Mariners 2018/19 offseason thread...

[Hawk-Lock]

What an few weeks it has been.

It's so hard to measure MLB trades because nobody knows what these prospects will become. Everyone is going to have a different grade for the trade because everyone see's the prospects differently. You are either high on them or you aren't. Some scouts called Sheffield a reliever, some think he's an ace. I see some people saying JP Crawford can become Jean Segura, others think he probably tops out as a utility infielder.

Bottom line is we are rebuilding and getting younger. We are allowing us to have a chance in a couple seasons. Hopefully some of these guys pan out.

I wasn't crazy about the Pax trade, but I get it. We probably could have gotten more for him if we waited til the deadline when teams always unload for a big time pitcher, but who knows if Pax would even be healthy by then.

The Colome trade for the catcher sounds great. He seems like the opposite of Zunino, not a lot of power but makes a lot of contact.

I really like the Cano and Diaz deal, probably gets my best grade of all the trades this off season. We were able to dump Cano's contract and only pay them $20 mill, I was expecting us to pay about half his remaining contract. Big win. Diaz fetched us two really nice prospects, one who could be a 5 tool player. Sure we had to bring on some contracts, but they will all be off the books by the time we want to compete. Diaz is great, but his value will likely never be higher than it is. We all know relievers can be great one year and crap the next. Lets not act like Diaz has been lights out every season, he was great his rookie season and not so great his next season.

This team is going to be pretty wild to watch next season because I feel like it isn't going to have a ton of purpose. I don't think Dipoto will care much who takes the field, he is completely looking ahead to the future. The opening day roster won't have many guys who will be on the team in a couple years. I think to say we will be a mid 70's win team is pushing it. This team is likely going to be awful, and I'm fine with that. In sports it is better to be awful than mediocre.

I'm just excited we aren't going to see the same mid 80's win team. The rebuild may fail, but at least we are doing it the smart way.

 

[DJrmb]

Its not like he can say "tearing it down... what do you guys want?"

The Paxton trade was underwhelming, but still very good prospects. The Colome trade was very good. Zunino trade also good.

Diaz for three good players also a solid return. Cano for Bruce saves money, gives the team a vet they can trade at the deadline.

Segura for Crawford on its own is a good deal if the team is rebuilding. They get Santana, who like Bruce, can net something later on. Crawford is far more than "raw" and has the potential to streak by Segura's ceiling. He got hurt last year in his call up so numbers are low. Sounds like Gamel might be the vet going to philly as well to net that prospect.

These arent flashy deals. But the Ms are now a mid 70s win team rather than mid 80s with millions in salary saved, a mess of talented players and flexibility to continue building that core.

This is all about 2020-21... and its not a terrible start. Hernandez will be off the books. Seager will be gone and there will be both lots of cash and lots of good young players. Houston just did this. Milwaukee as well. Oakland every 5 years

The team they fielded last year was not going to pass Houston and would struggle to keep up with Oakland. Thos had to happen.

Yes they are giving up on 2019 for the most part. But i like that the team has potential to remain relevant while being patient for a year.

Excellent post.

It's a big if but, IF, guys like Bruce and Santana have decent starts these trades could go from solid to A+ deals for the Mariners. The one complaint I have is with the Cano/Diaz deal. I would have preferred that being done separate and going after a top 25 prospect with Diaz rather than guys that are ranked around 60th. I feel like they got talked into taking a hit on the quality of prospect because of packaging Cano in the deal. Diaz, if dealt by himself, should have gotten you a top 25 maybe top 15 prospect. They got more guys (quantity) going with the Mets trade but personally I'd rather have quality over quantity in these circumstances (2 year quick tear down and rebuild). If they were planning to go the full 5-7 year complete rebuild then yeah give me quantity and younger guys. However, in this sort of rebuild you're really going to need to hit on a lot of these prospects you're bringing in if you really plan to compete in 2021, so you need players closer to "sure things" rather than lottery tickets.

All in all I'm happy they decided not to hold onto Diaz as "untouchable". It just makes zero sense to rebuild but refuse to trade away your biggest trade chips. Doing that you're just completely wasting a talented players best years and just hoping that your rebuild stays on the schedule you planned and you don't end up simply losing those guys to free agency anyways before you're ready to compete. I expect Haniger to be dealt at some point too, and for a huge haul.

