John and Pete are losing me

[Appyhawk]

If John and Pete can now find a way to get Clowney back on board I'll be right back to my usual John and Pete lovin self.

 

[TwistedHusky]

One small point, a 1st this year is probably not the same as a 1st any other year.

So realistically we probably traded 1.5 1sts instead of 2. Because a 1st this year is worth maybe half a normal year.

Why?

Because they will not be able to properly evaluate 1sts this next draft. Competition will be constrained. Opportunities to bring kids in and work them out will probably be less. Some of the guys would have normally risen to the top in a typical year won't.

There is going to be more uncertainty this year than any other. And, for the most part, 1sts come at a premium because there is LESS uncertainty with them. Why not trade a 1st with the premium bolted in, because you are getting that uncertainty regardless.

(BTW if the season gets cancelled, anyone know what happens? Do the Bengals just get another #1 overall pick? Something else? Anyone know?)

There are going to be a greater # of 1sts that would have slid, because GMs are going to be stuck looking at pedigree and optics instead of on-field productions (since those will be skewed). A fair number of 1sts would have likely been lower round picks anyway. Might as well trade out of that for an almost sure thing with an All-Pro.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Very good points ^

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I think two things are going on here;

1. I think John and Pete see their marriage as maybe another 3-5 years at most, combine that with Russell's window of being an elite QB and I think they both see a sense of urgency to win, and win NOW.

2. Covid. With the college season being up in the air, or even fully cancelled come fall, Pete and John see 1st round picks as DRASTICALLY discounted for the next year or two because there's just no way there's going to be enough tape and games to properly evaluate and scout.

So their reasoning on this trade is we have a chance to get an elite top 10 league talent for two devalued first rounders in order to stack this team as much as possible to win now.

I'm OK with that reasoning.

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

I think two things are going on here;

1. I think John and Pete see their marriage as maybe another 3-5 years at most, combine that with Russell's window of being an elite QB and I think they both see a sense of urgency to win, and win NOW.

2. Covid. With the college season being up in the air, or even fully cancelled come fall, Pete and John see 1st round picks as DRASTICALLY discounted for the next year or two because there's just no way there's going to be enough tape and games to properly evaluate and scout.

So their reasoning on this trade is we have a chance to get an elite top 10 league talent for two devalued first rounders in order to stack this team as much as possible to win now.

I'm OK with that reasoning.

Totally agree.

Who cares about the first round pick next year if college football is cancelled?

Scouting will be pointless for next year.

 

[Jville]

I think two things are going on here;

1. I think John and Pete see their marriage as maybe another 3-5 years at most, combine that with Russell's window of being an elite QB and I think they both see a sense of urgency to win, and win NOW.

2. Covid. With the college season being up in the air, or even fully cancelled come fall, Pete and John see 1st round picks as DRASTICALLY discounted for the next year or two because there's just no way there's going to be enough tape and games to properly evaluate and scout.

So their reasoning on this trade is we have a chance to get an elite top 10 league talent for two devalued first rounders in order to stack this team as much as possible to win now.

I'm OK with that reasoning.

Totally agree.

Who cares about the first round pick next year if college football is cancelled?

Scouting will be pointless for next year.

Legacy draft value charts can be moved to the archives and placed on the that's the way it was shelf.

 

[BigMeach]

I think two things are going on here;

1. I think John and Pete see their marriage as maybe another 3-5 years at most, combine that with Russell's window of being an elite QB and I think they both see a sense of urgency to win, and win NOW.

2. Covid. With the college season being up in the air, or even fully cancelled come fall, Pete and John see 1st round picks as DRASTICALLY discounted for the next year or two because there's just no way there's going to be enough tape and games to properly evaluate and scout.

So their reasoning on this trade is we have a chance to get an elite top 10 league talent for two devalued first rounders in order to stack this team as much as possible to win now.

I'm OK with that reasoning.

There is actually a quote from JS being interviewed by Peter King about the trade. Peter King asks him toward the end of the interview about college football and the draft next year. Peter mentions no gm has been able to give him an answer on what they'll do if college is played in the spring. JS immediately says "I don't know, trade your 1st and 3rd that year?"

If ya'll don't think that this is our FO playing chess when everyone else is playing checkers you aren't paying attention.

On top of that, if we just went value to value, the 6th pick of the draft this year with a high 4th rounder the next year is worth the same or more as a late 1st and 3rd this year, and a late 1st next year (at least according to the draft points chart). Obviously that isn't to say that Adams is a current draft pick, but one could make the argument he is more valuable because the 6th pick of the draft could still flop (anyone for Curry?) AND he's a two time pro bowler, 2019 #37 and 2020 #27 top 100 player, and an all pro at age 24. He can rush the passer VERY well, can cover well, tackles well, has an insane football IQ, diagnoses plays as fast as Bobby/Earl, and he's a dog who is going to elevate the players around him.

