How Do You Rank The NFC Teams?

[Pandion Haliaetus]

In terms of what teams scare you the most of getting in the way or challenging the Seahawks quest to repeat.

#1 San Francisco: As long as the Seahawks can stay healthy this season, they don't seem as threatening as they were the last 2 years. However, they still have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL.

#2 Arizona Cardinals: Its not that any of the Card's offensive skill players scare me and I think their defense could take a step back but there is just something about Bruce Arians that instills fear and uncertainty in my being. Guy gives me Football creeps. But looking at the positives for them their O-Line is coming together which should help Palmer exploit defenses with Fiz and Floyd and their D-Line and Secondary are still filthy talented.

#3-#6 (No order just naming teams)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Some of you are looking at me like? But I think they have the talent to win the NFC South this year, Josh McNown is a good QB, Mike Glennon is not so bad either, they got do-it-all Doug Martin behind a revamped O-Line, 6-5 Mike Evans, 6-5 Vincent Jackson, and 6-5 Austin Sefarin-Jenkins as the top receiving targets. Their Defense is underrated, they added Michael Johnson and Clinton McDonald to Gerald McCoy, and I don't think they miss a beat with Verner replacing Revis. Above anything else, Lovie Smith is a damn good coach and the Bucs were stacked with talent before he even got there. And I guess to add the Bucs did give the Seahawks a run for their money last year.

Philadelphia Eagles: They are just unknown to us, that and Chip Kelly like Bruce Arians scares me. They kind of remind of the 2005 Seahawks. Solid to Great QB in Foles. Workhorse RB in McCoy with quality back-ups: Sproles and Polk. Solid but not spectacular group of WR/TEs but imo they have the best O-Line in the NFL (on the field). The defense needs work but it can improve they got some talent on that side of the ball, just young talent that need to step-up. and build chemistry with the vets.

Green Bay Packers: Another team similar to the Eagles. Great Offense that has balance and defense that has the pieces to improve quickly. The only thing though is their O-Line is not as good as the Eagles and also feel the Eagles play in the easier division.

New Orleans Saints: The thing about the Saints is they have a great team, but the Seahawks match-up well against them, we dominated them twice last year. They have potential to be better but I don't think they made that many significant changes. Brees is still a top QB but getting old, Brandon Cooks can replace Sproles but I think they took a step back with their O-Line which as always been a strength. I don't think their D is as good as their statistics indicate. They got a great D-Line, meh LB corps, solid enough secondary but the whole team is kind of getting long in the tooth in some places and they need young players to step-up moving forward.

#7 St. Louis Rams: Maybe a little too high but I feel Division rivals get special consideration since they are direct competition. Not that the Rams need it. They seemingly now have a very complete/competitive roster filled with quality players especially a scary very physical defense with no contest, the best front 7 in the NFL (including depth), the biggest question still remains.. is Sam Braford a franchise QB? He has no more excuses in 2014.

#8-#12 (in no order just naming teams.)

Carolina Panthers: A team that just won 12 games last year, is no better than 8th? Well, yeah... they probably have the 2nd best Front 7 in the NFL but that's all they have going for them. They have no WRs, no O-Line losing every starter but Kalil I believe, and no Secondary with Munnerlyn and Mikell moving on and Florence not being retained.. Their Offensive success is predecated on a currently shelved Cam Newton with an entirely new WR corps that he can't practice with and a RB corps that consists of 31 year old DeAngelo Williams and oft-injured Jonathon Stewart.

Chicago Bears: Great all-around Offense with an O-Line that's starting to come together paired with a sub-par defense. However, maybe Griffin/Allen make a difference on the D-Line but they keep holding onto the past imo and not getting young enough on that side of the ball and that could lead to injuries but no depth to step-up. They lost some ST flare by not retaining Hester. They are kind of a hit or miss team to me. Yet, they are team to keep an eye on as they have the potential and the pieces to be dangerous.

