Interesting Wilson/Sanchez comparison

[Greenhell]

Meh...we all know who the better QB is currently and into the future. RW! That's my QB!

 

[Galen96]

great read! Thanks!

 

[sc85sis]

Wilson was a four-year starter in college. Sanchez started 16 games. I also think Wilson has an even temperament whereas Mark can be too emotional at times, and that has hurt him.

 

[Happy]

The football outsiders dudes have a formula they've been playing with for a few years that tries to forecast the career success of college quarterbacks coming into the NFL. One of the major factors in the equation is number of games started at the college level. Guys who don't start a lot of games and end up starting in the NFL have a very poor track record apparently.

The biggest question about LCF continues to be the importance of games started. This is still the most important variable in the equation. As I explained in last year's article, any quarterback projection system based on past performance is going to highly value collegiate games started. From 1990 to 2005, it was far and away the most important variable in determining the success of highly-drafted quarterbacks.

And here's what they said about Wilson when they looked at him through the lens of their formula:

The Asterisk

Russell Wilson, Wisconsin: 2,650 DYAR

Important stats: 48 games started, 60.7% completion rate, senior passer rating rose 64.1 points.

I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention the ridiculous projection that the Lewin Career Forecast spits out for Russell Wilson. Yes, that projection is even higher than the one for Robert Griffin. No, it doesn't particularly mean that Wilson is a sleeper prospect. There are a few things going on here that the LCF is just not designed to account for.
First and foremost, the change in Wilson's passer rating between his junior and senior years is insane. Remember that earlier I noted that Griffin had a larger senior year passer rating increase than any quarterback in our data set? Well, Wilson's senior year passer rating increase is 40 percent larger than Griffin's. But does it matter when the quarterback is playing in a completely different offense for a completely different school in his last year of college eligibility? At Wisconsin, Wilson got to pick apart defenses that were concentrating on stopping Montee Ball. At North Carolina State, I doubt opponents were quaking in their boots at the thought of Mustafa Greene and Dean Haynes. It goes without saying that there isn't another quarterback in the LCF data set who transferred between his junior and senior years.

There's also the issue of height, another data point where there's nobody in our data set that can be compared to Wilson. At first, it seems strange that LCF doesn't include a variable to discount short quarterbacks, but when you look at the data set that went into creating LCF the reasons are pretty clear. There's no penalty for being 5-foot-11, like Wilson is, because there are no quarterbacks in the data set who are shorter than 6-foot-0. There's no penalty for being only 6-foot-0 because the two quarterbacks who are 6-foot-0 are Drew Brees and Michael Vick.
Quarterbacks who are Wilson's height simply don't get drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, period. The FO master database only includes three quarterbacks who are below six feet tall: Seneca Wallace, Joe Hamilton, and Flutie. That's a fourth-round pick, a seventh-round pick, and an 11th round pick from 25 years ago. Even if we go all the way back to 1991, the only quarterbacks taken in the first six rounds at 6-foot-0 or shorter were Vick, Brees, Wallace, Joe Germaine (fourth round, 1999), and Troy Smith (fifth round, 2007).
Wilson too will probably be drafted on the third day of the draft, round four or later, which would render his absurdly high LCF moot.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-dr ... ecast-2012

 

[Tech Worlds]

Wilson was a four-year starter in college. Sanchez started 16 games. I also think Wilson has an even temperament whereas Mark can be too emotional at times, and that has hurt him.

Sanchez could and should have stayed in College to gain more experience. In his arrogance, he thought he was ready and he very clearly wasn't.

Wilson definitely has a better temperament, the guy seems completely unflappable. You simply can't coach that kind of thing. What an amazing 3rd round find Wilson truly was!

Sanchez got paid. You bet he made the correct decision.

 

[m0ng0]

Wilson was a four-year starter in college. Sanchez started 16 games. I also think Wilson has an even temperament whereas Mark can be too emotional at times, and that has hurt him.

Sanchez could and should have stayed in College to gain more experience. In his arrogance, he thought he was ready and he very clearly wasn't.

Wilson definitely has a better temperament, the guy seems completely unflappable. You simply can't coach that kind of thing. What an amazing 3rd round find Wilson truly was!

Didn't Pete take some heat when he said Sanchez was not ready?

*edit* and thanks for the article!

 

[Hasselbeck]

I really think the Jets ruined any chance Mark Sanchez had at being a good QB. Pete was right, he should have stayed another year.. but whats done is done.

 

[EastCoastHawksFan]

I was watching the draft that year with a bunch of Jets fans . I remember some mock drafts saying that we draft SANCHEZ , i was about to cry if that happened.

I let everyone that id jump off a cliff if that happen because Sanchez is soo bad .

I was very happy with the Curry pick ( still am , especially bc it meant no Sanchez) Then when the Jets traded up and got sanchez i couldnt stop laughing. its been an ongoing joke ever since.

 

[gargantual]

I really think the Jets ruined any chance Mark Sanchez had at being a good QB. Pete was right, he should have stayed another year.. but whats done is done.

Look dude, we get it, you hate Russell Wilson.....sheesh....

Whaaaaa? Where do you get that from?

