Love/Hate

[Hawk-Lock]

ESPN does this every year. It's simple, who do you Love and who do you Hate in fantasy this season?

Love:

QB

Aaron Rodgers - Great value on him after last years disappointing season. A couple years ago he was a no-brainer 2nd round pick. Now you can get him in the 4th. As long as Jordy is there, he will be a top 3 QB.

Tom Brady - When he plays, he is one of the best. QB is deep as ever, just find a QB who has a favorable schedule during Brady's suspension.

Drew Brees - His defense is horrible. Brees will throw....a lot. He is a sure thing to finish as a top 5-7 QB.

RB

Lamar Miller - The backfield is all his. Little to no competition. A true 3-down back (how many RB's can you say that for?). He should be a solid bet for 20+ touches a game for a team that could be deceptively good on offense. The Texans should have a very good defense. A great defense is always a RB's best friend. I personally think he is a top 5 RB this year. Bill O'Brien also loves to run the football, I believe we were the only team to run more than the Texans the past two years.

CJ Anderson - Kubiak RB's always do well. I throw out last year because Kubiak never got to run his offense thanks to Peyton having to be in the shotgun. CJ really came on strong towards the end of the season, and it's pretty clear that it is his backfield. Rumors are that Hillman may not even make the final cuts. And I doubt Denver throws a ton, CJ should be a good bet for 20+ touches a game, and Denver's defense should allow them to play ahead in most of their games.

Matt Jones - I'm a sucker for guys who get a lot of volume. I love the high floor guys, and I think Jones is a safe bet for 80 yards from scrimmage every game. And he has a high ceiling as well, as he showed he can take it to the house on any play. He just can't get in the way of himself. They got rid of Alfred Morris, basically giving him the reigns to the backfield. Thompson should mix in on 3rd downs, but I'd expect Jones to get close to 75% of the snaps, and most importantly, the goal-line carries.

Frank Gore - I hate to put him here, but based on ADP he is a steal. For one, he is always healthy. Last year he finished as the 12th best RB, and that was on an awful Colts team that was without their starting QB for a lot of games. If the Colts can improve at all, his numbers should go up. The Oline can't be any worst than it was last year (or can it?). There is little to no competition for carries in Indy's backfield. I think Gore is a solid bet for 15+ touches. I think most people will draft him as a FLEX, but he should easily finish as a top 20 RB. The problem with Gore is he doesn't have the high ceiling that fantasy owners love, but he has a really high floor.

WR

Jordy Nelson & Randall Cobb - I'm all in on the Packers this year. ADP bargains thanks to last years down season. Jordy should have no problem regaining his WR1 territory, and Cobb should be a solid WR2.

Josh Gordon - This one could backfire on me, but I can't ignore getting a potential WR1 in the 7th-9th rounds. And yes, the Browns will suck, which will mean plenty of throwing.

Torrey Smith - I hate to put him here, but I'm doing it for one reason. Chip Kelly. That and the 49ers are awful which should lead to plenty of garbage points. WR's on bad teams are a great thing in fantasy. You can get him real late, I think Torrey could finish as high as a WR2.

TE

Jordan Reed - If not for the injuries last year, he would have basically put up the exact same numbers as Gronk. And best of all, you can get him about 20 picks after Gronk. As long as he stays healthy, he should be a slam-dunk for double digit TD's and the #2 TE behind Gronk.

Zach Miller - This is the Bears Zach Miller, not the retired Seahawks Zach Miller. He had good chemistry with Cutler last year. He should take a lot of Martellus Bennet's targets. Not to mention the Bears could be really bad, meaning a lot of throwing and garbage time points.

Coby Fleener - Brees loves himself some TE. See Jimmy Graham. See Ben Watson.

Hate

QB

Any QB you take before the 4th round - Don't do it. QB is deeper than ever. Wait if you can.

RB

Devonta Freeman - He was on a historical pace last year and he regressed in the second half. I expect "the second half" Freeman this year. I expect Coleman to be more involved as well. People will draft Freeman early based on his unrealistic first half. IMO he may have the most overvalued ADP of any fantasy player. I don't even think I'd have him as a top 10 RB.