New York Giants: They weren't as bad as they were last year. I'm not sure for whatever reasons if Eli took his job serious enough. They lost Nicks or let him move on and drafted Odell Beckham to pair with Victor Cruz. They also added Dustin Keller who could be big for them. I liked the things they did on defense which was a strength in '13 but its weird seeing Tuck move on. They definately are going to need to get Jon Beason back healthy because he's the only intimitading player in that Corps. However, they do have a strength in that secondary, one of the best in the NFL on paper.

Detriots Lions: Another team built like Chicago Bears but you have to wonder about their O-Line, the back 7 of the defense, and the pass-rush. Just another hit or miss, feast or famine team.

#12-#15
Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Cowboys
Washington Redskins
Minnesota Vikings

 

[Rainger]

Not afraid of any team in NFC. The Key is getting to the playoffs. I think we can beat any NFC team on any given Sunday, the key would be getting HFA.

But even without that I think we can take any team but would prefer to play at home. If we get to the SB we will win.

I don't think any AFC team can beat this team in the SB as long as PC is running the show.

 

[Rainger]

sorry you asked for a ranking.

SF
Arizona
NO
Rams (they just have our number)

 

[ctrcat]

In terms of what teams scare you the most of getting in the way or challenging the Seahawks quest to repeat.

Carolina Panthers: A team that just won 12 games last year, is no better than 8th? Well, yeah... they probably have the 2nd best Front 7 in the NFL but that's all they have going for them. They have no WRs, no O-Line losing every starter but Kalil I believe, and no Secondary with Munnerlyn and Mikell moving on and Florence not being retained.. Their Offensive success is predecated on a currently shelved Cam Newton with an entirely new WR corps that he can't practice with and a RB corps that consists of 31 year old DeAngelo Williams and oft-injured Jonathon Stewart.

JMHO, but the only position that the Panthers will truly be worse, at least on paper, right now, is OT. Losing Gross after he was in the Pro Bowl is a big loss. JMHO, but upgrades were made everywhere else. On the O-line, multiple injuries to the guard position from last year should be healed and ready to go, as well as draft pick Trai Turner. While having questionable tackles is a problem no one wants to have, having a specimen like Cam to shed/elude/escape while having a stronger interior line will soften the blow somewhat.

Time will tell, and it is a mild setback with Cam's surgery, but I truly believe the WR corps will be better. Quite frankly there was nowhere to go but UP. There's a reason that no WR was retained, it's because they weren't worth the money or they flat out SUCKED (LaFell)! I believe that Benjamin, Cotchery, Avant, Underwood, TE Dickson will equal or (IMO surpass) the production (10 catches a game) of a nearly 35 year old Smith, Ginn, La'Fail', and Hixon.

Time will also tell in the secondary, but that wasn't a strength last year anyway. You mentioned Mikell and Florence but no one has signed them. FA's Harper, Cason, DeCoud, and the drafted Benwikere can at a minimum shoulder the load left by the aforementioned+Mitchell IMO.

Stewart is oft-injured on an absurd contract which does hurt other areas of the team (never said WR or S were great just not worse than last year), but has been injured so much there is ironically less wear and tear on him when/if he IS healthy (ala Thomas Davis).

Close games were won and lost last year (mostly won), but in 2011 and 2012 nearly EVERY close game was LOST (2-14 in one score games). Rivera and the young nucleus learned a lot and will certainly be tested in a division which improvements have been made as well, but there's way to much on the positive side to say they'll not be in the mix. JMO.

 

[davidonmi]

49ers
Packers
Saints
Cardinals
Those are the 4 for me

 

[Sherman4Prez]

The Cards are tough to gauge. Their OL is better with Vehldeer and Cooper anchoring the left side, but their defense took 2 huge hits with Washington AND Dansby not playing for them this year. Tough one, they could go either way.

 

[hawknation2014]

1. Seahawks
2. Packers
3. Saints
4. Rams
5. Niners

 

[Subzero717]

Niners
Cards
Saints
Packers
Rams

 

[loafoftatupu]

I can't decide. I suppose the Niners is an easy choice, but after that I can't really rate them. The Saints are likely 2, but the Packers and Cards are hard to figure out.

I see a little improvement on the Packers defense, but even my Packer fan coworker thinks that they are going to get gashed in the run. He seems to think that the Hawks are going to be the ones getting revenge for the MNF garbage and that the Hawks will break single game team rushing records on opening day.

