I think this DT class is very, very over-rated

[kearly]

Even though I don't really expect Seattle to draft a DT super early (it goes against precedent for PC/JS), I've spent most of my draft study time this offseason looking at the DT group. Reason being, it's been said many places- even from some highly respectable people (Mike Mayock)- to be the best defensive line class anyone can remember seeing. Particularly at DT. Obviously, Seattle has needed an impact pass rush DT ever since Cortez Kennedy retired. So I figured this was worth looking into.

Now, DT is a position where even the HoFer pass rushers still "fail" on 80% of their snaps. For example I remember being highly unimpressed with Corey Liuget a few years ago after watching him fail constantly in a couple of his games. The Chargers took him very early, and Liuget developed into a decent pass rusher in the NFL. So I know from past experience that tape doesn't tell the whole story every time with these guys (although FWIW, Aaron Donald and Frank Clark dominated in every game I watched of theirs, and Kawann Short had a long list of good games too).

But I look at this 2016 group and WOW. I just don't get the hype! None of these guys have a lightning quick first step. None of them are causing guards and centers to freak out. Some of them, like Rankins, are very disciplined vs. the run and will surely provide quiet value the way Rubin did for Seattle last year. But in a free agent market where these "quiet value" DTs are a dime a dozen and signing bargain deals, where is the logic in burning a 1st round pick on one?

The way I see it, a DT should only go in the first couple rounds if he can viably threaten 6+ sacks multiple times in his career. Run defense still matters, but DTs known primarily for their run stuffing skill can easily be found in the bargain bin of FA.

And when I look at this draft, I don't see anyone that is creating havoc without making major concessions vs. the run to do so. A guy like Adolphus Washington for example can wreak a little bit of havoc and gets interior OL to play scared, but he also plays with a remarkable lack of discipline and ends up on his back 10 times a game.

One guy I think might be on Seattle's radar, for better or worse, is Vernon Butler out of La Tech. He supposedly weighs 325 pounds but moves like a sub-300 pounder. Even though he weighs 40 pounds more than Datone Jones, he reminds me of Jones in that he might get into the 1st round based purely on his movement skills. That said, Butler has averaged just 2 sacks per season playing in Conference USA and his run defense is surprisingly bad. You won't find many guys with stats that poor who turns into an NFL star. But the dude can move.

Andrew Billings isn't bad... he's probably worth comparing to Brandon Williams... same kind of compact body and a reliance on super strength. Good player? yes. Star pass rusher? no.

Shawn Oakman is probably the biggest Baylor hype job since you know who, but I still kinda want him on our team. He's fun.

Overall, I see a long list of DTs in this draft that will be seeing a whole lot of lower-middle class contracts when they hit FA in four years. It's certainly a deep group, I just don't see very many DTs that I feel great about drafting in round 1. Feels like a lot of round 3 prospects getting round 1 hype.

[youtube]4WhwoXLWb1E[/youtube]

If I was forced to take any of these DTs at #26 I'd go with Vernon Butler, just because his upside is so obvious even if he hasn't cashed in on it yet. That said, I felt the same way about Datone Jones a few years ago and Jones has been JAG for the Packers so far. It's a hack-swing for the fences type of pick. It's not a pick I'd pound the table for, but at least Butler has a chance to live up to the hype pundits are putting on this DT group.

 

[Yxes1122]

I feel the same about this group. I still think there are guys Seattle should look at on Day Two, but overall, I see a bunch of Jordan Hills in this draft. Role Players that have value, no real stars.

I can understand the love for Vernon Butler given his measurables, but I just don't see the push and explosion. If I had my choice of any DT, it'd be Billings. I think Billings gives you something to play with in case Mebane leaves that Jordan Hill just doesn't. And I'm not convinced Billings can't develop into someone special given how well he moves, his functional strength and he played for a team like Baylor.

But overall I completely agree with you. I find it incredible that a guy like A'Shawn Robinson is touted as the best DT in this class. I just don't see it. Slow off the snap, doesn't usually command double teams and can be taken completely out of plays by a college guard. I do not see game changing talent and I'd take Billings over him in a heart beat. I liked Jarren Reed more than I liked Robinson. Not a game changer himself, but I thought he played with more power than what I saw from Robinson.

