenses ALONE.
You'd try and have us believe that all wins across the board are because of Defenses only, I ain't buying.
If you look at that list objectively, you'll notice that there were some World class Quarterbacks, Receivers, Tight Ends & RB's amongst the bunch.

Sure, but if I'm a GM in the NFL, and I get to pick top ranked defense or huge chunk of my cap hit on a QB, I'm picking defense every time and its not even close.

Of course its nice to have both, but dominant defenses dominate in the NFL.

:13:

 

[hawknation2015]

Russell Wilson is the only person who knows if he has the leverage or if Seattle has the leverage.

If he wants to be paid 25+ million a year, there is a team willing to do so to obtain him without giving up players/picks. I guarantee it.

Here's the definition of leverage:
To use (something) to maximum advantage

Russell makes enough in endorsements to live like a king. He doesn't NEED his extra $20MM this year.

The only perceived "leverage" Seattle has in this situation is time and team (city), not money. If Wilson is not concerned with time or what team he plays for, he can surely cash in more elsewhere, and that is a fact. Rodgers is 100% correct that an open market will yield Wilson the biggest contract.

We will only find out in time who actually holds the leverage in this negotiation.

To guys like Sherm/ Chanc/Earl getting big payouts early and staying with their brothers is more important than being paid like a true unrestricted FA...With that said, Russell is a different guy, and none of us know if he's even the slightest bit concerned about being paid immediately or which team he plays with.

Your last paragraph is so right on.

We have no idea. I think we thought we knew Wilson based on his carefully crafted public persona he submits to the fans and media. With the choices regarding the contract potentially conflicting with that image, many fans are having a tough time knowing how to react.

Oh, yeah just so you know nobody but Brady, Rodgers and Manning make any endorsement money of note via NFL players when talking the big time money. Especially compared to the other major sports and/or celebrity types.

Not sure if this article supports or contradicts that statement or what is considered big time endorsement money. But it claims Brady made $7 million, Rodgers at $7.5, and Manning at $12. Brees and Eli are in there as well. And since Cam's contract has more effect on RW than any other right now, I thought it was appropriate to post. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12990 ... appeal-nfl. But you are correct, compared to Michael Jordan making approximately a billion so far in sources other than playing salary, these numbers fall far short.

Forbes says Brees makes $11 million per year on endorsements.

http://www.forbes.com/profile/drew-brees/

The top basketball players make a lot more endorsement money than football players, i.e. Lebron James's $44 million, Kevin Durants' $35 million, etc., but Wilson has such a well-crafted persona and has gotten his face out there enough, that I could see him racking up $20+ million in endorsements at some point if he continues to win. Before these negotiations heated up, he was tops in jersey sales, which indicates his popularity. Anyway, the NFL is far more popular than the NBA. I see no reason why a football player couldn't challenge for those basketball endorsement numbers.

 

[AVL]

I feel like Wilson can not do a team friendly deal at this time as it would seem like a giant concession to his last interception.

I think he is more than willing to bet on himself and I have no idea why so many are upset/ furious with him. I know he said he would happily play out his contract. Hate away at him, I'm sure that will help.

 

[hawknation2015]

I feel like Wilson can not do a team friendly deal at this time as it would seem like a giant concession to his last interception.

I think he is more than willing to bet on himself and I have no idea why so many are upset/ furious with him. I know he said he would happily play out his contract. Hate away at him, I'm sure that will help.

Hate . . . upset . . . furious.

Still knocking down straw men, I see.

 

[Hawkpower]

I feel like Wilson can not do a team friendly deal at this time as it would seem like a giant concession to his last interception.

I think he is more than willing to bet on himself and I have no idea why so many are upset/ furious with him. I know he said he would happily play out his contract. Hate away at him, I'm sure that will help.

Hate . . . upset . . . furious.

Still knocking down straw men, I see.

The strawmans have been out in full force lately.

I understand. Objectivity can be hard.

Many of our fellow fans are very protective of the guy that says "hike" for our favorite team.

 

[scutterhawk]

See that Super Bowl QB list posted earlier?Do you see a bad defense in there?Defense wins Championships!Yes the Seattle D blew a 10 point lead late but you have to recall all the injuries the D had prior and during the game.Do not fool yourself believing that didn't matter.