The Cards could be bipolar. They just have a way of playing good football for portions of the season.

I have a suspicion that 2 teams are going to make some noise, but couldn't put them on the list. Chicago and Atlanta. With healthy receivers and a likely hit with Matthews buying time for Ryan I think they could be better than a lot of people think.

Chicago is intriguing. Jared Allen added up front and overall a pretty solid offense they could be trouble for the Packers in the north.

One last note, I am not ready to bury the Giants. I think that Coughlin is going to get another potential run out of that team and that Eli improves.

Niners
Saints- then a dropoff
Cards
Packers
Panthers
Philly

 

[Throwdown]

Niners, I mean they're realistically the only reason we may not get home playoff games

Saints, I know we whooped up on 'em twice, but that defense is going to be so much better.

Packers, I think we would probably beat their asses but you gotta respect 'em, even if I think their QB is a little girl.

Cardinals, the only team to beat us at home in how long? Their d-line somehow always does a great job vs Russell and Marshawn, its maddening as hell, hopefully thats different with the addition of Backpack Rich, and a healthy Percy.

Panthers, almost had us week 1 last season and almost had us in 2012, that defense is solid, iffy on the offense as there really is no threat at WR, and that vs the LOB should have every 12 salivating to watch

No one from the NFC East puts fear in me, they all soft.

 

[ctrcat]

^ Ironically also that the Panthers best pass catching threat, Greg Olsen, had multiple drops last year in the opener.

 

[onanygivensunday]

Here's my pre-TC prediction for the NFC playoffs seeding:

1. Seattle (13-3)
2. New Orleans (12-4)
3. Philadelphia (11-5)
4. Chicago (11-5)
5. San Francisco (12-4)
6. Green Bay (11-5)
7. Arizona (11-5)
8. Carolina (11-5)

Of the above, only SF and NO concern me... particularly if either of those have HFA in the playoffs.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

So no one else believes the Bucs can be scary good in 2014?

 

[ctrcat]

^ QB. Still the most important position on the field. McCown and Glennon are good backups who can win games but not even close to championships. A disservice to Buc fans really that they'll be just good enough to stay out of the "draft lottery" where they'd actually have a better chance to join the arms race at the all important position. Ditto Rams. Panthers get the nod over these teams on QB alone as their QBs simply aren't in the same stratosphere. JMO.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

Nah, Josh McCown is pretty solid and he played extraordinary well last season.

In the games, he had over 15 pass attempts he had 291 Y/G and 12 TDs to 1 INT in 6 starts. If you do the math over 16 starts that's:

4500+ yards, 32 TDs, 3 Ints

Obviously, you can project that certainy but you could range the possibilities and I feel McCown with 16 starts in Chicago's offense easily could have been 4000-4500 yard, 26+ TD, 6-10 Ints w/ 63+ Comp% QB.

In TB, he has not only enough weapons but players similar to Chicago , he has what should be as good of an O-Line he had in Chicago, and he has familarity with Lovie Smith. And OC Jeff Tedford has a pretty solid track record with QBs

DIA* RB Matt Forte/DIA* RB Doug Martin
6'3, 230 Brandon Marshall / 6'4, 230 Vincent Jackson
6'3 216 Ashlon Jeffrey/ 6'5, 225 Mike Evans
6'6 265 Martellus Bennett / 6-6, 265 Austin Sefarin-Jenkins

*DIA = Do-It-All

Not much of a drop-off in my opinion, maybe a learning curve because of the rookies but similar talent, and what's even better is that he doesn't have to play in the windy tundra of Chicago in Fall. Furthermore, McCown's the guy, he's in command, its his team... he doesn't have to take a backseat to Cutler... and I feel that he has intelligence and the understanding to sieze the opportunity in front of him and be that guy that everyone on the team can count on.