Doug Martin - I just can't get on board with Doug Martin. He is so inconsistent, you just never know which Doug Martin will show up. Seems like every other year he alternates between being great and awful. I don't like that Sims cut into a lot of his snaps last year as well. I think near the end of the season, Martin was only on the field for about 60% of the snaps.

Matt Forte - People will draft Forte high based on name recognition and past history. He is on a new team that has many more weapons than his previous team. That and the Jets are expected to use Forte in a RBBC approach with Powell and Khiry Robinson. I actually think Bilal Powell will be the better fantasy player. Forte will likely produce as a RB3 this year.

Thomas Rawls - I hate to put him here, but I have to. Our backfield looks like it could be headed towards a RBBC with Rawls, CMike and whoever wins the 3rd down role. I'm not using a 2nd round pick on a player in a committee. I'd much rather take a workhorse like Latavius Murray or Gore 2-3 rounds later.

WR

TY Hilton - I've never been a fan of TY in fantasy. To put it simple, he is too boom-or-bust for me. He may win you some fantasy games, but he will likely lose you some fantasy games too.

Doug Baldwin - IMO Baldwin fits the Devonta Freeman mold. His run last year is due for regression. It just isn't sustainable, hence all the records he broke last year. While I think he will have a good year, I don't see him as anything more than a WR2. I just think you can get similar production in later rounds. As good as Doug is, he should regress.

TE

I don't really hate any. The position is pretty "meh" after the first few guys.

 

[kearly]

Good topic.


Love


QB


Aaron Rodgers. 3rd round.

My pick for MVP in 2016. Rodgers has his weapons back healthy and in shape. He also faces both the easiest schedule by SoS and also the most favorable fantasy schedule in the NFL. If he slips to the end of the 3rd round, he's a good player to target, depending on who's still left.

Russell Wilson. 4th round.

Despite only playing well for half of last season, Wilson still finished 3rd in fantasy for the second year in a row. And here's the fun part, it's only NOW that Russell's fantasy value is truly kicking into gear. If Wilson stays healthy all year, he could easily vault to the #1 QB spot. And since the #1 QB is worth a LOT of points over replacement level, that makes Wilson a "league winner" pick.

Making things even better, Wilson is under-valued and going in the 4th round. In my draft simulations there is a huge dropoff at WR and RB in round 4, meaning that it's way easier to pull the trigger on Wilson in round 4 than it is for Newton/Rodgers in round 3.

Carson Palmer. 7th round.

Age and injury concerns push Palmer down into the early-mid rounds. I've gotten him as late as the 7th round. Palmer is coming off a huge fantasy season (5th, despite missing time) and has an even more favorable schedule than he did last year. He will also get to enjoy throwing a lot of passes to David Johnson this year.

Tom Brady. 7th round.

He'll miss the first four games against mostly easy opponents which is unfortunate. However, when he comes back you can fully expect him to be "pissed off" Tom Brady, and he'll have the best array of weapons since in 2007. Really good player to get for the fantasy playoffs. Only knock on this pick is that Brady travels to Denver in week 15 in the cold and elevation against the NFL's nastiest defense last season... not something that's ideal for a fantasy playoff game.

Kirk Cousins. 10th-13th round.

When you wait a LONG time to select your QB, all you really want is a guy that you can trust to keep you competitive with a top 12 performance. I think Cousins has the upside of a top 5 fantasy player based on his breakout last season, but even if he falls back to earth, he should be a safe top 12 QB pick. Cousins has a chance to be one of the biggest steals of the draft, and oddly he's one of the final QBs to be drafted in leagues. Whenever I do a mock draft where I wait on a QB, I find myself drafting Cousins every single time.


