How many draft picks make the team?

[kearly]

Obviously, it's impossible to know right now. That said, here are my best guesses based on the impressions I have of each player so far:

Christine Michael:

Lock. Present backup, future star, IMO.

Jordan Hill:

Lock. Seattle felt an all-around 3-tech was their only need going into this draft. Hill is a low risk player. If he didn't make the team it would be a stunner.

Chris Harper:

Probable. This regime isn't afraid to ditch 4th round picks, and has quickly cut 4th rounders in the past. EJ Wilson didn't make the team in 2010. Kris Durham was juggled between the roster and the practice squad in 2011 and was gone completely a year later. Durham was a project. So is Harper. So there is some risk he could flame out.

Seattle is very deep at receiver on a roster that already has Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, Stephen Williams, Jermaine Kearse, and Phil Bates. Bates and Kearse are long shots, but John Schneider was absolutely geeked when he signed Williams to a 2-year contract this winter and I think Williams sticks if he shows anything in the preseason. That makes Harper receiver #6, most likely. Will Seattle carry six receivers and five running backs? They did last year initially before changing their minds.

There are three factors working in Harper's advantage. The first is the draft pick investment and the fact that he's very cheap for another four years. The second is that at as a guy who runs a 4.5 forty at 230 pounds, Harper brings a unique skillset to the WR corps. The third factor is that Rice, Tate, and Baldwin might depart from the team in the next couple years, so Seattle wouldn't give up on Harper easily because they wouldn't want to regret giving up on him.

Jesse Williams:

Lock, if healthy.

2013 is a make or break year for Red Bryant. After 2013, Seattle has very little dead money on Bryant's escalating contract, and there's a roster bonus due next offseason. If Bryant struggles, Williams gives Seattle the leverage they need to restructure, trade, or release him.

Williams also provides crucial depth as a run stopper in 2013. If Mebane goes down, Williams can step in. Williams is an elite run defender with freakish strength and straight line speed.

Tharold Simon:

Probable.

Simon will compete with Thurmond, Lane, and Maxwell for three corner spots. He's got a lot more physical talent than Lane and has more skill as a corner than Maxwell. If Thurmond gets injured and IR'd (please no), then Simon becomes a lock. I think Maxwell becomes the odd man out, then quickly signs with another NFL team five minutes later.

Luke Willson:

70/30 he makes it. Canada vs. Argentina.

Willson will have to battle for this spot with the basketball player from South America. Both are terrific athletes. Seattle seems to be looking for a deep ball threat at TE, and Willson is 6'5" 250 with a 4.51 forty time. He's probably the favorite going in. And though it probably doesn't matter, Willson gives a very good interview (he interviews like a coach), and usually players that interview like 10 year pros tend to end up 10 year pros more often than not.

Spencer Ware:

I'm going to go on a limb here and call this one a lock. This wouldn't be fun if I didn't attempt a bold prediction.

I think Spencer Ware could be a starting RB in the NFL, maybe a very good one. He was arguably more talented than his LSU teammate Stevan Ridley. Ridley had 1,263 rushing yards for the Patriots last season. I know we have a ridiculous group of running backs already, but Seattle passed on some good players in the 6th round to get Ware even though he'd be our #5 RB.

Ware has the size to be a RB/FB hybrid and is a monster pass blocker who plays with Marshawn Lynch type effort and intensity. If you haven't seen Ware's highlights, you should really check them out:

[youtube]_8Hfl0SlXRQ[/youtube]

That kind of talent rarely ends up getting cut. Consider too that Kregg Lumpkin briefly made this roster last year as a #5 RB before a roster crunch cost him his job. Lumpkin was a nifty player, but he wasn't close to as talented as Ware.

Michael Robinson is 30 next season. I don't think Seattle will feel comfortable about a full season and playoffs without some form of depth for his position, and Ware has the kind of talent to star on special teams and in spot duty. He'll be a fan favorite in the preseason. Robert Turbin might hardly see the field next year between Michael and Ware.

Ryan Seymour:

50/50.

Seymour has a lot of competition- Seattle drafted or signed four guards yesterday. He's also perhaps the best candidate to earn a roster spot as he's the most versatile of the group and played the toughest competition in college.

If Seymour really impresses, he could make Paul McQuistan expendable. Releasing McQuistan would save $3 million, which probably explains why Seattle went hog wild with guards at the end of the draft's day 3.

Seattle also needs a backup tackle to replace Frank Omiyale.

Ty Powell:

Depends on Clemons. If released, Powell goes to the practice squad.

