Geno looked crazy good tonight

[Maelstrom787]

He is the weakest link on the team.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I have had him blocked for a long time So no idea what he says.

You sure do love keeping my name in your mouth for having "blocked" me, big guy.

 

[pittpnthrs]

So is winning 3 SB's in 4 years.
Yeah, those 14 picks really hurt him.

Exactly. Mahomes can afford 14 picks in a season because he still wins Super Bowls.

 

[Double Tribble]

What in the world are you talking about? Who in the world said that? Where was that even implied? This is just you dodging engaging on substance and falling back to a tired strawman.

I get it. You know who Patrick Mahomes is. We all do. Saying his name over and over does not constitute an argument.



Russ continually won because he started his career with an all-time great defense and a future HOF running back. Wins are not a QB stat! We need to stop treating them that way. Saying your only measure of whether a QB is good or not is 'wins' is the same as saying you don't really have any idea how to evaluate a QB.

To clarify, nobody is saying Geno is better than prime Russ. He's not. Stop having that argument.

But you are here happily giving Russ credit for being on a team that was great in ways he had nothing to do with but holding Geno responsible for a team being bad in ways he also has nothing to do with.

Then we agree to disagree. That's fine and good, and makes for healthy discussion. Russ continually pulled rabbits out of hats. His improvisation skills were a major part of his game. He won many games for us that would have been lost otherwise, regardless of what his defense was doing. So in my opinion, the qb can be and often is responsible for wins. That's why it's the most important position in football.

 

[Double Tribble]

started to rewatch last year's games and man they are hard to watch. The defense is just so bad. Ability to run the ball was nearly nonexistent and our red zone offense had to be the worst in the league. Geno should be good enough to get us a playoff win if the defense actually looks like a real defense, and we can run the ball with a modicum of success. Geno throws absolute lasers; he is VERY accurate, and I think throws the best-looking ball in the league. I'd like to see him scramble more when plays break down and not wait until it's too late.

He does indeed throw darts at times, and his accuracy is great.

 

[Double Tribble]

Several. While I'm luke warm on Geno, I think he's gonna' have a hell of a season compared to last year. More to work with, a more disciplined team, and one hell of an offense. Plus, Grubb.

Let's hope.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Exactly. Mahomes can afford 14 picks in a season because he still wins Super Bowls.

No one is trying to say he can't afford them. The point is that, if we're using statistics to quantify performance, the difference between an "unacceptable" Geno Smith and the most talented quarterback potentially in the history of the NFL last year was...

(Listing the better performer and the difference between the two)

Games Started: Mahomes +1
Passing attempts: Mahomes +98
Completion Percentage: Mahomes +2.5%
Passing yards: Mahomes +559
Yards per attempt: Geno +0.3
Yards per completion: Geno +0.8
Passing TDs: Mahomes +7
Interceptions: Geno -5
Passer Rating: Mahomes +0.5
Sacks: Mahomes -4 (Geno 31, Mahomes 27)

Let's check some advanced stats from PFR:

Average depth of target per attempt:
Geno 7.0, Mahomes 6.5

Average air yardage per completion (how far the average pass traveled before it was caught):
Geno 5.9, Mahomes 4.1

Average pocket time: Geno Smith -0.1s (this is time to throw OR pressure, whichever comes first. Part OL stat, part QB stat, part scheme stat).


From the data of the comparison, we can arrive at a few conclusions given what we know about the Chiefs offense and what we know about the 2023 Seahawks.

1. Geno Smith was pushing the ball significantly deeper than Mahomes on average, indicating the differences in the schemes.

2. Geno Smith nearly equaled Mahomes sack totals despite facing more pressure

3. Mahomes paltry air production compared to his usual is not just a product of his receivers, but a product of decreased scoring potential through the air around the entire league in 2023. Geno was not immune to this, as most of the passers in the league saw much worse production than in previous years.

The 2023 Chiefs had a stellar offensive line, and they had what was likely the best defense in the league (which performed similarly to the LOB in the playoffs, allowing only 13.7 points per game).

So, I pose the question again with another mountain of supporting data:

If Geno Smith already led the team to winning seasons twice while they suffered with a terrible defense and terrible offensive line, how does it follow in any logical way that he'd be incapable of winning more if provided something like the Chiefs defense and OL?

Saying this team can't win more than they have with Geno is basically saying that line play and defense straight up do not matter, and that's obviously horseshit. It's preposterous.

Also - before anyone says it, go ahead and read again. Nowhere am I claiming whatsoever that Geno is superior to Mahomes.

 

[pittpnthrs]

No one is trying to say he can't afford them. The point is that, if we're using statistics to quantify performance, the difference between an "unacceptable" Geno Smith and the most talented quarterback potentially in the history of the NFL last year was...

