R Wilson, Seahawks must find third-down solutions in 2017

ivotuk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2007
Messages
23,208
Reaction score
1,936
Location
North Pole, Alaska
Last season, the Seahawks struggled to extend drives, and the third-down issues factored significantly into the offensive inconsistencies. According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks finished 20th in third-down efficiency in 2016 after finishing first the previous year.

Russell Wilson was 13th in YPA and 15th in yards per dropback last season. Just 38.5 percent of his third-down pass attempts (17th) netted first downs. In 2015, that number was 50.4 percent (third).



http://www.espn.com/blog/seattle-seahaw ... ns-in-2017
 

Anthony!

New member
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
Messages
4,050
Reaction score
0
Location
Kent, wa
ivotuk":36dtysac said:
Last season, the Seahawks struggled to extend drives, and the third-down issues factored significantly into the offensive inconsistencies. According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks finished 20th in third-down efficiency in 2016 after finishing first the previous year.

Russell Wilson was 13th in YPA and 15th in yards per dropback last season. Just 38.5 percent of his third-down pass attempts (17th) netted first downs. In 2015, that number was 50.4 percent (third).



http://www.espn.com/blog/seattle-seahaw ... ns-in-2017


More proof the injuries were a huge factor
 

lobohawk

New member
Joined
Sep 25, 2012
Messages
952
Reaction score
0
Did the article note the avg distance in the 3rd down conversion attempts? (Yeah, I'm lazy). Seemed like I saw a lot more long 3rd downs this year. The failure rate is a bit meaningless, if it doesn't account for this.
 

sdog1981

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 16, 2009
Messages
3,367
Reaction score
240
Bevell offenses have always been awful on 3rd Down and Redzone. So at this point we only have two options.

1) Wilson sucks

2) Bevell sucks


I would trust Wilson with 31 other OC's then I would trust Bevell with 31 other QB's
 

sutz

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 1, 2007
Messages
30,052
Reaction score
6,353
Location
Kent, WA
lobohawk":lyl9vnd9 said:
Did the article note the avg distance in the 3rd down conversion attempts? (Yeah, I'm lazy). Seemed like I saw a lot more long 3rd downs this year. The failure rate is a bit meaningless, if it doesn't account for this.
This is a big contributor IMHO. All too often, 3rd Down efficiency is determined by what happens on 1st and 2d down, which goes back to the lack of a running game. If you can average 4-5 yds per attempt in the ground game, you get to those 3rd and 2-3 yards plays that are much more manageable. Facing 3rd and 7+ all the time is not sustainable.
 

Anthony!

New member
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
Messages
4,050
Reaction score
0
Location
Kent, wa
According to ESPN Wilson had 148 pass attempts on 3rd down and 92 were 3rd and 6 or longer or 62% of his attempts which is bad. We actually have not always been bad on 3rd down in the Russel Wilson age, in fact just last year we were top 5 in conversion % on 3rd down when passing per footballoutsiders.com. The difference this year to last, well injuries to Wilson and oline and little to no run game
 

theincrediblesok

New member
Joined
Jun 23, 2014
Messages
1,550
Reaction score
0
The season went like this. 1st and 10, run up the middle, 3 yards gained. 2nd and 7th, short middle pass to Kearse dropped pass. 3rd and 7th, offensive holding negated a 10 yard pass play. 3rd and 17th deep pass to Graham, overthrow.
 

UK_Seahawk

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 24, 2013
Messages
4,469
Reaction score
513
I think the injuries to Rawls, Prosise and Wilson coupled with the the O Line issues meant we became predictable. A solid run game opens up play action and a healthy Wilson can obviously run as well.

I feel if we can stay healthy we can make big strides.

INB4 Captain Obvious quips.
 

Blitzhawk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 22, 2010
Messages
2,486
Reaction score
48
theincrediblesok":2trjok20 said:
The season went like this. 1st and 10, run up the middle, 3 yards gained. 2nd and 7th, short middle pass to Kearse dropped pass. 3rd and 7th, offensive holding negated a 10 yard pass play. 3rd and 17th deep pass to Graham, overthrow.