How anyone looks at this trade and thinks the Seahawks got shafted or were dumb is baffling to me. It's like you're just not paying attention to the times we are in right now and the uncertainty of ANY draft coming up.

I'll say it again, the Hawks are playing Chess while everyone else is playing Checkers and a lot of naysayers on this board are getting check mated wondering why the king can move onto both colored squares.

 

[Ozzy]

I was initially shocked at the price but after listening to JS talk about it on Peter Kings pod it makes complete sense. This allows them to go back to playing multiple schemes, helps the pass rush, allows Diggs to do what he does best and will add 5-10 sacks to the line because coverage will hold longer. What is being overlooked is that if helps the dline. When you’re picking at the bottom of the first for 7-8 years in a row it’s hard to get elite game changing talent and you need it. Adams instantly makes this defense instantly much, much better.

 

[Uncle Si]

Also, didn't Adams have more sacks last year than any of our players?

Because our DL was league-worst. If it stays that way, Adams isn't going to help it. We need something on the order of 20 additional sacks, not 6.

2 things here:

His ability in coverage will lead to more sacks.

The increase in short passing routes and LOS patterns across the league make sack totals a little irrelevant compared to the past.

Doesn't make it a good/great trade, but it does address specific needs.

Personally, I like the trade, similar to what Austin said above.

 

[jammerhawk]

What a load of negativity the usual posters are offloading in this thread.

To me it's clear the team has wanted to find replacements for aging and injured safeties and have been for the most part unsuccessful. They have drafted players with potential but with perhaps insufficient playing foot speed and their rookies have not developed as expected. Cedric Thompson was an instinctively solid DB but was too slow, as well it's clear that Lano Hill is also too slow to be as effective as desired. Were those picks fails? Perhaps they were, but they were part of a determined attempt to find the guys they want to play the scheme they want to play. I remain curious about Blair who has potential but poor discipline and needs to be more disciplined in his coverage or he too will be potentially regarded as a draft mistake. Acquiring a legitimate All Pro S is something they believed they needed to do, it's OK to disagree but an honest assessment would reveal the dropoff in defensive performance is directly related to the dropoff in S play. Adams is just 24 and has been a Pro Bowl player for 2 of 3 seasons in the league, he to them is a keystone piece that allows the team to return to defensive superiority. I think he was an expensive addition but let's assess what the costs would have been to trade up for a player that wasn't as yet proven as Adams certainly has demonstrated? I like the trade, but would still like to see some DLine additions.

The only genuine mistake in drafting they've made was McDowell, and that was for pure character reasons. They clearly should have been alert to the potential of 'issues' arising from his character but could never have anticipated he'd never play a down because of a career ending head injury caused by his own patent stupidity. At present I doubt that it is remotely fair to write off Collier just yet and am happily encouraged by their draft picks this season. it's easy to throw rocks and reflect back upon shoulda, woulda, coulda type thinking but this year's player voted top 100 shows the present team with 6 top 100 players in their starting group.

To me this FO is still doing their job better than has ever been done here before. They field a competitive squad every season that annually makes the playoffs. They have corrected a cap crunch that could have been limiting going forward. They have a franchise QB, MLB, & SS, a quality LT, and FS, potentially 3 good CBs, a strong running RB corps, at least two very good WRs with the possibility of more. Their TE group is one with a lot of potential that could be exceptional. They have the cap space to still make moves if deemed necessary. We will see if those moves are needed or if their younger players can show improvement.

It's easy to be critical when you are watching, and perhaps are biased by mediots who pretend to know more than two proven personnel managers and a quality coaching staff. Look at their result and compare to those team around the league that are not always drafting 24th or worse each season. The FO is doing a darn good job to my mind.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

What a load of negativity the usual posters are offloading in this thread.

To me it's clear the team has wanted to find replacements for aging and injured safeties and have been for the most part unsuccessful. They have drafted players with potential but with perhaps insufficient playing foot speed and their rookies have not developed as expected. Cedric Thompson was an instinctively solid DB but was too slow, as well it's clear that Lano Hill is also too slow to be as effective as desired. Were those picks fails? Perhaps they were, but they were part of a determined attempt to find the guys they want to play the scheme they want to play. I remain curious about Blair who has potential but poor discipline and needs to be more disciplined in his coverage or he too will be potentially regarded as a draft mistake. Acquiring a legitimate All Pro S is something they believed they needed to do, it's OK to disagree but an honest assessment would reveal the dropoff in defensive performance is directly related to the dropoff in S play. Adams is just 24 and has been a Pro Bowl player for 2 of 3 seasons in the league, he to them is a keystone piece that allows the team to return to defensive superiority. I think he was an expensive addition but let's assess what the costs would have been to trade up for a player that wasn't as yet proven as Adams certainly has demonstrated? I like the trade, but would still like to see some DLine additions.

