Max Kellerman on Seahawks

[TwistedHusky]

Success is subjective.

So this is an unwinnable argument.

Would the Seahawks still be a success if they went to every NFC conference game and then lost 'Bills-style' by a FG in every game?
(Or would Carroll and Wilson be labeled 'Guys that can get you almost all the way but cannot get it it done' ?)

What if they went to 3 or 4 SBs in a row, again Bills-style, but never won a single one?
(Do you think of the Bills as one of the more dominant FB teams in NFL history?)



Going to the playoffs yearly, almost regularly is an accomplishment. Is it a great accomplishment or a by-product of a much easier path to the playoffs due to more wildcard slots being available?

Watching the Seahawks, it could easily be argued that we could use Wilson more effectively in the playoffs, and you could argue using him so sparingly in the late 2nd half of the season (or more accurately not leveraging more off your offensive off of his abilities) leads to playoff games that find us scrambling to implement offenses we are not prepared for - usually when down by halftime.

The Seahawks had great success with Wilson. But with one of the greatest weapons and most difficult to defend players in the league, should the Seahawks regularly be nothing more than a wildcard and essentially lose any division game before it starts? (at least for the last 7 years).

And are Carroll's simplistic,and often blatantly flawed, gameplans part of the reason for the Seahawks never winning even a division game since the SB loss?

We have to face reality that with a new owner, comes different expectations. The expectations are being met, so there is no reason to expect improvement. But yes, Wilson would likely have much more success somewhere else if he went there now.

(For at least the past half decade the Hawks appear to have underachieved...considering how much advantage a great QB gives a team in the playoffs.)

 

[pittpnthrs]

If its another season with the same results then I would say he's spot on.

Are the Packers wasting Aaron Rodger's career?
Did the Saints waste Drew Brees career?
Are the Chiefs wasting Patrick Mahomes career because they lost the SB last year?

You could literally say this about every top 10 QB save for Brady in the entire league. It's a dumb metric and statement to say just because Russell doesn't have more SB wins..........which is VERY VERY hard to do for any QB and franchise.

No QB's career is being wasted when he's perennially a top 5 QB in every statistical category and is someday going to put on a gold jacket.

It's lame lazy sports talk fodder.

Yet he cant get past the 2nd round of the playoffs like the others mentioned. Is that on the perennial top 5 QB or the head guy controlling things? Its on the white haired guy and thats why i'm saying Wilson is being wasted. Wilson is good enough to get the team to the postseason, but just cant overcome Carrolls incompetence once there. Those are wasted years and it wont change until Pete steps down. Sadly Wilson will leave before that happens.

What round of the playoffs do you require Russell get past in order not to blame Pete for wasting his career?

Divisional round? Conference Championship?

Is there a specific number of times he needs to do that for you to give Russell some onus and blame for his own career failings?

Or do we just blame Pete every year we don't win a SB. It's a lazy argument and doesn't take into account other factors that are very important, most importantly Russell himself. I don't love what Pete and John did from 2014-2019 personnel and drafting wise, but if we're saying Russell's career has been wasted, then some of that blame needs to fall on Russell.

We can argue about percentage of blame, but for me it's at least 50%. Dude stunk for most of the 2nd half of the season last year, including an abysmal four game stretch where he turned the ball over six times........AFTER Pete supposedly "let Russ cook."

Carroll blew Super Bowl 49 with the worst call ever made and he's been bad ever since. Just look at the playoff game against the Rams last year. There was no reason in the world the Seahawks should have lost to a team with an injured QB and a depleted defense but yet they did. McVay coached circles around Carroll as usual and left him not even understanding what had happened. Thats what you get with Pete Carroll and its a lot to overcome for a team. When a generational QB comes around once in a lifetime like Wilson, the team should be able to get past the 2nd round of the post season sometimes right? Seattle cant and everybody knows the reason why even if they cant admit it to themselves. Even Russ is getting fed up with it.

Its the same old story every single year. No matter how many changes are made or how many different players are signed, the team has an early playoff exit. The root cause of that just got a 5 year extension so expect more of the same because Wilson cant overcome that. I dont think any QB could. Thats why Wilson is being wasted.

