"Clayton claims he's "baffled" by Wilson contract talks"

[SeahawkPQ]

If he stays the same or worse then honestly.....maybe it would be time to move on.

Username/post combo.

I know...but if he doesnt improve with having Graham and more help around him..then honestly...can we realistically give him 23+ mil or so a year. Hes good...very good...and my favorite player but this year is truly a prove it year for him since he FINALLY has a legit weapon in Graham and I believe Tyler L will have a huge impact too. Also once healthy I am looking forward to having Prich back. He seemed to be getting really good towards the end of the year.

Hahaha, a prove it year? As if he hasn't already proven his value.

The fact that so many people are moralizing about a man trying to capitalize on his market value is disheartening. The Seahawks have been milking him way below his value thanks to a ridiculous anti-market system set up by veteran players and the owners, each who think only of themselves. He should get every penny he can.

But hey, maybe Matt Flynn will be available if he walks.

 

[Anonymous]

"...if he walks."

Heh, heh...

:roll:

Welcome to Seahawks.NET!

 

[edogg23]

2. Wilson wants the Seahawks to completely tear up the last year of his current contract and start with 20+ million APY THIS year (and that would be a cap disaster). Not only that, but virtually no NFL team does that for anyone. You tack onto existing contracts for cap relief if nothing else (even Rodgers did this).

Wilson and his agent aren't dingbats, they know that if they tried to play that card, the FO could just give them the finger and wait until 2016 to reopen talks (after paying Wilson 1.5 million in 2015) and that would be that. And if they really were asking for such a thing, it's basically impossible with Seattle's current cap space, and they'd know that, so asking for it would just be their polite way of saying "we would rather sign a deal next year right after Andrew Luck signs his megadeal."

It's really obvious to me that Wilson's agent is insistent on signing Wilson after Luck gets his deal, and since Luck won't get a deal until next year...

Luck's signing is going to blow QB money out of the water. It seems to have been forgotten in this thread, but many GMs around the league predicted that Wilson would get $25 million AYP on his deal mainly because that's what Luck would have gotten. Luck has been pushed a year back, but that doesn't mean that Wilson should just settle for ~$21 million right now when he knows he can get 20% more than that by waiting one year.

This is off-topic, but why does Luck want a deal that is going to kill his team when he seems to care little about money? He wears crappy clothes and drives a crappy car. He seems to care about football way more than material things. Maybe I am way off base on my assessment of him.

 

[brimsalabim]

The signing bonus must be the key. Otherwise what are the Hawks offering to pay Russell this season? The link I posted above says 41st QB pay.

I believe John Clayton reported the Seahawks' offer to be worth $69 million in the first three years, which is more than Newton or Rodgers received in the first three years of their extensions.

That would equate to around $30 million in signing bonus, all of which he could receive this year, plus another $39 million in combined salary in 2016 and 2017. Cap hit in 2016 would be a manageable $7.5 million, while the cap hits in 2016 and 2017 would average out to $25.5 million per year.

The only way you can get to $69 million in new money in the first three years is with a pretty large signing bonus. It might be worth even more than $30 million now that I think about it, which would keep the cap hit a little lower in 2016 and 2017. For example, with a $40 million signing bonus, the cap hits in 2016 and 2017 would average out to only $22.5 million per year. Though I don't think we have room for another $8 million cap hit in 2015 without releasing someone.

For those reasons, I am guessing the signing bonus offer is worth between $30-40 million, per Clayton's figure of $69 million over three years.

This is not how I understood the offer. It was my understanding that "the first three years" begins in 2016 with the current offer leaving Russell making less than half the long snappers in the league for 2015.

 

[Tical21]

2. Wilson wants the Seahawks to completely tear up the last year of his current contract and start with 20+ million APY THIS year (and that would be a cap disaster). Not only that, but virtually no NFL team does that for anyone. You tack onto existing contracts for cap relief if nothing else (even Rodgers did this).

Wilson and his agent aren't dingbats, they know that if they tried to play that card, the FO could just give them the finger and wait until 2016 to reopen talks (after paying Wilson 1.5 million in 2015) and that would be that. And if they really were asking for such a thing, it's basically impossible with Seattle's current cap space, and they'd know that, so asking for it would just be their polite way of saying "we would rather sign a deal next year right after Andrew Luck signs his megadeal."

