Playoff seeding

[DJrmb]

I know that a lot of fans are really pushing for that top wild card spot because of the home games. However, the Mariners best chances for a deep playoff run may be to get that last WC spot instead. No home games but the matchups are much better right now (which could change as we approach the end of the season).

The top wild card team will have home games, yes, but then (if they win the series) will have to go play @Houston. Not to mention whoever you play in the wild card round is likely better than Cleveland already...

The last wild card team will likely play Cleveland, then go to NY to play the struggling Yankees. I'd much rather take my chances with that path and give Suarez time to get healthy before going up against a team you'll likely have to score a lot of runs to keep up with.




What say you? Are home games that important? Should they be going after the #1 spot no matter what for competitives sake? Or would you be ok with them aiming for that 3rd spot even (possibly resting guys even)?

 

[Hawk-Lock]

It's been discussed quite a bit in the wild card watch thread. But yes, if we aren't going to get the top spot, I would like the last spot. As a fan, I want a home playoff series here. But the easiest path is definitely going to Cleveland, and then playing the Yankees.

I'm just happy we are going to make the playoffs.

 

[Chapow]

Until they have clinched a playoff spot, they need to take it one day at a time, one game at a time, and be focused on how they are going to win that game, that day. Right now they don't have the luxury of messing around and giving games away so they can target a perceived easier path in the playoffs.

Don't look now, but our 5 best hitters are all dealing with injuries.

Eugenio Suarez has been our best run producer and he is on the 10 day IL with a fracture in a finger. Who knows how long until he'll be able to play again, and who knows if that injury is still going to be affecting him when/if he gets back. Losing your best run producer is a HUGE blow for an already offensively challenged team.

Julio has missed the past few games with some sort of a back issue. I'm sure he'll be back soon, maybe even today, but that back issue probably doesn't just go away just because he's feeling good enough to play. It's something he's going to have to continue to deal with unless he gets a significant amount of time off.

Mitch Haniger. Also dealing with a back issue that he is trying to play through after recently missing time because of it.

Ty France is still dealing with that wrist injury that caused him to miss some time a little while back. Want to know why Ty doesn't look like the same hitter from the first 4 months of the season? That's why. It's his wrist. He's playing through it right now, but it is clearly still affecting him.

And finally, Cal Raleigh is dealing with a "jammed thumbed" that caused him to miss most of the Angels series.

On top of all that, our defense that has been best in MLB for most of the season has taken a bit of a step back lately and we're starting to see some errors and mistakes that we weren't seeing earlier in the season.

I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer here, and I still believe this team can and will make the playoffs. I'm just pointing out that at the moment we're in a pretty tough spot in regards to injuries, and we probably don't really have the luxury of trying to target a specific WC spot. At this point, with all this going on with the team, they just need to take it day by day, win as many games down the stretch as possible, and let the rest sort itself out.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Start the chant, 4 or 6, 4 or 6, 4 or 6.

And I doubt the team is looking forward at all. The fans talking playoffs has no impact on how the team plays. They're going to get in. Just my opinion. 16 left and a 5 game lead. Magic number at 11. I LOVE our chances. Why? Pitching. I see that team as top 3 in baseball, pitching wise.

 

[sutz]

Chap's right. The team can't worry about any of that. They just need to win as many games as they can, day after day.

 

[Ruminator]

Oh weird, a redundant thread!

 

[Hawk-Lock]

Until they have clinched a playoff spot, they need to take it one day at a time, one game at a time, and be focused on how they are going to win that game, that day. Right now they don't have the luxury of messing around and giving games away so they can target a perceived easier path in the playoffs.

Don't look now, but our 5 best hitters are all dealing with injuries.

Eugenio Suarez has been our best run producer and he is on the 10 day IL with a fracture in a finger. Who knows how long until he'll be able to play again, and who knows if that injury is still going to be affecting him when/if he gets back. Losing your best run producer is a HUGE blow for an already offensively challenged team.

Julio has missed the past few games with some sort of a back issue. I'm sure he'll be back soon, maybe even today, but that back issue probably doesn't just go away just because he's feeling good enough to play. It's something he's going to have to continue to deal with unless he gets a significant amount of time off.

