Carroll said "doubting fans need to “do their homework”

[RolandDeschain]

Say whatever you want, you just keep on digging boy. You can never convince me otherwise. You can say "you clearly dont understand football very well." And I can now counter always with "Time of possession is the most meaningless statistic in football." You lose all credibility. You have been exposed. Nothing you can say can redeem it.

Well...You could say you were wrong.... but when pigs fly, right?

You're the one proving yourself in a bad way to the people of the board in trumpeting time of possession. If you were correct, we'd have like a 48 minute ToP in the 58-0 curb stomping of Arizona last year, but nope, we had 34:27.

Hey, guess what? Our ToP @ Buffalo last year was 28:57. CRAP, WE LOST THAT GAME! Wait, no we didn't, we thoroughly trounced them across the board. Oops.

Hey, guess what? Our ToP @ Miami last year was 31:59. WE WON THE GAME, YAY!!!!!! Wait, no we didn't, we lost. Oops.

ToP literally means nothing. It's wrong almost half the time in terms of telling you who won the game. Sure, your goal is to force a 3-and-out on defense every single time the enemy offense takes the field and for you to sustain long drives every offensive possession that result in TDs, but football simply does not work that way, and it never will.

Keep drinking your ToP Kool-Aid, broski. It's a WORTHLESS stat. You could throw a long touchdown bomb every drive for a TD and have a 15 minute ToP in a game you won 70-3. Dramatic example, but hopefully by now, you get the point. The ToP stat might as well be a damned coin flip.

 

[MOCHawk]

Educate those brains, don't just sit there are take the word of fat color commentators who used to push around under-sized defensive linemen:

http://tydobbs.wordpress.com/2012/1...ssion-is-the-most-overrated-stat-in-football/

http://blogs.mcall.com/eagles/2013/08/kelly-is-right-time-of-possession-is-overrated.html

http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Possession-time-is-overrated-2801155.php

 

[Cartire]

Say whatever you want, you just keep on digging boy. You can never convince me otherwise. You can say "you clearly dont understand football very well." And I can now counter always with "Time of possession is the most meaningless statistic in football." You lose all credibility. You have been exposed. Nothing you can say can redeem it.

Well...You could say you were wrong.... but when pigs fly, right?

You're the one proving yourself in a bad way to the people of the board in trumpeting time of possession. If you were correct, we'd have like a 48 minute ToP in the 58-0 curb stomping of Arizona last year, but nope, we had 34:27.

Hey, guess what? Our ToP @ Buffalo last year was 28:57. CRAP, WE LOST THAT GAME! Wait, no we didn't, we thoroughly trounced them across the board. Oops.

Hey, guess what? Our ToP @ Miami last year was 31:59. WE WON THE GAME, YAY!!!!!! Wait, no we didn't, we lost. Oops.

ToP literally means nothing. It's wrong almost half the time in terms of telling you who won the game. Sure, your goal is to force a 3-and-out on defense every single time the enemy offense takes the field and for you to sustain long drives every offensive possession that result in TDs, but football simply does not work that way, and it never will.

Keep drinking your ToP Kool-Aid, broski. It's a WORTHLESS stat. You could throw a long touchdown bomb every drive for a TD and have a 15 minute ToP in a game you won 70-3. Dramatic example, but hopefully by now, you get the point. The ToP stat might as well be a damned coin flip.

did you just correlate 2 minute swings to prove your point? WoW..... WoW.........

Stop being so hyperbolic. You have zero spetrum for anything. Its either the end-all defecto or the worse possible thing. There is no middle ground with you. TOP is far, FAR, FAAAAAAAAAR from the most meaningless stat. And, why dont you look at teams that had a 10 minute differential, and come back to me with the W-L record.

you know what else is weird. Before, in the long long ago, sometimes teams win things even with inferior statistics. I mean your beloved DVOA (I like it too), had us as locks to win it all. But its just weird, because we didnt. Because, you know, variables, and changing dynamics, and you know, human involvement.....

TOP is a great indicator of which team controlled the clock. A team that kept the opposing teams defense on the field (further preventing the opposing offense from being on the field). Why do you think coaches almost always mention TOP in their pressers?