This is something I do for fun and I can't say I have a "system" for how I evaluate guys but generally, when I scout DL talent, I look for speed off the snap and functional power. If you don't have those, I can't see you succeeding at the pro level and there just isn't a first round guy in this draft. If Dominique Easley came out of this draft, he'd be the first DT off the board and he fell to the very end of the first round in 2014.

There are players I find intriguing and there's guys I think that can play a role. I like Billings, I don't mind Jarren Reed, Darius Latham showed some interesting movement ability for a guy his size in the two minute highlight reel I saw. Sheldon Rankins looks solid, but he's a Jordan Hill type talent to me, just he's better against the run. Bullard out of Florida is an interesting guy, but he's more a DE and lacks pass rush moves.

I would avoid guys like Nkimdiche and Robinson like a plague. Both guys are hype jobs to me who I think have high bust potential.

To be honest, I think there is better DBs in this draft than DL. I can see a scenario where Hargreaves falls to the late first if he measures in on the short side of 5' 11" at the combine, but he is far and away my favorite player in this draft. I don't think it will happen given PC/JS's drafting history but I think if one of the better corner prospects falls to them in round one it will provide the biggest immediate upgrade.

I have been pretty critical about Seattle not using their first round pick over the last few drafts, but in this one, I almost welcome a trade down. If they had to go pass rusher/DT in the first I'd go Billings, then maybe a Kevin Dodd (he's far from perfect put he played extremely well against Bama and that has stuck with me). But I'd take a mid round flier on a guy like Carl Nassib before I'd take some of the DTs mocked to us in the first round.

 

[kearly]

This is something I do for fun and I can't say I have a "system" for how I evaluate guys but generally, when I scout DL talent, I look for speed off the snap and functional power. If you don't have those, I can't see you succeeding at the pro level and there just isn't a first round guy in this draft. If Dominique Easley came out of this draft, he'd be the first DT off the board and he fell to the very end of the first round in 2014.

That's a very good point. I thought Easley was a hype job- I didn't like him at all- but I agree that he'd probably go #1 at DT in this class.

There are a couple of 3-4 DE prospects that deserve 1st round grades this year (Buckner and Rankins), but I don't see anybody that's worth a 1st rounder to play DT in a 4-3 defense.

As far as what I look for. I mainly judge a DT by how bad he makes his opposing OL look. Usually that means being very quick off the snap and being really hard to get hands on. Aaron Donald's college tape is the epitome of what to look for in a DT coming out of college. I really wish Seattle had been as high on Donald as I was, I would have traded the farm to move up for him.

I'm also very suspicious of a pass rusher who couldn't get production vs. college offenses. Sometimes those guys figure it out in the NFL like Geno Atkins did. But it's very rare... it's like banking on a college QB with a sub-60% completion rate. It's an exceptions prove the rule kind of thing.

I don't love any of the DTs this year, but Billings is on my 'like' list. He can be a poor man's Mebane. I think he starts to make sense for Seattle in round 2-3.

If Seattle wants to go help the pass rush I think the smart move would be to sign a (potential) free agent like Cameron Wake or Mario Williams then draft a late rounder with tools and hope to hit the jackpot on one of them. If they draft a guy like Rankins and let Irvin walk, their pass rush will get worse, not better.

I look forward to watching corners although I think for Pete the quality of a DB's tape is almost meaningless since he builds them from the ground up over 2-3 years on Seattle's bench. Tye Smith, Walter Thurmond and Jeremy Lane are the only DBs Seattle has drafted that had decent tape, IIRC. Maxwell looked like a special teamer only and Sherman looked like a "wtf" pick. Simon had great tools and made some big plays, but by and large his LSU tape was pretty ugly.

The one area of this draft that impresses me so far is OL. In particular it seems like a really nice draft at center and tackle.There are 3-4 names floating around the end of round 1 at OL that I'd be more than happy with. And I say this as someone that doesn't think OL is our true top priority right now.

 

[penihawk]

Rankins is the only interior D-lineman to have over 40 plays behind the los the last two seasons combined. There were only 10 total guys that did. I think there are guys in this draft that end up good or even great D-tackles but there are no slam dunks for sure. If there were we would have no chance at 26 anyway. Maybe it's just a case of this draft being full of players that are 2nd-4th rounders and teams will have to find right guy/right team/right scheme to make the most of the '16 draft?

 

[cover-2]

Is this DT draft class a little over-rated, yes. But there is rarely if ever a draft that has legit 32 1st round grade prospects. So yes, every year there is going to be 15-20 prospects that are considered 1st round prospects, that you can make a strong case for really being 2nd round or 3rd round guys.

