Pandion Haliaetus
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Doug Baldwin has caught 61 of 80 targets for 860 yards and 11 TDs. Baldwin has a 76.25% catch effiency this season on 14.1 yards per reception. This Doug is A. DB (more on that later)
I chose two players to match target effiency with the same age (27) and similar stature (about 5'10, about 185-195) to compare and contrast against Baldwin.
For the sake of arguement, I used two other hypothetical Baldwins to slightly normalize the higher target rates.
B. DB: 75% (-1.25) catch eff at 12 (-2.1) yards per catch
C. DB: 70% (-6.25) catch eff at 14 (-.1) yards per catch
First Comparison: Golden Tate
(Tate is listed at 202 but imo he looks like he has dropped some muscle mass the last two years, Id put him at 195)
Tate has 111 Targets for 76-675-4.
Baldwin @ 111 Targets in Seahawks Offense...
A.DB: 85-1193-15
B.DB: 83-999-15
C.DB: 78-1088-14
If Baldwin was on the Lions he'd be on pace for the type of season Tate had last year. Losing Tate sucked but I think ADB is better, more natural, more consistent. If they were choosing between the two, I think they kept the right one. Also, Tyler Lockett probably isnt a Seahawk if Tate was still on the team with Lockett becoming Baldwin, JR in effiency and work ethic. (Tate would still be here, if the team hadnt traded for Harvin... Horrible trade in hindsight, yeah, but its slowly working itself out for the better)
Second Comparison: Antonio Brown
(Brown is listed at 181 but id put him in the least around 185. NFL databases hardly update if ever from league entry weight)
Brown has 147 Targets for 100-1397-7
Baldwin @ 147 Targets in Seahawks Offense:
A.DB: 112-1580-20
B.DB: 110-1323-19
C.DB: 103-1440-18
I feel like in both comparisons you'd realistically cap Baldwin's performance at those target rate thusly making it season total without 3 games to go.
Baldwin just needs 140 yards to reach 1,000 (47 ypg)
240 to reach 1100 (80 ypg)
340 to reach 1200 (114 ypg)
Lets say Wilson to Baldwin connection keeps dominating for 300 yards, 7 TDs in the final 3.
With DB finishing on 110 targets for 83 catches, 1160, 18 TDs with a 75% catch rate.. Scoring TDs a little more than 20% of his catches.
He'd surely have to be in the Pro Bowl mix from a replacement standpoint.
But I wonder if All-Pro voters could look at effeciency stats like I just did, and understand that Baldwin has been doing what he has been doing on 40 to 90 less targets than the guys who rank top 10 in that respect. And maybe he can darkhorse is way in.
Yes, 90. Julio Jones leads the league in targets at 168. 88 more than DB.
Hypothetically, if DB did finish with 16-20 TDs and led all WRs in that category, I wonder if he would be the first player in NFL history to lead his offensive position in scoring (plus catch eff and scoring eff) and not get either an initial Pro-Bowl bid or at least an All-Pro berth. Because that is looking like a very realistic scenario.
Doug Baldwin. Underrated Effiency Ninja.
I chose two players to match target effiency with the same age (27) and similar stature (about 5'10, about 185-195) to compare and contrast against Baldwin.
For the sake of arguement, I used two other hypothetical Baldwins to slightly normalize the higher target rates.
B. DB: 75% (-1.25) catch eff at 12 (-2.1) yards per catch
C. DB: 70% (-6.25) catch eff at 14 (-.1) yards per catch
First Comparison: Golden Tate
(Tate is listed at 202 but imo he looks like he has dropped some muscle mass the last two years, Id put him at 195)
Tate has 111 Targets for 76-675-4.
Baldwin @ 111 Targets in Seahawks Offense...
A.DB: 85-1193-15
B.DB: 83-999-15
C.DB: 78-1088-14
If Baldwin was on the Lions he'd be on pace for the type of season Tate had last year. Losing Tate sucked but I think ADB is better, more natural, more consistent. If they were choosing between the two, I think they kept the right one. Also, Tyler Lockett probably isnt a Seahawk if Tate was still on the team with Lockett becoming Baldwin, JR in effiency and work ethic. (Tate would still be here, if the team hadnt traded for Harvin... Horrible trade in hindsight, yeah, but its slowly working itself out for the better)
Second Comparison: Antonio Brown
(Brown is listed at 181 but id put him in the least around 185. NFL databases hardly update if ever from league entry weight)
Brown has 147 Targets for 100-1397-7
Baldwin @ 147 Targets in Seahawks Offense:
A.DB: 112-1580-20
B.DB: 110-1323-19
C.DB: 103-1440-18
I feel like in both comparisons you'd realistically cap Baldwin's performance at those target rate thusly making it season total without 3 games to go.
Baldwin just needs 140 yards to reach 1,000 (47 ypg)
240 to reach 1100 (80 ypg)
340 to reach 1200 (114 ypg)
Lets say Wilson to Baldwin connection keeps dominating for 300 yards, 7 TDs in the final 3.
With DB finishing on 110 targets for 83 catches, 1160, 18 TDs with a 75% catch rate.. Scoring TDs a little more than 20% of his catches.
He'd surely have to be in the Pro Bowl mix from a replacement standpoint.
But I wonder if All-Pro voters could look at effeciency stats like I just did, and understand that Baldwin has been doing what he has been doing on 40 to 90 less targets than the guys who rank top 10 in that respect. And maybe he can darkhorse is way in.
Yes, 90. Julio Jones leads the league in targets at 168. 88 more than DB.
Hypothetically, if DB did finish with 16-20 TDs and led all WRs in that category, I wonder if he would be the first player in NFL history to lead his offensive position in scoring (plus catch eff and scoring eff) and not get either an initial Pro-Bowl bid or at least an All-Pro berth. Because that is looking like a very realistic scenario.
Doug Baldwin. Underrated Effiency Ninja.