The only genuine mistake in drafting they've made was McDowell, and that was for pure character reasons. They clearly should have been alert to the potential of 'issues' arising from his character but could never have anticipated he'd never play a down because of a career ending head injury caused by his own patent stupidity. At present I doubt that it is remotely fair to write off Collier just yet and am happily encouraged by their draft picks this season. it's easy to throw rocks and reflect back upon shoulda, woulda, coulda type thinking but this year's player voted top 100 shows the present team with 6 top 100 players in their starting group.

To me this FO is still doing their job better than has ever been done here before. They field a competitive squad every season that annually makes the playoffs. They have corrected a cap crunch that could have been limiting going forward. They have a franchise QB, MLB, & SS, a quality LT, and FS, potentially 3 good CBs, a strong running RB corps, at least two very good WRs with the possibility of more. Their TE group is one with a lot of potential that could be exceptional. They have the cap space to still make moves if deemed necessary. We will see if those moves are needed or if their younger players can show improvement.

It's easy to be critical when you are watching, and perhaps are biased by mediots who pretend to know more than two proven personnel managers and a quality coaching staff. Look at their result and compare to those team around the league that are not always drafting 24th or worse each season. The FO is doing a darn good job to my mind.

It's also easy to be critical when you have one of the statistically worst defenses in the NFL.

 

[jammerhawk]

That's true and when the pass D has dropped off the charts from being elite to being simply inadequate you fix the pass D by either acquiring a pass rush or improving the DBs or both.

JS acquired Dunbar and then Dunbar got damnably stupid, leaving the team up in air with a Commish suspension. JS apparently knowing this then improved the S group by adding Adams a proven elite player. Both players were at or near the top of their respective positions last season. They've been trying to fix the pass rush as well w/o present success, drafts, trades, and FA. If they had paid Clark then they'd have had a cap crunch still. Respectfully, I think they approached this situation properly and we will see about Clowney, Griffen, Ngokue, or ? being added before the end of the preseason.

The pass rush is still a work in progress but you'd have to think JS/PC are not done yet.

I wonder what the neg Nellies will say if the team re-acquires Clowney or Griffen, and Dunbar is successful with his suspension appeal? It's early days yet.

 

[Jville]

This thread serves a purpose ........... for venting.

Not everyone is on the same page with Pete and John. So it is common to come across fans who find themselves lost and caught up in negative narratives.

Clearly, Jody Allen is not among those lost souls.

Unfolding events confirm that Pete Carroll and John Schneider continue to enjoy Jody Allen's support and trust.

I find comfort in the management and future of these Seattle Seahawks.

 

[AgentDib]

It's also easy to be critical when you have one of the statistically worst defenses in the NFL.

Whether something is easy doesn't seem like the right metric here. Looking at just the 2019 defense with blinders on about the rest of the team, other seasons, or personnel factors is a very narrow view. The only reason I can see for intentionally choosing that particular very narrow viewpoint is to skew the overall picture.

The only genuine mistake in drafting they've made was McDowell, and that was for pure character reasons. They clearly should have been alert to the potential of 'issues' arising from his character but could never have anticipated he'd never play a down because of a career ending head injury caused by his own patent stupidity.

In my view McDowell is clearly a case of bad luck. Taking players with question marks surrounding them is a good strategy for getting value out of lower picks, and I think them "readjusting" that view in 2018 to instead take a very safe player in Penny was the actual mistake.

 

[jammerhawk]

Where I disagree with that is the team has been pretty solid in picking good RBs, Penny has been an exception so far, but has the 'health excuse'. Besides he's had his exceptional moments, as few as they have been. He may in time prove to be a quality late 1st round addition. Fingers are crossed.

McDowell was a pure bust, and for sure the team was flat out unlucky with him. However, he had all sorts of poor character flags which rendered him a high risk pick. In the end I agree with your assessment of risk to potential reward, but when things go bad you had evidence the pick was high risk and are forced to eat your mistake.

It's clear I agree totally with Jville.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Looking at just the 2019 defense with blinders on about the rest of the team, other seasons, or personnel factors is a very narrow view.

