keasley45
Well-known member
A few years back, when Russ was here there was much debate about how explosive our offense could (and needed to) be to keep up with the top teams in the league. Russ called for it, fans craved it. The high powered passing attack.
But there was always the cautionary thread about being careful about what you wish for - that the league, like life, was cyclical and what is popular today would be less popular in the not too distant future.
www.teamrankings.com
The above chart ranks teams in 2024 based on run pass ratio. Where 3 years ago, teams like the Chiefs passed at a 61% rate, they are now much more reliant on the run, at 56%. Pittsburgh, who in 2021 passed at a 63% rate, has swung back at an extreme rate to 46%. The Chargers - 63% to now, 52%. Those are just a few.
There are the steadfast examples like SF who continue (to their credit) to adhere to a balanced attack that leverages dynamic runs AND passes.
And there are teams that pass more now than they did before, like the Bengals
Buffalo, Sf, Minn, AZ, LAC, Wash, GB, Balt, Det, Pitt, and, Philadelphia are the most balanced / run reliant teams, ranked 10 to 1.
Suffice it to say they represent a cross section of some of the top teams in the league. Of course, one can make the argument that good teams dont HAVE to pass as much and so the numbers are tilted a bit. I think that's true to a degree. Buy by and large, most of the teams above are BUILT to run more.
On the flip side...
LV, Dallas, Cleveland, Seattle, NYJ, Cinc, Rams, Jax, Giants and Carolina round out the top 10 pass dependent teams. Ranked 1 to 10.
Of that group, i would say the Jets and Browns are arguably the teams most intentionally built to run more than pass. You could make the argument that we are as well - or at least built to be balanced - and just arent accomplishing it.
In 2021, the most run dependent teams were
Den, Chi, Wash, NE, Clev, Ind, Sf, Ten, NO, Phi, ranked 10 to 1.
Granted, there's Philly, who like SF has stuck to the ground game (Hurts helps that considerably), but the rest of that list is hardly a ranking of NFL elite .
In 2024, if you run more, you are likely among the best teams in the league.
Then there are the Seahawks, who among the most pass happy teams, are the most successful in terms of W/L. We SHOULD suck, but are actually succeeding, which in my opinion is a credit to THE CREATIVE POTENTIAL of Grubb in the passing game and Geno's ability as a QB.
What does all of this say? That we are zigging when everyone else who is successful is zagging. And that success, now more than any point in the last 5 years is predicated not on a pass heavy offense, but rather on one that can run and pass well, but that has a reliable, if not elite run game.
Pete always said we need to run more and do it better. Yet, in 2021 we jettisoned our run more / run better capable OC in favor of Waldron, who couldnt run (or call a coherent game), and now has been followed by Grubb, who (also coming from a pass based program) is seemengly equally incapable of putting together a competent run game strategy.
What does that mean for our immediate future? At best, we have an uphill battle to do anything meaningful this year if we are insistant on relying on a pass game to win for us. It says pretty clearly that defenses have adjusted to stop the pass, and offenses have shifted to exploit the run.
We are throwing right into the strength of today's NFL defenses. You could make the argument that maybe staying the course will pay dividends as defenses in the coming years continue to shift toward more run based schemes and profiles for players. But is that really sustainable?
JS said last offseason that the trend in the league is shifting back to hard nosed offense and that he wanted to be a team that could pound the ball on the ground.
If thats what he wanted, what we have certainly isnt it.
What we have is a system that, if you look at trends, isnt likely to succeed if its going to rely on a QB to carry a team to success - not because that player isnt capable, but rather because its likely not possible.
But there was always the cautionary thread about being careful about what you wish for - that the league, like life, was cyclical and what is popular today would be less popular in the not too distant future.
NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Passing Play Percentage | TeamRankings.com
NFL Football passing play percentage, by team.
www.teamrankings.com
The above chart ranks teams in 2024 based on run pass ratio. Where 3 years ago, teams like the Chiefs passed at a 61% rate, they are now much more reliant on the run, at 56%. Pittsburgh, who in 2021 passed at a 63% rate, has swung back at an extreme rate to 46%. The Chargers - 63% to now, 52%. Those are just a few.
There are the steadfast examples like SF who continue (to their credit) to adhere to a balanced attack that leverages dynamic runs AND passes.
And there are teams that pass more now than they did before, like the Bengals
Buffalo, Sf, Minn, AZ, LAC, Wash, GB, Balt, Det, Pitt, and, Philadelphia are the most balanced / run reliant teams, ranked 10 to 1.
Suffice it to say they represent a cross section of some of the top teams in the league. Of course, one can make the argument that good teams dont HAVE to pass as much and so the numbers are tilted a bit. I think that's true to a degree. Buy by and large, most of the teams above are BUILT to run more.
On the flip side...
LV, Dallas, Cleveland, Seattle, NYJ, Cinc, Rams, Jax, Giants and Carolina round out the top 10 pass dependent teams. Ranked 1 to 10.
Of that group, i would say the Jets and Browns are arguably the teams most intentionally built to run more than pass. You could make the argument that we are as well - or at least built to be balanced - and just arent accomplishing it.
In 2021, the most run dependent teams were
Den, Chi, Wash, NE, Clev, Ind, Sf, Ten, NO, Phi, ranked 10 to 1.
Granted, there's Philly, who like SF has stuck to the ground game (Hurts helps that considerably), but the rest of that list is hardly a ranking of NFL elite .
In 2024, if you run more, you are likely among the best teams in the league.
Then there are the Seahawks, who among the most pass happy teams, are the most successful in terms of W/L. We SHOULD suck, but are actually succeeding, which in my opinion is a credit to THE CREATIVE POTENTIAL of Grubb in the passing game and Geno's ability as a QB.
What does all of this say? That we are zigging when everyone else who is successful is zagging. And that success, now more than any point in the last 5 years is predicated not on a pass heavy offense, but rather on one that can run and pass well, but that has a reliable, if not elite run game.
Pete always said we need to run more and do it better. Yet, in 2021 we jettisoned our run more / run better capable OC in favor of Waldron, who couldnt run (or call a coherent game), and now has been followed by Grubb, who (also coming from a pass based program) is seemengly equally incapable of putting together a competent run game strategy.
What does that mean for our immediate future? At best, we have an uphill battle to do anything meaningful this year if we are insistant on relying on a pass game to win for us. It says pretty clearly that defenses have adjusted to stop the pass, and offenses have shifted to exploit the run.
We are throwing right into the strength of today's NFL defenses. You could make the argument that maybe staying the course will pay dividends as defenses in the coming years continue to shift toward more run based schemes and profiles for players. But is that really sustainable?
JS said last offseason that the trend in the league is shifting back to hard nosed offense and that he wanted to be a team that could pound the ball on the ground.
If thats what he wanted, what we have certainly isnt it.
What we have is a system that, if you look at trends, isnt likely to succeed if its going to rely on a QB to carry a team to success - not because that player isnt capable, but rather because its likely not possible.