RB


Ezekiel Elliot. 1st-2nd round

It's risky trusting a rookie RB, but you know that if healthy Elliot is going to see 300 carries this year which means that even if he only averaged 4.0 yards per carry with that kind of workload he'd be a top 5 lock in fantasy. Even if Elliot gets hurt or gets benched, his handcuff (Darren McFadden) is one of the better handcuffs in football. It could be argued that Melvin Gordon is a cautionary tale for rookie RBs, but if you drafted Gordon and his handcuff, Woodhead, you were still pretty happy. Gordon was an epic bust, but Woodhead finished 11th in fantasy. McFadden himself finished 13th last year.

Jamaal Charles. 2nd round

Charles was on pace for one of the best seasons in HISTORY before his season ending injury last year. His RB handcuffs are some of the very best in the NFL. Even if Charles goes down again, as long as you have the right handcuff, you can pencil the Chiefs lead running back for a top 10 performance. If Charles plays 15+ games, he's a lock to finish #1, IMO. Charles has played in 15+ games in six of his eight NFL seasons. I would happily take Charles #1 overall if I felt I had to, but I'm getting him easily in the 2nd round in every mock. It's amazing value, provided that you make sure to get Spencer Ware later.

LeVeon Bell. 2nd round

I've never gushed about Bell's physicality, I think he's Shaun Alexander 2.0, more production than talent. But the Steelers running game is pretty incredible and Bell might as well be shorthand for bellcow in that running game. He's going to miss some games at the start of the year but similar to Charles, you can expect his handcuff (DeAngelo Williams) to give you top 10 RB production while Bell is out.

Eddie Lacy. 2nd-3rd round

I watched his preseason game, and Lacy still has a belly. So he's not quite as trim as some pictures earlier this offseason would leave you to believe. Lacy's current level of fitness is roughly comparable to LaGarrett Blount. Normally I would stay away from an over-weight RB, especially with an early pick, but considering Green Bay's offense and blessed schedule, they'll be leading constantly all season long, which means an easy 300+ carries for Lacy if he stays healthy.

Thomas Rawls. 3rd round

He's the steal of the draft if he stays healthy, providing Jamaal Charles-lite level of play and production. Christine Michael has emerged as a fantastic handcuff as well, which has amazingly dropped Rawls ADP value when in reality it actually makes Rawls a better pick since Michael as a handcuff makes the Rawls pick far less risky.

I seriously doubt we go RBBC. Rawls was THE BEST RB IN THE NFL last season by the advanced efficiency metrics, and Seattle's offense hit a higher plane when Rawls was in there. Michael was good when he played, but there was an obvious dropoff in the run game when the team went from Rawls to Michael. I could see Seattle easing Rawls into his touches early in the season, but by the end of the year I expect Rawls to get plenty of work on gamedays.

Mark Ingram. 3rd round

Ingram isn't a steal. He's finished 15th two years in a row and that's about where I'd figure him to finish this year. This is fair value. The reason I list him is because he's one of the safest RBs this year given the security of his role and the quality of his play to the eyeball test. And after he leaves the board, the RB options get dicey. Ingram is the last RB in the draft that I would trust as a starter.

Danny Woodhead. 8th round

This guy isn't a conventional RB, but he just finds a way to get production every single year. Almost every year he finishes as a solid #2 RB, while going in the same rounds as backups and projects. He's a great value get every year, don't let his lack of sex appeal and upside trick you into avoiding him. Also, Woodhead seems to get his numbers irregardless of how successful San Diego's #1 RB performs. So even if Gordon has a breakout year, Woodhead will probably still have good numbers anyway.

Kenneth Dixon. 8th round

I wish I could get him a lot later, but Dixon is to me clearly the best back on the Ravens, a team that is known for running the football. He will likely face the same rookie path that David Johnson suffered, where he has to backup inferior RBs before finally getting his shot late in the year. If you are patient enough to stash a RB all season, Dixon is the guy to target. If he catches a break and gets the starting job at some point, he could come up huge in the fantasy playoffs for your team.


WR


Allen Robinson. 2nd round

Jacksonville's pass offense will regress to the mean ever so slightly. But Allen Robinson will be just fine. Dude's a stud.

