Penix

ElvisInBlue

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Fair point..I would add though that all the defense would have to constantly remember that the QB tendencies will be flipped.

Having Olines operate oppositely has been done before with lefty QBs. it can be done again.
Sure, it’s just a factor to be weighed.
If we are talking college? In Penix's case, he was injured twice, which is why he was in college so long. Plus NIL money. He was able to learn two different offensive schemes, and also has a lot of fundamentals down pretty well for a college player. If it took him 6 years just to be a "good" QB with raw potential and not elite like he was, then yes the 6 years might indicate that he is slow to develop.
I understand why he stayed at the college level. Just saying a 24yr old is different beast in terms of experience, physical development, and hopefully maturity. He should be performing at a higher level.

Wasn’t Indiana a similar scheme? I believe he became less of a scrambler at UW, but that could be a concern as well if due to necessity vs maturity.
 

TwistedHusky

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Penix has to drop for 2 reasons:
1. The injuries
2. his performance in the NC game.

I'm a die hard Husky. Love Penix. Might be one of the greatest Huskies to ever attend UW (if he won that game, he would have been).

But man, he missed throws all over the place in the biggest game. He was either injured (Possible he was hiding it to avoid more concerns about his durability) or the moment was too big for him.
As bad as the Alabama QB was all year, he actually looked better than Penix against Michigan. That should be all you need to know.

Penix is likely going in the 2nd round because of that, given the concern that he might be closer to a Byron Leftwich than a star QB (Leftwich was pretty good in his prime though, and he was a HELL of a leader...if he turns into that it likely isn't a terrible thing).
I'd still love to see the Hawks pick him up. He would do well here. Maybe incredibly well.
But not with a 1st round pick.
 

SoulfishHawk

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I think 2nd is the spot too. I just don't think judging a guy on one game is a fair assessment. Much of the team had an off game. And Michigan was clearly the better team THAT NIGHT. Two full years w/out an injury matters. But injury concerns will always follow him.
 
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fenderbender123

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The best QBs are of average intelligence, so that's another positive.
 

chris98251

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Pat Haden was a Rhodes Scholar, Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard, give me a quick processor and football intelligence over the tests they use generically.
 

GemCity

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The injuries are s major, major concern imo.

I do love him as a prospect. If he has a healthy career, I can see him being a really good player.
 

Lagartixa

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Pat Haden was a Rhodes Scholar, Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard, give me a quick processor and football intelligence over the tests they use generically.

This comment got me thinking about Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick had an NFL career of 17 seasons. The average NFL QB's career is less than four and a half years. Fitzpatrick was a backup for a bunch of those 17 years, and had just one six-attempt appearance in his final season, but as recently as 2018, he got enough playing time in half a season to make the minimum-attempts cutoffs for rate stats and be a top-ten starter (by rates of production; obviously not by cumulative counting stats) in the NFL at age 36. Barely, I'd say, but I'd put him about ninth or tenth in per-snap productivity among starters that season.

If Ryan Fitzpatrick's career is the over-under for any college prospect, no matter how good that prospect looks to scouts, I'm taking the under.

That doesn't mean I think Fitzpatrick is a candidate for the Hall of Fame, or even the "Hall of the Very Good for a While." Fitzpatrick was just good enough to stick around for 16+ years, and his long career included a few decent seasons (it also included some outright stinkers, like 2009 and 2016). It just means that successful college quarterbacks like Penix are very frequently unsuccessful in the NFL. So frequently, in fact, that I'll always take the "under" on any college prospect if the over-under is Ryan Fitzpatrick's career.

Think of Andrew Luck, about whom the scouts were basically unanimous. In college he looked to all the professional talent evaluators like a generational prospect, with all the characteristics that portend NFL success. His two best NFL seasons, 2016 and 2018 (sandwiching the full season he missed because of a shoulder injury), put him just outside the top ten, in that 11-16 range. Sure, that's top 50% in the NFL, which is nothing to sneeze at, but still not all that much for a player who was seen as a potential Peyton Manning-like, sport-changing prospect and who was in his age-27 and age-29 seasons. Manning at ages 27 and 29 was, respectively, winning league MVP and being robbed of what should have been his third straight league-MVP award by a running back I loved. I loved what Alexander did for the Seahawks, but even in 2005 it was nearly impossible for a running back to produce as much on-the-field value as a quarterback, especiallly a quarterback as great as Manning in his prime. Alexander had a tremendous 5.1 yards per rushing attempt over an unhealthily large 370 rushing attempts that season (and "the curse of 370" plus normal post-age-27 athletic decline bit him hard, as he never sniffed 4 yards per attempt again). Meanwhile, Manning produced nearly twice as many adjusted net yards per attempt (9.78) over 453 passing attempts. Much more per-snap value over significantly more (22.4% more) snaps.

