byau
Active member
For the stats and numbers guys and for anyone that likes this type of discussion, here are the NFL Combined Power Rankings this week.
How The Seahawks Did This Week
"When a guy makes a play, we all make a play!" - Earl Thomas
The Seahawks skip right on up to the "elite" status and the rankings analysts now can easily get a clear picture of #1 through #4 as the Packers, Patriots, Broncos, and Seahawks separate themselves.
Interestingly, the Packers, Patriots, and Seahawks all suffered some downticks as I believe all three teams at one time by at least one ranking hit around #15. Denver is the only one that I think has consistently been in #1, #2, or #3 all year.
Also interestingly, out of these elite teams, it is the Broncos that seem to be the one with the least amount of momentum.
That being said, if all year is taken into consideration, the Seahawks being at that #4 spot is alright with me. But with their momentum the last three weeks, they could make a case for skipping up to #2. And in fact while many sports shows are eschewing the greatness of Aaron Rodgers, it is interesting that at the same time they think the Seahawks might still be able to beat them if and when they meet in the playoffs at Lambeau.
Might almost make you forget they are still behind the Cardinals in the division. (just a bit of bringing us down to earth and staying hungry)
NFL Combined Rankings Summary
Take the scores of 7 rankings and combine them. I use a system called "relative placement" which is advantageous in this type of subjective judging. I have used it many times in the past as a head judge of dance competitions which are pretty much all purely subjective judging.
Here are the source NFL power rankings
NFL.com
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... n-top-five
1. Packers
2. Patriots
3. Broncos
4. Seahawks
5. Colts
4. Seahawks (+2). Some 24-14 games are actually close deals, but the Seahawks' win in Philadelphia was not. Although it was interesting listening to Eagles fans boo when Seattle cornerback Tharold Simon's injury stopped the game in the fourth quarter, thereby slowing Philly's fast-paced offense. You see, they really wanted to see Mark Sanchez hurry up and throw another 3-yard pass. ...
SBNation
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/12/9/7 ... s-seahawks
1. Packers
2. Patriots
3. Seahawks
4. Broncos
5. Eagles
3. Seahawks (+2).The Broncos, Packers, Patriots and Seahawks are separating themselves from the rest of the NFL. But one or more of the teams jumbled in the middle of this week's rankings are capable of a surprise or two. The Seahawks' defense is back. Pete Carroll's crew continues to stymie opposing quarterbacks, holding the explosive Eagles to just 139 yards of offense on their way to a convincing road win. Teams are scoring an average of 6.7 points per game against the Seahawks over the last three games, and Seattle's offense is starting to execute at just the right time. The defending champs have their swagger back, are playing loose and confident, and once again look like the team that dismantled Peyton Manning's Broncos in the Super Bowl last February.
ESPN
http://espn.go.com/nfl/powerrankings/_/ ... 14/week/15
1. Packers
2. Patriots
3. Broncos
4. Seahawks
5. Cardinals
4. Seahawks (+1). The NFC's on notice -- Seattle's defense is officially back. For the third straight game, the Seahawks held their opponent to season lows in points and yards.
CBS Sports
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pat ... l-32-teams
1. Packers
2. Patriots
3. Seahawks
4. Broncos
5. Cardinals
3. Seahawks (+2). The one team that could be up to the challenge of stopping Rodgers and Co. is the Seahawks. Seattle, which moves up this week from No. 5 to third in the rankings, is coming together at the right time. The Seahawks defense shut down Mark Sanchez and the up-tempo Eagles offense. The Seahawks defense is back to championship form and Russell Wilson is playing well enough to beat any team in the NFL. They are set up to win the division if they can beat the Cardinals in two weeks.
FOX Sports
http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/power-rank ... =15&view=1
1. Packers
2. Patriots
3. Broncos
4. Seahawks
5. Lions
4. Seahawks (+1) The defense is flying to the ball on underneath patterns and doing the best job in the NFL of limiting yards after the catch. There are still question marks on the offensive line in pass protection, but Russell Wilson’s ability to extend plays with his feet and take designed runs for big gains has been clutch.