(Listing the better performer and the difference between the two)

Games Started: Mahomes +1
Passing attempts: Mahomes +98
Completion Percentage: Mahomes +2.5%
Passing yards: Mahomes +559
Yards per attempt: Geno +0.3
Yards per completion: Geno +0.8
Passing TDs: Mahomes +7
Interceptions: Geno -5
Passer Rating: Mahomes +0.5
Sacks: Mahomes -4 (Geno 31, Mahomes 27)

Let's check some advanced stats from PFR:

Average depth of target per attempt:
Geno 7.0, Mahomes 6.5

Average air yardage per completion (how far the average pass traveled before it was caught):
Geno 5.9, Mahomes 4.1

Average pocket time: Geno Smith -0.1s (this is time to throw OR pressure, whichever comes first. Part OL stat, part QB stat, part scheme stat).


From the data of the comparison, we can arrive at a few conclusions given what we know about the Chiefs offense and what we know about the 2023 Seahawks.

1. Geno Smith was pushing the ball significantly deeper than Mahomes on average, indicating the differences in the schemes.

2. Geno Smith nearly equaled Mahomes sack totals despite facing more pressure

3. Mahomes paltry air production compared to his usual is not just a product of his receivers, but a product of decreased scoring potential through the air around the entire league in 2023. Geno was not immune to this, as most of the passers in the league saw much worse production than in previous years.

The 2023 Chiefs had a stellar offensive line, and they had what was likely the best defense in the league (which performed similarly to the LOB in the playoffs, allowing only 13.7 points per game).

So, I pose the question again with another mountain of supporting data:

If Geno Smith already led the team to winning seasons twice while they suffered with a terrible defense and terrible offensive line, how does it follow in any logical way that he'd be incapable of winning more if provided something like the Chiefs defense and OL?

Saying this team can't win more than they have with Geno is basically saying that line play and defense straight up do not matter, and that's obviously horseshit. It's preposterous.

Also - before anyone says it, go ahead and read again. Nowhere am I claiming whatsoever that Geno is superior to Mahomes.

Nice post. Simple question to you. Do you think the Chiefs win the Super Bowl last year if Geno Smith was their QB?

 

[hox]

Nice post. Simple question to you. Do you think the Chiefs win the Super Bowl last year if Geno Smith was their QB?

Possibly, yes.

Likewise, would Mahomes win a SB with the 2023 Seahawks roster?

Highly doubtful, no.

 

[Hawknight]

Possibly, yes.

Likewise, would Mahomes win a SB with the 2023 Seahawks roster?

Highly doubtful, no.

Especially with the coaches which I think was more at fault last season.

 

[hox]

Especially with the coaches which I think was more at fault last season.

Agreed. Reid is a vastly better playcaller than Waldron was.

 

[Double Tribble]

Saying this team can't win more than they have with Geno is basically saying that line play and defense straight up do not matter, and that's obviously horseshit. It's preposterous.

No one is saying he can't. Many of us are simply saying that he hasn't proven yet that he can, and past performance is usually an indicator of future results. So, it would seem logical and prudent to wait until he shows us that he can before we start the parades.

 

[Hawknight]

No one is saying he can't. Many of us are simply saying that he hasn't proven yet that he can, and past performance is usually an indicator of future results. So, it would seem logical and prudent to wait until he shows us that he can before we start the parades.

I agree...I'm not a huge Geno Smith fan; supportive as he is the Seahawks QB currently, but I'll add myself to the wait and see camp before making any final decisions about the future success of Geno Smith. That being said, I would love to see how Howell would do front and center with the new coaching staff and the current offense. Howell-ever, no ill wishes towards Geno.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Nice post. Simple question to you. Do you think the Chiefs win the Super Bowl last year if Geno Smith was their QB?

It's hard to say given the massive amount of variables, but I think they'd at least have a great chance. If Geno and Kelce developed a rapport, I think they'd be deadly enough to carry the offense through the relative lack of receiver support. Pacheco ran quite efficiently behind a very good offensive line.

I don't think Geno Smith is as talented as Mahomes, but I do think that Geno Smith has a relatively rare level of accuracy and a knack for putting high-difficulty throws on the money.

It's like the Lions. They, realistically, should've been in the Super Bowl over SF - and I remain unconvinced that Goff is a superior talent to Geno Smith. I think Geno would be as good as or better than Jared Goff if provided the Detroit Lions supporting cast, featuring an absolute wall of an OL, Amon-Ra, and their great rushing game.