 

[kearly]

Is this DT draft class a little over-rated, yes. But there is rarely if ever a draft that has legit 32 1st round grade prospects. So yes, every year there is going to be 15-20 prospects that are considered 1st round prospects, that you can make a strong case for really being 2nd round or 3rd round guys.

In fairness, the entire 2016 draft is over-rated. The first wave of talent this year is almost as bad as 2013's. So it makes sense that a lot of 'meh' talents would get sucked into the 1st round discussion. Doesn't excuse the "best of all time" hype some people are saying though.

 

[vin.couve12]

I never think to come in here for some reason, but I was just watching some stuff on Billings and thought I'd check it out.

Some really good stuff here, guys.

I have to say that I do like Billings. He's going to really kill it in the combine. A lot of times the "strong men" of the defensive tackles who bench a lot are just really top heavy and oddly proportioned, but Billings actually has some good lower body development. You can tell he's a big time weight room guy and those tend to be very streamlined athletes with little flexibility. Billings shows some of that, but I was quite surprised at how well he keeps his base, pad level stays low, and he can even keep his feet and play laterally, which ironically reminded me of Mebane, not unlike Kearly mentions above. He's not entirely a mechanical moving combine athlete like Poe. Either way, I think Billings will have similar careers to both. He'll get to the quarterback for 5-6 sacks a season in the very early years and will make an outstanding run stopper afterwords a la Mebane.

That braft breakdown of Butler above is kind of interesting. His pad level is pretty bad and he tries to keep blockers off of him with long arms. Spends a lot of time on the ground due to playing so vertically where blockers can get to his legs.

I said the same things about Fletcher Cox when he was coming out too and that he'd take a few years to get any real use of that athletic ability and will have problems early on at the POA. That turned out to be true even given his rookie and 2nd year sacks. The same will probably be true of Butler. He seems to rely on his ability and size and will have to learn proper pad level, leverage, and gap discipline. He'll be a good 3 tech down the road though. Jaye Howard comes to mind when thinking about players like that too, who is now playing very, very well. A lot of athletes have to learn to be real football players AFTER getting to the NFL. Butler will likely follow suit.

Again though, that's just one game I've watched. I'll probably change my mind 79 times.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

Agree it's overrated. I think some of the national guys are mistaking great depth for great talent. There's no doubt you can find a decent starter in rounds 2-3. But there are maddeningly few interior pass rushers among the group. A lot of compromises or guys with size and mobility but a lack of technical finesse.

Adolphus Washington is the best interior rusher of the group IMO. The most akin to Malik Jackson in Denver.

I think the Seahawks will like Austin Johnson's hustle and motor. Sheldon Rankins will be better as a pure three technique rather than being moved around like he was in Louisville.

 

[hburn21]

Veron butler with an impressive weigh in
35" arms, 6'3 and 325 pounds

 

[firebee]

I'm actually liking Willie Henry out of Michigan... I think we'd get great value out of him later in the draft and he looks more NFL ready than most of the DTs projected to go on day 1.

 

[titan3131]

I'm actually liking Willie Henry out of Michigan... I think we'd get great value out of him later in the draft and he looks more NFL ready than most of the DTs projected to go on day 1.

I hope they take 2 dt's and he is the 2nd one. Also he is good friends with Frank clark so they already have chemistry together.

And Honestly anyone coming from a harbaugh program is a better chance of being NFL caliber imo.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

There are a couple of options for pass rushing types. Not Aaron Donald out of the box quality. But flash good potential.

1. Javon Hargrave. Small school talent. Had the kind of domination you want to see in the Shrine game. Extremely dominant in college. Almost amassed in one game Washington's entire career sack total. Measurables and competition will drop him. He's not the 34" arm prototype. But the guy has innate ability. Looks like he's made of teflon and just slides off blockers at will. Doesn't win with eye popping speed. But is explosive. Short arms do manifest themselves in missed tackles.

2. Adolphus Washington. If we're talking the guy that blew up the Senior Bowl. Yeah. If we're looking at the guy who plays entire games with a visible demeanor of "Man I wish I were someplace else right now" then absolutely not. Played down and well below inferior competition regularly. His splash plays .... very nice. But so much of his tape is just gross to watch. If a team can turn him into something he's not then they'll get a steal. Does Seattle covet underachievers?