And even if McCown is just a game manager, I feel the running game is a strength with a healthy Martin behind a revamped O-Line, big WR/TE corps that can dominant in terms of blocking and that the Defense is an even bigger strength with Lovie Smith taking control assisted by Leslie Frazier at DC as well as the additions they've made to their D-Line, on paper they have one of the more solid, well-rounded Defensive Rosters in the NFL. Michael Johnson, Clinton McDonald, plus progression by Adrian Clayborn should help take pressure off Gerald McCoy. A dominating McCoy will help LaVonte David and Mason Foster clean-up and they are protected by a potentially lock-down Secondary with Verner, Banks, Barron, Goldson.

Just a lot of solid stuff coming out of TB, if any team can pull KC Chiefs turn around, from zero to hero, my money is on the Bucs... They were much better than their record last year, they have tremendous talent all over the field that can compete, and if not for Greg Schiano they most likely would have played to that potential but players aren't going to give 100% to horrible coaches especially the ones who are getting paid well

 

[ctrcat]

Only one problem-McCown will be 35 and a LARGE sample size says he's not a championship caliber QB.

 

[kearly]

Tampa is a team I really like, my only question is if McCown will regress to pre-Trestman levels now that he's back with Lovie Smith. That said, McCown favors big targets more than any QB in the game, and he's throwing to the biggest targets in the league (V-Jack, Evans, ASJ). Doug Martin should bounce back and if he doesn't his primary backup (who tore up Seattle before getting hurt) isn't too shabby either. Their defense has star players at all three levels, and now has the benefit of Smith's coaching, and Smith knows 4-3 defense as well as anyone.

It all hinges on McCown though. If he can't repeat last season's success then Tampa will probably be a 3rd place team at best.

Carolina was the NFC's 2nd best team last season. However, a lot of that improvement stemmed from a huge winning streak, and after they folded in the playoffs you wonder if they fully turned the corner or just got hot for a stretch.

They are going to have issues on offense unless Benjamin proves the doubters wrong and does so immediately. I think the defense will be just fine and will keep them in games for Cam to win with big plays.

The 49ers declined significantly last season by DVOA, and surprisingly a lot of that was because of erosion on defense. Kaepernick is a different QB with Crabtree and will probably threaten a 100 passer rating if his receivers stay healthy. Meanwhile their already declining defense is going to miss a few games from Aldon Smith and Navarro Bowman, if he does play, will not be 100%. I still see the 49ers as being a 11-12 win team, but Kaepernick will carry more of the load than he did previously to get there. Which means Seattle has a decent shot of going 2-2 or 3-3 against the 49ers this year, Thanksgiving game be damned.

The Saints have never won fewer than seven games during the Payton/Brees era, and they've won 11+ in four of the last five seasons. They signed, IMO, the most talented and in-his-prime UFA in all of free agency this year, Jairus Byrd.

The Matt Ryan Falcons have always been a team that wins purely through passing offense, almost like a better version of the Detroit Lions. Julio Jones' injury had the most profound impact I've ever seen a non-QB have. The Falcons "should" bounce back and win 10+ games with a healthy pass offense, but there was something about the Falcons last season that definitely had a 2008 Seahawks feel to it. The 2008 Seahawks had excuses, but it just felt like that team was exposed more than unlucky.

Atlanta is the hardest team to predict in 2014.

The Cowboys, Eagles, and Redskins all seem like good bets to replace last year's performances. I think the Eagles decline just slightly in the win column due to teams adjusting to Nick Foles and the likely unsustainable fact that the team won 10 games last year with a pretty bad defense.

The Giants though seem like a sleeper to steal that division. Manning throws a lot of picks but 2013 was clearly an outlier. Their RB situation was a huge mess last season and has since been upgraded. Their defense was top 10 range and made some nice acquisitions during the offseason. Coughlin is one of the NFL's best coaches.

Arizona I respect, but am not buying. Their defensive line was okay but not amazing, and their secondary is probably the most over-rated in the sport. People treat their defense like it's elite because it kicked our asses in one game, but it's not, it's just merely above average on the whole with fantastic coaching. The strength of that defense was its LB group, which has now lost their two best players, Dansby and Washington. Up front their two best players are both ancient by NFL standards (Dockett and Abraham). Their secondary makes plays but gives up way too many.