 

[Chapow]

I made this exact same argument in this thread on Tuesday. He didn't respond to my post, but who knows? Maybe he'll respond to yours? Doubt it, but you never know.

Sorry, I guess I just dont pay much attention to you.

I mean, how could you? I very rarely post anything here anymore because it's basically impossible to have any kind rational discussion regarding pretty much anything Seahawks related. So why bother?

 

[knownone]

Russell is not currently in the conversation for 2nd best career of all time. For perspective, at the same age, Joe Montana had 3 Super Bowls rings, 2 Super Bowl MVPs, and a league MVP. Similarly, Peyton Manning already had 4 MVPs.

I admit to not finding MVP remotely interesting and think that post season success is largely team driven. I do agree that a couple of the young QBs today could end up having very good careers themselves and that it can be tricky to compare across eras.

In my view if you look at numbers that QBs can actually control then Wilson's career thus far is competitive.

32 year old Montana - 6.51 ANY/A 63.2% comp 92.0 QB Rating 206 TDs 29k yards
32 year old Wilson - 6.99 ANY/A 65.1% comp 101.7 QB Rating 288 TDs 40k yards
32 year old Manning - 7.06 ANY/A 64.4% comp 94.7 QB Rating 350 TDs 46k yards
32 year old Rodgers - 7.51 ANY/A 65.1% comp 104.1 QB Rating 278 TDs 34k yards
32 year old Brees - 6.73 ANY/A 65.9% comp 94.0 QB Rating 289 TDs 41k yards

I'm confused. You don't value individual accolades, and you don't value post-season success? Who's your #1 QB? I personally think Brady is the #1 QB because of his postseason success. However, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Brees are objectively better QBs statistically, so how are you comparing them?

Those stats are misleading because it's still a comparison between eras. The only close age/career comparison is Rodgers, which would be like comparing Wilson to Mahomes in that they play in the same, yet slightly different eras. That's where things get weird for Wilson:

Mahomes: 8.49 ANY/A 66.0% comp 108.7 QB Rating 114 TDs 15k yards
Watson: 7.26 ANY/A 67.8% comp 104.5 QB Rating 104 TDs 17k yards

In this case, Mahomes's per-season average is higher than Russell's best season. That brings up the question is the difference between Russell and Mahomes a significant gap in skill or the result of the relatively recent changes in offense in the league? I would argue it's the changes in the league, and by making that argument for Russ, I'd also have to do it for Montana, Manning, Brees, etc.

You can make a similar analysis by comparing Wilson's stats to his contemporaries by year rather than age. When you do that, both Brees and Rodgers have better stats than Wilson since 2012, and Wilson is ahead of Brady. Manning is harder to compare, but (omitting his final year), his three-year stretch post neck surgery is the best per/season average in NFL history (44TDs / 12int / 5000 yards/ 108 QB Rating / 8.17 ANY/A). So if he's doing that at 36, coming off severe neck surgery, imagine what he could have done in his prime.

 

[pittpnthrs]

I made this exact same argument in this thread on Tuesday. He didn't respond to my post, but who knows? Maybe he'll respond to yours? Doubt it, but you never know.

Sorry, I guess I just dont pay much attention to you.

I mean, how could you? I very rarely post anything here anymore because it's basically impossible to have any kind rational discussion regarding pretty much anything Seahawks related. So why bother?

So basically if its not a subject that goes along with your opinion, its not rational. Got it.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Or do we just blame Pete every year we don't win a SB. It's a lazy argument and doesn't take into account other factors that are very important, most importantly Russell himself. I don't love what Pete and John did from 2014-2019 personnel and drafting wise, but if we're saying Russell's career has been wasted, then some of that blame needs to fall on Russell.

We can argue about percentage of blame, but for me it's at least 50%. Dude stunk for most of the 2nd half of the season last year, including an abysmal four game stretch where he turned the ball over six times........AFTER Pete supposedly "let Russ cook."