 

[Sports Hernia]

I’m still disappointed Seager and Felix are still here.

 

[Sports Hernia]

Its not like he can say "tearing it down... what do you guys want?"

The Paxton trade was underwhelming, but still very good prospects. The Colome trade was very good. Zunino trade also good.

Diaz for three good players also a solid return. Cano for Bruce saves money, gives the team a vet they can trade at the deadline.

Segura for Crawford on its own is a good deal if the team is rebuilding. They get Santana, who like Bruce, can net something later on. Crawford is far more than "raw" and has the potential to streak by Segura's ceiling. He got hurt last year in his call up so numbers are low. Sounds like Gamel might be the vet going to philly as well to net that prospect.

These arent flashy deals. But the Ms are now a mid 70s win team rather than mid 80s with millions in salary saved, a mess of talented players and flexibility to continue building that core.

This is all about 2020-21... and its not a terrible start. Hernandez will be off the books. Seager will be gone and there will be both lots of cash and lots of good young players. Houston just did this. Milwaukee as well. Oakland every 5 years

The team they fielded last year was not going to pass Houston and would struggle to keep up with Oakland. Thos had to happen.

Yes they are giving up on 2019 for the most part. But i like that the team has potential to remain relevant while being patient for a year.

Excellent post.

It's a big if but, IF, guys like Bruce and Santana have decent starts these trades could go from solid to A+ deals for the Mariners. The one complaint I have is with the Cano/Diaz deal. I would have preferred that being done separate and going after a top 25 prospect with Diaz rather than guys that are ranked around 60th. I feel like they got talked into taking a hit on the quality of prospect because of packaging Cano in the deal. Diaz, if dealt by himself, should have gotten you a top 25 maybe top 15 prospect. They got more guys (quantity) going with the Mets trade but personally I'd rather have quality over quantity in these circumstances (2 year quick tear down and rebuild). If they were planning to go the full 5-7 year complete rebuild then yeah give me quantity and younger guys. However, in this sort of rebuild you're really going to need to hit on a lot of these prospects you're bringing in if you really plan to compete in 2021, so you need players closer to "sure things" rather than lottery tickets.

All in all I'm happy they decided not to hold onto Diaz as "untouchable". It just makes zero sense to rebuild but refuse to trade away your biggest trade chips. Doing that you're just completely wasting a talented players best years and just hoping that your rebuild stays on the schedule you planned and you don't end up simply losing those guys to free agency anyways before you're ready to compete. I expect Haniger to be dealt at some point too, and for a huge haul.

If it takes you 7 years to rebuild a team, you are doing it wrong and have no business running a baseball team. If you do it right it’s a 3-5 year process, 5 years is the maximum it should take you.

 

[sutz]

I’m still disappointed Seager and Felix are still here.

I like Seagar, but if they try another season of that lame-ass King's Court, I swear I'll hurl. Felix in no way deserves that kind of support any more.

 

[Bobblehead]

THey might as well just keep Felix.. he has nothing left and nothing that would return any value. THe teams not going anywhere, just keep him, let him retire as the greatest Mariner pitcher ever.

 

[DJrmb]

If it takes you 7 years to rebuild a team, you are doing it wrong and have no business running a baseball team. If you do it right it’s a 3-5 year process, 5 years is the maximum it should take you.

That's not exclusively true. It depends on what kind of rebuild you're doing. If you're going the long route (like Houston did) and stocking up on 18 and 19 year olds (sometimes even 16 year old international signings) hoping to bring up a few super stars all together then it's going to take a lot longer than 2-3 years. The Astro's started their rebuild in 2010, they won their WS in 2017. You are entitled to your own opinion, but I don't think "they did it wrong".

 

[West TX Hawk]

The rebuild will be at least 4 years. Jerry can claim 2 year retooling all he wants, but this is a lengthy process. Took the Cubs 5 years to make the playoffs, 6 to win it all, Astros about the same. Meanwhile 1/3 of the league is copycatting trying to emulate their success-only a few will succeed, but if we at least get to the Brewers and Braves level by '22 or '23 then perhaps it will have worked.