Jordy Nelson. 2nd round

I wish I could get him a little later, especially with his health being a question in TC. That said, every time I've drafted this guy he's been a monster for me. As mentioned previously, the Packers have been blessed by the schedule gods, much like the Panthers were last year.

Brandon Marshall. 2nd round

Fitzmagic is back. I think Marshall has one more big year left him him.

TY Hilton. 3rd round

He took a step back last year, like much of his team. That said, it was a cursed year for the Colts offense, and they currently are one of the NFL's most obvious bounceback teams. If the offense bounces back, Hilton will resume his previous career trajectory as a steady #1 WR. Even with all the issues he had last year, he still finished the year as a low end #2 WR. So his risk isn't even all that high.

Demaryius Thomas. 3rd round

Thomas has been a fantasy stud for years. Last year he suffered through arguably the worst QB situation in the NFL, but still finished 12th in fantasy. Good enough to remain a fringe #1 WR. There are other good receivers going in the 3rd round too, but Thomas strikes as the one with the highest floor and maybe a high ceiling if the Broncos get lucky at QB this year.

Eric Decker. 4th-5th round

Decker is a bit TD dependent, but throwing TD's hasn't been a huge issue for Fitzmagic. WIth Ivory leaving town and being replaced by a receiving back in Matt Forte, you can probably expect the Jets to actually increase the number of TDs they score through the air. Decker produced #1 WR numbers last year. If he can maintain his TDs, he'll do it again. That makes him a good value where he's currently going.

Randall Cobb. 4th-5th round

This one is tricky because I've never been the biggest fan of Cobb's game, and I thought his 2014 fantasy performance was an enormous fluke. However, the schedule gods have smiled on Green Bay this year and with Jordy healthy, there's going to be a lot of wide open looks for Cobb in 2016.

Doug Baldwin. 4th-5th round

Ok. Ready for a mind-blowing fact? In one of the best WR fantasy years EVER, Doug Baldwin finished 7th in scoring. And he did it in essentially half a season. No WR in the NFL was worth even close to as many fantasy points as Doug was in the 2nd half of the year.

Obviously, some of that is TD luck which is an obvious area of regression. But we can't only look at the negatives, there are positives as well. Yes, Baldwin probably won't score 12 TDs in 8 weeks again. But can he score 8 TDs in 16 weeks? That seems very reasonable to me.

If Wilson continues to throw like he did in the second half of last year, and Baldwin continues to be the Jordy Nelson type mind-reader that dominates Wilson's targets, then it's reasonable to expect 1200+ yards from Baldwin. 1200 / 8 TDs would be borderline #1 WR numbers last year. Is Baldwin worth a 1st round pick? No. But he's a steal in the 4th or 5th round, where his biggest competition are receivers like Jarvis Landry and Jeremy Maclin.

So yes, Doug Baldwin's production will almost certainly regress to some degree in 2016. However, it seems like almost the entire world has failed to realize that this regression is already baked into his ADP. Based on the estimates above I think there is a strong case to be made that Baldwin's current ADP is a negative over-reaction to his upcoming regression and that his real value is probably somewhere around the 3rd round.

Donte Moncrief. 5th-6th round

While the rest of the Colts offense was crapping their pants in 2015, Moncrief actually took a step forward and flirted with his first 1000 yard season. He enters 2016 as the clear #2 WR on a team that is poised to throw 600+ times. Moncrief is incredibly talented physically and is rounding out his game as a receiver. He's a slight risk, but the upside is immense especially for a pick this late.

Michael Crabtree and Allen Hurns. 7th-8th round

Both these guys are low ceiling, high floor, but they are also very likely to end the year as viable #3 receivers which makes them outstanding insurance options as #4 guys. Definitely worth considering especially if you rolled the dice at WR previously in the draft (Moncrief, Watkins, etc). Also, a fact that seems to go unnoticed by many is that Crabtree actually outperformed Amari Cooper in fantasy last season. Cooper will likely over-take Crabtree this year, but it's really more of a 1A / 1B situation there and Carr throws a lot of passes to both of them.