Powell has the talent to be a draft steal, but he's also making the jump from the lower divisions of college football and is going to a team that doesn't really have a spot for him if Clemons is healthy. I think Powell probably makes the team at first because I think it's likely Clemons will start on the PUP, and then I see him transitioning to the practice squad when Clemons returns. If he looks very promising in the preseason, Seattle might make a sacrifice elsewhere to stash Powell on the roster.

Jared Smith:

Longest of the long odds. Practice squad is a possibility.

Smith is another Sweezy type project from DT to G. Seattle will have 9 guards competing for four or five spots. Smith is among the least likely to win a spot.

Michael Bowie:

Decent chance.

Bowie was Russell Okung's successor at left tackle for Oklahoma State before transferring for violating team rules. If Bowie looks good, that could allow Seattle to part ways with McQuistan to save salary and if he looks really good, he might supplant Giacomini as a 2014 starter (Giacomini is a free agent after this season).

Of the undrafted free agents, I think Craig Wilkins (LB) has the best shot. He can play any spot in the linebacker group, is fast, and gets off blocks about as well as a linebacker possibly can.

 

[Seahawk Sailor]

Good assessment, Kip. I think I'm a bit more optimistic about Harper and Bowie, and less so about some of the other lower round guys than you are. I think Harper has a really good chance to make the team as the #5 receiver, and might even push Baldwin for #4. That's a bit of a bold prediction, but like you said, what fun would it be without those? I think Bowie was a much bigger steal than we realize. The dude didn't give up a lot of sacks and looked very good in pass blocking at OSU. He'd have gone at least mid-draft if he'd have stayed there. Another bold one, but I'm sticking to it.

Otherwise I agree pretty much across the board.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Who gets cut as a result of them making it is more interesting to me.

 

[NorthDallas40oz]

Depends on what you mean by "the team." If that includes the practice squad and being stashed on IR, then I wouldn't be surprised if they all stuck. To me, Seymour is the longest shot.

 

[JSeahawks]

Here's how I see it:

Michael: Makes the roster and gets carries.
Hill: Makes the roster as part of the rotation.
Chris Harper: Makes roster as 5th receiver, gets plenty of action
Jesse Williams: Week 1 starter in Branch's old spot.
Luke Willson: practice Squad
Spencer Ware: Either makes squad as 5th RB/Fb, or gets stashed on injured reserve. But does not get cut or hit practice squad.
Ryan Seymour: Cut or practice squad
Ty Powell: Cut or practice squad
Jared Smith: Cut or practice squad
Michael Bowie: Cut or practice squad.

Therold Simon is the one i'm really on the fence with. If we stick with our usual numbers then Simon, Thurmond, Lane and Maxwell are fighting for 2 spots. I think Lane and Thurmond are the best of the 4. But I dont think Simon would last on the practice squad. So they might either try and stash him on injured reserve or maybe keep an extra CB and go with one less safety which would cost Winston Guy, Maragos, or Johnson there jobs.

I still expect to bring in a veteran o'linemen or two (think Frank Omiyale type signings) that will end up being our active roster o'line depth.

 

[kearly]

Depends on what you mean by "the team."

53 man roster.

Good assessment, Kip. I think I'm a bit more optimistic about Harper and Bowie, and less so about some of the other lower round guys than you are.

I think Harper has about a 90% chance to make it. The only way he gets cut is if two of Williams/Kearse/Bates really push the issue.

Therold Simon is the one i'm really on the fence with. If we stick with our usual numbers then Simon, Thurmond, Lane and Maxwell are fighting for 2 spots.

Seattle carried six corners last year: Sherman, Browner, Trufant, Thurmond, Lane, Maxwell. We added Winfield but parted ways with Trufant. So if they carry six again, it's four guys fighting for 3 spots.

I don't think Simon's a lock, but Seattle did trade up to get him. I'd be surprised if he was the one standing when the music stops.

 

[Seahawk Sailor]

I think Harper has about a 90% chance to make it. The only way he gets cut is if two of Williams/Kearse/Bates really push the issue.

I think we're on the same page here. What do you think of my assessment of Bowie? Overly optimistic? About right?

 

[JSeahawks]

Therold Simon is the one i'm really on the fence with. If we stick with our usual numbers then Simon, Thurmond, Lane and Maxwell are fighting for 2 spots.

Seattle carried six corners last year: Sherman, Browner, Trufant, Thurmond, Lane, Maxwell. We added Winfield but parted ways with Trufant. So if they carry six again, it's four guys fighting for 3 spots.

I don't think Simon's a lock, but Seattle did trade up to get him. I'd be surprised if he was the one standing when the music stops.

You're right, i was thinking we only kept 5 cb's. If we do keep 6 I would think that Simon becomes a lock and Maxwell will be gone. I was reading some LSU forums and they dont seem very high on Simon they seemed to be pretty down on his charachter even before his arrest the other night, which has me kind of worried. They love Ware though. Also see a lot of this from LSU fans:

Him and Simon in a marijuana legal state.....