It's really obvious to me that Wilson's agent is insistent on signing Wilson after Luck gets his deal, and since Luck won't get a deal until next year...

Luck's signing is going to blow QB money out of the water. It seems to have been forgotten in this thread, but many GMs around the league predicted that Wilson would get $25 million AYP on his deal mainly because that's what Luck would have gotten. Luck has been pushed a year back, but that doesn't mean that Wilson should just settle for ~$21 million right now when he knows he can get 20% more than that by waiting one year.

This is off-topic, but why does Luck want a deal that is going to kill his team when he seems to care little about money? He wears crappy clothes and drives a crappy car. He seems to care about football way more than material things. Maybe I am way off base on my assessment of him.

I agree with you. I don't think Luck is going to accept a crippling contract. That guy is a complete football nerd. Then again, so is Peyton, and Peyton has taken some very large contracts.

 

[Tical21]

Kaepernick specifically asked, "So this structure gives us room to try extensions with my teammates, right?"

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/colin-kaep ... d=24000098

One of the few admirable things I can recall Kaepernick doing was the team friendly, six-year extension he agreed to with the Niners. Although, I do think he went a little too team friendly in terms of the lack of signing bonus and other guarantees. The Niners can essentially cut bait with him any time they want.

Do you think he's elite? Does Marvin? Yeah, I'm confident in saying no. Hence his dumbass contact. Russell Wilson deserves his money so start dealing with it or go back to irrelevance. Simple equation isn't it?

The man is just as good as Andrew Luck and the statistics prove it without argument even going back to college. And he has something Luck has never shown.He wins.No matter the circumstances he wins.

This is a bit unfair, no? Luck has better WR's than Wilson, and perhaps a bit better O-line, but that is about it. Don't you think he would have won at least one Super Bowl with our roster?

 

[Ad Hawk]

Kaepernick specifically asked, "So this structure gives us room to try extensions with my teammates, right?"

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/colin-kaep ... d=24000098

One of the few admirable things I can recall Kaepernick doing was the team friendly, six-year extension he agreed to with the Niners. Although, I do think he went a little too team friendly in terms of the lack of signing bonus and other guarantees. The Niners can essentially cut bait with him any time they want.

Do you think he's elite? Does Marvin? Yeah, I'm confident in saying no. Hence his dumbass contact. Russell Wilson deserves his money so start dealing with it or go back to irrelevance. Simple equation isn't it?

The man is just as good as Andrew Luck and the statistics prove it without argument even going back to college. And he has something Luck has never shown.He wins.No matter the circumstances he wins.

This is a bit unfair, no? Luck has better WR's than Wilson, and perhaps a bit better O-line, but that is about it. Don't you think he would have won at least one Super Bowl with our roster?

With our generally porous pass-blocking O-line, Luck would still be in traction and/or rehab. He's mobile, but he's not RW, who escaped a pounding any number of times by only a hairs' breadth (some due to his smallish stature), and even then was sacked far too often.

But just maybe Luck's style would have kept some of those pressure situations from ever developing. The offense systems and QBs are quite different.

 

[DavidSeven]

The run game is better with Wilson than it would be with Luck. Read option opened up everything for this team. So, I don't necessarily think it's fair to say this team would look the same or be just as successful with Luck. Granted, Luck might use the receivers a little better -- could probably have gotten Baldwin and Tate to 1,000 yards apiece in 2013 even in a run heavy system. Probably a lot more turnovers too though.

 

[Spin Doctor]

The run game is better with Wilson than it would be with Luck. Read option opened up everything for this team. So, I don't necessarily think it's fair to say this team would look the same or be just as successful with Luck. Granted, Luck might use the receivers a little better -- could probably have gotten Baldwin and Tate to 1,000 yards apiece in 2013 even in a run heavy system. Probably a lot more turnovers too though.

The offense would look different with Luck, I think he would ultimately have comparable results. One has to remember that the Colts pretty much live and die by Luck's arm. That is not the case with the Seahawks, if Wilson has a rough game, or unproductive game, generally the defense or running game can pick up the slack. Luck does not necessarily have that advantage. Luck also plays behind a pretty poor line, and he has a poor running game.

