It's not all about the passer rating

[Ruminator]

Four starting QBs have passer ratings (PR) ranking below average this year, yet their teams have enviable win/loss records, with Bears and Broncos fairly certain to make the playoffs:

1. Caleb Williams: 24th in PR, behind Penix, Murray, and Fields, yet Bears have the best record in the NFC.
2. Brock Purdy: 26th in PR, yet 49ers are 9-4.
3. Bo Nix: 32nd in PR, behind Rattler, yet Broncos are 10-2.
4. Trevor Lawrence: 38th in PR, behind Tyler Shough, Davis Mills, Geno Smith, and Wentz, yet Jaguars are 8-4.

And certain QBs of teams with less impressive win/loss records have much better PRs: Goff (110.2), Dak (102.4), Mahomes (96.5), and Burrow (111.7).

Fun stuff! Sort of.

 

[Ozzy]

Yeah and you can do the same with QBR and other advanced metrics. They're fun and I love using them but they don't tell the whole picture. I know Darnold still ranks at the top or near in efficiency per play which is a great stat too.

 

[flv2]

Passer rating has never meant much. Completion percentage isn't a critical stat and the game situation for INTs is more important than the number of INTs.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

23-6 in the regular the last two seasons for Darnold. I like that stat.

 

[94Smith]

It's a team game

 

[Shane Falco]

Definitely a team game. And a good defense goes a long way.

 

[Sperrydogg]

I think the most important stat is DONT TURN THE EFING BALL OVER

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Wins and losses are by far the most important stat.

 

[keasley45]

23-6 in the regular the last two seasons for Darnold. I like that stat.

0 - 5 in games the Vikes (with Sam) had to have last year (last 2 games) and that were our biggest challenges (with Sam) this year.

0-5...

This year in losses :

Vs the 9ers. 0 TDs, 1 TO
Vs the Bucs. 4 TDs, 1 TO (Bucs D was depleted)
Vs the Rams. 0 TDs, 4TO

Last year vs Detroit week 18 - 0Tds, 0 TOs
Last year vs Rams wildcard - 1Td, 2 TOs

Sam in 'critical games vs strong talent' in those 5 games- 5Tds, 8 TOs

Sam in the 3 games we have had against talented D Units - 4Tds, 6 TOs

His stellar record otherwise, the huge yards to JSN and nice QBR won't matter if he is the '5TD v 8 TO' Darnold when the going gets tough.

 

[keasley45]

The combined record of teams our offense has feasted on this year - 50 and 58 or 46%

The combined record of teams we lost to - 25 and 11 or 70%

The anticipated total record of the teams that will likely make the NFC playoffs - 84 and 35 or 70%

We haven't won a game against a team with a 70% w/l record this year.

Those are the win | loss stats that concern me.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

That's the spirit.

9-3. That's what matters. You're reading way much into this crap, imo.

Go Hawks.

 

[Jegpeg]

As other have said it is a team game but passer rating is not very good at rating QBs against each other.

• It completely ignores fumbles
• If completely ignores running stats
• Yards per attempt and completion percentage are fine but what really matters is getting a new set of downs and these stats ignore where you are.
• ....

What matters is the number of Ws at the end of the season and whether you can win in the post season. 75% win rate is good but up to now we have had a very easy SoS. Like Keasley I am concerned about our chances when we play better teams both in our remained regular season games and in the play-offs.

Another worrying stat. So far this season we have not beaten an NFC team that has more than 4 wins to date.

 

[keasley45]

That's the spirit.

9-3. That's what matters. You're reading way much into this crap, imo.

Go Hawks.

Reading way too much into the facts? Nothing wrong with being optimistic (which I am - I think we can win it all) and realistic about what we have done so far (the record doesn't lie and reflects what we have really done) and concerend (remember those who were voicing concern before the Rams game when we were 7-2 were also encouraged to 'jusy be Happy' while facts said otherwise) at the very obvious negative trends that are evident on offense.

I am a big enough boy to be able hold all of those things at once and still bleed blue and green with the best of them.

'Pom poms' don't look good on me.

 

[Ozzy]

0 - 5 in games the Vikes (with Sam) had to have last year (last 2 games) and that were our biggest challenges (with Sam) this year.

0-5...

This year in losses :

Vs the 9ers. 0 TDs, 1 TO
Vs the Bucs. 4 TDs, 1 TO (Bucs D was depleted)
Vs the Rams. 0 TDs, 4TO

Last year vs Detroit week 18 - 0Tds, 0 TOs
Last year vs Rams wildcard - 1Td, 2 TOs

Sam in 'critical games vs strong talent' in those 5 games- 5Tds, 8 TOs

Sam in the 3 games we have had against talented D Units - 4Tds, 6 TOs

His stellar record otherwise, the huge yards to JSN and nice QBR won't matter if he is the '5TD v 8 TO' Darnold when the going gets tough.

I think there is some context though needed. He played awesome in the Tampa game. He was bad in the Rams game no doubt. What do other guys do against elite defenses? I bet even the best QB's in the league don't light them up as they are at the top for a reason.

Last year playoffs Daniel Jeremiah said one of the games there isn't a QB in history who would've done better as the line got destroyed. The other one he didn't play well sore sure so fair to put that on him.

I don't fault people for not believing or being critical of him in these situations. It's a reasonable take. I just think its a little overblown. But again not saying you guys are wrong I just see it differently.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Reading way too much into the facts? Nothing wrong with being optimistic (which I am - I think we can win it all) and realistic about what we have done so far (the record doesn't lie and reflects what we have really done) and concerend (remember those who were voicing concern before the Rams game when we were 7-2 were also encouraged to 'jusy be Happy' while facts said otherwise) at the very obvious negative trends that are evident on offense.

I am a big enough boy to be able hold all of those things at once and still bleed blue and green with the best of them.

'Pom poms' don't look good on me.

The old me would go there but....no thanks.

Go Hawks. WIN, ugly or not.