When we're talking about Penix, a guy who just played his sixth season in college at age 23 against guys significantly further back on the upward-sloping part of the expected-athletic-performance curve (peak is usually around age 25-28), and who has had four major injuries, including two tears of the same ACL, I'm definitely taking the under if the over-under for his career is Ryan Fitzpatrick's career.
 

keasley45

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Can anyone who is less myopic than me when it comes to college football explain why Penix isn’t even sniffing the top 5 QBs on anyone’s draft boards?

I watched every Huskies game last season and while he has his faults like any QB, he is a marvel to watch and one hell of a hose for a left arm.

I can’t believe he is down so low on most people’s boards. I humbly ask, what am I missing?


This was posted orginally in the 'Geno is nothing more than a bridge' thread. I think its an honest, unbiased review (if pretty critical) of the things that were shown in the NC game. Common thread - both this game and the NC game were against stout defensive play.

The summary is that he's shown that against higher quality defensive play, he struggles with read progressions, he doesnt consistently throw from a solid platform, If his first read isnt there (and often there were options available), he'll simply throw it away.

The troubling fact- The best defenses he played in college are what he'll see week in and week out in the pros.

For me personally, I've seen enough 'questionable' play from him in situations that would indicate the potential for really good future potential, to not be at all miffed if he doesnt end up a Hawk. I understand he was great in college. I just feel like he will struggle in the pros. And i will stand on that assessment, either way he turns out.
 

SantaClaraHawk

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This was posted orginally in the 'Geno is nothing more than a bridge' thread. I think its an honest, unbiased review (if pretty critical) of the things that were shown in the NC game. Common thread - both this game and the NC game were against stout defensive play.

The summary is that he's shown that against higher quality defensive play, he struggles with read progressions, he doesnt consistently throw from a solid platform, If his first read isnt there (and often there were options available), he'll simply throw it away.

The troubling fact- The best defenses he played in college are what he'll see week in and week out in the pros.

For me personally, I've seen enough 'questionable' play from him in situations that would indicate the potential for really good future potential, to not be at all miffed if he doesnt end up a Hawk. I understand he was great in college. I just feel like he will struggle in the pros. And i will stand on that assessment, either way he turns out.


Question for you. Let’s say at 16 we have penix, nix and McCarthy available. Which of these three do you want?
 

keasley45

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Question for you. Let’s say at 16 we have penix, nix and McCarthy available. Which of these three do you want?
Nix.

I think he's more athletic and did pretty well with less talent around him than did Penix. In the pros, when the pressure comes (and against rookies, it come often) he'll be able to use his legs to extend plays and make things happen. On the flip, Penix's often cited weakness is his lack luster play on the move and the fact that he's shown a tendency to get flustered with pressure in his face.

Although Nix also worked pretty much from a single read framework, I read that the coaches gave him free reign to audible at the line, which points to him being xs and os smart.

I also don't think Mike is going to necessarily fawn over a qb because he can throw the lights out. I think he's going to want a guy who can do spectacular things on occassion, but overall, manage the game at a high level, make smart plays, and possess the ball.

JJ? No idea. He could blossom at the next level or never amount to much more tham a mid-tier guy.

But personally, I'd rather not go QB at 16 and roll the dice in the later rounds.
 

fenderbender123

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The ASU game was played in rainy/windy weather, and there were rumors that Penix and other starters had the flu.

Oregon had a very good defense last year, and would have finished even statistically better had they not had to play Washington. Penix played great in both games.

Texas also had a very good defense last year, and same story as Oregon. Penix was on fire.

Michigan, IMO had the best CFB defense of all time. Washington was limited due to injuries. Dropped passes made things worse.
 

WarHawks

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Penix has to drop for 2 reasons:
1. The injuries
2. his performance in the NC game.

I'm a die hard Husky. Love Penix. Might be one of the greatest Huskies to ever attend UW (if he won that game, he would have been).

But man, he missed throws all over the place in the biggest game. He was either injured (Possible he was hiding it to avoid more concerns about his durability) or the moment was too big for him.
As bad as the Alabama QB was all year, he actually looked better than Penix against Michigan. That should be all you need to know.

Penix is likely going in the 2nd round because of that, given the concern that he might be closer to a Byron Leftwich than a star QB (Leftwich was pretty good in his prime though, and he was a HELL of a leader...if he turns into that it likely isn't a terrible thing).
I'd still love to see the Hawks pick him up. He would do well here. Maybe incredibly well.
But not with a 1st round pick.
Trade down to later 1st and pick him there?
 

fenderbender123

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Just watched the video of all throws against Michigan. Considering the how well Michigan's defense did, I didn't see a QB that played poorly. He did throw high and overthrew a couple of times which could have changed the outcome of the game, but that was about it. Not a great game, but not terrible.
 
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