Marvin Jones. 7th-8th round

Team observers are already saying that Jones and Tate are looking like co-number one receivers in the Lions passing game. Few QBs in the NFL throw more passes than Stafford, and while Stafford is allergic to the end zone, you can probably expect his main two receivers to rack up a crapton of targets and catches. Not only that, but Jones has actually been a fringe fantasy starter the past two years while playing in Cincy despite being a #3 receiver in an offense that passes less than Detroit. Jones isn't a great talent, but he might not need to be to finish as a top 20 receiver this year. I find myself taking Jones in almost every mock draft due to his insane value potential.


TE


Gronk. 1st round.

He'll have a down year this season thanks to 4 games of Jimmy G, but with TE being such a wasteland in 2016 he's still a worthwhile pick in the late 1st round.

Jordan Reed. 3rd round.

I've been avoiding Reed simply because his risk is too great and the alternatives are too good, however, he could easily finish as the #1 TE if he plays 16 games, which would make him a league winner type pick.

Greg Olsen. 4th round.

Not sexy, but he's good and safe in a year where good safe TEs are extremely rare.

Delanie Walker. 6th round.

I sometimes find myself targeting this guy. He quietly finished tied with Greg Olsen for 4th in fantasy last season and was top ten the year before that. He's been Marcus Mariota's go to guy. He's 32 years old but we've seen older TE's have great success in this league. If you don't get a TE by this point in the draft, you'll be sifting through the waiver wire during the season hunting for one, almost guaranteed.

Tyler Eifert. 6th round.

I would definitely take a chance on his talent if I thought he would be healthy. But as things stand right now, I don't think he'll be healthy this year.

Gary Barnidge. 8th round.

While on the surface Barnidge seems like a chemistry dependent player, the truth is that he remained a fairly good fantasy TE last year irregardless of who his QB was.

Antonio Gates. 12th round.

My favorite TE value in the draft by far. Gates is old but so what? His game was always about jump ball skills and chemistry, not speed. The last time he had Wisenhunt as OC, he had a monster year. He's risky though, and depending on how good you feel about having a black hole at TE, you might want to invest in TE earlier.


D/ST


Arizona. 9th round.

They play a favorable schedule and seem to be an elite D/ST every season. They are my current favorite to finish #1 for fantasy scoring given their schedule advantage, turnover driven defense, and elite level P/K returners. They are currently the 3rd defense off the board in most leagues. I love the value in round 9.

Fantasy experts will always tell you to wait on a defense but I generally think that is bad advice, particularly if you can identify a difference making defense at a reasonable price. Even if Arizona's defense somehow bombed, so what? You can go on the waiver wire and find a top 12 fantasy defense pretty easily, and most other picks in the 9th round bomb anyway (And I definitely don't expect this pick to bomb, if anything it is the safest pick in the back half of the draft).

 

[kearly]

Hate


QB


None.


RB


DeVonta Freeman. 1st-2nd round.

As someone who drafted Freeman late each of the past two years, I can say that I've always liked his potential. But even as a fan of his, it's obvious that his 2015 performance was a massive fluke. Further, it seems like the Falcons offense is now trending in the wrong direction. And take it for what it's worth, but Freeman looked abysmal in preseason week 1.

Latavius Murray. 3rd-4th round.

Murray is a good value on paper for where he's going, if theoretically he reproduced last year's counting stats again. However, after watching him last season and watching his two backups in the preseason, I'm already convinced that Murray is the 3rd most talented RB on his own team. Those backs are going to eat into his carries, and they might outright steal his job. It's hard for me to imagine Murray getting 307 touches again this season.

Almost any RB drafted after round 3.

So many bad RBs on bad running games that are going in rounds 4-5 just because they are starting NFL RBs. Even the good ones, such as Mathews and Lewis, are too injury prone to trust as anything more than #3 backs.

Washington, Detroit and Chicago RBs.