So pointing out that a team has one of the league's worst defenses is a "very narrow view".

It's half the team, Dib.

 

[jammerhawk]

The defence is where the $ and picks were spent this off season and there is likely more to come.

 

[bmorepunk]

What a load of negativity the usual posters are offloading in this thread.

To me it's clear the team has wanted to find replacements for aging and injured safeties and have been for the most part unsuccessful. They have drafted players with potential but with perhaps insufficient playing foot speed and their rookies have not developed as expected. Cedric Thompson was an instinctively solid DB but was too slow, as well it's clear that Lano Hill is also too slow to be as effective as desired. Were those picks fails? Perhaps they were, but they were part of a determined attempt to find the guys they want to play the scheme they want to play. I remain curious about Blair who has potential but poor discipline and needs to be more disciplined in his coverage or he too will be potentially regarded as a draft mistake. Acquiring a legitimate All Pro S is something they believed they needed to do, it's OK to disagree but an honest assessment would reveal the dropoff in defensive performance is directly related to the dropoff in S play. Adams is just 24 and has been a Pro Bowl player for 2 of 3 seasons in the league, he to them is a keystone piece that allows the team to return to defensive superiority. I think he was an expensive addition but let's assess what the costs would have been to trade up for a player that wasn't as yet proven as Adams certainly has demonstrated? I like the trade, but would still like to see some DLine additions.

The only genuine mistake in drafting they've made was McDowell, and that was for pure character reasons. They clearly should have been alert to the potential of 'issues' arising from his character but could never have anticipated he'd never play a down because of a career ending head injury caused by his own patent stupidity. At present I doubt that it is remotely fair to write off Collier just yet and am happily encouraged by their draft picks this season. it's easy to throw rocks and reflect back upon shoulda, woulda, coulda type thinking but this year's player voted top 100 shows the present team with 6 top 100 players in their starting group.

To me this FO is still doing their job better than has ever been done here before. They field a competitive squad every season that annually makes the playoffs. They have corrected a cap crunch that could have been limiting going forward. They have a franchise QB, MLB, & SS, a quality LT, and FS, potentially 3 good CBs, a strong running RB corps, at least two very good WRs with the possibility of more. Their TE group is one with a lot of potential that could be exceptional. They have the cap space to still make moves if deemed necessary. We will see if those moves are needed or if their younger players can show improvement.

It's easy to be critical when you are watching, and perhaps are biased by mediots who pretend to know more than two proven personnel managers and a quality coaching staff. Look at their result and compare to those team around the league that are not always drafting 24th or worse each season. The FO is doing a darn good job to my mind.

It's also easy to be critical when you have one of the statistically worst defenses in the NFL.

They could rarely hold the field when it mattered. They had plenty of offense last year; this team could have put up 35 points a game and basically be in the same situation because they just let the other team score seemingly at will. Example of how this works is the 2018 Chiefs.

 

[AgentDib]

So pointing out that a team has one of the league's worst defenses is a "very narrow view".

The thread is about Pete and John's overall merits. I agree our 2019 defense was bad, but if you want to break it down by units then talking about the performance of just that unit is 1/30th (10 seasons * 3 units) of their tenure here. There's a lot of banked evidence that they have an excellent understanding of how to put together an NFL defense, and they have attempted to address it this off-season by bringing in a top corner, top safety, and spending the #27 and #40 on defense.

It's certainly worth discussing why our defense was abnormally bad last year, but using it as a single sentence summation of the FO just strikes me as misleading.

Where I disagree with that is the team has been pretty solid in picking good RBs, Penny has been an exception so far, but has the 'health excuse'. Besides he's had his exceptional moments, as few as they have been. He may in time prove to be a quality late 1st round addition. Fingers are crossed.

Just to be clear, I'm not arguing that Penny is a bust (yet). John has been public recently about how the decision to draft Penny was in part due to how safe of a pick he looked like with an excellent health report from the docs and huge college production with no injuries. Having Penny get injured multiple times in the NFL is bad luck of a sort, but I think it's also an example of why taking the "safe" option is usually a mistake, because there is no such thing as safe when it comes to NFL rookies.

What decision makers are actually doing in this situations is adding a risk cap to their process when they should be chasing value regardless of risk. In a bricklayer vs. gladiator situation with only one winner at the end it's important to be risk seeking the entire way as a bunch of safe decisions may prevent a 5 win season but will also likely never lead to a championship. If we took a McDowell every year then the ones that didn't play a snap in the NFL should be more than offset by those who got it together and became key difference makers. I'm worried they learned the wrong lesson from McDowell.