Another thing that needs to be noted. How many times in Wilsons tenure has he pulled Carrolls butt out of the fire with his 4th quarter heroics? You know, when Carrolls game plan gets thrown out the window because it has to in order to win? How many times?

Fool me once,,shame on you. Fool me twice,,shame on me. Fool somebody over and over,,they are just being blind. Carroll blinds a lot of fans.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

...Since Wilson has dreams of being an “owner” he needs to stack his chicken all he can so, a pay cut is not in the cards...

That sounds like a Hell of an auto-correct.

If you aren’t aware, “Chicken” is what Marshawn Lynch uses as a synonym for “money.”

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

Correcting his part is what we have not seen since most the issues have been the same ones since Bevell was here. He has got better, but he still favors things rather then use the entire field and throw a receiver open rather then wait till they clear. Which falls into the other issue being in the pocket longer and taking sacks or getting O line penalties.[/quote]

Truth!

Throw the ball out faster and you won’t get sacked.

You can have the best pass protection in the NFL and you will still get sacked if you hold onto the ball too long.

Don’t hold onto the ball and you won’t get sacked.

 

[Rat]

I've always really liked Kellerman. Granted, replacing Skip Bayless has to be the easiest job in the world. Those aren't exactly clown shoes he's following in.

 

[flv]

If you aren’t aware, “Chicken” is what Marshawn Lynch uses as a synonym for “money.”

I definitely wasn't aware of that so thank you for helping me decipher it. The full extent of my Marshawn Lynch was "I'm just here so I won't get fined". I'm not much of a linguist.

 

[Chapow]

I made this exact same argument in this thread on Tuesday. He didn't respond to my post, but who knows? Maybe he'll respond to yours? Doubt it, but you never know.

Sorry, I guess I just dont pay much attention to you.

I mean, how could you? I very rarely post anything here anymore because it's basically impossible to have any kind rational discussion regarding pretty much anything Seahawks related. So why bother?

So basically if its not a subject that goes along with your opinion, its not rational. Got it.

Sorry, but despite your arrogance, no, you don't "got it".

Perhaps you can explain the rationale behind your opinion that losing in the 1st round of the playoffs is a waste, losing in the 2nd round is a waste, but getting to the playoffs less often and losing in the 3rd round isn't a waste? Because that doesn't seem like a very logical opinion to me. It seems like it's more of an emotional opinion because you think they should have done better, but they didn't, so your frustrated or perhaps even angry about it and your reaction to that is to come to the conclusion that Russ is being wasted.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Sorry, I guess I just dont pay much attention to you.

I mean, how could you? I very rarely post anything here anymore because it's basically impossible to have any kind rational discussion regarding pretty much anything Seahawks related. So why bother?

So basically if its not a subject that goes along with your opinion, its not rational. Got it.

Sorry, but despite your arrogance, no, you don't "got it".

Perhaps you can explain the rationale behind your opinion that losing in the 1st round of the playoffs is a waste, losing in the 2nd round is a waste, but getting to the playoffs less often and losing in the 3rd round isn't a waste? Because that doesn't seem like a very logical opinion to me. It seems like it's more of an emotional opinion because you think they should have done better, but they didn't, so your frustrated or perhaps even angry about it and your reaction to that is to come to the conclusion that Russ is being wasted.

He is being wasted. A better head coach would give the team a better chance to advance in the post season. With Pete Carroll and his poor game planning, the 2nd round is Seattles ceiling at this point. Wilson has to beat two opponents in the post season and when they play a team with similar talent, they lose. As good as Wilson is, he cant overcome that. Nobody can.