Would you stop being so wrong for once, or at least admit that you are. TOP is not the end all stat, but its not meaningless, at all.

 

[thebanjodude]

The statistical significance of TOP really depends on the identity of your team, IMO.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Cartire, read the links MOCHawk thoughtfully provided, realize you are wrong on this subject, admit it, and move on.

 

[Hawknight]

Interesting opinion of ToP:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09 ... ssion.html

 

[Scottemojo]

Are we allowed to be happy about how the team is performing overall in spite of numerous key injuries while conceding there are areas of possible improvement like there are with every NFL team?

Be fair. I logged onto .NET and the threads up front were :Would we have won if Locker played? Judging on how we played, can we win on Thursday? Disapointing subpar performance today.

The worst part? Some of those same threads were in the game day forum, which is where emo reactions belong. But some felt the need to have the thread in two places.

Then the be happy crowd weighed in. I don't believe in being 5-1 any more than I believe the team is in trouble even if we don't get home field advantage. Frankly, I don't believe in sweeping generalities. Beastquake pisses on your generalities.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion. But if your opinion is not rooted in fact, I expect it to be destroyed as it should be. I am ecstatic about the win. I also think with about 3 different choices on offense, the score is 31-6. Toss in the pick 6 Thurmond couldn't get his hands on, and we are talking blowout.

The ghost of 150, the fear we are not good enough to get HFA, and dummies betting on the over is stuff beyond my control. I try to stick to what I actually saw.

 

[Cartire]

Cartire, read the links MOCHawk thoughtfully provided, realize you are wrong on this subject, admit it, and move on.

read the three blogs (key word there) and admit im wrong? There is plenty of Rolands in the world, that doesnt make Rolands right.

 

[Cartire]

and one more thing. Stats are not end all. TOP doesnt mean you win, so stop with the hyperbole. Its an indicator and a good one. But you can give me any statistic you want, and Ill show you a game where the person/team with the better stat that game lost. So stop with that nonsense.

 

[Sarlacc83]

Educate those brains, don't just sit there are take the word of fat color commentators who used to push around under-sized defensive linemen:

http://tydobbs.wordpress.com/2012/1...ssion-is-the-most-overrated-stat-in-football/

http://blogs.mcall.com/eagles/2013/08/kelly-is-right-time-of-possession-is-overrated.html

http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Possession-time-is-overrated-2801155.php

What's the Eagles record this year? 3-3 with those 3 wins coming against teams with a combined 1-15 record? I agree that plays run is more meaningful, but in the NFL, TOP matters. Especially when you're playing against a team like the Broncos (who blew out the Eagles because they kept getting the ball back.)

 

[kearly]

My homework says we almost lost at home to Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Ah, good to see the 2011 Montana back.

Am I wrong?

Well, uh, we did outgain them 2 to 1 you know. 400+ yards of total offense against a defense that was top 10 entering the contest.

Alright alright, I'll quit being a smartass for a second. Bottom line, we all know it should have been a 17 point win and Scott makes the case it very nearly could have been more than that.

The offense isn't what it could be, but it's still a good offense despite some glaring issues.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Even the 2007 Patriots, currently the most prolific offense in a season in the history of football, "lost" the ToP "battle" in five of their regular season games.

but in the NFL, TOP matters.

Big plays on offense, defense, AND special teams all combine to throw ToP off wildly.

 

[HansGruber]

The Time of Possession argument got me thinking. I'm a science nerd, and we like numbers and hard evidence. So I looked up the stats, and here's how the Time of Possession battle worked out in Week 6:


15 games were played. 10 of those games were won by the team with the highest time of possession.

Which means that 66% of the winners also won the time of possession battle.

The following games were not won by the best time of possesion:
Rams - Texans
Chiefs - Raiders
Eagles - Bucs
Redskins - Cowboys
Broncos - Jaguars

I noticed a few interesting trends while checking out those games.

1) The time of possession is actually pretty close in most of them.
2) The Cowboys, Broncos, Chiefs and Rams were scoring quickly and putting up a lot of yards and points - they were blowouts.
3) Points were coming from a variety of sources - offense, special teams and defense for the winners.
4) Winners with lower TOP had multiple turnovers in a few games.

