Interesting stats for fans down on Geno and/or Russ

[Ozzy]

The haters, yes. But the realistic Russ detractors like me would've expected him to be top-10 here. My whole issue with Russ was him not pulling the trigger on short/mid stuff. He's always put the ball on the money, though, especially deep.

Yeah his deep ball was so fun to watch. I miss those days.

 

[Aircrew]

We've enjoyed a couple of great quarterback stories in recent times ..................

I vote we add the vomit emoji to the comment/reply options.

 

[RiverDog]

I don't see this as an oddball stat. He's in really good company. My logical conclusion is that if the team around Geno improves a fair bit, it stands to reason that this should translate into substantially more completions, more yards, more points, more wins.

Same goes for the Steelers and even (gasp), the Broncos. Maybe Zach Wilson can redeem himself from those dumpster fire Jets years.

How many other publications have embraced this stat? How long has it been around? If you can't answer that question in a positive manner, then it is, by definition, unique, or in other words, oddball.

I would need to know a little more about their methodology before I accepted this as a genuine stat. It's too subjective for me to buy it as is. It's not definitive like a completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, or a passer rating, and therefore, you can't go back and compare it with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, et al. Besides, even if I were to accept this as a legitimate stat, you can't use it in a vacuum to come to the conclusion that Geno is a "super accurate passer". as there are other factors at work, like yards downfield, if the QB is on the move, etc, that determine if a pass is on target or not.

Russell Wilson, for example, has always had one of the highest time to throw numbers in the league, so you would expect him to be reasonably accurate as he's obviously more selective.

 

[SeaWolv]

On the other hand, Geno's red zone completion percentage was one of the worst in the league at just 43%, way under his season average of 64.7%.

How much of that is due to poor route running, lack of separation or drops that are totally out of his control, in an area of the field where defenses tend to stiffen?

Before anyone says every team has those issues I would say yes but in some years some teams can have more of these issues and in others less. I think a career red zone number might be more helpful to isolate if Geno struggles in the red zone.

https://www.fantasylife.com/tools/redzone-passing

This shows he's at 50% which is the same as Trevor Lawrence and Jalen Hurts.

 

[JGreen79]

On the other hand, Geno's red zone completion percentage was one of the worst in the league at just 43%, way under his season average of 64.7%.

2024 NFL Red Zone Stats | Quarterbacks | FantasyPros

View 2024 NFL Red Zone Stats. We break down the Red Zone performance inside the 20 yard line of all Quarterbacks in one convenient report. Import your fantasy team to find out whos available in your league.

www.fantasypros.com

Geno's 3rd down completion percentage, although not as bad as in the red zone, was a lackluster 56.9%. As a team, we ranked just 23rd on 3rd down, a performance that says as much about the quarterback as it does the team. Josh Allen's Bills were #1 in that department, and Allen just happened to be PFF's highest rated QB. Purdy's Niners were 4th, Mahomes Chiefs 6th.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2023

I'm not trying to disrespect Geno, but let's not start falling in love with someone's oddball stat because it happens to show him in a good light.

IMO Red Zone completion percentage is mostly about play calling. 3rd down conversions are slightly less so, elite talent can overcome some bad play calling on 3rd down.

Aiden O'Connell was number 1st in 2023 for redzone completion percentage at 73.3%, Jake Browning was 5th at 65.6%, and Mac Jones was 6th at 65.5% . Mayfield's Bucs and Fields's Bears were top 10 in 3rd down conversions.

Bailey Zappe went 7 for 9 with 5TD's in the redzone last year. Small sample size, but neither he nor Jones are considered Elite QB's for the Pats

 

[toffee]

To some on dot net, Geno Smith was, is, and will always be a bottom 1/3 QB in the league no matter what.

 

[McGruff]

How many other publications have embraced this stat? How long has it been around? If you can't answer that question in a positive manner, then it is, by definition, unique, or in other words, oddball.

I would need to know a little more about their methodology before I accepted this as a genuine stat. It's too subjective for me to buy it as is. It's not definitive like a completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, or a passer rating, and therefore, you can't go back and compare it with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, et al. Besides, even if I were to accept this as a legitimate stat, you can't use it in a vacuum to come to the conclusion that Geno is a "super accurate passer". as there are other factors at work, like yards downfield, if the QB is on the move, etc, that determine if a pass is on target or not.