And "Don't Fool Yourself Believing" that it all the wins were with just the Defenses ALONE.
You'd try and have us believe that all wins across the board are because of Defenses only, I ain't buying.
If you look at that list objectively, you'll notice that there were some World class Quarterbacks, Receivers, Tight Ends & RB's amongst the bunch.

Sure, but if I'm a GM in the NFL, and I get to pick top ranked defense or huge chunk of my cap hit on a QB, I'm picking defense every time and its not even close.

Of course its nice to have both, but dominant defenses dominate in the NFL.

:13:

Okay, so you're contending that we even get to two Super Bowls and win one, WITHOUT Russell Wilson at the lead?
You're both dreaming.
You are not going to win your way to two Super Bowls with a top tier Defense, and an inept Quarterback.
Easy to speculate that you can just plug in any whimsical Quarterback (regardless if there's not even one available).
Does anybody truly believe that a "Pure Pocket Passer", and no true #1 targets could flourish behind an O-Line that's designed for the Run Game, while playing for peanuts even exist?
Russell Wilson is the absolute perfect fit for the Seahawks Offensive scheme...Does he miss seeing some wide open Receivers?, yep, but the same can be said of every single Quarterback that's ever played the game.

 

[scutterhawk]

I feel like Wilson can not do a team friendly deal at this time as it would seem like a giant concession to his last interception.

I think he is more than willing to bet on himself and I have no idea why so many are upset/ furious with him. I know he said he would happily play out his contract. Hate away at him, I'm sure that will help.

Hate . . . upset . . . furious.

Still knocking down straw men, I see.

The strawmans have been out in full force lately.

I understand. Objectivity can be hard.

Many of our fellow fans are very protective of the guy that says "hike" for our favorite team.

Not so much of being "Protective" in these discussions about Russell Wilson......Just not so damned quick to dismiss his importance to the Seahawks as you are.
If you want to downplay his value, go for it, but don't expect everyone else to buy into your illogical stance on the matter.

 

[rideaducati]

I feel like Wilson can not do a team friendly deal at this time as it would seem like a giant concession to his last interception.

I think he is more than willing to bet on himself and I have no idea why so many are upset/ furious with him. I know he said he would happily play out his contract. Hate away at him, I'm sure that will help.

Russell will "happily" play out his contract the same way you would "happily" forego a raise at work for a year. Neither of you really have a choice in the matter.

 

[Seahwkgal]

Okay, so you're contending that we even get to two Super Bowls and win one, WITHOUT Russell Wilson at the lead?
You're both dreaming.
You are not going to win your way to two Super Bowls with a top tier Defense, and an inept Quarterback.
Easy to speculate that you can just plug in any whimsical Quarterback (regardless if there's not even one available).
Does anybody truly believe that a "Pure Pocket Passer", and no true #1 targets could flourish behind an O-Line that's designed for the Run Game, while playing for peanuts even exist?
Russell Wilson is the absolute perfect fit for the Seahawks Offensive scheme...Does he miss seeing some wide open Receivers?, yep, but the same can be said of every single Quarterback that's ever played the game.

How did we do in 2011? Yep. No SB or playoffs. Top D, great running game, crap QB. So many here have forgotten, it wasn't that long ago either. :177692:

 

[hawknation2015]

Okay, so you're contending that we even get to two Super Bowls and win one, WITHOUT Russell Wilson at the lead?
You're both dreaming.
You are not going to win your way to two Super Bowls with a top tier Defense, and an inept Quarterback.
Easy to speculate that you can just plug in any whimsical Quarterback (regardless if there's not even one available).
Does anybody truly believe that a "Pure Pocket Passer", and no true #1 targets could flourish behind an O-Line that's designed for the Run Game, while playing for peanuts even exist?
Russell Wilson is the absolute perfect fit for the Seahawks Offensive scheme...Does he miss seeing some wide open Receivers?, yep, but the same can be said of every single Quarterback that's ever played the game.