Look, I get it. Fans love Carroll because he won a Super Bowl with a perfect storm of a historical defense, a monster running back, and a generational QB. Pete always gets a free pass due to that and it doesnt seem bad because the team keeps winning regular season games which fools people into thinking they are contenders when they clearly arent. Well Pete has been riding Wilsons coattails for years now. Seriously, Wilson has been covering up so many of Petes coaching deficiencies that its comical at this point. Honestly, look at Pete Carrolls NFL record without Russell Wilson. Pete has always needed optimal talent to win (in college too). He's never going to out coach teams from an X and O's standpoint. He just isnt good enough in that area. Wilson deserves the credit for the teams success, not Carroll. I would love to see Russ with an innovative coach to see what he could really do. Whether Pete finally steps down or Russ leaves, I imagine i'll get my wish within the next two years.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Perhaps you can explain the rationale behind your opinion that losing in the 1st round of the playoffs is a waste, losing in the 2nd round is a waste, but getting to the playoffs less often and losing in the 3rd round isn't a waste? Because that doesn't seem like a very logical opinion to me. It seems like it's more of an emotional opinion because you think they should have done better, but they didn't, so your frustrated or perhaps even angry about it and your reaction to that is to come to the conclusion that Russ is being wasted.

To answer your questions more clearly, yes, I would rather make the playoffs less often and make it to the 3rd round than to lose every single year in the first and second. Why,,,because it shows improvement. Losing in the same early rounds year after year is just monotony and thats where the Seahawks are. I dont understand how people are complacent with that.

Honestly, its not an emotional opinion. I expect it at this point because its what always happens. With Pete at the helm, I go into the season without an ounce of hope the Hawks will do anything other than taking their usual early exit in the post season because thats what they always do. I'm just trying to explain to people why it happens, but they dont want to hear it because Pete won a Super Bowl once.

 

[BASF]

I made this exact same argument in this thread on Tuesday. He didn't respond to my post, but who knows? Maybe he'll respond to yours? Doubt it, but you never know.

Sorry, I guess I just dont pay much attention to you.

Again, the difference between Rodgers, Brees, and Mahommes are that they play for organizations and head coaches that can get past the 2nd round of the post season and do. Not all of the time but they certainly arent stuck in the vicious cycle that Wilson is. Russ not only has to fight the other team, he has to fight horrendous game plans too. Thats not going to change as long as Carroll is here. It'll just be more rinse and re-pete.

Last years playoff game plan was to have Wilson throw the ball all over the field (which is what most of you are clamoring for) and Wilson failed. The most blame Carroll can be given for that game was starting Iupati which was a gigantic mistake.

 

[pittpnthrs]

I made this exact same argument in this thread on Tuesday. He didn't respond to my post, but who knows? Maybe he'll respond to yours? Doubt it, but you never know.

Sorry, I guess I just dont pay much attention to you.

Again, the difference between Rodgers, Brees, and Mahommes are that they play for organizations and head coaches that can get past the 2nd round of the post season and do. Not all of the time but they certainly arent stuck in the vicious cycle that Wilson is. Russ not only has to fight the other team, he has to fight horrendous game plans too. Thats not going to change as long as Carroll is here. It'll just be more rinse and re-pete.

Last years playoff game plan was to have Wilson throw the ball all over the field (which is what most of you are clamoring for) and Wilson failed. The most blame Carroll can be given for that game was starting Iupati which was a gigantic mistake.

There was absolutely no derivation from the previous game plan just a couple weeks earlier against the Rams. Thats why a beat up, depleted Rams team won. McVay coached circles around Pete as usual and Pete didnt understand that it even happened after the game. He was dumbfounded and probably still doesnt get it. Thats the handicap the team has to deal with. Its also a testament of how bad the defense truly was. They seemed to be better during the second half. but they were playing creampuffs during that stretch. A playoff game and they allowed Akers to run for 130+ yards. People sure got fooled with that too.

 

[John63]

I made this exact same argument in this thread on Tuesday. He didn't respond to my post, but who knows? Maybe he'll respond to yours? Doubt it, but you never know.

Sorry, I guess I just dont pay much attention to you.

Again, the difference between Rodgers, Brees, and Mahommes are that they play for organizations and head coaches that can get past the 2nd round of the post season and do. Not all of the time but they certainly arent stuck in the vicious cycle that Wilson is. Russ not only has to fight the other team, he has to fight horrendous game plans too. Thats not going to change as long as Carroll is here. It'll just be more rinse and re-pete.