Russell Wilson, for example, has always had one of the highest time to throw numbers in the league, so you would expect him to be reasonably accurate as he's obviously more selective.

Wilson is selective in that he is always looking for the deep ball.

 

[McGruff]

How much of that is due to poor route running, lack of separation or drops that are totally out of his control, in an area of the field where defenses tend to stiffen?

Before anyone says every team has those issues I would say yes but in some years some teams can have more of these issues and in others less. I think a career red zone number might be more helpful to isolate if Geno struggles in the red zone.

https://www.fantasylife.com/tools/redzone-passing

This shows he's at 50% which is the same as Trevor Lawrence and Jalen Hurts.

I think the red zone dip has everything to do with piss poor playcalling. Waldron consistently running 4 vertical routes inside the ten yard line was maddening.

 

[projectorfreak]

QBs Under Pressure in 2023

Jared Goff had great numbers in 2023, but not when he was under pressure. We look at all the QBs.

ftnfantasy.com

Another link that shows just how good Geno is. Not only did he lead the league in accurate passing, but he was the 10th most pressured qb.

And ... he has one of the lowest drops in DVOA when pressured. In other words... pressure doesnt get to him. And theres a short list of qbs who performed better than he did when the rush was coming and he had to be decisive...

Patrick Mahomes
Kirk Cousins
Lamar Jackson
Brock Purdy
Josh Allen
Dak Prescott

And non of them had the 29th best rushing attack and 28th best O line.

And people want to say hes a 16 to 20th ranked player at his position?

To recap:

One of the worst rushing games in the league behind him.

One of the worst offensive lines in front of him.

And hes tops in accurate throws.

And was elite in terms of his ability to pass under pressure.

Oh. And his offensive coordinator was invited to pack his bags.

Thanks for linking that , I always try to find other good sources of info even if they aren't the best it's still info i'd like to digest
That's another one of the many reasons I come to this site repeatedly
So many good posters and info , very interesting read
Go Hawks

 

[Double Tribble]

Geno's accuracy has never been the main issue. It's his decision making, which the poor 3rd down conversion rate attests to. If accuracy were the main metric to judge qb's, he wouldn't go entire halves without scoring on a regular basis.

 

[keasley45]

On the other hand, Geno's red zone completion percentage was one of the worst in the league at just 43%, way under his season average of 64.7%.

2024 NFL Red Zone Stats | Quarterbacks | FantasyPros

View 2024 NFL Red Zone Stats. We break down the Red Zone performance inside the 20 yard line of all Quarterbacks in one convenient report. Import your fantasy team to find out whos available in your league.

www.fantasypros.com

Geno's 3rd down completion percentage, although not as bad as in the red zone, was a lackluster 56.9%. As a team, we ranked just 23rd on 3rd down, a performance that says as much about the quarterback as it does the team. Josh Allen's Bills were #1 in that department, and Allen just happened to be PFF's highest rated QB. Purdy's Niners were 4th, Mahomes Chiefs 6th.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2023

I'm not trying to disrespect Geno, but let's not start falling in love with someone's oddball stat because it happens to show him in a good light.

How much do you figure the 2nd worst running game in the league affects qb efficiency ? I mean, in the redzone, issues on offense are exacerbated and the effectiveness of PA, reduced, especially when you cant threaten with the run. When we got down there, it was pretty easy for opposing defenses to shut us down on the ground. The only threat we had was the passing game. But when defenses can play whatever coverage they want because they know the can bottle us up on the ground, effectiveness drops.

Add to that, this:

Why Bears fans should be weary of the Shane Waldron hiring

It's been a few days since the Chicago Bears hired Shane Waldron to be their new offensive coordinator. By now, most fans should know a bit about his story. Hav

beargoggleson.com

Waldron's struggles on money downs are well documented. That article is but one of a few that cover his often puzzling decision making and tendency to overthink things.

 

[knownone]

Why do some people ignore scoring when looking at RZ stats? Geno's completion percentage was low because a big part of Seattle's red zone offense was low-percentage throws in the corner. Move away from that number for a moment, and you'll notice he's been above average in RZ scoring both seasons (9th, 13th).

 

[keasley45]

How much of that is due to poor route running, lack of separation or drops that are totally out of his control, in an area of the field where defenses tend to stiffen?

