From The Athletic's Austin Mock
3. Seattle Seahawks
Odds to make the playoffs: 68%Odds to win division: 49%
Odds to clinch first-round bye: 12%
OK. This is where the rankings get tough. It’s pretty close between the Seahawks and Vikings for me, and despite the Vikings securing the more impressive wins (beating the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans) the past two weeks, I’m giving the edge to Seattle.
Coach Mike Macdonald’s first season couldn’t have gotten off to a better start, and his defensive prowess is already evident. The Seahawks defense leads the league in EPA/play and percentage of plays that go for at least 10 yards. Sure, the opposing offenses they’ve faced haven’t been top-notch, but the pure dominance means something. Heading into the season, my model projected them to be around league average, but they’ve already moved up into the top five. Maybe I’m too bullish, but typically, dominating bad teams is indicative of future success.
If the defense can play at a top-10 level, the Seahawks are going to be a threat in the NFC playoffs. QB Geno Smith isn’t going to win an MVP, but he can be more than just efficient throwing to the likes of DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. My confidence in the Seahawks might be premature, but the numbers are what they are, and the Seahawks are currently my favorite to win the NFC West. Which leads us to …
Betting breakout
The Seahawks have gotten off to a 3-0 start while the rest of the NFC West sits at 1-2. With the Rams’ injury situation a mess, I think there is a good chance the Seahawks are the second-best team in the division. My projections have the Seahawks as closer to a coin flip to win the division, so the Seahawks at +185 is plenty of value.Our pick: Seahawks to win the NFC West (+185)