That's a quick take of Week 6, but it definitely does not favor the argument that Time of Possession is meaningless. In fact, it would suggest that you could reliably predict the outcame of a game based on time of possession. The only noticeable and consistent exception seems to be in the case where one team is able to score quickly and easily, leaving the other team's offense on the field for the majority of the game (trying to catch up).

 

[Sarlacc83]

Even the 2007 Patriots, currently the most prolific offense in a season in the history of football, "lost" the ToP "battle" in five of their regular season games.

but in the NFL, TOP matters.

Big plays on offense, defense, AND special teams all combine to throw ToP off wildly.

Notice that the 2007 Patriots had a season TOP of 32:27, negating your first comment.

As to your second: Duh. It still averages out.

 

[Smelly McUgly]

It's basically what Sac said that no one mentioned. TOP doesn't mean anything on its own. "Being good" at TOP is for one of a few reasons, such as these:

- Dominant defense that gets the ball back really quick.

- Offense that has a grind-it-out style.

Gee, guess what we have? No wonder we tend to have our TOP domination correlate with the games that we win. It indicates that we are good at these things/have these strategies. We run the ball more than anyone else in the league and we do it well, so of course we aren't stopping the clock as we grind out our first downs as much.

TOP is a factor of other elements, not an element in and of itself.

 

[RolandDeschain]

All it takes is one big play to throw off ToP. How many NFL games each week have at least one big play? What, all of them? Oh, gee.

Hans, some weeks also have MOST winning teams losing ToP. Look up each week for an entire year, if you want.

 

[Sarlacc83]

All it takes is one big play to throw off ToP. How many NFL games each week have at least one big play? What, all of them? Oh, gee.

Hans, some weeks also have MOST winning teams losing ToP. Look up each week for an entire year, if you want.

So, what you're saying is that teams still have a higher ToP even though they have big plays? Do you not understand averages?

This year, 6 of the top 10 teams in ToP have winning records. Of those 1 is undefeated (KC), and 3 are 5-1 (Patriots, Seahawks, Saints.)

 

[KARAVARUS]

404 yards to 223, won TOP, 24 first downs to 13. The score doesn't reflect domination. I believe you know all of this, but my counter point was that you said "regardless of the score", which now you seem to be picking up like an erroneous flag with the "we only scored two touchdowns" thing.

Aside of this, if you are expecting to outgain an opponent by more than 200 yards every game or you're let down, then perhaps my definition of domination isn't what truly needs looked at.

Time of possession is the most meaningless statistic in football. Yards is not worth much, either. The Seahawks have won plenty of games while losing both the time of possession "battle" and by having way fewer yards than their opponent in the last year-and-a-half.

So what we're saying is the score determines domination. Okay, I just wish you didn't say it didn't earlier. We could have avoided all this.

 

[rjas77]

TOP is the most meaningless statistic in football.......? You just said that. You just said, TOP is the most meaningless statistic in football. In fact, Im going to copy it again, even thought I have typed it here twice.

Time of possession is the most meaningless statistic in football.

TOP was a major, MAJOR, factor in why the Colts lost last night. Besides the obvious reason being, if your offense isnt on the field, they cant score. The other factor being, the longer your defense is out there, the harder it is for them to stop the other team.

Im adding it to my signature now.

It's clear that you don't understand football very well. The goal is to have your offense with the ball most of the time, more than the other team. Yes. However, the team with more time of possession at the end of each game only wins a little more than HALF OF THE TIME. It's almost like flipping a damned coin. It doesn't MEAN anything. Seriously, pick a week in the NFL and I will show you that at least 40% of all the games, the losing team "won" the time of possession "battle".

I disagree...The goal is to score more points than your opponent. Usually that means controlling the ball more than your opponent, but even then that's not always the case. You can often have TOP in your favor and still lose...you will never lose if you score more than the other team

 

[Scottemojo]

TOP is like any stat, context is key.

Pete wants to limit the other teams total number of snaps and play efficient offense. TOP matters to him. In every single 4th quarter this year where Seattle has had the lead, they have not given back the ball to the other team in the 2 minutes to go. Control the clock (Ask the Saints if they wish they could do this).
Belichick isn't as concerned with efficiency as he is with getting extra bites at the apple. TOP is not as important to him. 90 snaps is more important.