Interesting stats for fans down on Geno and/or Russ

[pittpnthrs]

And for the record, we did not win all of those games. We lost two of them, including a first round playoff flop.

They won 6 out of 7 games during that stretch not counting the post season. *shrugs*

 

[SoulfishHawk]

12-4, you guys suck!!!!

 

[McGruff]

They won 6 out of 7 games during that stretch not counting the post season. *shrugs*

Um, I have been arguing from the Giants game on and including the post season loss because going 12-4 and losing in the first round is kind of a big deal

 

[flv2]

I'm not convinced. If a receiver goes the wrong way resulting in an inaccurate pass, was it his fault or the QB's? Does it make a difference if a QB throws an accurate ball into tight coverage that should have never been thrown? Does down and distance make a difference? An inaccurate pass on 3rd down should carry more negative weight than an inaccurate pass on 1st down, should it not?

There's a lot of people out there trying to make a name for themselves by inventing some new way to quantify the sport.

I agree. The raw data is interesting, but without context it's unwise to draw any conclusions. Are throwaways included, how are on target but late passes categorised, are jump balls accurate? More questions than answers.
That said i'd rather my QB had a low % number than a high % number. Congrats, (with an asterisk), to Smith.

 

[hawkfan68]

Here are some more stats - NFL Team Redzone scoring pct (TD only) - https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

In 2021 first year with Waldron/Wilson//Smith - they were #3 NFL at 64.58%. Wilson played in 13 games and Smith played in 3.

In 2022 - with Waldron/Smith - they dropped to #27 at 48.28. The only changes is that RW was traded and Smith became QB1.

In 2023 - Waldron/Smith - they were #26 at 48.15. Slightly worse than 2022 but they moved up in the NFL rankings.

Could it be that teams were allowing Smith the passes in between the 20s therefore he has high efficiency numbers because they knew that Smith/Waldron are challenged in the red zone (difficulty converting TDs)?

 

[Scout]

The NFL formula is simple for the most part.

At least an average defense and a competent offense that puts up points ensures a team has a chance at a playoff ticket. Hawks offense doesn't need to do a lot to improve. The defense on the other hand is what has been holding this team back for a while now.

The defense being able to hold teams under 22 PPG is a reasonable goal to reach. But that doesn't guarantee anything as the 2021 team went 7-10 that year despite the defense holding offenses to 21.5 PPG while the offense generated 23.2 PPG.

I think with a proper OC that this offense can become elite but that hinges on the trench upgrades. Trench upgrades on the interior are crucial.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Um, I have been arguing from the Giants game on and including the post season loss because going 12-4 and losing in the first round is kind of a big deal

Who do you credit the most for that playoff loss? Was it Wilsons play? Was it the defense that couldn't stop a backup and 4 fingered QB along with giving up a million rushing yards? Or was it Carrolls crappy game planning and inability to coach with the likes of McVay on any kind of consistent basis?

 

[knownone]

You’re stacking the deck to fit your narrative. So you’re now saying Wilson wasn’t even great in his prime? Seriously?

What’s even stranger to me is the people arguing Wilson was just average are the same people trying to convince everyone Geno is great.

My point has almost nothing to do with Wilson.

I used him to highlight the contradiction in Warhawk's criteria: "If a quarterback has to have a top-ten team around to excel, then that just reinforces the argument that he's not a great quarterback."

In other words, that's not true. Plenty of great quarterbacks, such as Matt Stafford, have been in bad situations where they can't elevate the team around them. Notice my comment ends with a question, not a statement. I'm not saying Russ wasn't great in his prime. I'm asking if that's Warhawk's criteria, how does he feel about Russ?

I don't think Wilson was average, nor do I believe Geno is great.

 

[Ozzy]

My point has almost nothing to do with Wilson.

I used him to highlight the contradiction in Warhawk's criteria: "If a quarterback has to have a top-ten team around to excel, then that just reinforces the argument that he's not a great quarterback."