Before anyone says every team has those issues I would say yes but in some years some teams can have more of these issues and in others less. I think a career red zone number might be more helpful to isolate if Geno struggles in the red zone.

https://www.fantasylife.com/tools/redzone-passing

This shows he's at 50% which is the same as Trevor Lawrence and Jalen Hurts.

Thanks for finding that. Was looking for his 3rd down production iver his career.

He was better on 3rd down when a lesser player in NY and with worse talent. What does that tell you?

Scheme. Unless he somehow managed to be so good he finished near top 10 on thr league as a passer 2 years in a row, but forgot how to play on 3rd down.

 

[keasley45]

For those pointing to 3rd down failure as a sign of Geno's ineffectiveness, there's also this:

'Seattle was one of the best teams in the league in converting 3rd and long (7-10 yards). They were awful at 3rd and super long (11+ yards), but let’s set that situation aside for a bit given it is a low probability conversion for any team.'

Entire article is here and a really good read:

3rd Down Turnaround Coming For Seahawks

Unflinching analysis of all things Seahawks

www.hawkblogger.com

Unlike years prior to Geno, we were really good when we were against the wall on 3rd and 7 to 10. Shorter than that and you are involving your ground game more, which for us, was abysmal, both with respect to effectiveness and design / playcalls.

We were 29th when we hit 3rd and 1-6. Thats not a Geno problem. Because when we relied on him on known passing situations, the dude was one of the best.

 

[McGruff]

Playcalling on 3rd and short was terrible. And the problem with the run overall was not effectiveness, but commitment.

 

[McGruff]

We were 23rd in the league in rushing attempts. We were top 5 in yards per carry.

 

[keasley45]

Playcalling on 3rd and short was terrible. And the problem with the run overall was not effectiveness, but commitment.

When you take out the runs that KW made on sheer grit, talent, and his uncanny ability to turn less than nothing into a highlight, id argue are running game effectiveness was poor. Cant count the number of times last year and for stretches the year before, wed be in 2nd ir 3rd and short and our ground game got nothing. I agree, that part of the issue is we never committed to it. But when we did go to the ground, we werent scaring anybody.

 

[Scout]

I have watched plenty of football to know that based on current NFL rules and trends that Geno will succeed even in a new offense. Red zone scoring is really a component that relies on play calling and matchups more so than QB play so it is mostly on the creativity and OC's ability to manipulate defenses. However, Geno being less accurate in the red zone even if it is for corner jump balls is a problem.

But the flipside is that the Seahawks WRs have to do more in the red zone to beat man to man or zones. This is why teams are willing to send an extra blitzer in the red zone due to a shortened field. The shortened field allows defenses to play heavy zone still with at least six to five players which is hard to beat through precision passing alone.

That is why creativity, misdirection, play action and running the football are so critical in red zone opportunities. I feel like Waldron defaulted to very generic formations in the red zone. I do not have the numbers to back it up but based on what I remember and that is where Waldron failed to capitalize. Waldron was brought in for play action and misdirection and the most crucial part of that cornerstone of his offensive philosophy was no where to be found in the red zone. So that is more of a complaint on my part toward Waldron than Geno really.

And there is another component in that teams on defense are using rotating zones to counter this style of offense which Seahawks HC Mac was at the tip of the spear with last year defensively.

We shall see if Waldron, Canales, Coen, McVay, Robinson, etc can use this style offense to keep thriving or they must evolve.

 

[JayhawkMike]

Methodology in coming up with the rankings is key. I like that next level of information before I believe it or not. Especially when my personal viewing of games does not match with what is being said. But, if it supports your position jump on it all you want but the real information is not being shared so I won't give it much weight until it is.

 

[pittpnthrs]

To some on dot net, Geno Smith was, is, and will always be a bottom 1/3 QB in the league no matter what.

There's a reason for that though. If you take in the big picture, he has all these awesome stats that portray him as something he is not. Regardless of all these stats that are thrown around, the guy has never won more than 9 games in a season or a post season win. Supporters will come and put the blame on crappy teams, horrid play calling, or whatever else, but the truth of the matter is that great QB's can elevate their teams and overcome some of those issues (Russ did it for years), but Geno has never been that. He's a system QB that lives and dies by the cohesion or breakdown of the game plans. Some believe he can and will overcome his shortcomings and others don't. He's running out of time.