 

[Torc]

Then we agree to disagree. That's fine and good, and makes for healthy discussion. Russ continually pulled rabbits out of hats. His improvisation skills were a major part of his game. He won many games for us that would have been lost otherwise, regardless of what his defense was doing. So in my opinion, the qb can be and often is responsible for wins. That's why it's the most important position in football.

Yeah, Russ was great at getting us out of situations that HE got us into. I've posted the numbers before so I won't go digging for them again, but Russ SUCKED in the first and third quarters. At one point we had a 20 game streak going of not scoring a TD in the first drive of the game. The fact that Russ had a great defense supporting him for much of his career is what allowed him to have those amazing rabbit-out-of-hat comebacks.

There are very few QBs that I'd rather have running my team at the end of a game than 4th quarter Russ in his prime. But the fact is, we needed those comebacks because we were behind in most games, whoevers fault that was (Pete, Schotty, Russ)

 

[94Smith]

No one is trying to say he can't afford them. The point is that, if we're using statistics to quantify performance, the difference between an "unacceptable" Geno Smith and the most talented quarterback potentially in the history of the NFL last year was...

(Listing the better performer and the difference between the two)

Games Started: Mahomes +1
Passing attempts: Mahomes +98
Completion Percentage: Mahomes +2.5%
Passing yards: Mahomes +559
Yards per attempt: Geno +0.3
Yards per completion: Geno +0.8
Passing TDs: Mahomes +7
Interceptions: Geno -5
Passer Rating: Mahomes +0.5
Sacks: Mahomes -4 (Geno 31, Mahomes 27)

Let's check some advanced stats from PFR:

Average depth of target per attempt:
Geno 7.0, Mahomes 6.5

Average air yardage per completion (how far the average pass traveled before it was caught):
Geno 5.9, Mahomes 4.1

Average pocket time: Geno Smith -0.1s (this is time to throw OR pressure, whichever comes first. Part OL stat, part QB stat, part scheme stat).


From the data of the comparison, we can arrive at a few conclusions given what we know about the Chiefs offense and what we know about the 2023 Seahawks.

1. Geno Smith was pushing the ball significantly deeper than Mahomes on average, indicating the differences in the schemes.

2. Geno Smith nearly equaled Mahomes sack totals despite facing more pressure

3. Mahomes paltry air production compared to his usual is not just a product of his receivers, but a product of decreased scoring potential through the air around the entire league in 2023. Geno was not immune to this, as most of the passers in the league saw much worse production than in previous years.

The 2023 Chiefs had a stellar offensive line, and they had what was likely the best defense in the league (which performed similarly to the LOB in the playoffs, allowing only 13.7 points per game).

So, I pose the question again with another mountain of supporting data:

If Geno Smith already led the team to winning seasons twice while they suffered with a terrible defense and terrible offensive line, how does it follow in any logical way that he'd be incapable of winning more if provided something like the Chiefs defense and OL?

Saying this team can't win more than they have with Geno is basically saying that line play and defense straight up do not matter, and that's obviously horseshit. It's preposterous.

Also - before anyone says it, go ahead and read again. Nowhere am I claiming whatsoever that Geno is superior to Mahomes.

I think last year regular season was a down year for Mahomes. Kelce was hurt for most of the regular season and they had no talent at WR. I think his air yards, TD production will be much higher this year with a healthy Kelce, Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown. Geno had way more talented pass catchers than Mahomes for the bulk of the season

 

[Torc]

I think last year regular season was a down year for Mahomes. Kelce was hurt for most of the regular season and they had no talent at WR. I think his air yards, TD production will be much higher this year with a healthy Kelce, Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown. Geno had way more talented pass catchers than Mahomes for the bulk of the season

Totally this. Mahomes had an amazing season because he was able to forget the drops and poor receiver play. I was so impressed at how he was able to forget the last play and put the ball in his receivers' hands over and over despite the drops. Statistically, off year for him. In every other way he proved he's the QB we all think he is.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I think last year regular season was a down year for Mahomes. Kelce was hurt for most of the regular season and they had no talent at WR. I think his air yards, TD production will be much higher this year with a healthy Kelce, Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown. Geno had way more talented pass catchers than Mahomes for the bulk of the season

This is true. They were pretty sad in the offensive skill player department. Rashee Rice is a little underrated on the field I think, but not many weapons there.

I'd definitely still rather be Mahomes than Geno in terms of which team I'd prefer to be dropped into, but this is fair

 

[Tech Worlds]

Give Geno the bag now!

 

[pittpnthrs]

Possibly, yes.

Likewise, would Mahomes win a SB with the 2023 Seahawks roster?

Highly doubtful, no.

We agree to disagree. If the roles were reversed, I see KC getting knocked out of the post season and Seattle being in the post season. It's fun to imagine Mahomes with the receiving corps the Seahawks have.