 

[OkieHawk]

I'm thinking that with his size and speed Harper is a lock, but stranger things happen in camp and preseason.

 

[jlwaters1]

Seattle carried six corners last year: Sherman, Browner, Trufant, Thurmond, Lane, Maxwell. We added Winfield but parted ways with Trufant. So if they carry six again, it's four guys fighting for 3 spots.

I don't think Simon's a lock, but Seattle did trade up to get him. I'd be surprised if he was the one standing when the music stops.

actually that's not accurate. Seattle traded up to pick Jesse Williams. Simon was picked with Seattle's 2nd pick of the 5th round.

 

[Seahawk Sailor]

Seattle carried six corners last year: Sherman, Browner, Trufant, Thurmond, Lane, Maxwell. We added Winfield but parted ways with Trufant. So if they carry six again, it's four guys fighting for 3 spots.

I don't think Simon's a lock, but Seattle did trade up to get him. I'd be surprised if he was the one standing when the music stops.

actually that's not accurate. Seattle traded up to pick Jesse Williams. Simon was picked with Seattle's 2nd pick of the 5th round.

While we did select Williams with that traded pick, there is evidence - from the front office itself - that we were really eyeing Simon. They came out and said, "there was a cornerback we didn't want to lose" when talking about that trade.

I think that was a case of them seeing both those players still on the boards and wanting them both bad enough to make it happen.

 

[CFraychineaud]

What do you think the chances are of one of our CB's getting a shot as a FS backup?

Especially one that's good at the special teams side of it, because that's primarily why we have Maragos. Would you really feel comfortable with Maragos being our primary FS if Thomas went down? I'd rather have Jeron Johnson back there or someone like maybe a Maxwell... or shit maybe Browner can transition when he slows down from CB to a safety spot.

Any thoughts?

 

[bobk3333]

The Seahawks have to be careful about saving good players by putting them on the practice squad.

Every player on the practice squad is a free agent and can be picked up by any other team at any time. It is very risky for talented teams like the Seahawks have become.

Good teams like the Seahawks who are considered to be overloaded with talent will be scouted carefully during the pre-season by the rest of the league. If any player placed on the practice squad showed even an inkling of promise, they will be snapped up by another team. The Seahawks were not on anyone's radar last year, but they are at the top of the list now.

It also hasn't been practical, for a long time now, to "stash players on IR." No one has done that in years.

I think the Hawks lost six players during the offseason - Flynn, Branch, Jones, Hill, Obamanu, Trufant; and gained five or six - Harvin, Avril, McDaniel and Bennett, plus one or two QBs. There are other players like Rishaw Johnson, Jermaine Kearse, Sean McGrath and Kerry Toomer who were on the practice squad last season who will compete strongly for roster positions during training camp. There are others like Carpenter, Moffitt and Thurmond coming off injuries.

The general point is that between the rookies, including the undrafted free agents, we are currently so excited about and the familiar faces we have gotten to know and love, we will probably be losing a lot of them. There will be some real injuries and some might be uninteresting enough that no other team will snipe them if they don't make the 53-man roster after training camp, but the math says we will lose at least five or ten players we really like now. And for the decent ones you can't assume that we can just keep them around by putting them on the practice squad.

.

 

[AROS]

Good to know, thanks Kip.

 

[kigenzun]

I estimate the top 7 will make the final 53 + PS + IR.

I don't have much hope for any of the 7th rounders/UDFAs, but you never know....

 

[sutz]

What do you think the chances are of one of our CB's getting a shot as a FS backup?

Especially one that's good at the special teams side of it, because that's primarily why we have Maragos. Would you really feel comfortable with Maragos being our primary FS if Thomas went down? I'd rather have Jeron Johnson back there or someone like maybe a Maxwell... or shit maybe Browner can transition when he slows down from CB to a safety spot.

Any thoughts?

Ummm, you do realize tht Thomas is one of the fastest players on the field, don't you? The idea of Browner "slowing down" to a safety spot doesn't work for ET's position. Our D would be much less efficient if we lost the speed that ET brings to the formation. Many of our coverage schemes would probably be unworkable without him. IIRC, one of the reasons Maragos is in the mix is because he's only a step or so slower than Earl.

 

[kearly]

Good to know, thanks Kip.

:thirishdrinkers:

 

[SDHawk]

Are Ray Polk, Craig Wilkins and John Lotulelei not even worth discussing?

Bradford is more a project than any of them. You can literally see Farwell calcifying as he's sitting on the sidelines. I'd bet money on Wilkins or Lotulelei taking his job. Polk may give Maragos a run for his.