My only correction here would be your 3rd and 17 play: it would be a draw or screen pass just like every 3rd and 9+ play. The deep pass would be on 3rd and 2 if/when we get there.
 

Siouxhawk

New member
Joined
Feb 5, 2015
Messages
3,776
Reaction score
0
oregonhawkfan":1jlz2w5b said:
theincrediblesok":1jlz2w5b said:
The season went like this. 1st and 10, run up the middle, 3 yards gained. 2nd and 7th, short middle pass to Kearse dropped pass. 3rd and 7th, offensive holding negated a 10 yard pass play. 3rd and 17th deep pass to Graham, overthrow.

My only correction here would be your 3rd and 17 play: it would be a draw or screen pass just like every 3rd and 9+ play. The deep pass would be on 3rd and 2 if/when we get there.
You must've been watching a CFL game. Or the Ducks.
 

Largent80

New member
Joined
Mar 1, 2007
Messages
36,653
Reaction score
5
Location
The Tex-ASS
A better way to put it is that the Hawks need to make 1st down count so they can put themselves in 3rd and short territory.

But saying that is No Duh just as the original title.
 

FlyingGreg

Active member
Joined
Mar 5, 2007
Messages
9,515
Reaction score
0
Location
Colorado Springs, Colorado
sdog1981":3uyjsmfk said:
Bevell offenses have always been awful on 3rd Down and Redzone. So at this point we only have two options.

1) Wilson sucks

2) Bevell sucks


I would trust Wilson with 31 other OC's then I would trust Bevell with 31 other QB's

No, not "always". Bevell's Vikings offense was good on 3rd downs.

The difference? A competent NFL line. And a HOF QB helped.

Tired of the line holding this team back. It's on you to fix it, Stubborn Pete.

By the way, its not all on Bevell. Wilson doesn't get a pass...he missed way too many throws last season. He needs to bounce back.
 

sdog1981

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 16, 2009
Messages
3,367
Reaction score
240
FlyingGreg":avexg3t1 said:
sdog1981":avexg3t1 said:
Bevell offenses have always been awful on 3rd Down and Redzone. So at this point we only have two options.

1) Wilson sucks

2) Bevell sucks


I would trust Wilson with 31 other OC's then I would trust Bevell with 31 other QB's

No, not "always". Bevell's Vikings offense was good on 3rd downs.

The difference? A competent NFL line. And a HOF QB helped.

Tired of the line holding this team back. It's on you to fix it, Stubborn Pete.

By the way, its not all on Bevell. Wilson doesn't get a pass...he missed way too many throws last season. He needs to bounce back.

You are incorccet. Here is the 3rd conversion rates from 2006 onward.

It goes like this:

28th,26th,24th,5th,24th,24th,12,17th(Suprebowl champs),11th,4th,16th

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team ... /year/2006
 

Attyla the Hawk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 11, 2013
Messages
2,559
Reaction score
47
lobohawk":3idkkke0 said:
Did the article note the avg distance in the 3rd down conversion attempts? (Yeah, I'm lazy). Seemed like I saw a lot more long 3rd downs this year. The failure rate is a bit meaningless, if it doesn't account for this.

Very astute. This is where basic rankings don't tell much of the story. This particular analysis is best done using advanced statistics. Situational components are critical in this regard.
 

theincrediblesok

New member
Joined
Jun 23, 2014
Messages
1,550
Reaction score
0
We all know Wilson misses some passes but all QB's do.

64.7% is his 2nd highest completion percentage with 4219 total yards in 2016 being his highest yards, without looking at TD/INT ratios many people will take a QB with those stats.

The problem this year was getting TD's, it seemed like we were pushing to run deep plays all the time. Also the misses on Wilson part doesn't help as well but how much did the injury really affected him in those passes. Unexplained amount of overthrows that he usually fixes at the halfway mark.

The other thing I notice was that there were many times our WRs had a huge play where they would almost reach the goal line but stopped right at the 5 yard line, couldn't break that one extra tackle. This forced us in a condense space where it was almost impossible for this team to score in the redzone because we had no run game to help open any passes.