One of the reasons I am pretty high on Cousins is because I think he's going to be throwing a ton given the sorry state of their running game, which was one of the worst in the NFL last season. Their best fantasy RB is Chris Thompson, who's essentially a Danny Woodhead type. Matt Jones sure did look amazing in his first game last year, but he has collapsed since then. He needs to lose some weight and then learn how to hold onto the football. Detroit has some marginal talent at RB, but simply don't have the scheme and supporting personnel to make those RBs productive. Chicago is just a mess and has probably the NFL's least talented RB group.

Mostly, I hate this year's RB group for the most part, with a few shining exceptions early. Which is why my best drafts by far have been ones where I lead off RB-RB, especially if I start the draft in the back half of round 1.


WR


Amari Cooper. Round 2-3.

I drafted Cooper in the 4th round last year and ended up benching him by the end of the season. I think he is a good WR, but I no longer view him as a true #1. To me he has roughly the same value as his teammate Michael Crabtree, and Crabtree is going way, way later.

Brandin Cooks. Round 2-3.

Part of this opinion is that I don't see Cooks as a monster talent, I see him as being an ace deep ball guy who is okay at everything else, kind of like a poor man's TY Hilton. But that said, Cooks actually did live up to his fantasy ADP last season and he could very well do so again in 2016. The only reason I barely mention him here is that I think that Saints offense is going to have a lot of mouths to feed with Snead and Thomas coming on very strong as #2 and #3 WRs. And don't forget about Fleener either. Ingram and Spiller are still going to be catching a lot of passes.

While I think Cooks will remain the go-to guy on deep routes, he may only be the 2nd or 3rd read on everything else. I feel like his upside is limited for this reason, and his floor is a little lower than I'd like for a receiver taken this early.

Sammy Watkins, Round 3.

I like Watkins talent and I like his trajectory. He could go off if the Buffalo run game collapses this year, which is certainly possible given the current abundance of red flags. However, I also feel that Watkins is essentially a riskier version of Doug Baldwin, while going about 1-2 rounds earlier than Baldwin does. I would love to gamble on Watkins upside in round 5, but he's going off the board well before then.

Tyler Lockett, round 7.

Lockett is a great football player in what should be a great offense. But whereas Doug Baldwin's targets and production erupted in the 2nd half of last season, Lockett was never targeted more than 7 times in any game and was totally touchdown dependent for fantasy production. If you pro-rated Lockett's 2nd half production over a full season, he would have still been well short of 1000 yards and you'll have to forgive me for thinking that he probably won't be a 10 TD receiver with his build.

There are times I wonder if Lockett is the most talented receiver on the Seahawks, but even if he is, it would take him years to overcome Doug Baldwin as Wilson's go to guy given the immense chemistry Wilson and Baldwin have fostered.

I think a good forecast for Lockett this season is for him to be Emmanuel Sanders-lite. Decent yardage, moderate touchdowns. Starter upside, but not without risk. There are a handful of receivers going after him who's fantasy production floor is about as high as Lockett's likely sophomore ceiling.

That doesn't mean that Lockett is bad, but I do think he is being a bit overhyped right now. Kind of reminds me of the hype that John Brown enjoyed for years, though in fairness to Brown he did actually deliver a starter worthy fantasy season last year.


TE


Pretty much all of the ones not listed on the love section. Maybe the 2016 season throws us a curve ball, but as things stand right now the TE position looks pretty bad right now outside of a handful of guys.

 

[Ozzy]

Great stuff guys. If I have time later I'll write my thoughts as well.

 

[kearly]

I'm actually starting to soften my stance a bit on Lockett. Not because my opinion of his production has changed- I think he's a low end #3 fantasy WR - but because he doesn't seem to go as early as the draft experts have him. In almost every draft I've done, Lockett is sitting there in round 7 while all the best round 8 WRs have already been reached for and taken. So for this reason, I've actually drafted Lockett quite a few times now.

John Brown is in the same boat. He's not going as high as the draft experts have him and he keeps being the ugly duckling that nobody reaches for.