3. Ronald Blair. Just checked his measurables and they are right in line with our ideal. Day 3 guy that could require an R3 pick.

Beyond that, I think this draft is chock full of athletic bigs. Honestly it looks like there are about 10 guys all with the same kind of tape as Rashede Hageman. A guy who was fringe 1st round talent a couple years back. Flash some pass rush ability but not consistent.

What you do see is a whole host of 320+ guys that move like 295 types. Good moving bigs but not explosive pass rushers. It's kind of a weird class. Normally to be a R1 type, you need to be a dominant NT (if you're a 3-4 Defense) or a pass rush specialist. This class doesn't really seem to offer much in the way of either.

It's been awhile, but I kind of think this draft has a lot of Brandon Mebane types coming out. Mebane wasn't the hulking figure we see today. He was more of a 310 guy with good movement. This class has a lot of that.

 

[McGruff]

Just watched some of Blair. His slippery off the blocks, with a wicked swim move. He's not quick on snap recognition, but he's explosive with his first step. I didn't see him get moved back with power, so that's a good thing.

But the thing I really liked about what I saw was his purusit. He moves like a linebacker to chase down plays away from him. That's a big trait I look for, as it shows not just good athletic ability but also high effort.

 

[firebee]

I'm actually liking Willie Henry out of Michigan... I think we'd get great value out of him later in the draft and he looks more NFL ready than most of the DTs projected to go on day 1.

I hope they take 2 dt's and he is the 2nd one. Also he is good friends with Frank clark so they already have chemistry together.

And Honestly anyone coming from a harbaugh program is a better chance of being NFL caliber imo.

I just don't really like a lot of the other DTs. I've noticed almost none of them chase plays down from behind or work sideline to sideline. They're short area players that give up on plays if the play starts to get away from them. Sure... some of them are monsters, other have really good pass rushing skills and others look explosive off the snap, but almost none of them stay with a play from sideline to sideline and keep in pursuit of the ball, regardless of where it is. He'll try to come up from behind and make a tackle 20 yards down the field. He plays at a great pad level. He always stays low and plays with leverage. He has excellent balance and stays on his feet, but he needs work on countering cut-blocks. Very disruptive at the point of attack, but needs development on pass rushing techniques.

The fundamental consistency and physical ability is all there with him. He just needs a little more work on the nuances and he'll be a force. The main thing though... He's the only DT that hustles and plays full force through the whistle based on what I've seen on all the DTs. He never gives up on a play and he has the ability to hold his own from sideline to sideline through the whistle. You just can't teach hustle, especially when it comes to the big guys.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

But the thing I really liked about what I saw was his purusit. He moves like a linebacker to chase down plays away from him. That's a big trait I look for, as it shows not just good athletic ability but also high effort.

Agreed totally. You see that kind of gritty play. There are a few that have it (Blair, Hargrave, Austin Johnson, Billings).

Don't be shocked if you hear Blair's name earlier. Seems like one of those players a casual draft observer goes 'WTF?' on day 3 -- then looks at the tape and nods approvingly.

 

[kearly]

There are a couple of options for pass rushing types. Not Aaron Donald out of the box quality. But flash good potential.

1. Javon Hargrave. Small school talent. Had the kind of domination you want to see in the Shrine game. Extremely dominant in college. Almost amassed in one game Washington's entire career sack total. Measurables and competition will drop him. He's not the 34" arm prototype. But the guy has innate ability. Looks like he's made of teflon and just slides off blockers at will. Doesn't win with eye popping speed. But is explosive. Short arms do manifest themselves in missed tackles.

2. Adolphus Washington. If we're talking the guy that blew up the Senior Bowl. Yeah. If we're looking at the guy who plays entire games with a visible demeanor of "Man I wish I were someplace else right now" then absolutely not. Played down and well below inferior competition regularly. His splash plays .... very nice. But so much of his tape is just gross to watch. If a team can turn him into something he's not then they'll get a steal. Does Seattle covet underachievers?

3. Ronald Blair. Just checked his measurables and they are right in line with our ideal. Day 3 guy that could require an R3 pick.

Beyond that, I think this draft is chock full of athletic bigs. Honestly it looks like there are about 10 guys all with the same kind of tape as Rashede Hageman. A guy who was fringe 1st round talent a couple years back. Flash some pass rush ability but not consistent.

