Are we in the Worst Case Scenario?

[olyfan63]

Penny last year down the stretch was amazing. But here is the dirty little secret on him. He did it against soft boxes. 80+% of his runs came against a soft box. Teams were playing a 2 high shell to stop Russ from beating them deep. Daring the Seahawks to run. Penny did, and did it well indeed.

Wasn't it awesome to have an OC like Waldron that game-planned to run teams out of a 2-High shell, Russell's Kryptonite, so we'd start getting the single-high looks Russell can actually read and succeed against? And also awesome to have an O-Line and a back that could exploit the soft box? I call that good, smart football and good game-planning.

 

[olyfan63]

No, not worst case scenario at all. Pete & John will bring in some studs on the D side.

If Drew Lock can pull off a peak Case Keenum year, like the Minnesota Miracle year, we could even be in the NFCCG. Probability? Not good. Fun to think about? Yes.

 

[jammerhawk]

I think that could be wishful thinking.

 

[Grahamhawker]

Kind of a minor point, but just curious if you can reveal the source of this claim.

For an anecdotal example, every local Safeway store used to have a sizable Hawk merch mini-department. Now they have a rack next to equal sized Sounders, M's, and Kraken racks. Local thrift stores are stocked with tons of Seahawk gear, which was a rare find even 5 years ago.

 

[Tusc2000]

Yes. Absentee ownership. Jody handed the keys to Carroll when he got his 5 year extension.

Most of the fanbase is done with Pete's act. And the Kool-Aid drinkers :179422: will come around very soon (give it a season or two.)

But here is the scary thing. Jody might not care, and just trust in Pete and continue to allow him run the franchise into the ground. It's spooky to see how many, though they are a vocal minority to be sure, are excited to return to what it was like in the 90's with the Seahawks. Growing up in the PNW I was literally the only Seahawks fan in my school. It's unreal to see the hankering to go back to that.

2022: We just traded Wilson! Gotta give it some time!

2023: We just drafted a QB! Gotta give it some time!

2024: It's his first full year starting! Gotta give it some time!

2025: He got injured! Wait 'til next year!

2026: This is the year! Put up or shut up!

2027 is the earliest I expect to see any actual change. Could be longer. Draft a QB this year it could move the timeline up 1 year, big whoop.

2027: Pete signs new 5-year contract extension, says he looks forward to one day becoming the first 80-year-old Head Coach in NFL history.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I don't think anything could be worse than it is right now.

Let me take you on a tour of 1996 for worst case scenario.

Dark days: 10 years ago, the Seahawks nearly moved to California

Players did their offseason workouts at the Rams' old facility in Anaheim.

www.seattlepi.com

This? This doesn't even register on the worst case scenario radar.

- engaged ownership
- highly experienced and successful GM and coach
- beautiful facilities
- passionate fanbase

I swear some of you guys either weren't around or don't remember how bad this organization used to be if you think these are bad times.

 

[Hawknight]

Compare this team now to the team back in 1992 and let me know.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Are you trying to imply you believe we have a better roster now than the 1992 team? Normalized against the other teams in the league then and now?

That was probably as good a roster, if not better, they just had a terrible QB and coach.

It would take some doing to have as terrible a QB, and as bad a coach as I think Carroll now has become - he won't be that bad. But the roster on that 1992 team was decent, the defense might have even been very good to exceptional.

 

[QuahHawk]

Yes. Absentee ownership. Jody handed the keys to Carroll when he got his 5 year extension.

Most of the fanbase is done with Pete's act. And the Kool-Aid drinkers :179422: will come around very soon (give it a season or two.)

But here is the scary thing. Jody might not care, and just trust in Pete and continue to allow him run the franchise into the ground. It's spooky to see how many, though they are a vocal minority to be sure, are excited to return to what it was like in the 90's with the Seahawks. Growing up in the PNW I was literally the only Seahawks fan in my school. It's unreal to see the hankering to go back to that.

2022: We just traded Wilson! Gotta give it some time!

2023: We just drafted a QB! Gotta give it some time!

2024: It's his first full year starting! Gotta give it some time!

2025: He got injured! Wait 'til next year!

2026: This is the year! Put up or shut up!

2027 is the earliest I expect to see any actual change. Could be longer. Draft a QB this year it could move the timeline up 1 year, big whoop.

If we don't get in the Playoffs in 22, 23, or 24. Pete is out. We will draft a QB this year. So we will have Lock and a Rookie while we build a top 3 Defense and a top 5 running game.

 

[chris98251]

If we don't get in the Playoffs in 22, 23, or 24. Pete is out. We will draft a QB this year. So we will have Lock and a Rookie while we build a top 3 Defense and a top 5 running game.

Why would we draft a QB if we don't see one we like, also we will trade back, we used FA to sign QB's till we got Wilson in the 3RD round, John doesn't like using high profile positions in high rounds because of the cost and second contracts.

 

[TwistedHusky]

That is pretty optimistic.

The bigger question is whether having a top 5 run game matters much anymore. Having a terrible run game is an impediment, but the rules favor teams that throw the ball now. Just as it does not really look like being a top run stopping team matters much at all now, just don't be terrible stopping the run and you will be fine (or be terrible, like the Rams and still win a SB)

As the NFL continues to feel that building QBs into stars, marketing them, and using their success to determine how teams succeed themselves - it does not feel like there will be rule changes to de-emphasize the QB.