Last years playoff game plan was to have Wilson throw the ball all over the field (which is what most of you are clamoring for) and Wilson failed. The most blame Carroll can be given for that game was starting Iupati which was a gigantic mistake.

Ahh you really dont remember what happened at all do you.

First off Wilson only through 27 times that is not enough to say throw allover the field. 2nd Wilson through the ball 3 times in the 1st qtr out of 12 plays.

in the end 2qtr we were down 10, and he still only through 5 times out of 17 plays.


3rd qtr he through 10 times out of 22 plays. OF those 5 were 2nd or 3rd and long

The 4th we were down well doe sit really matter at thsi point

So you whole Wilson through all over the field is factually wrong

 

[BASF]

I made this exact same argument in this thread on Tuesday. He didn't respond to my post, but who knows? Maybe he'll respond to yours? Doubt it, but you never know.

Sorry, I guess I just dont pay much attention to you.

Again, the difference between Rodgers, Brees, and Mahommes are that they play for organizations and head coaches that can get past the 2nd round of the post season and do. Not all of the time but they certainly arent stuck in the vicious cycle that Wilson is. Russ not only has to fight the other team, he has to fight horrendous game plans too. Thats not going to change as long as Carroll is here. It'll just be more rinse and re-pete.

Last years playoff game plan was to have Wilson throw the ball all over the field (which is what most of you are clamoring for) and Wilson failed. The most blame Carroll can be given for that game was starting Iupati which was a gigantic mistake.

Ahh you really dont remember what happened at all do you.

First off Wilson only through 27 times that is not enough to say throw allover the field. 2nd Wilson through the ball 3 times in the 1st qtr out of 12 plays.

in the end 2qtr we were down 10, and he still only through 5 times out of 17 plays.


3rd qtr he through 10 times out of 22 plays. OF those 5 were 2nd or 3rd and long

The 4th we were down well doe sit really matter at thsi point

So you whole Wilson through all over the field is factually wrong

Intellectual dishonesty at it's finest. You cherry pick with saying that Wilson threw the ball instead of counting his failures during called pass plays.

First, Wilson had thirty-nine called pass plays. The balance toward running did not come until after the pick six. The first quarter only had the Seahawks run eight plays (no idea where you get twelve) and five of them were pass plays.

The second quarter had eighteen plays (no idea where you get your numbers) had ten pass plays called. We finally ran more than passed in a drive immediately after the pick six that showed Schottenheimer was outcoached by their defensive coordinator. The ten point deficit was directly from Wilson's failure to see that Williams had diagnosed the play. He should have thrown that ball out of bounds.

Third quarter, there were eight runs and eleven pass plays. Once again there was only one drive where we ran more than we passed. This was after the team was down and Wilson continued to throw incomplete passes.

I agree with the fourth quarter assessment.

The lion share of blame for the game plan does not fall on Carroll. The game plan was to have his Hall of Fame QB win him a playoff game (again as many here clamor for) and his QB failed. He wilted on the pressure from the Rams defense even after Donald was injured.

The blame Carroll is directly responsible for as I stated was having Iupati start. He was a year past when he should have retired and we kept him on the roster. We caught a break when he got injured, but Carroll had him start.

 

[pittpnthrs]

The lion share of blame for the game plan does not fall on Carroll. The game plan was to have his Hall of Fame QB win him a playoff game (again as many here clamor for) and his QB failed. He wilted on the pressure from the Rams defense even after Donald was injured.

The blame Carroll is directly responsible for as I stated was having Iupati start. He was a year past when he should have retired and we kept him on the roster. We caught a break when he got injured, but Carroll had him start.

My problem with all of this is that Wilson was under duress the entire game and even if it was mostly Lupatis fault, the head coach has to adjust and start rolling his QB out. Guess how many plays had Wilson rolling out? ZERO. Carroll doesnt get a pass in that game. The worst part was that Pete admitted to not understanding how and why they lost. Come on now.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

I mean, how could you? I very rarely post anything here anymore because it's basically impossible to have any kind rational discussion regarding pretty much anything Seahawks related. So why bother?