Yahoo Sports
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutd ... 22279.html
1. Patriots
2. Packers
3. Seahawks
4. Broncos
5. Colts
3. Seahawks (+2)
The article's entire "above-the-fold" section is about the Seahawks. Enjoy:
Maybe the mark of a champion is knowing when to peak.
The 2014 Seattle Seahawks didn't look like the 2013 Seahawks for much of the season. But, now that we've hit the last quarter of the regular season, they look like a reasonable facsimile.
The last three weeks, the Seahawks have played very well. The defense, finally close to full strength, gave up three points to the Cardinals and three points to the 49ers, and even though it gave up 14 to the Eagles on Sunday, that might have been its most impressive game in the stretch. The Eagles couldn't move the ball. They had 139 yards. The Seahawks are dominant in pass defense lately. On offense, Marshawn Lynch can grind out first downs and Russell Wilson can make a few plays avoiding the rush and finding receivers downfield. The Seahawks control the tempo of the game on the offensive side and punish teams on defense.
Sound familiar?
The Seahawks aren't that far from earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC either, and we know how important that is for them (and how important it would be for a rematch against the Packers, who look incredible at home). If the Seahawks win out (they play San Francisco, at Arizona and St. Louis, and they should be favored in all three), they'll win the NFC West, and if they win their last three they'd be the top seed if the Packers and Cowboys each lost a game (although if Seattle won out and there's a three-way tie between the Packers, Seahawks and Cowboys then the Seahawks would win that tiebreaker ... let's just say there's a long way to go).
It's not easy to pencil in three wins for any NFL team, but the Seahawks look up to the task. And if Seattle can get the top seed, the Seahawks instantly become the favorite in the NFC. Lately, they look the part, too.
Very, very close to being ahead of Green Bay. That's how impressive the win at Philadelphia was. Let's not forget that Seattle dominated Green Bay to open the season. A rematch would be fantastic.
Washington Post Fancy Stats
aka the only numerical analysis non-subjective based power ranking
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fanc ... ng-a-move/
1. Packers
2. Patriots
3. Broncos
4. Seahawks
5. Colts
4. Seahawks (+2) The Legion of Boom is back, allowing just 82 passing yards to the Eagles in Seahawks’ ninth win of the season.
NFL Combined Rankings Using Relative Placement
1st: Green Bay Packers (last week: 1st)
VOTES: 1,1,1,1,1,1,2
2nd: New England Patriots (last week: 2nd)
VOTES: 1,2,2,2,2,2,2
3rd: Denver Broncos (last week: 3rd)
VOTES: 3,3,3,3,4,4,4
4th: Seattle Seahawks (last week: 5th)
VOTES: 3,3,3,4,4,4,4
5th: Indianapolis Colts (last week: 6th)
VOTES: 5,5,5 novote, novote, novote, novote
6th: Arizona Cardinals (last week: unranked)
VOTES: 5,5 novote, novote, novote, novote, novote
7th: TIE: Philadelphia Eagles (last week: 4th)
7th: TIE: Detroit Lions (last week: unranked)
VOTES: 5, novote, novote, novote, novote, novote, novote
Fell Out Of Rankings:
aka no 1st through 5th votes this week
none
Some Analysis With Relative Placement and What We Know
None of this is real deep, so if you see a comment and think to yourself "well, duh...", I have no problem with that
Ranking Shakers
The #1, #2, and #3 teams had some potential to be knocked off
Packers (#1) vs Falcons (coming off convincing upset win against Cardinals)
Patriots (#2) vs Chargers (coming off a barnburner win against Ravens)
Broncos (#3) vs Bills (the emotional victors the last few weeks)
Each of the elite teams won as expected.
And of course the big one:
Eagles (#4) vs Seahawks (#5)
The Seahawks winning in very convincing fashion, not reflected in the score, and Denver winning amidst a small bit of doubt with Peyton Manning definitely had some mixing up of the #3 and #4 spots with the Broncos and Seahawks.
Otherwise, the top four spots being for the most part solid left very little for the next tier which showed a number of #5 vote for the next teams down the line where there are a bevy of good to great teams fighting it out.