What you do see is a whole host of 320+ guys that move like 295 types. Good moving bigs but not explosive pass rushers. It's kind of a weird class. Normally to be a R1 type, you need to be a dominant NT (if you're a 3-4 Defense) or a pass rush specialist. This class doesn't really seem to offer much in the way of either.

It's been awhile, but I kind of think this draft has a lot of Brandon Mebane types coming out. Mebane wasn't the hulking figure we see today. He was more of a 310 guy with good movement. This class has a lot of that.

Yeah I see a few poor man's Mebane types, though none that had Mebane's pass rush quicks in college. Hargrave comes the closest. I do like Hargrave but his measurements today kind of confirmed what I feared about level of competition making him look physically bigger than he really is. Still a good pick to make in the mid-rounds.

Adolphus Washington looked like an athlete who didn't know what he was doing most of the time and probably should have moved to DE. I can't really remember another pass rusher who ended up on the ground more than him.

Blair looks like JAG to me. It seems like he only gets by blockers when they want him to. Couple that with the low level of competition, and I don't think Blair could make our 53 man.

I do agree with a lot of comments here that if you want to draft a DT for good value this year, Billings and Hargrave are the two best options.

 

[kearly]

That braft breakdown of Butler above is kind of interesting. His pad level is pretty bad and he tries to keep blockers off of him with long arms. Spends a lot of time on the ground due to playing so vertically where blockers can get to his legs.

I said the same things about Fletcher Cox when he was coming out too and that he'd take a few years to get any real use of that athletic ability and will have problems early on at the POA. That turned out to be true even given his rookie and 2nd year sacks. The same will probably be true of Butler. He seems to rely on his ability and size and will have to learn proper pad level, leverage, and gap discipline. He'll be a good 3 tech down the road though. Jaye Howard comes to mind when thinking about players like that too, who is now playing very, very well. A lot of athletes have to learn to be real football players AFTER getting to the NFL. Butler will likely follow suit.

I like the points you make about Cox and how it relates to Butler. Butler has less production at a smaller school while looking less impressive on tape, but that's why he's a fringe first rounder and why Cox was taken 12th overall.

I'm not saying that I want Butler at #26, but I think Seattle will drool over his combine measurements and believe they can tap into his potential.

 

[vin.couve12]

That braft breakdown of Butler above is kind of interesting. His pad level is pretty bad and he tries to keep blockers off of him with long arms. Spends a lot of time on the ground due to playing so vertically where blockers can get to his legs.

I said the same things about Fletcher Cox when he was coming out too and that he'd take a few years to get any real use of that athletic ability and will have problems early on at the POA. That turned out to be true even given his rookie and 2nd year sacks. The same will probably be true of Butler. He seems to rely on his ability and size and will have to learn proper pad level, leverage, and gap discipline. He'll be a good 3 tech down the road though. Jaye Howard comes to mind when thinking about players like that too, who is now playing very, very well. A lot of athletes have to learn to be real football players AFTER getting to the NFL. Butler will likely follow suit.

I like the points you make about Cox and how it relates to Butler. Butler has less production at a smaller school while looking less impressive on tape, but that's why he's a fringe first rounder and why Cox was taken 12th overall.

I'm not saying that I want Butler at #26, but I think Seattle will drool over his combine measurements and believe they can tap into his potential.

I can definitely see that given how we've drafted 90-95% of the time.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

Ronald Blair III owned Clemson in 2015.

 

[kearly]

Ronald Blair III owned Clemson in 2015.

Blair had two sacks in that game. The first was on a stunt where he went untouched because the Center forgot to pick him up. The second was when the RT misunderstood his assignment and barely touched him. The first sack also occurred when the score was 31-0 and Clemson may have had backups in at that point. Appalachian St.'s overall pass rush got much much better after going down 31-0. Towards the end it looked like everybody was getting to the QB.

Up until that first sack at the end of the first half, down 31-0, Blair had only registered one pressure. When the game was in the balance and Clemson was trying, Blair was a non-factor.

I don't think Blair is a total bum. I just think that his explosiveness is lacking. He's pretty slow off the snap and slow through his pass rush moves as well. His swim move usually works, but never quickly. If you need a guy that can keep a QB from standing in the pocket for 5 seconds, then Blair has value. But I think in today's NFL where QBs are getting the ball out faster and faster, he's destined to be role player with minimal production.