Mitch Haniger. Also dealing with a back issue that he is trying to play through after recently missing time because of it.

Ty France is still dealing with that wrist injury that caused him to miss some time a little while back. Want to know why Ty doesn't look like the same hitter from the first 4 months of the season? That's why. It's his wrist. He's playing through it right now, but it is clearly still affecting him.

And finally, Cal Raleigh is dealing with a "jammed thumbed" that caused him to miss most of the Angels series.

On top of all that, our defense that has been best in MLB for most of the season has taken a bit of a step back lately and we're starting to see some errors and mistakes that we weren't seeing earlier in the season.

I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer here, and I still believe this team can and will make the playoffs. I'm just pointing out that at the moment we're in a pretty tough spot in regards to injuries, and we probably don't really have the luxury of trying to target a specific WC spot. At this point, with all this going on with the team, they just need to take it day by day, win as many games down the stretch as possible, and let the rest sort itself out.

We are going to make the playoffs. If we don’t it will be one of the most historic drop offs in MLB history. There is a reason why we have a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

But I agree, the team should not worry about seeding, at least not this early. Now if it is the last game or two of the season, and we can rest a few guys and basically punt away the game, then that’s fine. But way too early to strategically look at seeding.

 

[FalconsFanNW]

It's been discussed quite a bit in the wild card watch thread. But yes, if we aren't going to get the top spot, I would like the last spot. As a fan, I want a home playoff series here. But the easiest path is definitely going to Cleveland, and then playing the Yankees.

I'm just happy we are going to make the playoffs.

As a fan who roots for the Mariners when they aren't playing the Braves... I'm happy for them to finally end the playoff drought.

Hoping for a Seattle vs Atlanta World Series... I was there for all 3 games last week and the 3rd game was so sick!

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Well, there is no proof that the team is doing anything other than taking it one game at a time. They are focused. Looking at seeding etc. is for the fans. There's no way that team is looking anywhere past winning the game today.

 

[DJrmb]

Until they have clinched a playoff spot, they need to take it one day at a time, one game at a time, and be focused on how they are going to win that game, that day. Right now they don't have the luxury of messing around and giving games away so they can target a perceived easier path in the playoffs.

Don't look now, but our 5 best hitters are all dealing with injuries.

Eugenio Suarez has been our best run producer and he is on the 10 day IL with a fracture in a finger. Who knows how long until he'll be able to play again, and who knows if that injury is still going to be affecting him when/if he gets back. Losing your best run producer is a HUGE blow for an already offensively challenged team.

Julio has missed the past few games with some sort of a back issue. I'm sure he'll be back soon, maybe even today, but that back issue probably doesn't just go away just because he's feeling good enough to play. It's something he's going to have to continue to deal with unless he gets a significant amount of time off.

Mitch Haniger. Also dealing with a back issue that he is trying to play through after recently missing time because of it.

Ty France is still dealing with that wrist injury that caused him to miss some time a little while back. Want to know why Ty doesn't look like the same hitter from the first 4 months of the season? That's why. It's his wrist. He's playing through it right now, but it is clearly still affecting him.

And finally, Cal Raleigh is dealing with a "jammed thumbed" that caused him to miss most of the Angels series.

On top of all that, our defense that has been best in MLB for most of the season has taken a bit of a step back lately and we're starting to see some errors and mistakes that we weren't seeing earlier in the season.

I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer here, and I still believe this team can and will make the playoffs. I'm just pointing out that at the moment we're in a pretty tough spot in regards to injuries, and we probably don't really have the luxury of trying to target a specific WC spot. At this point, with all this going on with the team, they just need to take it day by day, win as many games down the stretch as possible, and let the rest sort itself out.

What you bring up here is a big reason why I started thinking on this and the different ways to approach it. The recent injuries have been brutal. Most likely the approach is going to be along the lines of what you outlined. Not thinking about the spot and just trying to win as much as possible. That's the most risk-averse approach, and most likely way to guarantee the playoff drought ends. But at some point that risk vs reward should flip, and maybe as soon as this weekend.

What if you could trade in a little bit of that risk avoidance and swing for a bigger return? By playing guys through injury and having them grind through the end of the season, what if you're actually affecting how well the team can do in the playoffs? Is it still worth it to maintain course because for this team, just making the playoffs is enough? Or if you knew you could sit some combination of Haniger, Raleigh, Julio, or France early to increase your odds of going deeper into the playoffs (while taking on a little extra risk) would you consider it?