I saw no mention of the diminutive one (look who's talkin. I'm just barely 5' 10" meself : )

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I was very happy with the Curry pick ( still am , especially bc it meant no Sanchez) Then when the Jets traded up and got sanchez i couldnt stop laughing. its been an ongoing joke ever since.

I hope you're being somewhat facetious, cause the Curry pick is right up there with McGwire and Mirer for worst picks of all time.

Sanchez is a serviceable QB, and it's not all his fault. He has horrible skill players around him, and has to answer 200 Tebow questions a week.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Ummmm.... the Curry pick didn't set us back nearly as bad as the Jets taking Sanchez that high.

Depends on what you mean by "set back"....cause these were all the players that could have been in a Seattle uniform that year instead of Curry.

- B.J. Raji
- Brian Orakpo
- Brian Cushing
- Clay Matthews
- Brandon Pettigrew
- Eugene Monroe
- Michael Oher

Am I glad we didn't draft Sanchez? Yes, but to say you were relieved that we drafted Curry instead of many other very good players is shortsighted IMO.

 

[gargantual]

I was very happy with the Curry pick ( still am , especially bc it meant no Sanchez) Then when the Jets traded up and got sanchez i couldnt stop laughing. its been an ongoing joke ever since.

I hope you're being somewhat facetious, cause the Curry pick is right up there with McGwire and Mirer for worst picks of all time.

Sanchez is a serviceable QB, and it's not all his fault. He has horrible skill players around him, and has to answer 200 Tebow questions a week.

Ummmm.... the Curry pick didn't set us back nearly as bad as the Jets taking Sanchez that high. Curry wasn't a bad pick based on all of the available data at the time. He was considered by just about everyone to be the surest pick in that draft. Sometimes things just don't work out.

I wonder what sort of things were being said pre-draft about McGwire and Mirer. Was it similar to how highly-touted Curry was, or were there some red flags that weren't noticed or ignored?

 

[Happy]

The top of the 2009 draft was pretty weak and forgettable. Cherry picking 1st round players that did well three years later doesn't change that.

And BJ Raji? c'mon man. He's a 3-4 NT.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I wonder what sort of things were being said pre-draft about McGwire and Mirer. Was it similar to how highly-touted Curry was, or were there some red flags that weren't noticed or ignored?

Mirer was highly touted behind Bledsoe in the 1993 draft, so hard to criticize that pick. But McGwire? From what I remember, pretty much the only person who wanted him was Behring.

.........and yeah Curry was considered the "safest" pick of that draft.

 

[onanygivensunday]

didn't Mirer win OROY his first year? Am I imagining that?

He placed 2nd to Jerome Bettis... but it was all downhill from there.

I was so bummed at the time. He totally lost his confidence.

At least we parlayed Mirer and a 4th round pick (in 1997) in a trade with the Bears to move up in the '97 draft and select Shawn Springs, 3rd pick overall.

EDITED: to correct my misstatement that Mirer won OROY in first rookie season. He placed 2nd.

 

[gargantual]

I wonder what sort of things were being said pre-draft about McGwire and Mirer. Was it similar to how highly-touted Curry was, or were there some red flags that weren't noticed or ignored?

Mirer was highly touted behind Bledsoe in the 1993 draft, so hard to criticize that pick. But McGwire? From what I remember, pretty much the only person who wanted him was Behring.

.........and yeah Curry was considered the "safest" pick of that draft.

And we all know Behring's motives now in retrospect (ie tanking the team to pave the way for moving to LA), so not bad judgement on his part but intentional perhaps? (I don't know a whole lot about that era).

 

[aku]

Wilson's third-down passer rating over the past five games has been 103.4, which ranks fifth in the NFL over that span. That is up from 45.4 over his first four games

This is without a doubt my favorite thing about Wilson. You can actually seei him improving. Too quick to leave the pocket? Fixed. Always goes right instead of forward? Fixed. Putting the balls too high? Fixed. Playing poorly on 3rd down? Fixed. Not hitting the routes on time? As of last week, apparently fixed.

 

[Hawkadeus]

The football outsiders dudes have a formula they've been playing with for a few years that tries to forecast the career success of college quarterbacks coming into the NFL. One of the major factors in the equation is number of games started at the college level. Guys who don't start a lot of games and end up starting in the NFL have a very poor track record apparently.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

And we all know Behring's motives now in retrospect (ie tanking the team to pave the way for moving to LA), so not bad judgement on his part but intentional perhaps? (I don't know a whole lot about that era).

Behring was a Jerry Jones type, he thought his business acumen made him a smart about how to run a football franchise. The problem with Behring was he made his millions as a sleazy used car lot owner, so that's pretty much how he ran the team..........dysfunctional and on the cheap.

Not sure if all this played into your moving the team motive. My guess is he wasn't bright enough to think this way, but I wouldn't put it past his sleazy ass.

 

[mikeak]

I went to look up number of dropped passes by Jets 2009 vs Seahawks. I didn't find the team stats but I found the site below with more stuff broken down than I ever imagined. Pretty neat

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/index.asp

For instance qb rating 1st half - RW number 6th, qb rating 2nd half RW doesnt make the top 20........ wow but then lets break it down further lets look at 4th quarter RW is 13th in the NFL so clearly he just sucks in the 3rd quarter

I realize these stats are over the whole season. I just liked all the different things one could break it down on