Natural Breaks from a Tally perspective
Natural Break # 1 Packers are the clear 1st again and many sports radio shows are eschewing the greatness of Aaron Rodgers. At the same time, there seems to be quite a bit of fuzziness on if and when they meet up with the Seahawks again and/or a top rated offense
Natural Break # 2 Patriots are the clear 2nd again with their normal stellar performance. Similar to last week, while these are the breaks, from what we know I would almost put these both in the same natural break. Because of the Packers victory over the Patriots it is easy to pick them #1 and #2, but it is likely a lot closer than the votes would make you think.
Natural Break # 3: Broncos and Seahawks. This is the first time that two teams are this evenly scored. They both garner all the #3 and #4 votes, and the Broncos win with the slimmest majority.
Natural Break #4: The teams near the top but not elite and have problems with the elite teams: Eagles, Colts, Lions, Cardinals. A few more that went unranked but right there as well like the Cowboys.
For the most part, I like these natural breaks and find the most volatile team in there to be the Seahawks because of their surging momentum.
Fancy Stats Outliers
No outliers this time from Fancy Stats. In fact very very clean votes as you can see with #1, #2, and an interchangeable #3 and #4 which leaves just a few teams to pick up a scrap of #5 here and there.
The only outlier again to me is the Yahoo Sports picking the Patriots #1 again and Packers #2 when every other analyst voted the opposite.
Relative Placement Fun
#3 and #4 are very very VERy close. Not only did the Broncos and Seahawks get all the #3 and #4 votes, but they pretty much split them.
In a dance contest, this has happened to our team also. And then I went and talked to all the judges, for the most part each judge was fairly certain of their vote, but one judge was indecisive for a good 15 minutes. He said in a perfect world he'd want to see us both dance again. In the end, it came down to a specific dance style the other team had which he favored over our particular style. And that was it. One little small change and he would have flopped the vote and we would have gotten the upper placement
What all this means: with all the criteria out there that all analysts use, these two teams are for all intents and purposes tied.
Denver has had a bit of trouble, but they still consistently are finding ways to win.
Seattle has had quite a lot of volatility but is now on a big upswing
The fact that Seattle beat Denver (and Green Bay) seems so long ago and to me doesn't even figure in to these rankings. A little lesser of a game by Denver or an even stronger statement by the Seahawks (24-10, 24-7, 19-3) and you might have seen these switched.
Games To Watch For Week 15: Potential Rankings Shakers
With the Elite starting to separate, the rankings shakers pretty much will be upset wins. I don't really see that happening. I don't see the Broncos losing to the Chargers nor the Patriots losing to the Dolphins. Here are a few interesting things to note:
Packers (#1) @ Bills (unranked): Interesting, because Green Bay will finally find themselves facing a top five defense. #5 total yards allowed, #1 in sacks, #7 in total tackles. I expect Green Bay to still win, but will be interesting to see what happens.
Cardinals (#6) @ Rams (unranked): Dangerous just because St. Louis is dangerous. Say what you will about their opponents, shutting out a team is difficult. Arizona is hanging on after two losses and a very close win over Kansas. St. Louis is enjoying wreaking havoc on its division. Of all the games to watch of the rankings teams, this is the one most likely to end in an upset.
Cowboys (unranked) @ Eagles (#7) For division supremacy and affects NFC playoffs. Affecting rankings? The winner likely to be in that #5 spot. I think both teams are really up for this game. I think 8 times out of 10 the Cowboys win this matchup regardless of HFA. So the Eagles had their luck on Thanksgiving. Plus the last three teams to play the Seahawks lost, then lost the next week. The Seahawks seem to bring teams back to reality. And Dallas, whom I thought would have won on Thanksgiving, seems back to form.
Lastly...
49ers (unranked) @ Seahawks (#4) Listed here, because every game scares me still as a fan. From an objective rankings perspective, I don't anticipate much movement: a solid win here will keep the status quo of the Seahawks at #4, anything more would mean four weeks of domination which could put them up to #3.
GO SEAHAWKS!!
