JSN's 5th year option is currently projected at around 25 million, assuming he makes the pro bowl this year. If there are any big free agent signings between now and next May, that number could go up slightly.
Currently, the franchise tag for 2026 sits at 28 million (2027 projections aren't out yet). This will increase significantly with the signing of players like Pickens, Evans, London, Nacua... Let's put the 2027 number at a reasonable 32 million.
That means you pay cap hits of 5 million, plus 25 million, plus 32 million, a total of 62 million, for three years of control, then sign him at the market rate, which will likely be north of 45 million, at that point. This would yield a 5-year cost north of 152 million.
Or, you extend him for four years of 36 APY, in the offseason giving you a five-year cost of 149 million, at an effective cap hit of 29.8 APY.
Not a huge difference in total cost, but you protect yourself from the inevitable increases in cap and contract value.
Around 40% of extended wide receivers produce more after signing a big extension, about 40% see a reduction in output, and about 20% stay roughly the same, so you are looking at a 60% chance of having the same or better output.
JSN does not seem like the kind of ego to give up on his craft, after hitting a payday, but it is a gamble. However, it is a gamble you can somewhat protect against, with contract structure.