In other words, that's not true. Plenty of great quarterbacks, such as Matt Stafford, have been in bad situations where they can't elevate the team around them. Notice my comment ends with a question, not a statement. I'm not saying Russ wasn't great in his prime. I'm asking if that's Warhawk's criteria, how does he feel about Russ?

I don't think Wilson was average, nor do I believe Geno is great.

Ok I misread the statement then, apologies.

I think Russ absolutely elevated his team in multiple years and we probably come nowhere near 10 wins in a few of those years without him. He's not capable of that now obviously but in his prime he surely was.

 

[Ozzy]

And one of the best finishers we have ever seen. Period.
I can't believe this sh** is still being argued after all this time. Then again, I can.
Pure gold.

Right?

 

[Ozzy]

Without a doubt. His ability to extend plays and ad lib was unsurpassed, and I've seen a ton of them, ie Fran Tarkenton, Roger Staubach, Bob Griese, Steve Young.

But those guys all adjusted as Father Time's unstoppable march approached and remained relevant throughout the back nine of their careers. Russell never has. To this day, he still holds onto the ball too God damned long, takes too many sacks, can't or won't utilize the middle of the field.

Russell was the perfect QB for our LOB era team, with a guy like Beast to hand off to. Russell's job was to minimize turnovers, not put the D in bad positions, and score when the opportunity presented itself. In other words, he wasn't called upon to win games so much as he was not to lose them.

He had multiple game winning drives during that stretch and 4th quarter heroics where he took over a game and won it on his own. His 2 minute stuff was maybe the best I've ever seen. People also forget that Lynch was good before Russ and became great with Russ. Some of that Russ deserves credit for because of his rushing ability. He rushed for almost 900 yards one year lol. The threat of his legs helped Lynch a ton and the zone read stuff was revolutionary at the time. You can't do that with Lynch and Geno or anyone else who is an average runner.

Now the first 3 years or so he wasn't called on to be the team for sure but he did win many games with game winning drives or 4th quarter magic. After the defense started to slip he was asked to to a large percentage of the teams success carried on his shoulders. He had a year where he had all but a couple of the teams touchdowns and they were still competitive. People seem to forget that. He also is one of the few elite guys who didn't have an elite dominant #1 receiver for a large portion of his career. He had Doug early on, an undrafted small WR.

As I'm writing this we may all see this from a slightly diffferent angle but man the team was constructed perfectly. I will always argue you don't win a SB without any of the pieces being gone ie Lynch, Wilson, SHerman, Thomas etc. Crazy.

 

[BASF]

Funny how Wilson apologists will always blame Carroll, but it has been Geno's fault.

 

[knownone]

Here are some more stats - NFL Team Redzone scoring pct (TD only) - https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

In 2021 first year with Waldron/Wilson//Smith - they were #3 NFL at 64.58%. Wilson played in 13 games and Smith played in 3.

In 2022 - with Waldron/Smith - they dropped to #27 at 48.28. The only changes is that RW was traded and Smith became QB1.

In 2023 - Waldron/Smith - they were #26 at 48.15. Slightly worse than 2022 but they moved up in the NFL rankings.

Could it be that teams were allowing Smith the passes in between the 20s therefore he has high efficiency numbers because they knew that Smith/Waldron are challenged in the red zone (difficulty converting TDs)?

How was trading Wilson the only change? In 2022, they completely revamped their offensive line, going from a veteran group to bookending rookies.

I've mentioned this before, but RZ TD% is not a great stat because it's circumstantial and has a relatively small sample size. It rewards aggression and doesn't even reflect total scoring in the RZ. For example, Washington and Arizona are in the top 6 in RZ TD% and in the bottom 8 for total scoring.

 

[Ozzy]

Funny how Wilson apologists will always blame Carroll, but it has been Geno's fault.

Who and what are you responding to? And doesn't this work both ways? Was Russ responsible for any of his success or just Geno is allowed that?

 

[flv2]

Here are some more stats - NFL Team Redzone scoring pct (TD only) - https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

In 2021 first year with Waldron/Wilson//Smith - they were #3 NFL at 64.58%. Wilson played in 13 games and Smith played in 3.