How did we do in 2011? Yep. No SB or playoffs. Top D, great running game, crap QB. So many here have forgotten, it wasn't that long ago either. :177692:

Both defense and QB play (not to mention, running game) are important to winning a Super Bowl. The challenge now is to encourage Russell to sign an extension at the highest current rate, while allowing enough cap flexibility to maintain our dominant defense.

The 2011 defense did not begin to "click" until the 2nd half of the season. In the first half of the 2011 season, there were several games in which the defense allowed 30+ points. In fact, the defense allowed 23+ in six of those first eight games. Since the defense clicked in that halfway point of the 2011 season, the Seahawks have played a record 64-straight games without losing by double digits.

That 2011 team also had injuries at both QB (Jackson's pectoral tear) and RB (Lynch's shoulder).

 

[Bigbadhawk]

Okay, so you're contending that we even get to two Super Bowls and win one, WITHOUT Russell Wilson at the lead?
You're both dreaming.
You are not going to win your way to two Super Bowls with a top tier Defense, and an inept Quarterback.
Easy to speculate that you can just plug in any whimsical Quarterback (regardless if there's not even one available).
Does anybody truly believe that a "Pure Pocket Passer", and no true #1 targets could flourish behind an O-Line that's designed for the Run Game, while playing for peanuts even exist?
Russell Wilson is the absolute perfect fit for the Seahawks Offensive scheme...Does he miss seeing some wide open Receivers?, yep, but the same can be said of every single Quarterback that's ever played the game.

How did we do in 2011? Yep. No SB or playoffs. Top D, great running game, crap QB. So many here have forgotten, it wasn't that long ago either. :177692:

Ranked 21st in team rushing in 2011 with total of 4.0 yards per attempt average for a combined 1756 yards for the season. Our passing rank was just one lower at 22. Yep sounds like a legit great running game. :34853_doh:

 

[Tical21]

You cannot compare the 2011 team to the current team. 50 of the 53 players on the roster are improved from that team. Look at the rosters. Doesn't improving at 50 positions automatically net you a few extra wins?

With Brian Hoyer, or TJax, this now is at worst an 11 win team. The quarterback position by design has less to do with our success than any other franchise in the NFL right now. Russell's great, nobody is really arguing that. His importance, however, and the franchise's ability to perhaps find another ample replacement for him are very debatable.

 

[scutterhawk]

Okay, so you're contending that we even get to two Super Bowls and win one, WITHOUT Russell Wilson at the lead?
You're both dreaming.
You are not going to win your way to two Super Bowls with a top tier Defense, and an inept Quarterback.
Easy to speculate that you can just plug in any whimsical Quarterback (regardless if there's not even one available).
Does anybody truly believe that a "Pure Pocket Passer", and no true #1 targets could flourish behind an O-Line that's designed for the Run Game, while playing for peanuts even exist?
Russell Wilson is the absolute perfect fit for the Seahawks Offensive scheme...Does he miss seeing some wide open Receivers?, yep, but the same can be said of every single Quarterback that's ever played the game.

How did we do in 2011? Yep. No SB or playoffs. Top D, great running game, crap QB. So many here have forgotten, it wasn't that long ago either. :177692:

Ranked 21st in team rushing in 2011 with total of 4.0 yards per attempt average for a combined 1756 yards for the season. Our passing rank was just one lower at 22. Yep sounds like a legit great running game. :34853_doh:

It wasn't 'til Russell Wilson came on board as a Rookie to substantially bolster the Seahawks "Running Game", helping to move them up the ranks, and that's the whole point that Seahawkgal was making.
In the Off-Season of Year two, there was concern that our opponents would now have tape on RW, and be able to nullify his ability to tuck & run, and that didn't happen.....Year three, Russell Wilson adds nearly 900 Yards to the Running Game, Sidney Rice out, Golden Tate, gone and without having ANY true #1 Wide Receiver on board, we come to within 1 Yard of claiming the World Championship for the second Year in a row.
Look, if the Defense is constantly on the field because of insufficient QB play, sooner or later, they start to falter because they start wearing down, and the TOP slides to the opponents favor.
We need ALL the pieces clicking, and working together, IF we want to stay around the top of the heap, but, if it's your contentment to be an "Also Ran" then by all means, ditch RW, then go and find a cheap replacement.