Why did we let Christine Michaels go halfway when he was our leading RB, we could of had him and Rawls and eventually our run game would of been better once Rawls settled in. We could of had the dynamic duo, if CJ Prosise was healthy could you imagine the three of them terrorizing defenses. The FO made a bad decision on that part I think of letting Michaels go too early.
 

Optimus25

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 27, 2014
Messages
2,396
Reaction score
543
theincrediblesok":50gyexfa said:
We all know Wilson misses some passes but all QB's do.

64.7% is his 2nd highest completion percentage with 4219 total yards in 2016 being his highest yards, without looking at TD/INT ratios many people will take a QB with those stats.

The problem this year was getting TD's, it seemed like we were pushing to run deep plays all the time. Also the misses on Wilson part doesn't help as well but how much did the injury really affected him in those passes. Unexplained amount of overthrows that he usually fixes at the halfway mark.

The other thing I notice was that there were many times our WRs had a huge play where they would almost reach the goal line but stopped right at the 5 yard line, couldn't break that one extra tackle. This forced us in a condense space where it was almost impossible for this team to score in the redzone because we had no run game to help open any passes.

Why did we let Christine Michaels go halfway when he was our leading RB, we could of had him and Rawls and eventually our run game would of been better once Rawls settled in. We could of had the dynamic duo, if CJ Prosise was healthy could you imagine the three of them terrorizing defenses. The FO made a bad decision on that part I think of letting Michaels go too early.

The reason this happened is that Prosise clearly established himself as the feature back of the future, only to suffer a season ending injury the next game. While the gamble that he would stay healthy was certainly risky and the wrong move in hindsight, I think there is something we don't see at play as well regarding CM. I think with Pete and JS it's all about "buy-in", the system, our house mentality. Percy definitely didn't fit the mold, and after a full year of trying to reset his mindset, they had no problem cutting him mid-season to sever the ties. I think the only reason CM had a longer leash whatsoever was that he was "born" here. But the numerous times you would see CM on camera when his number wasn't called near the goal line clearly displayed his selfish, whiny nature and lack of "buy-in" for the team as a whole.

CJ HAS to stay healthy in order for us to negate the underwhelming OL. But that's exactly what a RB/WR hybrid does- he negates pass rush by forcing you to account for a sure handed, super elusive player out of the backfield. I know in the past we've said this many a offseason, but seriously if this offensive line can shore up just by incremental levels, and Russ stays healthy, imagine Russ running wild again, CJ, Paul Rich2.0, Jimmy, Doug, no-E and co with Rawls to do some dirty work.

To answer a question you posed though, I believe we were then and are now about to be "all in" on CJ, and as soon as he had his breakout game Pete had no intention of the 3 of them terrorizing anyone and he made the decision on CM and wasn't looking back.

And I agree with Pete actually.
 

Siouxhawk

New member
Joined
Feb 5, 2015
Messages
3,776
Reaction score
0
Attyla the Hawk":10gsucx6 said:
lobohawk":10gsucx6 said:
Did the article note the avg distance in the 3rd down conversion attempts? (Yeah, I'm lazy). Seemed like I saw a lot more long 3rd downs this year. The failure rate is a bit meaningless, if it doesn't account for this.

Very astute. This is where basic rankings don't tell much of the story. This particular analysis is best done using advanced statistics. Situational components are critical in this regard.
Yes, for example from 2012-2015 I'd guess our third-down conversation rate in the second half would far exceed the first half. That's just what our philosophy was. Wear teams down with the run game and then pull away.
 

Hyak

Active member
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
Messages
789
Reaction score
46
Location
Covington, WA
Pro Football Reference has good split data as it shows 1st down % by split whereas ESPN and NFL.com do not.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... lits/2016/

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... lits/2015/

Bottom line is that the 3rd down numbers were down in every split in 2016. 3rd and 10 + is understandable but the 3rd and medium is where they really regressed.

Wilson's health and the effect on his mechanics/accuracy were a factor as was the poor running game and OL play. Not one thing for sure.
 

Rahawk

New member
Joined
Feb 14, 2017
Messages
6
Reaction score
0
It's no conincidence as soon as Prosise got in the game the offense was doing so much better, and then he got hurt and the offense seemed to sputter a bit more.
 
Top