In 2022 - with Waldron/Smith - they dropped to #27 at 48.28. The only changes is that RW was traded and Smith became QB1.

In 2023 - Waldron/Smith - they were #26 at 48.15. Slightly worse than 2022 but they moved up in the NFL rankings.

Could it be that teams were allowing Smith the passes in between the 20s therefore he has high efficiency numbers because they knew that Smith/Waldron are challenged in the red zone (difficulty converting TDs)?

I don't see the current RBs as short-yardage RBs. However the top 2 guys cranked out a huge number of 1st downs in 2023 so the evidence doesn't back me up. The Seahawks have similar rushing TD stats from their main RBs in all 3 seasons. The number of passing TDs dropped significantly in 2023. The TD efficiency was near enough the same which suggests the number of red-zone opportunities fell significantly. This is likely a consequence of OL injuries.

Possibilities:
Smith doesn't read compact spaces as well as other QBs.
Smith may be more conservative, taking longer to release the ball and being safer with it.
Smith isn't enough of a rushing TD threat.
The Seahawks don't have enough, or struggle to execute quick hitting short-yardage passes.
The current RBs lack the receiving skills of their 2021 counterparts.
The current receivers lack the instant separation abilities of their 2021 counterparts.
The playcalling became more conservative when Wilson left.
Wilson was a unique red-zone QB and comparisons to such a player are unrealistic.

Personally I think the RBs have been a problem in the passing game for the last 2 seasons. Either they lack receiving skills or they're an afterthought. Either way it's like playing football with 10 men.

 

[BASF]

Who and what are you responding to? And doesn't this work both ways? Was Russ responsible for any of his success or just Geno is allowed that?

There are several Wilson apologists. I have called them that many times before. They know who they are. I have not called you one, so obviously I don't believe you to be one.

As far as your second question, I think you have me mistaken for someone else. Wilson was very responsible for his success. I am probably one of the few people who saw him play at NC State as I was a fan of the ACC being a Seminole fan. I watched him move to Wisconsin with great interest because I was very glad my Seminoles no longer had to deal with his sandlot style of football. I have never taken away any of his success as a passer or runner. His style of play never changed as a passer. The only thing Carroll and the Seahawks did for him was introduce the RPO to his game. It made him more dangerous and unpredictable.

The thing I have always brought in to question here is how several posters put him over the team, and constantly. His fourth quarter heroics have always been his champions first thing they point out and they always blame Carroll for it being necessary. The problem with that is his boom or bust way of moving an offense was there at NC State and Wisconsin. They never factor that in to their thought process despite how many times I have posted his highlights from both schools showing that he was running the same plays and throwing the same routes against teams that were playing back and protecting leads. Wilson was very good at moving the ball against those defenses until he started believing his own press and forcing things later in his career. I go back to the Titans game, 2021, in which we lost in overtime due to Wilson trying to force the ball downfield in to double coverage instead of taking the easy open completions two plays in a row that would have kept our drive alive. Carroll was asked in the post game press conference about it and said, (I wish our QB would take the check downs that the defense gave him, paraphrased, cuz I am not hunting down the direct quote for the umpteenth time) and Wilson's response in his Monday press conference the next day when asked about what Carroll had said was, "I know how to win. And we have done a lot of that." He put himself above the team and his apologists followed right along with him.

Trying now after all this time to put what Geno had to surmount last season with the lack of talent that Wilson had to deal with is not accurate. Wilson never had it as bad as Geno did last year. The main thing that Geno had going against him last season is practically never mentioned by anyone and it is the same thing our defense had to surmount:

OUR COORDINATORS WERE FIGURED OUT BY THE LEAGUE THE PREVIOUS SEASON

Our team was setup to fail by Pete Carroll when he made the stupid decision to stick with Waldron and Hurtt. Geno was setup to fail. Our skill position players were setup to fail. Our defense was setup to fail. Carroll decided to give them the offseason to make adjustments and they came up with very little in the way of actual answers.