On the Seahawks his stats would be similar IMO, though I think he would have more passing yards than Wilson, and less rushing yards. I do have the feeling that our passing game would be more consistent while conversely the rushing game would be less effective.

 

[sumos2005]

The Luck vs Wilson saga continues.....Guys, it's PRETTY SIMPLE. I hope you football guru's can agree and associate with this.

ON this Seattle team, Luck would have more TD passes than Russ but also many more turnovers...Maybe 30 TD 16 Int I am guessing. So is it worth more to you to watch Luck throw a TD every now and then BUT ALSO throw another pick?? Luck will try and force that post route between 2 defenders before Russ would (Luck may succeed, or he may fail in that attempt)

OR Watch Russ be more conservative and pull it down and run for 6 yards. I will let you guys make your own determination on that...

 

[hawknation2015]

When Luck was at Stanford, he was not known to be a gunslinger. Under Harbaugh, they ran a ball-control, I-formation offense, similar to what Russell ran at Wisconsin. If Luck were a Seahawk, I doubt Carroll would suddenly change his entire offensive philosophy to throwing the ball 40 times per game. Thus, Luck would probably have very similar stats to what Wilson has now.

Luck at Stanford in 2011:
288/404, 71.3%, 3517 yards, 8.7 yards/attempt, 37 TDs, 10 INTs, 169.7 QB rating

Russell at Wisconsin in 2011:
225/309, 72.8%, 3175 yards, 10.3yards/attempt, 33 TDs, 4 INTs, 191.8 QB rating

 

[Popeyejones]

Thus, Luck would probably have very similar stats to what Wilson has now.

Agreed. I think the only difference is that we've all seen Luck develop as a QB*, and now know that he can do both of these things.

Because of the offense he's been playing in If Wilson can do what Luck now does remains a 120 million dollar question.


*FWIW I thought Luck was insanely overrated when he came in, but have been very impressed by his development and think he has gotten much, much, much closer to building himself into the guy everyone has insisted he already was. At this point I think Luck's floor is around Brett Favre, whereas his ceiling is up around Aaron Rodgers. I think Wilson has the same ceiling, but his floor is still closer to Alex Smith.

 

[hawknation2015]

I think Wilson has the same ceiling, but his floor is still closer to Alex Smith.

If one in one fell swoop, you made me remember you're a 49er fan. :34853_doh:

 

[Popeyejones]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Sorry.

If Wilson is just fully formed, doesn't develop at all, and starts slowing down with age, hate to say it, but you're basically talking Alex Smith.

Not that I personally think this will happen (I don't), but that's the floor we're talking about, IMO (a guy who can have success, but needs a very limited and specific system to do it in).

If it makes you feel any better I think Kaepernick's absolute floor is still lower than that.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Krappersnack and Alex Smith are not even close to Wilson. :roll:

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^^ I don't know if you're deliberately misreading what I wrote or doing so accidentally, so I don't really know how to respond.

Sorry.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I know, I was just making a bad attempt at humor :th2thumbs:

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^^ Or I just wasn't getting the joke cuz I can never be too sure posting in enemy territory. :lol:

:th2thumbs:

 

[rideaducati]

Thus, Luck would probably have very similar stats to what Wilson has now.

Agreed. I think the only difference is that we've all seen Luck develop as a QB*, and now know that he can do both of these things.

Because of the offense he's been playing in If Wilson can do what Luck now does remains a 120 million dollar question.


*FWIW I thought Luck was insanely overrated when he came in, but have been very impressed by his development and think he has gotten much, much, much closer to building himself into the guy everyone has insisted he already was. At this point I think Luck's floor is around Brett Favre, whereas his ceiling is up around Aaron Rodgers. I think Wilson has the same ceiling, but his floor is still closer to Alex Smith.

If you meant to say Alex Smith's ceiling is Russell Wilson's floor, that's already obvious.

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^ Yeah, I thought it was -- or, I intended for it to be -- pretty clear that this is what I meant.

Oh, I guess someone somehow could have thought I was implying that Alex Smith isn't who he is yet and still has a higher ceiling, which yeah, I definitely wasn't trying to imply. At this point Alex Smith is 31 and has a full decade of starting QB experience in the NFL under his belt. He very much just is who he is at this point, IMO.