Carson Palmer turns 35 at the end of the season, after all he's been through it's a surprise he's not older. He probably has the 2nd weakest arm in the NFL, as showcased by his 4 INT victory over the Seahawks. Ellington is maybe the best 3rd down back in the game, but I don't see him as a viable workhorse back. Their OL has some talent, but hasn't accomplished anything just yet. They have a solid receiving corp. They have the ingredients to be a decent offense, but the odds of Palmer getting hurt or ineffective are pretty high, and his backups are mostly terrible. I see Palmer as being a bit like old-Hasselbeck. If he's 100% healthy he's decent, but one little knick and he'll turn into a pile of crap.

Let's not forget either that Arizona's 10 win record last season came thanks to a hot streak. The 2011 Cardinals finished hot too. Not to say hot streaks can't be good indicators, because they can be. But I look at that team and they just feel like an inflated balloon, like the Mariners during a year when they play above .500 baseball. That plus most of the best players at the most important positions for this team are OLD.

The Rams, **** no. They've been the hipster pick for ages, and it's always been fool's gold for one reason: Sam Bradford. Look up Bradford's career line and compare it to the reviled Christian Ponder. They are practically the same guy. Okay, two reasons- the coaching staff is dominated by defensive minds who unlike Carroll, lack the ability to make vanilla taste delicious.

Now, the Rams defensive line is maybe the best in the game, and certainly the best in the game for pass rush. I thought Aaron Donald was at least the 3rd best defensive player in the draft, and he will make their nickle packages the most lethal in the NFL, maybe in history. Which is great, except that their back seven is mediocre at best, and then you have all those issues on offense.

Also, though I like Zac Stacy and talked him up months before he took a snap for the Rams, he really does have the tools of a late round RB and there were a lot of big games he had where it seemed like his production was completely at odds with his talent. He has good vision and good size and that's pretty much it. Sure, it's worked for Alfred Morris, but this isn't something you see often in the NFL, which makes me think Stacy could be a candidate for regression in 2014.

In the NFC North, the Packers are a safe bet to win again, that division went from black and blue to super-finesse so quickly.

I think Chicago is in for a fall. Trestman is an offensive genius, but it's hard not to be alarmed by the swift decline of that defense. With a few games left in 2012, the Bears were threatening to have the #1 DVOA defense of all time, and just one year later that same defense was among the worst in the league.

Also, a big part of what success Chicago did experience was the surprisingly great performance of McCown, who left in free agency.

Let's not forget either that the NFC North was the most winnable division in the NFC last year and the Bears still blew chance after chance against mediocre teams to seal the deal.

The Lions are the NFC's 2nd most finesse team after Atlanta. I love how Reggie Bush compliments that offense and I think Golden Tate will be a strong addition for them. But... they went from bad to worse by ditching Jim Schwartz for Jim Caldwell, who'd like us to forget how much of a doormat he turned the Raven's offense into. I didn't think it was possible for Detroit to be more finesse after changing coaches, but Caldwell's track record of precision over toughness will take the Lions boom or bust features to new heights. And when they face one of the actual powerhouses of the NFC, they will almost surely be in for a huge ass-kicking.

The Vikings just seem like kind of a bad team in general, but I can't label them the NFC's worst until we know more about their new QB. Bridgewater is not a development guy, he's a pass-fail QB who's basically going to be close to his best as a rookie. If Bridgewater can be a solidly above average QB then you have to respect Minny's chances. Minny actually kicked a few teams asses late last season during the brief moments when QB play wasn't a glaring issue. The Vikings have quietly been among the NFL's better drafting teams in recent years. They should suck, but I wouldn't say their 2014 season is doomed by any means.

My NFC rankings (the number next to each team is how many wins I would guess each team to win on average through 100 simulated seasons, with outlier seasons removed):

1. Seattle (13.0)
2. New Orleans (11.5)
3. San Franscisco (11.5)
4. Green Bay (11.5)
5. Carolina (10)
6. Eagles (9.5)
7. Tampa (9)
8. Giants (8.5)
9. Atlanta (8.5)
10. Lions (7.5)
11. Bears (7)
12. Cowboys (7)
13. Arizona (6.5)
14. Rams (6.5)
15. Minnesota (5.5)
16. Redskins (5.5)

 

[hawknation2014]

Carson Palmer turns 35 at the end of the season, after all he's been through it's a surprise he's not older. He probably has the 2nd weakest arm in the NFL, as showcased by his 4 INT victory over the Seahawks.