Regarding Seager, he will be gone soon but the only way to dump his horrid contract is to link him with Haniger, our last good asset. As for Felix, release him and eat the 27 mil-in a rebuild you need your prospects to get as many non-pressure innings and at bats. Felix would be wasting a spot for a young, close to major league ready SP we either have now or may acquire in the next few weeks.

 

[Uncle Si]

The rebuild will be at least 4 years. Jerry can claim 2 year retooling all he wants, but this is a lengthy process. Took the Cubs 5 years to make the playoffs, 6 to win it all, Astros about the same. Meanwhile 1/3 of the league is copycatting trying to emulate their success-only a few will succeed, but if we at least get to the Brewers and Braves level by '22 or '23 then perhaps it will have worked.

Regarding Seager, he will be gone soon but the only way to dump his horrid contract is to link him with Haniger, our last good asset. As for Felix, release him and eat the 27 mil-in a rebuild you need your prospects to get as many non-pressure innings and at bats. Felix would be wasting a spot for a young, close to major league ready SP we either have now or may acquire in the next few weeks.

Seager and felix will be gone by next year at the absolute latest.

The difference between 2 and 4 years will be free agents. The point of all this is less (from what ive read) to build a young team (like the Braves or Astros) and more to free up money for a free agent haul in '20 to couple with the emerging youngsters.

Get both right and the team could be vying for 90+ wins within 2 years. As is, the team can win 75. Its not THAT far to go

 

[Hawk-Lock]

Well the early idea was a 2 year rebuild, that was with keeping a lot of the guys that are already gone. Now this looks more like a long term rebuild, which I'm fine with. Honestly, I could care less if the team sucks or not. They are never good, so it's not like some huge disappointment when they miss out on the playoffs. We are all used to them putting a garbage product on the field.

If we can deal Haniger, go ahead and do it. Someone will give up a lot for him because of the type of player he is and his team friendly contract.

Not sure how I feel about the Segura deal. Seems like we didn't get great return but what do I know about prospects. Seems like we could have flipped him at the deadline for a lot more.

 

[mrt144]

So safe to say...same old Mariners?

 

[Uncle Si]

So safe to say...same old Mariners?

Except completely different

So yes, in a weird way

 

[chris98251]

Seattle has been rebuilding since 2001, so 6 seasons should seem like overnight.

 

[Bobblehead]

Well the Segura trade looks like crap. Don't we want high prospects that will be ready in 3 to 4 years..?
Damn we gave a lot.

 

[Uncle Si]

Dipoto points out that payroll in '19 will still be in the 140's. As for future spending, "We feel we put ourselves in the position that when our young players are on the field that team can use the free agents to finish a team, rather than build one."

This is if they dont flip Bruce or Santana (i think atleast one will be gone by deadline) and dump Seager.

 

[Uncle Si]

Well the Segura trade looks like crap. Don't we want high prospects that will be ready in 3 to 4 years..?
Damn we gave a lot.

Pazos is broken and Nicasio is terrible and cost 9 million.

They wont be missed and that 9 mill saved can be put to better use

Segura for Crawford and Santana and sending two poor relievers to balance the salary plus free some space isnt bad.

No additional prospect kind of sucks but that says a lot about Crawford and the two pitchers

 

[Sports Hernia]

THey might as well just keep Felix.. he has nothing left and nothing that would return any value. THe teams not going anywhere, just keep him, let him retire as the greatest Mariner pitcher ever.

The only good thing about Felix is his contract is up after next season with a club option for 2020 I believe.
Seager and his contract will be tough to move as he’s owed a crapton of money still.

 

[poly1274]

The only thing I really care is, can Ichiro play Mariners full time on DH position in 2019?

 

[Uncle Si]

THey might as well just keep Felix.. he has nothing left and nothing that would return any value. THe teams not going anywhere, just keep him, let him retire as the greatest Mariner pitcher ever.

The only good thing about Felix is his contract is up after next season with a club option for 2020 I believe.
Seager and his contract will be tough to move as he’s owed a crapton of money still.

To move seager they will have to include another plsyer, pay some of his salary and take on a big salary. The benefit would be taking on a shorter salary

 

[Hawk-Lock]

So who makes the playoffs first, the Mariners or the expansion NHL team in Seattle? Sadly, it will probably be the NHL team.