I agree with everyone that it's probably too early to pull the trigger on something like that now with the current "magic number" at 11 of 32... but if next week that number is at 3-4 out of 20 and you can give a guy or two almost 2 weeks off? I'd have to consider it. I'm hoping they get that opportunity and won't mind sitting guys and going for "just getting in", rather than pushing guys to play hurt to really go after that #1 spot for the home games.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Magic number is 11. Hoping to get it to 10 tonight with a W. Good news is that Julio is in the lineup tonight. Huge
TONIGHT'S LINEUP:

JULIO
FRANCE
HANIGER
SANTANA
CRAWFORD
MOORE
TORO
CASALI
HAGGERTY

 

[Chapow]

What you bring up here is a big reason why I started thinking on this and the different ways to approach it. The recent injuries have been brutal. Most likely the approach is going to be along the lines of what you outlined. Not thinking about the spot and just trying to win as much as possible. That's the most risk-averse approach, and most likely way to guarantee the playoff drought ends. But at some point that risk vs reward should flip, and maybe as soon as this weekend.

What if you could trade in a little bit of that risk avoidance and swing for a bigger return? By playing guys through injury and having them grind through the end of the season, what if you're actually affecting how well the team can do in the playoffs? Is it still worth it to maintain course because for this team, just making the playoffs is enough? Or if you knew you could sit some combination of Haniger, Raleigh, Julio, or France early to increase your odds of going deeper into the playoffs (while taking on a little extra risk) would you consider it?

I agree with everyone that it's probably too early to pull the trigger on something like that now with the current "magic number" at 11 of 32... but if next week that number is at 3-4 out of 20 and you can give a guy or two almost 2 weeks off? I'd have to consider it. I'm hoping they get that opportunity and won't mind sitting guys and going for "just getting in", rather than pushing guys to play hurt to really go after that #1 spot for the home games.

In my opinion, they should play the guys that give them the best chance to win until they clinch a playoff spot. After that, they should do whatever they fell they need to do to be as successful as possible in the playoffs.

We are going to have to play a good team in the playoffs no matter what. Everyone seems to be assuming that Cleveland would be the easier path, but would they really? They look like a pretty good team to me. Cleveland's record is only a few games worse than the Rays or Blue Jays. That's pretty insignificant over the course of a 162 game season. What if I told you that in the last 10 games Cleveland is 8-2, Toronto is 6-4, and Tampa Bay is 4-6? Which team would you rather have to play against in the playoffs? Because right now, it kinda looks like Cleveland might be playing better than Toronto or Tampa.

Also, are we completely sure they aren't already sitting guys? Julio has had the past 3 games off. Are we sure he wouldn't have been able to play if it was a must win? Cal didn't play Saturday, then he played Sunday, then he didn't play again yesterday and isn't in the starting lineup tonight. Are we sure he couldn't have played yesterday if they really needed him? Are we sure he wouldn't be in there tonight if it was a must win?

 

[Threedee]

Right now I'm just waiting for LA to get three more losses so they can't get to 116. Friggin' D-Bags blew a commanding lead against them today, which sucks. Now they're in game two of a double-header.

 

[Sports Hernia]

Sounds like Julio is headed to the 10 day IL. Needs a couple bats to get hot and the starting pitching needs to get rolling again.

 

[Crizilla]

The world series logo is almost as bad as the M's line up without Julio and Geno

 

[sutz]

Does anybody else think that the 'Stros are purposely tanking to get the O's back in the standings?

 

[Sports Hernia]

Does anybody else think that the 'Stros are purposely tanking to get the O's back in the standings?

I wouldn’t put anything by those cheating bastards.

 

[Crizilla]

They don't want Ms in the playoffs anything can happen against a division opponent

 

[Sports Hernia]

I don’t think the asterisks fear the Mariners, they practically own them when they play. I think the asteriks like being dicks though.

 

[Hawk-Lock]

Astros aren’t throwing games. I highly doubt they have any kind of angst against a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 21 years. But yes, it’s very annoying they aren’t beating Baltimore.