You're telling me this dude has the 2nd weakest arm in the NFL?


That seems like a mild exaggeration to me. Palmer has always been an INT machine. When he first came out, he had one of the stronger arms in the league. His arm strength has regressed with injuries, but he's still in the top half of the league in arm strength (and far from the weakest). Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Alex Smith, etc. all have much weaker arms than Palmer. None of those guys would even come close to completing a pass with that sort of height/velocity.

Also, what do his four picks have to do with arm strength, since they all occurred on short pass attempts while he was under duress?

 

[kearly]

First off, that's not a muscle throw in the GIF. Not much zip on that throw, especially for a guy that was able to step into it and give it all he had. Not that it needed to be. It was a good throw and a better catch. It was also the only successful deep pass he had in that game, and Maxwell still got a hand on it.

Arm strength means different things on different passes. With short and especially intermediate, it means velocity. With long throws, it can mean distance too, but when we talk about arm, we are talking the ability to use velocity to force the football into tiny windows. Palmer's actually lacked arm strength for some time and his recent INT numbers reflect his inability to force throws with pure arm strength.

Another way to measure an arm is to look at the kind of throws a QB makes. The throw Wilson made to Rice for a TD against Arizona is a great example of arm strength because he couldn't step into the throw at all and was off balance, and it went about 45 yards on a rope. Or the freakish throw Kaepernick made to Boldin to score over ET in the NFCCG. You just don't see Palmer making those kinds of throws.

Palmer's velocity in recent years has not been good. I would also disagree about Gabbert, Smith and Dalton's arm strength. Dalton's arm has always been pretty solid, perhaps sub-median, but not awful. The fact that he's thrown for so many yards and TDs as primarily a limited 1st read QB is kind of proof that is arm can't be all that bad. Smith may be a game manager and he may not be consistent, but his intermediate zip is well above average. Gabbert is a good athlete with a solid arm but is a total mess between the ears. Ponder and Fitzpatrick have very weak arms, but they aren't starters going into 2014 so I didn't include them.

The weakest arm in the league by far belongs to Manning, who just re-wrote the record books. So it doesn't doom Palmer, though I do trust QBs with very low arm strength less than most because in addition to the INT issues they have less to give in the event of injury. And Palmer gets injured, a lot.

Regarding the 4 INT game, that is where I disagree the most. The first and second interceptions were intermediate range throws that were both picked off because they took too long to arrive. The third interception was tipped at the LOS and it might be this was just a bad throw, but QBs with weaker arms do tend to suffer more tipped throws. The last interception is debatable, but i personally think he got the pass out of his hand just before the hit and tried to float it to a guy. Had he actually been hit before releasing then the pass would have been underthrown instead of overthrown. In either event, thowing a duck with a parachute strapped to its back was probably not the best idea in the world with Sherman covering.

Anyway, I hope I'm not being too harsh on Palmer, who did have a good arm before getting Tommy John surgery in 2009. His arm clearly wasn't the same after that, and when he threatened retirement after 2010 it's legitimate to wonder how much of that was due to his diminished throwing ability. When the Raiders traded for Palmer during the 2011 season, Palmer nearly sat out his first start because he felt his arm wasn't ready yet for high velocity throws. In retrospect, he should have (8/21, 0 TD, 3 INT).

He is a good player and a tough guy, but there isn't much left in the tank for his right arm, and hasn't been for some time.

 

[loafoftatupu]

I am in a lot of agreement with Kearly's breakdown of AZ. I think Palmer can still throw well, but I think overall he is more of a liability than he is productive.

I agree with the secondary assessment also. Peterson is a fantastic athlete and versatile player, but he still gets toasted in coverage and is only one guy. I guess being a Hawks fan makes all other secondaries look average.

Where I am uncertain is Chicago. I think that they could be trouble for other teams in the North. I'm probably wrong, but to me they look like they could be better than they get credit for.