 

[RiverDog]

As I'm writing this we may all see this from a slightly diffferent angle but man the team was constructed perfectly. I will always argue you don't win a SB without any of the pieces being gone ie Lynch, Wilson, SHerman, Thomas etc. Crazy.

I disagree. IMO the team was constructed so perfectly that we could have won without any one of those pieces, at least for a limited period of time.

Just take a look at SB 49 and how many players were out or limited by injury, and yet we came within a couple yards and one bad play of winning our 2nd straight Lombardi.

He had multiple game winning drives during that stretch and 4th quarter heroics where he took over a game and won it on his own. His 2 minute stuff was maybe the best I've ever seen. People also forget that Lynch was good before Russ and became great with Russ. Some of that Russ deserves credit for because of his rushing ability. He rushed for almost 900 yards one year lol. The threat of his legs helped Lynch a ton and the zone read stuff was revolutionary at the time. You can't do that with Lynch and Geno or anyone else who is an average runner.

Now the first 3 years or so he wasn't called on to be the team for sure but he did win many games with game winning drives or 4th quarter magic. After the defense started to slip he was asked to to a large percentage of the teams success carried on his shoulders. He had a year where he had all but a couple of the teams touchdowns and they were still competitive. People seem to forget that. He also is one of the few elite guys who didn't have an elite dominant #1 receiver for a large portion of his career. He had Doug early on, an undrafted small WR.

As I'm writing this we may all see this from a slightly diffferent angle but man the team was constructed perfectly. I will always argue you don't win a SB without any of the pieces being gone ie Lynch, Wilson, SHerman, Thomas etc. Crazy.

I think you're being a little overly dramatic about Russell's 4th quarter heroics and taking over games, but I won't argue about it. He was a solid quarterback for a lot of years, no bout adoubt. But after those first 3 years, he never took that next step, was never able to lead the team past the divisional round of the playoffs, and there are some that claim that he was one of the reasons for the locker room divide that contributed to the breakup of the LOB.

And yes, the team was constructed almost perfectly, but I'd argue that it was so perfectly constructed that we could have afforded to lose one or two of those pieces for a limited time and still won a Lombardi. Our defense was so dominating in SB 48 that any competent backup quarterback could have won that game. Just look how banged up we were in SB 49, yet we came within 2 yards and one very bad pass play of winning two straight Lombardi's. We were not dependent on any single player.

 

[knownone]

The dichotomy is less about Geno vs. Russ and more about people bending over backward to excuse Russell's failings while doing the opposite for Geno.

This is all an outgrowth of the failed Let Russ Cook movement. Many in our fanbase bought into that narrative, blaming everyone but Russ for the team's failure. Most have moved on, given that it's clear Russell wasn't free of blame. However, there remains a small contingent of fans who are still trying to square that circle, battling with the dissonance of Russ falling flat on his face in Denver, their entire narrative collapsing, all while watching Seattle's offense not fall off dramatically with Geno.

This group's only option is diminishing Geno by comparing his recent seasons with the all-time peak of Seahawks football.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Nah, Russ had plenty of flaws as a QB, like most QB's do. He was maddening, often. Geno has plenty of flaws too. Not sure why it has turned in to a Geno vs. Russ thing. Totally different QB's.
One of them was extremely successful, the other..........we are still waiting.
The difference is that there's one group that wants to downplay everything he's ever done. And another group who doesn't believe in Geno getting us deep into the playoffs.
And that's fine. We all have our opinions. Russ was far from perfect, but he also was the best QB this team has ever had, period.
That does NOT mean he was w/out flaws and/or above criticism. It's QB in the NFL. You're gonna' get criticized. He earned some of it, w/out a doubt.

 

[McGruff]

Who do you credit the most for that playoff loss? Was it Wilsons play? Was it the defense that couldn't stop a backup and 4 fingered QB along with giving up a million rushing yards? Or was it Carrolls crappy game planning and inability to coach with the likes of McVay on any kind of consistent basis?

All of the above.