Which means passing and stopping the pass are going to continue to be harbingers of success. With more mobile QBs, you can even pour less money into OLs (as Seahawk fans are painfully aware of).

So would a team with a top 3 Defense and top 5 run game but average QB even do anything in the playoffs?

You could point to the Rams, who have a fantastic defense, a very good but not elite QB (but all the surrounding talent for the passing game). So maybe you don't need elite QB play - you need a tremendously good QB and phenomenal D to mount that approach.

But a top 3 defense and top 5 run game with an average QB probably makes you closer to the Titans than the Rams.




(Now 'what works to win a championship' changes. I get that.

It was not long ago that NBA teams that shoot too many 3s, could never win a championship because in the playoffs things slowed down and those missed 3s turn into long rebounds + fast breaks. Ostensibly. Then the Warriors made it look like you HAD to shoot 3s to be successful.

It wasn't long ago that the key to success in the NFL playoffs was great lines. Dallas won 4 SBs that way. But those are all symptoms of rules changing.)

 

[Hawknight]

Are you trying to imply you believe we have a better roster now than the 1992 team? Normalized against the other teams in the league then and now?

That was probably as good a roster, if not better, they just had a terrible QB and coach.

It would take some doing to have as terrible a QB, and as bad a coach as I think Carroll now has become - he won't be that bad. But the roster on that 1992 team was decent, the defense might have even been very good to exceptional.

Heck no, with Cortez and Robinson, just to name a few on that roster. Nope just a season comparison overall. This season hasn't played out yet, but with Russ pulling the rug out, it's off to a fairly good start for a worst case scenario.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I think this off season showed that Jody Allen isn't an "absentee owner."

All reports, and subsequent shake up all up and down the organization and roster shows that she has demanded better.

Now is she a good owner? That question remains to be answered. But absentee? No. That misnomer been put to rest.

 

[xray]

During his life in football from high school , college , and the pros ; Lock always had the number 3 . Did he or the Hawks change it to 2 out of reverence to " Mr. Unlimited " ?

 

[Hawknight]

During his life in football from high school , college , and the pros ; Lock always had the number 3 . Did he or the Hawks change it to 2 out of reverence to " Mr. Unlimited " ?

I believe Lock said out of respect for what Wilson has done for this team. However, if by slight chance Lock had kept #3 and by some twilight zone chance had a career equal to Wilson, it would make it awkward to retire two players to same # jersey.

 

[chris98251]

I think following a player like Wilson you are in a lose lose situation, the #2 is to distance himself from the identity of Wilson, then again the number 2 represents a lot of bad things also.......

I would have looked for a different option, 13 maybe.

 

[scutterhawk]

I'm going to agree with 2027.

It isn't enough to fail.

They have to fail enough that people stop buying tickets and merch.

That will take a few years. Merch sales are already tanking but tickets will sell as long as people have excuses for him.

The worst case is when he leaves, we are stuck with tons of dead money, and we have few draft picks to rebuild with.

Because you cannot attract a good coach to replace him with if you don't have anything that coach can build with.

So not only will Carroll be gone, but we will be a 3rd tier option for available coaches (if not worse).

That gives you the choice between an unproven guy that isn't an up & comer, or a retread. Based on her decision with Carroll, Jodie is probably going to pick a retread.

This means the next guy likely fails too.

And we won't just need a coach but a GM. Good luck getting lucky replacing both.

The drought timer STARTS in 2027, who knows how many coaches and GMs it will take to emerge from it though.

So hmm, you're checking out now to avoid the rush?
Pete & Co. has already built a winning system and brought the Lombardi to Seattle...That's what I call PROOF.
And the thanks he gets for keeping the Seahawks in the conversation for the last decade, is badmouthing from people WHO >ARE NOT EXPERTS<.

 

[TreeRon]

Let me take you on a tour of 1996 for worst case scenario.

Dark days: 10 years ago, the Seahawks nearly moved to California

Players did their offseason workouts at the Rams' old facility in Anaheim.

www.seattlepi.com

This? This doesn't even register on the worst case scenario radar.

- engaged ownership
- highly experienced and successful GM and coach
- beautiful facilities
- passionate fanbase

I swear some of you guys either weren't around or don't remember how bad this organization used to be if you think these are bad times.

Yes, it could be worse.

 

[BASF]

It is without a doubt the most fascinating thing seeing otherwise intelligent posters that are all about appeasing Wilson who is all about getting as much money as he can (he will want at least $51M) on his next contract when he was unwilling to run the offense as designed. We have already seen that the offense from McVay's tree works with a good QB, and Wilson stopped running it after the first game. The truth is that he has been running the same route tree since his NC State games. He is the ultimate me first player. I don't know why it got so far, but the minute he started talking about his legacy, he checked out of winning with the Seahawks.

I have a slew of complaints about Pete Carroll, but some of you who are hung up on this are beyond gone. Like soul says, rent free, but he is talking about the wrong person. Some of you are obviously fans since Beastquake and it shows.

 

[Fade]

Wasn't it awesome to have an OC like Waldron that game-planned to run teams out of a 2-High shell, Russell's Kryptonite, so we'd start getting the single-high looks Russell can actually read and succeed against? And also awesome to have an O-Line and a back that could exploit the soft box? I call that good, smart football and good game-planning.

Without Wilson to put the fear of God into DCs, unfortunately teams are going to now stack the box where Penny was pedestrian in those situations. Where they're at right now they are one of the worst offenses in football.