So basically if its not a subject that goes along with your opinion, its not rational. Got it.

Sorry, but despite your arrogance, no, you don't "got it".

Perhaps you can explain the rationale behind your opinion that losing in the 1st round of the playoffs is a waste, losing in the 2nd round is a waste, but getting to the playoffs less often and losing in the 3rd round isn't a waste? Because that doesn't seem like a very logical opinion to me. It seems like it's more of an emotional opinion because you think they should have done better, but they didn't, so your frustrated or perhaps even angry about it and your reaction to that is to come to the conclusion that Russ is being wasted.

He is being wasted. A better head coach would give the team a better chance to advance in the post season. With Pete Carroll and his poor game planning, the 2nd round is Seattles ceiling at this point. Wilson has to beat two opponents in the post season and when they play a team with similar talent, they lose. As good as Wilson is, he cant overcome that. Nobody can.

Look, I get it. Fans love Carroll because he won a Super Bowl with a perfect storm of a historical defense, a monster running back, and a generational QB. Pete always gets a free pass due to that and it doesnt seem bad because the team keeps winning regular season games which fools people into thinking they are contenders when they clearly arent. Well Pete has been riding Wilsons coattails for years now. Seriously, Wilson has been covering up so many of Petes coaching deficiencies that its comical at this point. Honestly, look at Pete Carrolls NFL record without Russell Wilson. Pete has always needed optimal talent to win (in college too). He's never going to out coach teams from an X and O's standpoint. He just isnt good enough in that area. Wilson deserves the credit for the teams success, not Carroll. I would love to see Russ with an innovative coach to see what he could really do. Whether Pete finally steps down or Russ leaves, I imagine i'll get my wish within the next two years.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

Come playoff time, it’s the same old story since the last Super Bowl run.

Zero to very little consistent offense.

Stalled drives. Three and out. Bottled up run game. No pass game.

If Seattle gets to the playoffs this year and it looks the same from previous playoff runs then the constant variable is Carroll mismanagement and lack of a functional game plan. You can’t go through various offensive coordinators and continue to use them as a scapegoat. Carroll would be the problem. Wilson is a top 5 QB and a head coach that can play to Wilson’s strengths should be able to win.

This is the defining year for Carroll.

Either he fixed the problem with Waldron or Carroll has always been the problem.

We’ll see.

 

[AgentDib]

I'm confused. You don't value individual accolades, and you don't value post-season success? Who's your #1 QB? I personally think Brady is the #1 QB because of his postseason success. However, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Brees are objectively better QBs statistically, so how are you comparing them?

In my view the QB is the most important position on a team, but still just one member. Individual accolades and post-season success are often largely team driven and as a result the QBs get too much credit when they succeed and too much blame when they fail. Brady has had such ridiculous success that even discounting a big portion of that as a team product still leaves him as the #1 QB by a mile.

I think my view is well substantiated by history (but of course I would). Look at the MVP voting over the last twenty years and it has been first about what team was really hot and then singling out a star from that team. Gurley got 8 votes in 2017 because voters didn't want to vote for Goff and were too dumb to vote for Donald. Russ's lack of MVP votes due to a consistent rather than meteoric career mirrors Carroll's lack of COTY votes and should dissuade most Hawks followers from putting too much stock into media voting. All pros are more persuasive but are still heavily influenced by team success. It will be interesting to see how those shake out the next couple of years in the NFC.

I do agree that comparing between eras is difficult, but that's also why it's fun and the lack of objective truth makes it a perfect discussion topic. Yes, the system was much more difficult for QBs in the 80s but parity and competition was also much lower. Is it possible that the smooth transition from Montana to Young was at least partly because the SF offense of that era was far ahead of it's contemporaries? Rather than having the best talent of all time somehow grouped together on the same team it's much more likely to me that they had good talent grouped together in a system that was visionary for the era.

The NFL is far more competitive in 2021 and adapts on a week to week basis rather than over the course of years. That's a big reason why I think Brady's current success puts him far ahead of previous era QBs who were successful in a time when dynasties were commonplace.